AAA isn't even a 'regular' stop for most guys who excel as rookies.
Alex Fernandez was in Class A in 2012. Arguably could have won the NL CY Young his rookie year had he finished those last 3 starts and Kershaw on his own planet.
If I'm a HOF committee, Cy Young's matter. If I'm a GM of a MLB team, I care what he's going to do for my team going forward.
If I'm going to give a guy $30M a season he better get me some 5 WAR seasons. Otherwise I'm going to pass.
I don't weight $M per WAR like some as I would take the $M per WAR based on teams without a full standard deviation from the average salaries. Can't really weigh the Yankees and Dodgers on the same scale per $M. In my opinion.
So in terms of salary. It is what it is. If I'm the Yankees and I have Sano, Meyers...or the Red Sox or you name the teams who spend $150M a year (or were spending $125M a year before the new TV deal) and I say, yes. Absolutely. Meyers, Rosario, Berrios, Thorpe. Or you can have Sano and Berrios or Thorpe.
$30M is about 1/6th of their salary, not a big deal. For a team like the Twins, it's double that.
Leviathan, I think we're on the same page overall. We just have different arguments.
Price is by far a more valuable commodity, due to being a proven front line starter. 4+ win pitchers don't grow on trees. I've agreed with you and Kab of that being true. He's a much better bet to perform at a higher level than Meyer over the next six years.
What I was stating is their values of cost vs. performance over the next six years, and the value in terms of dollars. Meyer is a better bet to provide more surplus value than Price during that six year window.
As for the "good bet" thing. I've played poker for a living for years, so perhaps my thoughts on good bets is a little skewed. You give me odds, I'm taking it :)
As for your surplus value point, I'm not sure it's really important compared to actual value to the baseball team. Especially not in a situation like the Twins have where they can afford not to worry about money for the forseeable future.
The Twins need to find multiple Brian Doziers. Not necessarily his ability, but league average to above average players making little money. At that point, David Price and his contract makes sense to have.
The fact that you'd also be trading players that would be providing some of that needed surplus value, also makes no sense. I'm okay with jumping the gun. By assuming Buxton, Sano and Meyer will help the team and making a bold move. But losing their value, to gain Price's defeats the purpose.
That's why the Royals trade for Shields was incredibly stupid. Not just because it was an overpay. They traded Myers, a major league ready contributor. They took away 2.5 wins making the league minimum for 4.5 wins making $12M.
It's been said on this thread but I just want to agree . . . it's just not the right time for this move. Now in two years if Meyer's and Gibson develop into top or upper mid rotation arms and some of the offensive pieces fall into place for us it might make sense to make a similar move. Send Kohl Stewart and Berrios away for a current Ace. Who that might be? I have no idea but someone will be available, seems every year there is at least one guy nearing the end of his contract. Right now I'd be more content to try buy low on a guy like Hellickson that is under control for more years or could sign a more affordable extension and he'll be around when our top prospects start coming up.
Additionally the Twins aren't capped at 100M. They have already exceeded that and that was before a bunch of new money flowed into the game.
The other consideration is how do you go about building a championship team. One of the key components to a championship contender is having 1 (or even 2) aces. There are basically 2 ways to acquire an ace. One is to develop them and just cross your fingers hoping that they turn out and the other to trade for or sign a big name FA. Right now I'm glad the Twins have at least found some great minor league arms with that type of potential but I'm more the type that likes an almost sure thing like Price. Meyer looks great but I have thought that about so many pitching prospects (I'm a fanatical minors follower) And many of those busted or took 2-4 years to figure it out.
Here was an out of the box idea I threw out years ago (2010 offseason) on the BYTO board. there of course was 0% chance of the front office pursuing it. Halladay was on the block with one year left and the Twins had what looked like a strong team. I proposed a Hicks/Gibson (would have needed to be a PTBNL) for Halladay trade. Halladay was of course traded that offseason to the Phillies and signed an extension. He also was ridiculously valuable the first two years (14 WAR combined) before his shoulder was wrecked. Overwhelming the board was against it because Gibson and Hicks were so valuable as cost controlled prospects. 4 years later they haven't done anything yet.
Some prospects hit and some bust but this board's cup is violently spilling over with prospect optimism right now. Being unwilling to trade a good but not elite pitching prospect for one of the top pitchers in the game is just silly provided that the Twins can afford a mega extension (they can easily) and Price is willing to sign that extension.
What I liked about the post is the implication that subtracting cheap "wins" for a few additional expensive "wins" doesn't make much sense when your team is probably going to struggle to cross the 80 win threshold.
If you're a 90 win team looking to shoot for a 95 win season, these moves make more sense. When you're a 66 win team looking to cross into the realm of respectability, it makes far less sense to trade cheap seasons and wins for a couple of essentially pointless expensive wins in the short-term.
If we knew which prospects would provide cheap wins and which would flounder, then this wouldn't be a conversation... On the other hand, no GM would trade for those floundering prospects, either. But when your team needs as many cheap wins as possible just to get to the .500 mark, you want all those prospects, knowing some will fail while others will succeed.
Quick...someone go back a few years and tell the 2nd place 2007 Tigers how stupid they're about to be by giving up all that "surplus value" for Miguel Cabrera!!!!!!!
Kab's right, our excitement about our farm is totally distorting our ability to think about prospect value in a rational manner.
Brock - you're right, but your reasoning is about timing. Not about the idea of surplus value and using that concept to over-inflate a prospect's value.
It also doesn't hurt that Ilitch pulled the trigger and unexpectedly gave Dombrowski a blank check for half a decade. That changes everything about how the Tigers needed to operate in the past 5-6 years.
But you're using specific examples of timing (a valid point) whereas the issue with that post is it is a general statement that overinflates prospect value. If the Tigers had worried about surplus value over timing, they'd have never made that deal.
If the 2014 Twins win 85 games, then it's time to start exploring trade options and prospect trades. At 85 wins, they'll have several cheap players contributing on the roster, making some of those prospects expendable.