Pretty sure it's Ryan since he appears in the rotation. I wouldn't spend that much on a 33 year old in a pitcher's market.
Pretty sure it's Ryan since he appears in the rotation. I wouldn't spend that much on a 33 year old in a pitcher's market.
I really like the idea of bringing in Ryan Roberts and Stephen Drew. Neither are huge moves, but could really bolster the IF situation. I'm holding out hope that Terry Ryan finds somebody of value for some of our outfield talent, but I am realistic, too, and realize that Scott Baker will probably be the best SP we get this offseason.
'Kelly Johnson is going to pitch AND play 2nd base? Now that's what I call value! That rotation makes me a little nauseated by the way. '
That Johnson in the rotation is the one from Miami...Josh Johnson. It's stated in move #2. Reading is fundamental
Is there a way to systematize this next year -- like have each thread in the forum styled something like:
2013 Off-Season Blueprint - Lonestar
first off aint no free agent of quality coming to twinkietown unless ryan makes a bold move first..if the twins traded for shields or johnson ,
or better yet both, then targeted anibal sanchez ,even to the point of over paying him we have the making of a very decent rotation ,why target sanchez? well we take away from the tigers and add to the twins a two fold gain...
Keep in mind I'm wearing rose tinted glasses and drinking Kool-Aid.
1. Trade Revere and Parmalee for Shields. If you could fuse the two of them together, they'd make a great player. Nonetheless, I'd wager that combined they'll be worth more than double the Career War of Aaron Hicks...
2. Trade Hicks for Elvis Andrus. With Maestro and Benson near ready as at least defensive CFers, and Buxton and maybe Rosario in the pipeline, trade high on Hicks.
3. Sign Haren for 3/33$ or something
4. Bring back Baker.
5. Spread a wide net for veteran SP on the rebound, starting with Pavano, Bedard, et. al.
Done and done. Haren and Shields seem to profile as classic Morris/Radke/Pavano type bulldog/gritty/workhorse guys. Lineup intact with a solid addition of Andrus. Rotation bolstered.
I believe the Twins can contend in 2014 and that is what I am working towards...
First--go after Grienke or Haren (odds are we wont get them) but try--3 years $50-60 million.
Second--trade Span/revere (and whatever else you need) for Hansen/Shields (may overpay but we need top starter)
Third--avoid rest of free agents (Maholm, Jackson, etc. no better than what we have) unless they agree to one-year deal less than $8 million.
Fourth--sign Baker/Pavano (only one) to cheap contract with incentives.
Fifth--give spring training shots to Dozier, Florimon, Hicks, Arcia, Gibson, Hendricks, etc. Let them grow in majors.
Sixth--trade Morneau, Willingham for prospects and put Parmalee at 1B
Here's mine. It's not complete and I'm still missing a shortstop and another utility player. I would also like more options in the bullpen. It comes in at $90M currently including the legacy costs of Blackburn, etc.
Trade Justin Morneau for a C+ Prospect and pick up $4M of his salary. After LaRoche, Morneau is the second best 1b option probably available. I’m looking for about $10m in budget relief and a low-minors pitching arm. I don’t think that’s too much to ask for a one-year rental.
Trade (Denard Span OR Ben Revere) and Michael Tonkin and Josmil Pinto to TB for SP James Shields. I think TB would prefer the cheaper, healthier, pre-arb Ben Revere to even Span’s team-friendly contract. We’re giving up a lot, but getting a very good player. If we can’t resign him after his contract lapses, he’s the type of guy we could probably give a qualifying offer to and win either way. This gets Tampa a solution in center, catcher, and a minor leaguer with a good arm. Actually, if we can substitute Tonkin for some other pitcher, that would be great. I'm just trying not to make this a deal a homer.
Sign SP Roy Oswalt to a one-year $6m contract. I don’t think he’s retiring and his peripherals from last season indicate he can still pitch at a high level. I hear he held out last season as he wanted to pitch close to his Mississippi home and MN isn’t that far (and he may be giving up on that requirement). He enjoys hunting and MN is a good state for an outdoorsman. If he still insists on being closer to home, he may sign with STL or KC, but MN remains an option. At least he’s got to know that MN won’t bench a veteran after a few bad starts.
Re-sign SP Scott Baker. For an incentive laden contract with a base of 2M and incentives up to 6M with a 11m team option for ’14. He’s a full free agent now, but I can see this working out as he likes it here.
Offer a minor league deal with an invite to spring training to P Jonathan Sanchez. This is a reclamation project that could work out for both parties.
Sign OF Grady Sizemore to a one-year deal for $2.5M + incentives based on AB up to $5.5m. I have a hunch he is going to be a “hidden gem” about a dozen other teams are going to be offering an deal with incentives to, but MN might be only one in the AL Central where he’s used to playing.
Sign LHP Mike Gonzalez to a one year $1.5M contract
C: Mauer, $23M
1b: Parmelee $ .5M
2b: Carroll $3.75M
3b: Plouffe $.5M
LF: Willingham $7M
CF: Span $4.75M
RF Sizemore $5.5M
DH: Doumit $3.5M
IF: Florimon $.5M
OF: Mastriaonni $.5M
C: Butera $.6M
SP: Shields* $9M
SP: Oswalt* $6M
SP: Baker* $6M
SP: Diamond $.5M
SP: who really cares if we get the first four, I suppose Gibson, DeVries, Henricks, etc $ .5M
RP: Perkins (L) $2.5M
RP: Burton (R) $2M
RP: M. Gonzalez (L)* $1.5M
RP: Burnett (R) $.5M
RP: Fien (R) $.5M
RP: Slama (R) $.5M
RP: Duensing (L) $.6M
RHP: Blackburn $5.5M, justin morneau $4M (salary picked up from his trade)
STAY AWAY: from junk throwing middle aged "Innings Eaters". I'm talking about the Millwoods, Guthries, and Saunders of the market. We would be buying no-upside players with lots of downside potential on multi-year contracts, and you can get innings from anywhere.
Even if this works out, your payroll looks like it will be over 100M
With so little happening now and doubtful prior to the Winter Meetings, I have been considering putting together a blue print. After all, other than having Baker sign with the Cubbies, very little has transpired.
The only thing that prevented me from putting together my list was my indecision between trading Span or Morneau, while I like both of them the Twins are in desperate need of starters. I have been leaning towards trading Span for weeks now, but it simply boils down to who replaces the trade (Span or Morneau) and both position players would most likely be replaced with Parmelee and his natural position would be first base. With only one year remaining on Morneauís contract he seems to be more expendable. Keeping Span would allow more time for the outfielders who are knocking on the door to develop.
So trade for a young pitching prospect, even if the Twins need to cover some of the contract. Sign a couple of free agents (Anibal Sanchez and Carlos Villanova) and let the young minor leaguers develop into starters for 2014 and 2015.
Anyway, I would have liked, if adding Youkilis, to trade Morneau or Parmelee. And actually, the addition of a RH bat like that makes me more open to trading Willingham.
I have big doubts about moving Plouffe anywhere else.
What's your blueprint now?
Good news thus far this winter:
Entering 2012 the Twins farm system was in the bottom 10 of major league teams. The farm system is now in the top 10. The Twins have added two very hard to acquire power arms to their stable.
They added a young starter that can be counted on to help this year and down the road.
Step one of Terry's blueprint looks to be rebuild the system. Mission accomplished
What still needs to be addressed...
There are at most 4 guys that can even remotely be projected to be in the rotation both this year and in the future. (Worley, Diamond, Gibson and Hendriks).
The defense may be the worst in team history.
Mastroianni will probably be below league average in CF. He did not come into baseball as a CF. The Blue Jays started him at 2B, moved him to CF and played him in LF when they had a better CF option in the minors. It is hard to find scouting reports because he wasn't a prospect. The Minor League Baseball Analyst liked his work ethic and make up but said both his arm and instincts came up short. Together, Parmelee and Willingham will be well below league average at the corners. Our young pitching staff deserves better.
The infield defense may not be much better. Scouting reports on Florimon spoke of flash and inconsistency. Escobar's reports are better, but his bat is weaker if that is possible. Plouffe will get better with more time at 3B.
Catching? Overall it was below average last year and hasn't changed.
Another concern... key offensive players are in their decline phase.
I would trade the veterans. The off season is the perfect time to trade a guy like Morneau and send cash to pay a significant part of his salary. Budget lines are much tighter in the offseason. There are teams that still need a bat and don't have the budget space. The Twins can make it work for them with the right offer. Willingham could be dealt in this fashion also.
Fix the defense by playing Hicks or Benson in CF and Arcia in RF. Select a SS by glove first. Yes, the arbitration clock will start one year earlier. The Twins are not a small market team, they can afford to pay them when their time comes. Worst case is that they will be so good that they will be able to demand millions in arbitration. The Twins should hope for such misery.
Sign a starter like Jurrjens or Lannon and see if they can right their career. The Twins should be a good fit for them.
Wait out the free agent market and sign a veteran starter to a one year deal that can be flipped midseason.
Play young guys who can defend and let their bats struggle. Defense first when choosing a SS and back up catcher. The Twins do need to assess if Butera is really an elite defender. Metrics suggest otherwise.
Earlier the argument was that the Twins couldn't rebuild for the future because they had no arms in the system. That can't be argued any longer. This could be a historically bad season for losses. It also could be the first step towards Minnesota's 4th successful run of good seasons.
Now that we've traded Span and Revere, what do we do next? The assumption is that we haven't signed any pitching so, let's get started there but I say, not so fast my friends. I'd say our biggest organizational need at this point has now shifted to SS. If we were to start the season today, the Twins could have a rotation that would look like this:
Now you look at the Twins 2014 projected rotation and you start to see fewer holes:
Based on that, do we really need to go out and sign 3 or even 2 SP's? Would it even be wise to sign 1 to a long-term deal? I'd say no. After trading Span and Revere I think TR's addressed a huge organizational concern and set up the Twins to sign one, maybe two starting pitchers to short-term contracts to bridge the gap. Shaun Marcum would be a perfect candidate on a 2-year deal and what about Brett Myers on a 2-3 year deal. With Myers, he could be stretched out to start the season in the rotation until Gibson is ready to take over. At that point Myers can be shifted back to the bullpen where the Twins have another need.
Finally, getting to the SS position. If the Twins seriously hope to contend or even compete in 2013 they need to address their middle infield. By signing Stephen Drew to a 3-year $33 million we may be able to guarantee his services. Signing Drew would shift Carroll to 2nd and demote Florimon, Escobar, and/or Dozier to AAA where they belong. This could also create the opportunity/option to trade Willingham and move Plouffe to LF if Sano is ready for the call in 2014. It would also create the opportunity/option to trade Carroll when/if Rosario is also ready for his call in 2014.
With these moves I've suggested the Twins could be highly competitive in 2013:
In 2014, having traded Morneau, Willingham, Carroll, and Marcum (with those trades, I'd suggest targeting a top SS, C, and SP prospect):
Did ANYONE have trading both Span and Revere in their blueprint?????
I do know that I heard one or more commenters say that throughout the last several months. Of course, one hears just about anything and everything around here.
I have to re-think things now, certainly.
1. Draft LHP Danny Rosenbaum in Rule 5 draft. (missed him by 2 spots) ACTUAL: Alex Pressly ...return to boston.
2. Trade Denard Span for Alex Meyer (B+)
3. Trade Ben Revere for Vance Worley and Trevor May (B/ B-)
4. Trade Josh Willingham and Eduardo Escobar to Pittsburgh Pirates for P Kyle McPherson (B-),P Nick Kingham (B), and SS Alen Hanson (B+)
5. Let Scott Baker (ugh), Matt Capps, Matt Carson, JR Towles and Luis Perdomo all leave via FA.
6. Sign Jeff Kobernus or Casey McGahee or Mark DeRosa to a 1 yr minor league deal w/ invite to ST.
7. Sign -Brandon McCarthy- I mean -Joe Blanton- Damn I mean: LHP Joe Saunders to a 2 yr. $ 13 Million dollar deal.
8. Sign -Cody Ross- i mean - Ichiro- i mean -Bobby Abreu- Damn I mean: LF/3B Mark Reynolds to a 2 yr. $15 Million dollar deal
9. Sign SP Jeff Karstens to a 1 yr. $3.5 Million dollar deal.
2013 opening day Roster:
1. CF - Darin Mastroanni
2. 2B - Jamey Carroll
3. C - Joe Mauer
4. 1B - Justin Morneau
5. LF - Mark Reynolds
6. RF - Chris Parmelee
7. 3B - T-Money Plouffe
8. DH - Ryan Doumit
9. SS - Pedro Florimon
SS/2B - Brian Dozier
OF -- Joe Benson
C --- Drew Butera
3B -- Mark DeRosa ?
SP Kyle Gibson
SP Scott Diamond
SP Vance Worley
SP Joe Saunders
SP Jeff Karstens
LHP - Brian Duensing
LHP - Glen Perkins
LHP - Tyler Robertson
RHP - Alex Burnett
RHP - Jared Burton
RHP - Casey Fien
RHP - Kyle Waldrop
AAA ROC Red Wings
SP Kyle McPherson
SP Liam Hendriks
SP Samuel Deduno
SP Cole DeVries
SP BJ Hermsen
RP Anthony Swarzak
RP Anthony Slama
RP Caleb Theilbar
RP Deolis Guerra
RP Steven Hirshfeld
RP min. lg. FA
AAron Hicks, Chris Herrmann, Deibinson Romero, Evan Bigley, Rene Tosoni, Brian Dinkelman, Chris Collabelo.
AA New Britian Rock Cats
SP Trevor May
SP Alex Wimmers
SP Alex Meyer
SP Pat Dean/ Logan Darnell
SP Matt Summers
RP Dakota Watts
RP Matt Hauser
RP Bruce Pugh
RP Jose Gonzalez
RP Ricky Bowen
RP Ryan O' Rourke
RP Miguel Munoz
Oswaldo Arcia, Nathan Roberts, Daniel Santana, James Beresford, Nate Hanson, Josmil Pinto, Angel *cough* Morales, Levi Michael*.
A+ Ft. Myers Miracle
SP Nick Kingham
SP Mason Melotakis
SP Hudson Boyd
SP Adrian Salcedo
SP Jason Wheeler
RP Zach Jones
RP Luke Bard
RP A.J. Achter
RP Madison Boer
RP DJ Baxendale
RP Corey Williams
RP Clint Dempster
RP Cole Nelson
DL Manuel Soliman
DL Matt Tomshaw
Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, Allen Hanson, Niko Goodrum, Jario Rodriguez, Kyle Knudson, Danny Ortiz, Lance Ray,Travis Harrison, Max Kepler.
Jose Berrios, Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, Aderlin Mejia, Jorge Fernandez, Amuerys Minier, Felix Jorge, Trent Higginbotham, Austin Malinowski, Tyler Duffy, Taylor Rogers.
I do agree whole heartedly that the Twins are going to need to address the middle so that they have something come 2014/15. I'm not yet convinced just yet that Dozier is going to be a bust, but even if he's not, that's one of the two positions, and most likely 2nd. I like the Stephen Drew idea (I've said the same myself), but I'll be mildly surprised if he gets a 2 year deal, much less a 3 year deal, and whether we like it or not, there's not guarantee he bounces back.
Personally, I'd be looking at drafting college pitching like Appel (or some other college pitcher) come June and stashing them in AA. I'd trade Morneau at the deadline for a strong MI prospect that can help in 2014. Trading Willingham is going to have more to do with whether or not Arcia, Hicks, and Benson are ready. Two of the three of them are going to have to be if Morneau gets traded (as Parmalee shifts to first), and all 3 will have to be ready to send Willingham away in 2014.