Are you sure that Peavy is that much better than Baker in the AL?
Originally Posted by striker_86
Career AL numbers:
Peavy: 3.93 ERA, 1.182 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, 3.51 K/BB
Baker: 4.15 ERA, 1.264 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, 3.44 K/BB
And Peavy's numbers were all prime career numbers where Baker's include some early career numbers, which make them look worse than Peavy's. Pretty much the same numbers in the AL in their prime years
Their career numbers mean little going into next year. Baker is not even a year removed from TJ surgery and Peavy is going to throw >200 IP.
Originally Posted by thrylos98
The last time Jake Peavy threw 200 innings was when he won the Cy Young... In 2007. He will break that mark again in his next start but let's not pretend that he's some kind of workhorse.
Amen! I'd say the odds of Baker throwing 150+ IP next year is about the same as Peavy.
Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp
As much as people want to get down on their knees for the almighty Jake Peavy all of a sudden, it should be noted that the White Sox have paid 48 million to him thus far for 417 IP of 4.18 ERA ball over three years...yeah... what a god damn workhorse he is!
In comparison the Twins have paid Pavano (who is considered a "meh" signing around these parts") 24 mil for 506 IP of 4.27 ERA ball over the same time period.
So is Peavy really the answer when Pavano has given you better numbers at 50% of the cost?
I'm not saying he is a workhorse or even that the Twins should sign him. My point is that quoting Baker's and Peavy's stats and then implying they are equal pitchers at this point because their statistics are equal is ridiculous. One has a TON of questions after not throwing a pitch in 2012 coming off of TJ surgery and the other has had a very successful season where he is going to pitch over 200 innings.
Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp
Oh, sure. We have no idea what to expect of Baker but we have a pretty good idea of what to expect from Peavy (150-200 IP, 4-ish ERA).
Originally Posted by Oxtung
The thing is that Baker's ceiling is also what we can expect from Peavy and Baker can be signed for about 1/10th the price. It's a risk but it's a good risk to take.
Great Discussion. Always appreciate Bonnes, Seth and Thrylos. Riverbrain made some good points as well. My humble opinion is that our division is so winable on a year to year basis that to think we need to undertake some 5-year rebuilding plan is foolish. We need starting pitching. Lots of other teams do as well. We will have to out-bid several teams to accomplish this.
I like the idea of offering Span as a centerpiece to acquire a good young pitcher. Maybe offer Span to the Nationals in a package for Detwiller and Lombo. Maybe to the Braves for Teherhan and make it a bigger deal and go after Prado. He could solve our 2B problem. Trading for a Josh Johnson or Brandon Morrow or James Shields should also be considered. (Once BJ Upton is gone, Rays may be in the market for a CF/Leadoff type guy. I think E. Jackson has proven he can pitch in the A.L If you trade for someone, sign someone like a Jackson or McCarthy and take a flyer on one other SP (not necessarily Baker, but that type of guy, you have a rotation that could compete in the A.L. Central and you simply move Revere to CF and the top of the order and play Parmalee in RF.
A deeper group of pitchers goes two ways. There will also be more teams losing pitching and in the market.
In this environment, I don't think it is as good for the Twins. with increased competition for free agent pitching, players will have more options. Why would they sign with the Twins? If the terms of the contract are the same, I think there would be at least 20 organizations that would be chosen over the Twins. It might be closer to 28. Objectively, how confident would you be in the Twins chances next year? How much confidence do you have in the pitching coach? the medical staff?
The only way the Twins can persuade them is by overpaying in terms of years or dollars. Doing so will give the Twins the increased risk of a bad contract.
The only way to avoid this is to let the market play out.
It will be frustrating. We will see pitchers sign with other teams. Someone will write that the Twins could have signed "Pitcher X" for 30 mil over 3 years. Why didn't they? They must be cheap. In truth, "Pitcher X" only signs with the Twins if they add a 4th year or 15%.
There is no easy way out of this hole. Giving bad contracts to decline phase pitchers could delay the turn around. I would stay out of the market until the end.
This is a fun discussion. I still think there is enough potential offense for next year to try to make a run.
I like Shields, Jackson, Grienke and others. Oakland might do their once every couple of years purge of pitchers via trade for prospects.
As far as the Twins having a hard time attracting free agents, I don't see that. Maybe it's because I love it here myself. We have a beautiful ball park, an above average core of non diva players (Mauer, Morneau, Willingham, Doumit), decent bullpen, great city and state, and attractive women (just ask Ricky Rubio).
The Twins didn't have difficulty in attracting Willingham and Doumit last offseason and both wanted to extend their contracts mid-season.
I don't think it will be that difficult to attract free agents. Obviously, the players like it here and after a horrible season last year, the Twins pulled down some decent bats on the market.
You can attract players, but the first stop is contract money and second is playing for a winner. 2-3-4 years or more. Or, you wait out and sign people to a one-year.
The Twins signed Willingham on December 15th. There will be guys willing to sign with the team if JR makes competitive offers. It shouldn't take extra years in most cases.
Originally Posted by Rosterman
I like Marcum, Shields, and Jackson(though less than the first 2). Guthrie would be good at the correct price 7 mil range. Pitching is always dicy and I would rather trade for younger arms(also a risk, but many small market clubs have excess pitching talent). If the Twins feel they can win this thing next year, they will need to sign or trade for 2 - 3 pitchers. I feel they could be further away from that, but if the front office feels that go for it. Both the Tigers and the White Sox are flawed ballclubs that have had (White Sox) better than expected years. Tigers will also need to change up pitching staff from contact back end to stuff back end(defense issues). That may need pitchers also. Prces are likely to be high, hope the Twins guess right
There's not a lot at the top (i.e. Grienke) but the Twins would never be in on top tier guys (or they shouldn't be); but the middle tiers are pretty fat, to the point where someone might fall into affordability. There's old guys like Loshe, Dempster, Millwood, Kuroda, Arroyo who will be attractive to competitors but the Twins will have no interest in. Whether it's Sanchez, Peavy, Marcum, or Jackson, I'd be pretty happy if the Twins signed any to a deal less than 10m per and less than three years. Add the possibility that Floyd, Haren, and Shields could also hit the market, the Twins might be able to pluck a mid-to-top of the rotation guy. One from the McCarthy, Blanton,Saunders, Villaneuva, Young group might be more realistic. And there's also the crazies/projects: Zambrano, Liriano, E-Santana, J-Sanchez, and Dice-K (ha).
In any case, there's far more out there than years past. The Twins have money to spend, and even if they don't compete, they should be in the business of acquiring assets.
Top Tier - Grienke
Old Tier - Dempster, Kuroda, Millwood, Lohse, Arroyo (Oswalt)
Option Tier - Shields, Floyd, Haren
(Twins affordability begins here-perhaps)
Second Tier - A-Sanchez, Peavy, Marcum, Jackson
Third Tier - McCarthy, Blanton, Saunders
Questions Tier - Chris Young, Villaneuva, Guthrie, Baker, Maholm (option)
Crazy Tier - Liriano, Zambrano, E-Santana, J-Sanchez, (Dice-K)
Nearly all of those guys are better than what the Twins have thrown out there four of five days.
with tampa wanting to trim payroll and open to trading shields... why not span to tampa?even if we threw in the 2 rejects from chicago hernadez and escober? then add a jackson and sanchez.....plus a pair of quality relievers and a middle infielder and we have a start to the 2013 season,for around 105.000,000
Originally Posted by Seth Stohs
You said it first!
Originally Posted by DAM DC Twins Fans