I'd also prefer that contract over Vernon Wells, Werth etc etc
Then you venture off to two corner outfielders that have nothing to do with Span's value in a trade. Yet you call my example terrible?
You're getting caught over-valuing a player you watch every day. Span is a player with concussion issues who is very solid, but unspectacular. You're not going to get anyone's prime trade bait with him alone. If Ryan pulls that off, great, but attacking anyone that questions that kind of speculation has plenty of flaws too.
I also like the idea of bidding high for Anibal Sanchez -- he seems like a solid #2 -- and taking him would might weaken the Tigers.
You can't trade with yourself.
What's weird about Mackey's blueprint is that he's got Dozier playing half the time and Florimon less than that, and yet that's his optimal lineup. They're in the lineup but he's projecting them to be terrible. He also says this:
"• The Twins scored 701 runs offensively last season, which ranked mid-pack. That figure likely would have been closer to 750 had 15% of the team's plate appearances not been swallowed up by black holes (Brian Dozier, Pedro Florimon, Danny Valencia, Alexi Casilla)."
What I'd like to know is, how did Dozier and Florimon's stock rise to the point that we're ready to hand the keys to the car over to them?
Span is a very solid player but I don't believe his value as a player is going to be fetched in the trade market. Some players fetch more than their value, some don't. But that is merely my opinion, one I'm entitled to without being drummed over the head with statistics that only matter tangentially. In simpler terms for you - there is no fact-based argument about player trade value.
It's nice that we think Tampa is in the market for CF, it makes it an option worth exploring, but to assert that anyone's doubts about Span's ability to fetch a particular player (Minor or Shields) is really something based more on a gut feeling. The numbers you post exist, but Tampa doesn't have to care about them. Tampa could also care greatly about them, but still more about his concussions. We, on a message board, don't know that. Getting high and mighty about someone else's gut feeling about trade value is trying to punch air. It won't work and you look stupid doing it.
You also wrote to me: 'Getting high and mighty about someone else's gut feeling about trade value is trying to punch air. It won't work and you look stupid doing it. '
Which is exactly what YOU did and have done. ' You're not going to get anyone's prime trade bait with him alone'.
And when I responded to Willihammer's post to me, I wasn't acting high and mighty. I originally suggested a situation that I thought would make for a good trade and since he disagreed, I asked him for one he thought would be beneficial to TB
I did say to the guy, who never responded BTW:
'Okay...so...let's say they don't want to use Jennings in CF, which FA CF is gonna be cheaper than Span over the next two years who is also younger and fits their leadoff needs? BTW, I also mentioned Revere at the beginning of all this..'
Asking him what he thinks might be a better alternative isn't acting all high and mighty, it's asking for his opinion as to what he sees out there that might be better since he didn't think my scenario worked. If that's acting high and mighty, then we have different views as to what that means. I thought that was asking him what he thought might be better for the Rays...what they might do to address their needs.
I do thank you for the condescended words:' In simpler terms for you - there is no fact-based argument about player trade value.' As if you think you're somehow so far above my intelligence that you need to break things down to me as if I'm an idiot. Must be nice to be as smart as you......think you are.
I've shared my opinion, you're welcome to yours as well. I hope yours is right, because then we'll turn Span into better value than I believe we will. But citing stats does not lead to a factual conclusion of trade value and it's silly to assert that.
and there is another issue or two in play here: There are at least 3 CFs at the FA market who are better than Span (Bourn, Victorino, Pagan, Hunter maybe) but they cost more. Also, teams know that the Twins have to trade one of Span or Revere so that cuts down the expectations.
As far as Span goes, his lack of concentration sometimes really bothers me. At the batter's box, on the bases, on the field. He has spurs that he seems to be in his own world. And I suspect that I am not the only one who has seen that.
I'm Guessing that every team would love to have Span including the Twins. However, there will differences in opinion on how highly they value Span and differences in how much they need Span.
I don't think it's far fetched to think that GM's differ in opinions on players much like we differ in opinions. Some might lock into Metrics and Some might lock into measureables and some may lock into potential and most probably use a combination of but they all have differences in valuation of every player ranging from big differences to small.
This Trading stuff is tuff for that reason. It takes a lot of phone calls I guess.
I'm hopeful that some GM values Denard Span highly and needs and wants him and I'm hopeful that whoever that GM is... I'm hopeful that he has a decent spare pitcher to make the deal.
For me, it was just about this: The Rays seem to need a leadoff guy, they lost their CF, they are pitching rich (including Shields who they won't be able to afford in 2014 so they'll likely trade him) and they have a low payroll. Span will likely be cheaper the next two years than any comparable FA CF and he's proven. Revere could also be a choice if they like his potential and the fact he's even cheaper.