But when TR says "my scouts know stats" or that there are these various unnamed front office people (in addition to Goin), the requirement for evidence goes out the window. We are supposed to take the Twins' word that, along the path to 'getting back to how [they] used to do it', they've also kept up with developments in the game.
To expand on 'mike wants wins' great post: even focusing on particular stats like FIP is a straw man. The forward-thinking organizations develop their own tools and processes. The issue isn't numbers at all, but rather the fundamental approach to management. Teams like Boston, St. Louis, etc., are run like a business - always looking for an edge, incorporating data into their decision making, and so forth.
The Twins approach is obviously very different - something that is rationally undeniable as a result of Ryan's own comments (and others with the organization). They stick to set 'philosophies' and say so proudly. These philosophies are meaningless platitudes about 'playing the right way' and having starters that 'pitch deep into games' (as if anyone would want otherwise), among the slew that are regularly thrown out by the org.
The Twins are a 20th century entity competing in the 21st century. It's a losing proposition.
The biggest measure of what he has or has not done well is that he was handed a godawful team and has done virtually nothing to improve it in any meaningful way. (Other than the draft, but everyone gets to draft and we won't know the ultimate value of those moves for some time) He's had an incredibly low bar to improve the team and still failed for two offseasons.
And let's put something to bed that is a total double standard on this forum: The call for specifics is silly. If I accuse the team of failing to be aggressive in negotiations, I hear "well yeah, but you don't know what went on in that room". The same works in reverse. I don't know how many offers were on the table that he passed on that would've helped, but he didn't pull the trigger. Or agents or GMs that approached him with deals I'd have loved, but he hated.
So as specific as you're going to get from me is that he's had a very low bar to jump and he's failed miserably at it by pretty much every objective and subjective measure you can find.
No business in the world publishes it's innermost, "nuts and bolts" research and methodology for the public and other businesses to pick apart and steal. Walmart's slogan and mission statement is "We save you money so you can live better." Do you think the leaders of a world-class, multi-billion dollar company truly don't have thousands of hours in cutting edge business research on the books to help them run it? Of course they do. Then why do we only get a simple platitude? Because that's for the public to see.
Do you honestly expect to see TR give a press conference and break down the methodology, planning, and strategy he used for a specific transaction? Why, so the guy he fleeced out of a prospect for Drew Butera can look back and see exactly how and why he was fleeced and not repeat he mistake? Meaningless platitudes are all you are SUPPOSED to get.
Even if they were, though, that leaves a question mark for the Twins' actual strategy, and a pile of losses as the result. The team has underachieved by Ryan's own admission. That compares poorly to the rigorous approach and on-field successes of Beane, Mozeliak, Friedman, Daniels, etc.
The man who knows that gravity is the cause of objects falling to earth surely has better explanatory and predictive power than the man who believes that objects fall to earth because those objects have more of the earth element in them than other elements like fire and wind.
A better comparison is taking what we know about the Rays, A's, Cardinals, Yankees, Boston & others and using that metric to judge the Twins, their methodology and their openness.
And very interesting comments. Gotta love the reactionary reaction to the Twins taking 2 steps back:
a. the Twins can do no wrong no matter what; need better food and more C&W acts at Target Field. And baseball in Minny is good.
b. bring back the old school when Ryan was Merlin, that will solve the problem (and Smith sucked even though the Twins had better record with him as a GM than with Ryan, because he does not get the spinning of the ball)
c. Scouts rock. Even though the Twins' MLB advance scouts kinda suck (see: results)
d. 2011 was all Smith's fault. 2012 was Jerry's and Stelly's. 2013: not enough old scouts. Go get them. Now. Lazarus too. And Molitor. That will fix it
e. FIP? what FIP? F IP.
f. I got "access" now. I shalt not say anything bad about the Twins because my perceived access might be revoked.
Based on the information available, my gut tells me some of the concerns voiced here might be legit. My experience tells me that we don't have nearly enough information to conclude anything with any certainty.
What I really want to know is what has changed in the drafting and development process in the past few years. I think we can all agree that this is the most important component in putting a winning team on the field. They have completely turned around the minor leauge system. What did they change? Is it sustainable? We don't know and probably won't anytime soon. Should we be praising or condeming the direction. I am not sure. Those who are absolutely certain must have got their MBA at a much better school.
I think it's ridiculous for people to clamor for improvement without specifics. What did you want? 91 losses? Would that clear your bar? Sign some vets and lose 86 games and draft 10th? It makes no sense to say suggest, as you are seem to be doing, that improvement is only shown by the ML teams record. The Twins are rebuilding. They need to get the young guys playing time. Ryan's been the GM for two years. Cubs and Astros have been rebuilding longer and losing more. Are their GMs failing?
I think it's funny people know what stats we use or that we don't have any predictive stats when we don't talk about it. How do you know?
I can't give credit for good drafting until the results hit the field. Prospects are just that, prospects. All the farm top rankings in the world don't win baseball games and are no assurance of wins in the future. It's a complete farce to sight that as a positive at this point.
As for "specifics" they are still hypotheticals. We could've signed McCarthy and he would've been great for us. Or Joe Saunders. Or there could've been a better offer for Revere. I fail to see how that is a productive exercise. It boils down to having a low bar to jump and having utterly failed to do so.
Houston's GM has managed to turn their farm around and totally restructure the organization. Epstein did the same in Chicago. If Ryan came in, changed the culture, changed the organization in significant ways - he'd have a free pass from me. Instead, he's come in content to keep the engine that has become a total failure chugging away.Quote:
Would that clear your bar?
I think everyone can agree they have Jack Goin and at least one person who may or may not have been an intern in their employ. That does not prove that they used them to positively evaluate Kevin Correia. The previous poster tried to imply that Jack Goin recommend him even though Ryan's own words say it was the scouts who recommended Correia despite his numbers.
I predict that if we respectfully invite Jack to have a friendly dialog, we may be rewarded with information that quenches our thirst. Obviously, Jack cannot give us any trade secrets, but maybe he could provide some tidbits that allay the concerns of those of us who feel that stats are not being used in an optimal manner.
I imagine what statistics/analytics (and the given weight to such metrics) the team uses is a secret formula of the trade, so, I hope, no one here expects some verification on what you use and how much you use it. But rather, so many of us worry that the Twins are intransigent against innovative analytical approaches. What can you say that would put to bed such worries without compromising your competitive advantage? Again, thanks for checking in.
C'mon people. Let's be nice. Jack was nice enough to become a TD member and post here. If we are respectful, maybe he will tell us about some things that we would love to hear about.