I know Jim Pohlad has publicly ruled out contracts over 4 years, and I realize the prospect of the Twins signing Cano has been pre-emptively mocked by a certain TD blogger (cough Swanson cough), but there are compelling reasons the Twins should pursue him.
* Twins have the need
* Cano's really really good
* Cano's healthy
* Denial value
* Top 10 pick going into 2014 (protected)
* weak market
Cashman has waffled publicly. Magic Johnson has excluded the Dodgers publicly. Rangers are "interested" but have middle infielders coming out their ears. Phillies are set. Boston is mostly set. LA is expected to prioritize pitching. Forget 10/300. I think there could be a real opening for a middle-tier club like the Twins to steal the premier FA for a 6 year commitment, a la 2011 Adrian Beltre.
I can't see Cano going anywhere but the Yankees. The fallout from missing the playoffs and then losing Cano would just be too much for the Steinbrenners to handle, I think.
Yankees or Tigers, I'd guess. Of course, you can never rule out the Angels doing something stupid under the radar! :)
Even though long term deals get panned by everyone the second they are signed, I still think Cano gets an 8 year deal. Down from the 10 years he is requesting, but still enough that he get's one of the elite contracts.
No chance at all we get Cano...
If the Yankees want him more than they're letting on, I don't think any team can stop them.
Originally Posted by Seth Stohs
If they are serious about getting under the cap and staying there though, then the Twins have to stop Detroit signing him or this whole rebuild is for naught.
Not what I would do with the money. For that money, I'd rather go after Tanaka or Ellsbury.
I'm not sure a second baseman is going to make that big of a difference.
Originally Posted by Willihammer
NO to Cano! He's a GREAT player, but NO. Tying up money that should be used on anything but pitching is a mistake.
i dont think the twins should do too much this offseason. sign 2 starting pitchers and a SS to compete with Florimon who could also play 3rd would be nice and maybe a 1B then wait to see which prospects are developing and go from there.
Let Texas sign him and try to work a deal for Andrus or Profar! :D
Cano will get paid by someone. The TV money may drive prices up a tish. I would not rule out the Dodgers... Especially if they don't win the WS. The Yankees will be competitive with any offer made by other teams... No matter how they are acting now.
The Twins have no chance. Even if they did have a chance. It would drain the money Pohlad kinda promised we would spend. I assume that money ain't endless and we need pitching.
No, no, no, and.... no. If we are going to spend 150M on a player (which there's a 100% chance we won't) it would have to be on a pitcher. I know our hitting is seriously bad but there is help on the way. There is no help coming for our pitching staff.
I just hope the teams in contention get together and drive the price down. Will any team ever learn from these bad 100M+ deals?
No. Cano is going to get at least 200 million. There is zero reason to bring him in and tie up 45+ mil a year in two players for the better part of the next 6 or 7 years.
The Dodgers or Yankees will bring him in.
I'm sure that the Giants are hating their Matt Cain contract while celebrating the World Series. The Tigers made it to the World Series based largely on the play of Verlander, Fielder and Cabrera. The Cardinals had Matt Holiday, Albert Pujols and Carpenter (which would have been a $100MM contract if it wasn't signed in 2007). The 2010 Rangers had Beltre and Kinsler. The 2009 Champion Yankees had several large contracts but I'm sure everyone is aware of that. The Phillies had Chase Utley.
Originally Posted by Danchat
In the last 5 years the only team that made the World Series and didn't have one of those huge contracts was the '08 Rays. I'd say that teams are learning. Elite players cost money and years. If you want to make the World Series you need elite players.
So at the end of the day some of these contracts might be terrible and some teams are going to be dragged down because of it but if you don't play, you can't win.
Mauer only has 5 years left on his deal.
Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave
I vote NO as well.
If the Twins are going to spend in the realm of $20 million on a single player (in addition to Mauer), it has to be a pitcher. I also believe that they need to add a vocal clubhouse leader (have to figure out what position that would be at based on availabilty/need) but I think that is going to have to be a lower tier ($10-$15 m).
Please note that I am not saying that they can find a FA pitcher worth $20m or more in this off-season just that if they are going to spend big money, that's where it has to be.
The Twins' spending is horribly unbalanced, we all know that. In 2013, Mauer's contract takes up about 28% of the payroll. At its lowest percentage (2011), Mauer's "new" contract still took up over 20% of the payroll.
Take a look at this year's playoff teams and their largest current contract in relation to their total opening day payroll:
Cards: Holliday -- just under 15%
Tigers: Prince -- 16.5%
Dodgers: A Gonzales -- 10.15%
Boston: Lackey -- 10%
Indians: Swisher -- 20.15%
Pittsburgh: Burnett -- 24.6%
Rays: Price -- 16.5%
Reds: Votto -- 11.85% (will go up substantially next year but probably still won't be over 20% given the new TV revenues).
The only one of those playoff contenders who devoted more than 20% to a position player was the Indians. The big spenders had the ability to spread their money around enough that their highest players weren't taking up more than 20% of their payroll.
Even if the Twins increase their payroll back to 2011 levels (I don't really see that happening even with the new TV $$$), it would be a huge mistake to tie up another 20% or more in another position player.
In the case of Boston, Dodgers and Tigers, those percentages would get a lot higher if they lower their payroll down to where ours is...even the Cards. But then you also need to look at the #2 and #3 paid players on their teams and see their percentages...
Mauer's contract isn't hurting us...we need to get off that myth.
That's irrelevant because in fact they HAVE the higher payrolls.
Originally Posted by ThePuck
The Cards are a bit of a different example because their payroll is in the same tier ($116-$117m) as where the Twins could be.
But they actually provide a pretty good example for the Twins. Holliday's contract is at less than 15% and although they made a strong bid for Pujols, they put on the brakes.
The point is that the Twins have a bunch of payroll tied up in ONE position player. They really can't afford to tie up another big chunk in another one as attractive as Cano may be.
The Cardinals and Red Sox might disagree.
Originally Posted by Seth Stohs
Look at what the Tigers have done in FA since 2010.
2010 offseason: VMart
I don't think any rebuild can keep pace with a rival who signs a top FA per offseason.
If the Tigers become suitors for Cano, and get him, that could easily push back the Twins window to 2020 or later.