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I would agree with that. I also wonder about the likelihood of a bad throw to second trying to get hicks, which allows doumit to score from 3rd.

I used a 4.0 run scoring environment (3.0 to 6.5 scale). Here are the rates in the most extreme run scoring environments:

3.0 => 83% breakeven
6.5 => 79% breakeven

That's backwards of what I...

I've actually already done the calculations where there is just a runner on 1st for a few late-game scenarios. Could easily update it to look at the 1st and 3rd scenario, though.

4257

We can account for the situation (bottom 6th, one out, up four) and calculate the breakeven rate by comparing win expectancies (The Win Probability Inquirer):
WE before steal: 97.12%
WE if...

What surprised about Baker's signing as much as the money was the timing. It seems to me that if there were that many teams willing to pony up $5M+ for his services, he wouldn't have jumped on the...