Type: Posts; User: DeepFriedTwinkie
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05-31-2013, 06:11 PM
I would agree with that. I also wonder about the likelihood of a bad throw to second trying to get hicks, which allows doumit to score from 3rd.
05-31-2013, 04:50 PM
I used a 4.0 run scoring environment (3.0 to 6.5 scale). Here are the rates in the most extreme run scoring environments:
3.0 => 83% breakeven
6.5 => 79% breakeven
That's backwards of what I...
05-31-2013, 03:57 PM
I've actually already done the calculations where there is just a runner on 1st for a few late-game scenarios. Could easily update it to look at the 1st and 3rd scenario, though.
05-31-2013, 10:28 AM
We can account for the situation (bottom 6th, one out, up four) and calculate the breakeven rate by comparing win expectancies (The Win Probability Inquirer):
WE before steal: 97.12%
11-16-2012, 10:00 AM
What surprised about Baker's signing as much as the money was the timing. It seems to me that if there were that many teams willing to pony up $5M+ for his services, he wouldn't have jumped on the...