Instead of Trading for Bailey if we sign another SP (any number of them are still available) we could trade any of Gibson, Rosario, Theilbar, Swarzak, Pressly, Burton, Fien, Deunsing, Worely, Diamond, or even Corriea and even low A players galore for another starting pitcher. There are lots of trade scenarios for Tampa Bay and Chicago Cubs
Several people here seem to want a pitcher on a 2/15ish contract. I understand the reasoning and it makes some sense. My question though is why Hughes?
Kazmir was better across the board last season, K%, ERA, SIERA, xFIP, FIP and both WARs. He has shown in the past he is capable of putting together some really nice seasons, unlike Hughes, and he is left handed, again unlike Hughes. He is predicted to get about the same 2 year contract.
So what do people see in Hughes that they like better than Kazmir? Is it simply the injury history?
However, the Twins must be confident that the pitcher is better over the next several years. The pitcher needs to have the upside of age or be projected for over 3 WAR for next year.
They can't sign a guy like a Pelfrey, Capuano or Arroyo. While they might make a one win difference next year, it isn't enough. This is the kind of decision that keeps teams in a cycle of mediocrity.
I wasn't very clear in my last post. What I trying to say is that Hughes hasn't been good for 3 years. During those 3 years Deduno, Worley and Diamond have all had stretches, nearly a full year in Damond's case, where they have been much better than Hughes during this 3 year period.
And lets face it, even in his best year starting, Hughes was no top of the rotation pitcher. Does he have upside, of course. Is he likely to reach it? Well that is the question. As I have said, I can see why the Twins might try to sign him. If you can get him for a 2 year deal, in the $7 mil per year area, well that might be worth the gamble. The problem is, I don't know that he is all that likely to pitch better than at least one of Diamond, Worley and Deduno. Hughes probably could be better than any of them but if he couldn't do it with a good team behind him, will a change of scenery to what will likely be a much poorer team, at least the first year, really going to help him? It might be interesting to find out, but I guess I would rather expect him to struggle. I could be wrong, because he seems to have the talent.
I think I explained Hughes pretty well not long ago. He has raw talent and looks very similar to Homer bailey before he figured things out 2 years ago.
Hughes is the free agent gamble that I'd like Terry Ryan to make. AND if the gamble pays off, how much fun would it be to see the Twins face New York in the 2015 ALCS, with a pitching rotation that sets up Hughes to pitch against the Yankees at Target Field. C'mon, a guy can dream, can't he?
I'm a little concerned Hughes isn't looking for a one year payday, too. That said, I think it's impossible to ignore the negative effect that pitching for the Yankees can have on some pitchers. The press there is relentless! Pavano left and was productive. Burnett left and was productive.
Ideally...I'd like to see Ryan pay for Garza and sign Hughes to a one year deal with an option. With the Twins' cash situation for this year, I'd even be willing to overpay him for the one guaranteed year if it gives you the option to walk away after one year.
I think he knows that this park, this manager, this pitching coach are more his speed and expectations won't weigh as heavy. But the upside is too strong to not give it a whirl. How often do you get the option to sign this young of a free agent pitcher with upside?
According to LENIII, it's a done deal. 3/$24m deal. Overall, I like it a lot!
It's at MLBTraderumors.com I'm really surprised that the Twins have spent to this level.
You got him my friend. Bon appetit.
If the Twins manage him correctly, I think this could turn into a pretty valuable signing.
His propensity to give up HR's has been beaten to the death on this board. Depending on how lucky he can get with HR/FB rate and what kind of defensive outfield is put out there when he pitches, this could be a really good thing going forward. It should be noted that his career GroundBall% is 33.6%, which is to say that he gives up a ton of flyballs, and a lower than league average amount of ground balls.
That being said, I think that during his starts, it is really, really important to field as good of a defensive outfield as possible. His starts would be good days to get Arcia in the DH spot if his defense doesn't improve, and a good day to get Willingham a day off.
Yeah there is risk, but keep in mind the twins basically gave the same amount of money for Ramon Ortiz, Jason marquis and Sidney ponson combined. (I would bring up Blackburn if I was a lesser man)
There's risk to both Nolasco and Hughes but there's also upside. Without the risk the Twins likely would have been priced out of both of them.
All three are out of option? I had no idea. My bad.
If that's the case, I imagine all three make the opening day roster, with Gibson in AAA.
And LEN3 is reporting the Twins still are trying to bring Pelfrey back. They must really be sour on Worley and Diamond.