The Twins don't need to get a top 10 pitcher in here next year to turn the staff around. They added Pavano in 2009 and he wound up having a great, bounce back year after 3-4 consecutive mediocre seasons.
His presence led a staff that, by and large was pretty average at best, to some very good numbers in 2010. One guy with the right attitude, having a good season can make a huge difference, especially in this division.
It would be a huge mistake to dump 20 million dollars or more into one guy like Grienke or Peavy simply because they are the best of an average group of FA pitchers.
I agree and I disagree. With Marcum, Peavy, Jackson, and Sanchez all offering similar expected performance/money/years this offseason, now is the time to sign a guy to a 3-4 year deal at $10-13m per. Chances are you won't be able to repeat that signing next year (or the following year) because the fewer of those guys there are on the market, the higher the price is driven. It's going to be awhile until we see this many league-average or slightly above league-average guys in the same offseason. It'd be a shame for the Twins to pass on picking up one of them.
Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave
This team gave a 34 year old Pavano $8m a year over two years. They shouldn't balk at giving a guy aged 28-31 $11m a year over three or four years.
Top of the rotation, middle of the rotation, back end... Does it matter anymore?
It used to be the the top guy would get the ball on his day and back end guys would miss starts. Teams would use the all star break to get an extra start for a top guy. Other than the Tigers, teams don't do this anymore. The Twins don't. They did the opposite at the all star break to give Diamond a rest.
Somehow it would be good to get 10 WAR out of their starting pitchers next year. Does it matter if they get 2 WAR from 5 slots?
There are guys available that can be counted on for 2 WAR. It may cost 5 mil/1 WAR.
I think Baker is a guy that can provide 2 WAR over 2/3 a season. They can guarantee his spot by picking up the option or negotiating now.
Diamond or Deduno? Maybe with luck.
That still leaves two guys to find.
I should concede now that while during the season a front line pitcher no longer matters as much, it will matter in the playoffs. I hope we have such problems next year.
I agree of course, though I think Sanchez might be a little more because of his age.
Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp
I guess I'll play along . . . with myself.
Originally Posted by Shane Wahl
On the other end, they sign Edwin Jackson and Shaun Marcum for 2-3 years each and 8-12 million each. Cost range: 2/32 -- 3/72. (this is the option I prefer most).
On the other end they sign both Joe Saunders and Erik Bedard. Cost 1/10. (this is terrifyingly perhaps the most likely scenario)
For naysayers on spending say $60 million over three years for Jackson and Marcum:
It's a risk, but so was trotting out Pavano-Baker-Liriano-Blackburn-Marquis this year. What was that cost? Hint: more than $20 million. And it sucked. Jackson and Marcum at same cost have the potential to be very, very good at 1-2 in the rotation. And Blackburn and Morneau contracts expire after 2013 (and together cost almost $20 million themselves!).
If the naysaying is merely based on the fact that the Twins are unlikely to do it, that's fine. They would be stupid not to do it if they want to compete in the next three years and have those two in the rotation for the 2015 season when hopefully the youth movement comes in force.
Adding those two pitchers, not trading anyone in the offseason, re-signing Baker for a few million + incentives, paying arb to everyone except for Casilla, and the payroll basically doesn't change from 2012.