You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=...spects-Summary
You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=...spects-Summary
I don't know much about Amaurys Minier, but he sounds like a similar player to Miguel Sano. Is that true? Thanks for putting together this list, Seth!
I really enjoyed your top 50 list and couldn't wait as you parceled them out sooo slowly. I enjoy the unique perspective you bring, with the knowledge you have of so many players. Looking at the top 25 you have to feel pretty good about getting some great players to the majors. Even 50 to 25 looks pretty good. Let's hope these guys take the Twins to the playoffs in the near future.
OK. Did I miss something here? Gibson not in the 50? Or is he no longer considered a prospect?
I'd say there are guys in the 20-30 range that would be in most team's top 20 list. That is nice.
Pinto is too low.
Part 1: 46-50
"Before we get to the list and the series, a quick reminder of my definition of a prospect. First, I follow the guidelines that Major League Baseball uses for rookie of the year eligibility. That is, 130 big league at-bats for hitters and 50 innings pitched for pitchers. There is also a service time piece so that relievers that spend 2/3 of the season with the big league club yet only rack up 40 innings do not quality as a prospect any longer."
Gibson, of course, pitched 51 innings. A relatively arbitrary cut-off that makes it fun to think about what this list and the Twins ranking compared to others would look like if only he'd gotten 4 fewer guys out. I'd put him at #6 here, personally.
I could agree with Gibson at #6 if eligible.
Out of players that qualify, I would move Thorpe up to #6. Polanco hasn't had continued success that you would like to see at #6. If he has another year at Ft. Myers as he did at Cedar Rapids this year, I'll change my mind completely. JO Berrios looks like a very real bet to land in the Twins rotation for years. I am, however, a little concerned about his endurance as a starter. Does his body project as one that can handle 200+ innings for several years without fatigue and injury issues? I'm not confident about that. Kepler just seems to dangle on the side of the fence representing bust, more so, than the quality MLB everyday player. That may just be me. I, right now, don't see him being much more than a Plouffe.
Please note: As I mentioned with Polanco, all my opinions could drastically change with steps in the right direction this season. I fully respect and enjoy Seth's takes. If I was to be a General Manager he would surely have a spot on my staff. I admittedly know next to nothing to Seth, but I have my baseless opinions none-the-less and voice them freely.
I've only glanced at other top rated farm teams. So that said, maybe you know better.
But I feel the Twins from those glance overs have one of the youngest group of Top Prospects - which to me is all the more impressive. You have the Buxton & Sano nearly 3 years younger than the respective league average age.
This does also mean we are still a few years away, but it's encouraging to have top guys who are 2+ years younger at the same stage and often atop of the league leaders in production.
The Twins are considered better offensively than from the mound in current mainstream rankings, yet you ranked so many pitchers (almost half) in the top 50.
Two items of discussions: Do batter move up in the system faster than pitchers.
I am always curious as to how many of the Top 10 actually make it to the majors and contribute from years past. We know that players drop in and out of the rankings sometimes over the 3-4 year period. We also know that you don't have to be a Top propsect to get major league play, depending on the role needed filling.
Also, how do YOU think the Twins rate overall with placement of their minor league teams: Florida, New Britain, Iowa, Rochester NY and the mountains of Tennessee. I can honestly see nothing wrong with the rookie league and High-A being in the Florida sunshine in a state-of-the-art complex.....but does it matter to be in the INT League of PCL League or Eastern League or Midwest League?
And will this be the first year that the Twins go with more prospects at the AAA level than minor league free agents, or what?
I would like to know who you think will be in Ft. Myers this Spring as part of the Miracle (from your 50 top prospects). 1) Who moves up from CR and 2) who stays from the Miracle and 3) Who by passes CR from the 2013 draft?
I still can't get my brain around Romero at 18...
Walker falls to the mid 20's next year
Harrison does not make the list next year
Santana is off th list next year because he plays for the Twins
Polanco becomes the teams number 1 prospect next year - assuming Buxton and Sano lose prospect status.
Interesting, I don't think Polanco will pass Stewart. I think Stewart is gonna have a good year as will Polanco. He seems to be coming on strong in the rankings and hopefully most of the op guys are playing for the Twins. (besides Stewart of course) Also, Harrison is going to have a terrible year (or traded) if he is off this list.
Seth: I have enjoyed reading this series. While, I have been following baseball for about55 years, I don't have your expertise in ranking prospects. I also wonder if it really matters how you rank Sano, Rosario and Meyer (2-4)--we all hope they all will be up sometime in 2014 and contributing. I have also seen many hyped prospects have decent careers (starting with the guy we called Loop Narc in college--Eddie Kranepool who was supposd to be the next Lou Gehrig--they went to the same HS--but turned out to have a Cuddyer like career--which was better than a kid named Chilcott--a catcher drafted 1st overall right ahead of Reggie Jackson who never made it).
In any case, I group prospects as follows:
First wave (along with Hicks and Arcia) Buxton, Sano, Rosario, Meyer and Pinto
Possible additions (ranked 6-9) AB Walker, Harrison, May and Polanco (and maybe Santana)
The cavalry (pitchers who may start arriving in 2016 but most wont make it--hopefully one is an ace) Stewart, Gonsalves, Berrios, Thorpe, T. Rogers, Duffey, Sulbarin, B. Lee
Others with a chance for2016 or 2017: Goodrum, Kepler, DJ Hicks...
This guy does not belong in here because of age/performance/level/lack of tools combination. I suspect if he were from NJ instead of MN, he would not be in the list:
Many better choices out there; I'd take Dan Rohlfing who at the same age, did better in New Britain and played up to AAA last season...Quote:
#45 – Mike Kvasnicka – Ft. Myers – OF (24)
And what an unfortunate trade if you see what Sanudo did in the Houston system...
Harrison has too nice of a swing and is too young to fall off that quickly. The tools are there to deserve at least 2 more years on list. As far as Walker is concerned - His Power tool is too outstanding to drop that far. He has shown it works in games and would also deserve at least 2 more years to convince the Twins it was a fluke. Tools prevent those type of drop offs and Major Tools (Power; Defense; Speed; etc.) definitely prevent those type of drop offs. There is always the "We can fix it" menality when it comes to Major Tools (70-80 scale). Besides - If it aint broke don't fix it :)
Alex Meyer looked pretty good tonight. 5 innings, 63 pitches, no hits, 6Ks and one BB. Fastball 94-98 and worked mostly around 96-97. Very impressive.
Note: Meyer actually faced three more batters. Went 5 2/3, gave up a hit, and struck out one more. Hit 97 on his 76th and final pitch. Longest outing of the fall league for any pitcher.
Where is Ibarra?
I don't know – but the Twins added him to the 40-man roster. Interesting move for someone who is not on Seth's 50-man prospect list. But then Ibarra basically came in from nowhere.
Stewart is good. But in my opinion for a pitching prospect to be #1 he has to be at AA or above.
Walker - he has too many strike outs and not enough walks. From what I have heard/read looked over matched against low A breaking balls. A player who went to college who still struggles with SO, tells me he is guy who struggles to change his approach. I hope I am wrong as he does appear to hit straight fastballs a long way.
Harrison - he hit poorly this year and from the reports I read looked bad in the field. He should start at CR next year until he shows he can hit. Again, I hope I'm wrong.