If most organizations see Tanaka as Law does, as a middle of the rotation guy, maybe that means the Twins' chances go up. I'm not sure how many teams would be willing to incur a huge up-front cost for the privilege of negotiating a deal for what would be, for them, a #3 starter.
If he would, indeed, immediately pencil in as the Twins' top starter, he might be worth more to the Twins than he would to other organizations.
I just don't think a posting bid comparable to what Darvish's rights went for makes much sense for any team if they're not getting a bona fide top of the rotation arm.
The Yankees are not going to care about the posting bid. So they will win by posting $50 or whatever million. They do care about salary and he is fairly cheap if in the 5-6 years and $55-66 million range.
I think that new posting system is a pipedream. Why would Japan agree to it since it could result in substantially lower winning bids?
I don't think anyone envisioned Japanese teams getting $50 million in a single posting fee and while the proposed new system may mean a bit less money going overseas as compensation, they won't see that money dry up completely. That's better than the alternative of having Japanese players simply able to negotiate with any/all 30 MLB teams with no compensation going to their former team at all.
A secondary concern is that MLB teams have the ability to screw everyone over by posting a large bid only to not make a good faith effort to reach an agreement with the player. The A's were accused of doing this with Iwakuma simply to keep rivals from signing him.
I think the bigger question is why would mid-market Midweast MLB teams agree to this. What high-profile Asian free agent is going to choose Minnesota or Kansas City?
Twins still should take a chance here. Young controllable pitcher at a reasonable yearly cost. Hope the upfront fee does not stop them. Would bid up to a little over $50 million for his rights.
The new proposal absolutely favors the big market teams. As virtually all decisions made by MLB do.
I worry that even if the Twins are the high bidder on Tanaka, the Twins do not have other factors in place to maximize his success.
Looking back, when Kuroda went to the Dodgers, he was 33 years old, the Dodgers closer was Takashi Saito and Kuroda was not expected to anchor the rotation. The Dodgers also had Lowe & Billingsley and 20-year-old Clayton Kershaw as well as Brad Penny.
When Darvish went to the Rangers, they not only had the guru in charge (Nolan Ryan), they also had Matt Harrison and Derek Holland (plus Scott Feldman, Colby Lewis & Ryan Dempster). They also had Yoshinori Tateyama already in their system (and having made his major league debut).
Tanaka would pretty much be expected to anchor the Twins rotation plus would be the only Japanese player on the team at this point. Would that really maximize his possibility of success? Is he the right fit for the Twins? Are the Twins the right fit for him?
Question, has Terry Ryan ever shown that he will (by actually doing it) spend a large amount of money on an International Free agent, Cuban or Asian player?
If a pitcher, like Darvish let's say, feels like he is going to be an absolute stud then financially it might make sense to come over early, work your way up through the minors and make it to arbitration. Certainly that is considerably more risky but the potential reward is also much greater.
Another factor in the decision making process, and one I don't know the answer to, is how much these guys are making in Japan/Korea. Does anybody know?
Wasn't sure if this really warranted a new topic, so I'll tack it on here as the discussion of Tanaka involves posting fees.
Just wondering if you could abuse the system to "block" a player if you were worried about him signing with a rival. Make a huge bid guaranteed to win, but then offer a terrible contract the player won't sign, thus preventing him from coming over here. Just wondering if there's anything that would prevent that, like the Japanese team keeping XX% of the posting fee regardless.
Oakland did that. It was not smiled on.....
Value is a funny thing. If you aren't going to spend that money elsewhere, and your best pitcher is a number 4 or 5 quality pitcher, I'd think Tananka holds more value to you than to a team that already has 3 or more good pitchers. Also, if you have a budget of between 90 and 120MM, and you are only spending 60-70MM, he should be more affordable to you (regardless of value).
I wasn't suggesting the Twins do that, just had the thought cross my mind wondering if it could even be done. Not they have reason to worry per se, but if the Red Sox were certain the Yankees were most likely to get him, could they pull that off to prevent it?