The Lincecum prediction of 4/64 and his signing at 2/35 is informative. Sorry. Maybe that prediction was exaggerated, but still. Lincecum was definitely right below the Tanaka-Garza-E. Santana-Jimenez line. Hughes is with Arroyo and others just below that.
I would not necessarily count on Phil Hughes wanting a 4-year deal. I would expect that he might prefer a 2-year deal because he could see it as a make good contract and still be 29 (as opposed to 31). So he would take more money per year for two years, yet still less than Lincy. Think about it. A one-year deal could make it all the worse if he has another semi-par year. A two-year deal gives him more assurance and gives him a second year to improve. A four-year deal right now for $50 million (at most) could preclude him from a good contract as a 31-year old.
If he's the only signing- no thanks.
If he's a precursor to multiple signings- yes.
The bad news is that a bunch of other teams are looking at that split and probably coming to a similar conclusion. He is going to get paid. There is no need for him to take a shorter term deal. He is the guy it makes the most sense to me to take a chance on because the term of this contract will during the players prime. This is the guy I expect them to go after the hardest.
Just using my eyeball... I've never been a Hughes Fan. I've seen him pitch a handful of times and he has never impressed me and this includes starts away from Yankees Stadium in pitchers parks.
He Wilts... from what I've seen. Some pitchers will dig in when they need to dig. Hughes doesn't in my opinion.
With that said... No matter what my eyeball says... I'll take him... He would still be an improvement over some of our current guys. I'll take improvement no matter how marginal.
Ultimately some strange concerns. It reminds me of . . . the Vikings cycling through bad QBs . . . three bad ones ain't enough!
Buy Jimenez or Santana and Hughes. Stop complaining about sucking.
Am I alone in thinking that Hughes will want only a 1 or 2 year deal? He was pretty bad last year. How many free agent starters have ever signed 3+ year deals after a season that bad? That would keep his AAV down, guaranteed.
Hughes' record the last 4 years is a lot more like Francisco Liriano's than Edwin Jackson's. Liriano accepted a two year deal, and even Edwin Jackson basically took two offseasons to get his desired contract.
I predict Hughes takes a one-year deal from someone. Even a crazy Gil Meche offer seems unlikely for Hughes at this point (Meche was actually average in the preceding season).
The Twins shouldn't look at one-year deals at all unless there is a true reclamation project like Johnson.
Like Lincecom, Hughes is young for a free agent and probably doesn't see this as a last contract. Signing for two years in a situation where he can thrive will lead to a bigger contract in two years. Will he see Minnesota as the place where he can thrive? Would he have confidence in the park, pitching coach, catching situation and overall defense to believe this is the place?
Why Phil Hughes? Because AJ Burnett. Not only is Yankee Stadium generous giving up the HR but their defense is also not good.
Burnett: now that would have been a good pickup for the Twins. The Pirates essentially got him for 2/13 from the Yanks for a couple middling low minors guys. (Burnett had a partial no-trade, not sure if he would have blocked the Twins.) Bill Smith might have made that move, it's similar to some of his deadline deals.