Why I have hope for the Twins in 2012
I hope this isn't an abuse of this forum -- I stand to gain very little, and only indirectly, from more pageviews on this -- but I thought people might be interested in my (free) article over at Baseball Prospectus today on why I think people are giving up on the Twins too readily, and why I still hold out some hope for 2012. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...rticleid=16164
When people have asked me, I've been giving my outlook in percentages. I think there's about a 40-50% chance that they're very bad again (let's say 50), and a 35% or so chance that they're improved and healthier enough to get back to mediocre, somewhere within a few of .500. But, that leaves a 15% chance that everyone is healthy, everything clicks back into place, and they're actually really good again--maybe not good enough to beat the Tigers, but enough to keep it interesting. And I think people are overlooking that chance and ignoring just how much we don't know about all those injuries and how they're likely to play into 2012.