Remember, Revere hasn't actually stayed with the Twins for an entire 162 game season yet. He has areas to improve on for sure, but he was 3rd in SB, 10th in Triples, 6th in singles in the AL. I fully expect that his walk rate will improve, and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see him in contention for a Gold Glove and leading the league in SB next season.
If we extend him now, we take the chance that he won't pan out. BUT, we won't be taking that big a risk. With his limited big league experience, they should be able to extend him for pretty cheap, cheaper than what it will cost next off-season
The logic I'm hearing is "well what if he becomes a better player - then we'll have to pay him! Better pay him now before he's a good player!" Please take that logic and apply it to Parmalee. Or Hendricks. How about Valencia after his rookie year? It sounds really good on paper but there is a reason why no team in the league operates like that. We shouldn't buck that trend on Revere.
I'm comparing skill sets and I believe they are comparable skill set wise... But I don't like comparing players directly because its nearly impossible to compare players like its hard to compare snowflakes.
If OPS is your main point.
Ben Revere OPS .619 in first full year at age 23
Michael Bourn OPS .588 in his first full year at age 25
But again... Bourn has the benefit of time to become what he has become.
And again... I do not think we should extend Ben at this time. But I would like to say that "Extend Ben" Rhymes.
I know you don't hate Ben... We just disagree on his value. That probably won't change unless Revere actually changes it with frying pans over either of our heads.
I have no idea whether the Twins should lockup Revere to a long term contract. What I like about Revere is that he is a natural hitter. Some players, Span is a good example, have to learn how to hit in the minors. Revere has always been able to hit. I don't think he will ever be a 4th outfielder. I do think he could contend for batting titles. I also think that he can refine his hitting stroke to the point where he develops a bit more gap power. It is hard to play a guy with that kind of speed too shallow, if the ball gets past you it is a triple or a home run.
Revere has things to learn, but he was also brought up to the majors a year too early. A little more plate discipline, learn how to bunt a little better, a little more consistency with the swing. I expect some pretty good years from Revere as long as he is healthy.
And how is extending him not taking a big risk? Was Nick Blackburn not a risk? Are the Twins so flush with cash that they didn't need the $5m paid to Nick in 2012? Seems to me that the $11m wasted on Blackburn in 2012/13 could have been used to pay someone who wouldn't help the team to consecutive "worst pitching staff in the AL" awards.
A. He's a free swinger and he was a superstar in High School in Kentucky. The Twins Would not have reached for him in the first round if he wasn't knocking the ball around the park and out while flying around the bases. He hit 28 dingers in High School. I don't believe the Twins Scouts, Cross Checkers, Directors and GM said... Lets reach for this guy with no arm and no power. He would have been available much later with no arm and no power. He was most likely showing something else in High School.
And A High School Coach is not going to want him to stop swinging when he's your superstar and he's knocking the ball around the park.
B. he's still Young... Breaking Habits are hard and he still hasn't failed yet as a free swinger.
C. The Wood Bat... Ben isn't a power hitter no matter how many times he cleared the fence in high school. Since the Dawn of baseball... Coaches consistently take kids with the kinda of speed that Ben and the power that Ben has to use their legs. Ben has taken to that pretty good... Maybe too much.
D. He's the son of a coach... Football coach but a coach none the less. I think it's quite possible that Ben will spend the Winter with Plate discipline as a goal of improvement. Span is gone now... Ben knows that makes him Mr Lead Off candidate. I'm sure he knows what that means and I'm sure his coaches are saying the same thing and Im sure his dad understands it as well.
E. You may be right... He may be the same type of guy who doesn't draw enough free passes 4 years from now. I still think its very possible that he gets better with experience.
Oh yeah"" one more...
F... He's really short... Think Eddie Guedel.
Regarding Bourn's salary demands, supposedly the Cubs are interested and Boras has started the negotiations at not, $75M, but $100M. That the Twins can get a Bourn-lite- who is already producing much better numbers at the same age as Bourn and who isn't all that far from Bourn's best numbers 6 years out and in his prime- at less than $.5M is a payroll godsend for a team that has so many other holes.
As for Revere, I keep hearing "expected improvement", "significantly higher ceiling", etc. etc. What are all of you basing this on? The fact that he hasn't posted an OPS higher than .741 since low A? That he hasn't been a plus hitter since Beloit? Brian freakin' Dozier dominated AA for almost an entire season. Revere couldn't even do that. Beyond trying to snatch hope and dreams from the skies, what is the basis for this faith in Revere? Because his on-field performance has said very different things for 4+ years now. Revere may be an acceptable centerfielder. I'm not saying there's no hope for him as a player. My argument is that there is no evidence to support that he will be a plus player. He has no power. He has no patience at the plate. He hasn't been a good hitter at any level since 2009. Every skill he has as a baseball player is based around the fact that he can run really, really fast.
And baseball is historically unkind to those types of players. This isn't sabermetrics. This is observation through 100+ years of the sport. Guys who have one tool tend to fall on their faces, especially if that power is speed.
As for Bourn, his upcoming contract is irrelevant. We should be laughing at whoever Boras hoses into paying that guy big money going into his 30s, just as many of us laughed at Seattle when they did the same for Figgins. How'd that work out for the Mariners? What makes anyone think Bourn is going to hold up as he ages? He's the exact kind of player that doesn't hold up as he hits his 30s. Just because some teams are willing to throw bad money around doesn't mean the Twins should follow suit, particularly when all the cards are in their favor (ie. they have five more years of control of Revere).
This is Baseball 101 and pure common sense, folks.
The day Revere proves he can hit for even a .700 OPS (Which is still on the "way below average end of the spectrum for OF's) then maybe we can think about having this conversation. Until then, he is nothing more then a 4th OF, or a stop gap CF on a 90 loss type team.
Anyone who argues otherwise on the basis of "He is exciting!!" or whatever doesn't have the faintest idea of how baseball works and understands statistics at a 1st grade level. Not trying to be harsh, but it's the truth.
Is it fair to say that Ben Revere's natural progression equivalent is Juan Pierre? They seem like similar players.
I think the real answer to the question is: how difficult is it to replace a Ben Revere? He's a small, fast guy, with no power, and a weak arm. It seems to me that men in his demographic are plentiful in the baseball world. Quite likely each team draft 2-3 every year--true, very few are worthy of the ML level, but they are there someplace. The type of player to "lock-up" is the guy who is extremely difficult to replace--the truly elite player. The man whose skill set is way above the major league standard--all-star level, not just above average. The Twins made mistake with contracts on just that basis. It's easy to denigrate Blackburn, but let's assume his career was repeats of '08 and '09 rather than the disasters of '11 and '12. His salary for that level of performance would be reasonable, but also attainable on the open market at about the same price. Thus, even if Blackburn had "stayed the pitcher he was" , it was pointlessly risky to "lock him up" for fear he would "get too expensive". His '08 and '09 seasons were not awesome, merely competent. I don't believe that Revere should ever be extended a multi-year contract by the Twins--there are just too many other "ben revere's" in the baseball world to ensure that the Twins keep this Ben Revere.
Revere and Pierre entered the League at approximately the same age. Pierre made $3.7M, $5.8M and $7.5M ($17M) in years 6, 7, 8 of his career (ages 28,29,30).
While Pierre ultimately topped out at $ 10M, Michael Bourn is about to get between 5/$85 and 6/$100 on the open market. If Revere got locked up for an additional 3 years past/during arb (ala Span) for $15-$17M (which Bourn will possibly make in 2013 alone), that's a pretty good risk/reward ratio.