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Thread: Another Free Agent?

  1. #101
    Super Moderator All-Star twinsnorth49's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    No matter where you borrow that, the impact is the same. The Twins don't need to get better offense at the expense of defense. We've seen how awful up-the-middle defense can negatively affect an entire team.

    But if WAR is your go-to - essentially Drew is worth one extra win. Do you pay a 2nd round pick and 20-30M for that win? I'm not convinced it is and it appears most of the other potentially interested teams feel similarly. His demands have to come down significantly before he'll get much action.
    Fair enough, honestly I'm not that heavily invested in Drew personally, but despite as well as he can play defensively , I'm less invested in Florimon. I'm of the opinion an overpay on Drew is a reasonable gamble that won't necessarily handcuff the team and may end up returning more than it initially appears.

    There is no guarantee Florimon hits any better than he did last year, and it's frightening to consider that it's not so far fetched he could be worse.

  2. #102
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    No matter where you borrow that, the impact is the same. The Twins don't need to get better offense at the expense of defense. We've seen how awful up-the-middle defense can negatively affect an entire team.

    But if WAR is your go-to - essentially Drew is worth one extra win. Do you pay a 2nd round pick and 20-30M for that win? I'm not convinced it is and it appears most of the other potentially interested teams feel similarly. His demands have to come down significantly before he'll get much action.
    Quote Originally Posted by Hosken Bombo Disco View Post
    I can never figure out TD math when it comes to WAR so anyone can correct me if I'm wrong..

    3.1 - 2.1 = 1

    .....how difficult it is to forecast 2 years down the road and longer.

    I'm no sabre-genius, but I think I can safely forecast that Drew will still be an infinitely better hitter 2 years down the road than Florimon.

    And you can't leave out fWAR, which would indicate 2.1 extra wins (3.4 vs. 1.3, with a Win being worth up to $6M, seems right in line with the cost), and if Drew is properly utilized to maximize his strengths and minimize his weaknesses (ie, Escobar inserted against LHPs in 30 games or so with his career .739 OPS vs. them, or, in conjunction with Plouffe and his well-documented dominaton of LHP), that WAR, specifically oWAR, could actually increase from that projection. Some in this thread have added that Rome wasn't built in a day, but, by:

    1) adding Drew,
    2) along with another impact starter yet to be signed
    3) plus the 2 SP additions already signed
    4) plus significant positive regression from players coming off of down years
    5) plus significant contributions from impact rookies/sophs (Pinto, Sano, Meyer, Arcia, Gibson)....

    and now you're talking about an increase in potential WAR of 20 or more, yielding a possible fringe contender in 2014 and something better than that in 2015.
    Last edited by jokin; 01-25-2014 at 12:27 AM.

  3. #103
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    Quote Originally Posted by twinsnorth49 View Post
    Fair enough, honestly I'm not that heavily invested in Drew personally, but despite as well as he can play defensively , I'm less invested in Florimon. I'm of the opinion an overpay on Drew is a reasonable gamble that won't necessarily handcuff the team and may end up returning more than it initially appears.

    There is no guarantee Florimon hits any better than he did last year, and it's frightening to consider that it's not so far fetched he could be worse.
    Not far-fetched at all:

    First half Florimon: .636 OPS
    Second half Florimon: .573 OPS

    In the meantime, Drew has a career history of getting stronger as the season progresses, as exemplified in 2013:

    First half Drew: .722 OPS
    Second half Drew: .837 OPS

    Please note, Florimon's bat is so lowly disregarded among stat-heads, that some Fantasy Baseball sites don't even list him among their 30+ draftable options.
    Last edited by jokin; 01-25-2014 at 12:23 AM.

  4. #104
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    Quote Originally Posted by USAFChief View Post
    If Drew is unplayable against LHers, what did that make Florimon and his .180/.229/.230 against LH pitching last year?
    That makes Florimon unplayable also. But Florimon's awfulness shouldn't automatically make a $5 million per year player worth $10 million. I understand paying more when you're desperate but that mark up is just way too much particularly the years being requested.

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  6. #105
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    Quote Originally Posted by twinsnorth49 View Post
    But doesn't Florimon's 2.1 WAR get there due to his superior value defensively? Which would mean that Drew's higher 3.1 value is based on a much more superior offensive value, which is exactly what the Twins need to improve.

    Florimon may be a better shortstop but Drew is a better player, and the Twins need better players. I'm not as confident as some about what's coming up the SS pipeline in the system, therefore Drew represents a way to improve at a position of weakness that isn't going to harm the future either by blocking someone or monetarily hamstringing the team.
    I don't disagree that Drew is a better player than Florimon. I disagree that it is wise to give a guy a three year deal when the gulf between them will likely be negligible by the end of the contract.

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  8. #106
    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    I'm no sabre-genius, but I think I can safely forecast that Drew will still be an infinitely better hitter 2 years down the road than Florimon.
    I do agree. It's a double edge sword though. I think two+ years down the road the team will look different and more offense heavy, but in two+ years looking back on a 3 year contract to Drew won't look as good, just because he was a better hitter than Florimon, and Drew might be batting 7th or 8th by then anyway, or maybe a prospect emerges or Dozier can move back or a free agent becomes available in the meantime, etc. I think we are just saying that there are going to be better options than Drew at 3/30.

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  10. #107
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    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    Drew had a 3.1 WAR last year because WAR is heavily biased to aid shortstops.
    How is WAR heavily biased to aid shortstops? WAR just factors in positional adjustment. Stephen Drew shouldn't be compared to first basemen. The fact that he hit 25% better than the league average shortstop should be properly weighted.

    Drew's declining offense is not worth $10 million
    His declining offense just put up a 109 wRC+, so you're probably right. It's worth closer to $15 million.

    though none of us here care about that $10 million this year, I and many others DO care about that $10 million next year and the year after. I don't want to tie up that future money as the Twins have now shown a willingness to spend in free agency. There WILL be guys who are actually worth that kind of investment later.
    I actually do care about the $10 million. This year, the next, the year after and so on. I'm not in the spend just to spend camp. I just feel Drew is worth the investment.

  11. #108
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    But if WAR is your go-to - essentially Drew is worth one extra win.
    Quote Originally Posted by Hosken Bombo Disco View Post
    I can never figure out TD math when it comes to WAR so anyone can correct me if I'm wrong..

    3.1 - 2.1 = 1

    So then Drew is projected -- just for 2014 mind you -- to be worth exactly one more win than Florimon?
    Florimon was worth 2.0 WAR going into the all-star break last season. He was hitting close to league average for a shortstop and was providing great defense.

    The last 2 1/2 months he was worth 0.1 WAR. The defense was still there, but his offense fell off. Posting a sub .600 OPS and striking out over 30% of the time.

    Considering Florimon's track record, somewhere between his final results and post all-star break is likely the real Pedro.

    So the comparison should be: Drew and his track record of being a 3+ win player or Florimon, who can range from replacement level to 2 wins.

  12. #109
    Senior Member Triple-A Reider's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    Drew has a career history of getting stronger as the season progresses, as exemplified in 2013:

    First half Drew: .722 OPS
    Second half Drew: .837 OPS
    Playoffs Drew: .344 OPS

  13. #110
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    I think that Drew is better than Florimon, and better than any option the Twins are likely to put out at SS for at least two years, and quite likely 3 years. I have not seen anyone argue differently, while there has been debate over exactly how much better Drew is, or how good the pipeline is.

    The real question is unfortunately not "how do the Twins best spend their last available dollars?" but rather "will they spend some of their available dollars, or not spend it at all?" Since that is the question, and since Drew would improve the team, I hope that they spend the money and sign him, even factoring in the cost of a second round pick.

    Last year there was heated debate on whether it was right to root for Twins losses down the stretch to get a better draft pick, with many arguing that they would "root for wins, no matter what." Well, count me in the camp that roots for off-season signings that will improve the team's chances for this year. Even if the Twins likely won't be a strong playoff contender.
    Last edited by AM.; 01-25-2014 at 06:06 AM.

  14. #111
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    This entire SS debate of Drew vs. Florimon was caused by Twins management years ago. Oh, for so many years, and they still can't draft and develop a quality SS for the parent team.

  15. #112
    Super Moderator MVP USAFChief's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    I don't disagree that Drew is a better player than Florimon. I disagree that it is wise to give a guy a three year deal when the gulf between them will likely be negligible by the end of the contract.
    In three years, Florimon won't be a minimum salary player ( if he's still in the big leagues), so don't forget to factor in the declining financial gulf between them. Also keep in mind there's no guarantee Drew declines at all over the course of the next three years, there's no guarantee Florimon's defense is actually much if any better then Drew's or that Florimon doesn't decline offensively or defensively.

    Even if the gap is "negligible" in 2016, that still means the Twins have gotten better SS play in 2014 and 2015, and the same in 2016. For a team with aspirations of getting better over that time frame, that's worth money they have to spend and a second round pick.
    Last edited by USAFChief; 01-25-2014 at 07:47 AM.
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  16. #113
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    Both good options, but why give up the decent prospects that both of these players would command when you can get Drew for $$$ only? And the Twins most immediate need in the lineup is a bat, where Drew is clearly better than the other 2 options?
    It's not just $$$, it's $$$ plus our second round draft pick. (who likely will automatically join our top 15 prospects, because of the depth of this year's draft,)

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  18. #114
    Pixel Monkey MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Reider View Post
    Playoffs Drew: .344 OPS
    Irrelevant.

  19. #115
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    .344 OPS in 2013 (16 games)
    .602 OPS in 2012 (5 games)

    Had a monster playoff run in 2007 if anyone thinks that's relevant (1.084, 7 games).

    I share the overall mixed feelings on the board- I don't think he's much of an upgrade on average, but I think he has a better chance to improve the Twins next year than Pedro does (and I'm not that down on Pedro). I don't want to be paying him $12 million to not play in three years, though. That's a terrible outcome given pending budget pressures. Give him a two-year deal or walk away.

    Playing stratomatic was a lot less complicated when we didn't have to worry about long-term budget projections.

  20. #116
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    I will undoubtedly be called "old-school" but I do not think potential playoff teams worry about getting offense from their shortstops but look for it more from the traditional spots in the lineup that provide it such as the corner infielders and outfielders. When the full contingent of young players such as Buxton, Sano, Arcia and others are performing at hopefully their full potential the shortstop could likely be Santana, Polanco or Goodrum and the lineup would be just fine. If production is not arrived at from those traditional positions it will not mean a thing who the shortstop is down the road.

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  22. #117
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    Quote Originally Posted by ScottyB View Post
    Personally, rather than Drew, I'd prefer to buy low on a shortstop who had an off year from a team that has another shortstop on the doorstep. I can think of two off the top of my head. The Indians have Lindor ready to step in, so Asdrubal Cabrera might be available. Or better yet, the Cubs have Javier Baez on the doorstep, so how about Starlin Castro who is signed long-term (with option until 2020) at a reasonable rate.
    We don't know what the Twin's thought process is , but my speculation is this:

    1. They would balk at a third year, at anything resembling market price ($9M, say). This simply because of the risk with a player likely to decline precipitously by then.

    2. Daniel Santana is one of the Twins better prospects, and they have others too. There are evaluators that insist Santana is ready in 2015. In a year when the most optimistic among us projects a .500 record, perhaps one more year of Florimon, and maybe a slightly improved version, is viewed as a better option than a huge investment in Drews.

    3. There are a half-dozen or so star-quality SS's beginning their big league careers as Scotty points out. Maybe the Twin's calculus factors in opportunities to solve the problem via trade once those opportunities increase.

  23. #118
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    All teams should consider the following as they measure Drew's value over time. I am assuming all teams interested are concerned about the third or fourth year.

    They must not use last year's data to project next year's data. The sample size necessary for projection needs to be larger. They certainly can't use any split of season or playoff data. Most projection systems use 3-4 years of data depending on player'sage.

    They must study a large group of previous 30 year old shortstops and pay attention to the defensive decline over time. They should plan for the offense to decline, but will the decline in defense at SS be greater? What is the likelihood that he will have to move away from SS in year 2,3 or 4? How much can they can expect an OPS+ projected for the low 90s next year to decline?

    How have other players aged with similar health issues? Have they had any impact or recurrence?

    Will the team be in a better position to compete in 2014 or 2016? If it is 2014, they might go for it now and suffer the decline later.

    Of course there are no guarantees. There are only likelihoods. A healthy average SS with an OPS of 90 and average defense will not be a liability to the team in 2016. Is that a reasonable projection? I think there are several teams that don't think so.

  24. #119
    Pixel Monkey MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by oldguy10 View Post
    If production is not arrived at from those traditional positions it will not mean a thing who the shortstop is down the road.
    An extra win is an extra win whether it's the 65th or 95th win.

    There simply isn't a good reason to trot out a bad player at any position if you have the ability and resources to field a better player. Guys getting a free pass with the bat because they field a particular position is one of the old, bad ideas of baseball that needs to go away. Improvements should be made when and where they can (barring payroll, prospect, and future plans). Nobody should get a pass for being a subpar player and EVERYBODY should do their job (I hate the phrase "if everybody else does their jobs...", implying that eight guys have to do their jobs while the little league shortstop doesn't).

  25. #120
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kwak View Post
    This entire SS debate of Drew vs. Florimon was caused by Twins management years ago. Oh, for so many years, and they still can't draft and develop a quality SS for the parent team.

    Wait till Febuary 19th and sign Aledmys Diaz.....and sign his former teamate Yenier Bello now ,
    so Diaz has a friendly face to help him decide which team to go to,And so if Pinto struggles , we dont have an entire season of Herrmann and Kurt

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