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Thread: Another Free Agent?

  1. #61
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    Again, who cares, if that money is just pocketed intead? Drew for "too much money", or Floriman and the money isn't spent....those are your real options for SS right now, imo.
    Lighten up Francis....

  2. #62
    Senior Member All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    Again, who cares, if that money is just pocketed intead? Drew for "too much money", or Floriman and the money isn't spent....those are your real options for SS right now, imo.
    That becomes a false argument in 2, 3, or 4 years if they are looking to further add payroll and he's a waste of it.

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  4. #63
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Re: Michael Young. Word is that he is about to announce his retirement. Maybe sign an one day contract with the Rangers and do so.
    -----
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  5. #64
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    It also doesn't scream "come pay me 50M for the next four years"

    Don't get me wrong, I'd be ok with Drew. That said, there is a little bit too much adoration for his game going on around here in my opinion.
    Yeah, but nobody is saying to give him 50m over 4 years, or 4 years at all. Everyone is saying 2-3 years at 9-11 mil a year. At the very least you can assume he will be at least a 2.0 WAR player moving forward (good chance to be a 3.0 WAR player each of those three years) even at his worst he is "worth" the contract, and could actually end up being a "good" deal. Even more so considering the utter lack of any legit SS in the system ready to help anytime over the next couple seasons.

  6. #65
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    It also doesn't scream "come pay me 50M for the next four years"

    Don't get me wrong, I'd be ok with Drew. That said, there is a little bit too much adoration for his game going on around here in my opinion.
    I dont think anyone is adoring him. But we have money to spend, nobody coming up, and he is a clear 2 to 4 win upgrade at SS. Anything under 3-33 makes sense
    Last edited by tobi0040; 01-24-2014 at 04:25 PM.

  7. #66
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    There are other options for the Twins at short, namely Escobar and Bartlett who may do just fine if given the opportunity.

  8. #67
    Senior Member All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    I dont think anyone is adoring him. But we have money to spend, nobody coming up, and he is a clear 2 to 4 win upgrade at SS. Anything under 3-33 makes sense
    I disagree - any attempt to post his weaknesses or reasons for hesitation are immediately met with rebuke. There are positives and there are negatives with him,but only the negatives are met with challenges.

    If they can get him for 2/20 - go for it. Hell I'd give him 2/30. I just don't want to commit longterm to a guy who is showing red flags of decline.

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  10. #68
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    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    You realize you are then arguing that Drew isn't a platoon type of player simply because of the Twins incompetence at developing middle infielders?
    Considering that this is a thread about the Twins and free agents, who's players should we be comparing him to?

    I'd rather look at the last three years to make a judgment than I would 2010 and before. Recent trends are obviously more likely to continue than trends that happened last decade.
    If you'd like to call a couple of fluke injuries a trend, that's your prerogative. I'd rather take a look at the surrounding years of good health.

    Plenty of players come back from missing full seasons, to be just fine. Especially when they have the track record to support it.

    Why would Ryan want to be on the hook for multiple years at $10 million for that kind of player
    Perhaps because in his last four full seasons he's been worth 12.9 WAR.

    Including last season where he was worth 3.1 WAR. Despite all the injuries, the glaring splits and that horrible decline phase he's going through. WAR is also park adjusted, since he can apparently only hit at Fenway.

  11. #69
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    I disagree - any attempt to post his weaknesses or reasons for hesitation are immediately met with rebuke. There are positives and there are negatives with him,but only the negatives are met with challenges.
    Everyone is going to have their stance on topics. Some more passionate than others. Frequent posters on Twins Daily often get caught in pages of discussion regarding topics that they stand behind.

    There are positives and negatives about every player. I personally feel that the positives outweigh the negatives regarding Drew, when you really look at everything.

    It also doesn't scream "come pay me 50M for the next four years"
    If they can get him for 2/20 - go for it. Hell I'd give him 2/30.
    I agree that I wouldn't give him 4yrs, $50M. Going into the offseason, I assumed Drew wasn't even on the radar due to his projected contract.

    The reason why he's become attractive is the reports that his price tag has come down. It sounds like 3yrs, $33M may be his ceiling at this point and I'm sure you'd agree that would be fair as well considering you'd give him 2/30.

    I think many thought twice about Garza at 5yrs, $75M, but many believe 4/52 is a fair deal, if not a steal. Drew's situation could play out the same way, and I'd like the Twins to be the team that jumps in on it.

  12. #70
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    Quote Originally Posted by JP3700 View Post
    There are positives and negatives about every player. I personally feel that the positives outweigh the negatives regarding Drew, when you really look at everything.
    And that's a fair conclusion, but the facts are still facts: his righty/lefty splits have been bad recently. Last year his home/road splits are not encouraging. He's entered the years where decline phase is very possible and his numbers hint that he may have entered it. He's had a bad reputation in the past. His last 3/4 years have demonstrated health concerns.

    The notion, and it's not necessarily being peddled by you but you're defending it, that this is a no-brainer signing just doesn't hold water to me.

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  14. #71
    Has anyone done the analysis about whether players who decline qualifying offers are getting significantly better deals on the free agent market?

  15. #72
    Quote Originally Posted by MileHighTwinsFan View Post
    Has anyone done the analysis about whether players who decline qualifying offers are getting significantly better deals on the free agent market?
    OK, it was a dumb question. Last year everyone got better deals.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/quali...ine-a-rundown/

    But you have to wonder if Morales, Drew and Cruz will make out better.

  16. #73
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    I disagree - any attempt to post his weaknesses or reasons for hesitation are immediately met with rebuke. There are positives and there are negatives with him,but only the negatives are met with challenges.

    If they can get him for 2/20 - go for it. Hell I'd give him 2/30. I just don't want to commit longterm to a guy who is showing red flags of decline.
    I don't understand one bit why people would give him 2/30 and not 3/33. It really boggles my mind.

  17. #74
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    Maybe instead they are looking into making a trade. Maybe with the A's.

    Maybe for Nick Punto.

  18. #75
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    And that's a fair conclusion, but the facts are still facts: his righty/lefty splits have been bad recently. Last year his home/road splits are not encouraging. He's entered the years where decline phase is very possible and his numbers hint that he may have entered it. He's had a bad reputation in the past. His last 3/4 years have demonstrated health concerns.
    And despite all that he was still a 3.1 win player last year. Which is in line with his previous three full seasons where on average he was a 3.2 win player. He was also on his way to a 3+ win season in 2011 when he got hurt.

    His bad or good reputation is all hearsay. Neither you or I know who he is or what he brings to the team in that regard, so I'd think it's fair to leave that out.

    The health concerns are based on one injury that he seems to have recovered from. Considering how good he was in 2013 and that he showed no lingering effects from it.

    The notion, and it's not necessarily being peddled by you but you're defending it, that this is a no-brainer signing just doesn't hold water to me.
    No signing is a no-brainer. You have to weigh everything and put a proper valuation on the player. I have him being well worth $33M over the next three years, so anything at or below that price is something I'd jump at. I'm not sure how you can disagree considering you mentioned you'd sign him for 2/30.

  19. #76
    Senior Member All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JP3700 View Post
    And despite all that he was still a 3.1 win player last year.
    If that's what matters to you to project him - great. But again, it's perfectly valid for nick or the Twins to look at those other stats and project a declining player who is overpriced.

    The health concerns are based on one injury that he seems to have recovered from. Considering how good he was in 2013 and that he showed no lingering effects from it.
    That's every bit as speculative as his personality. Neither of us know what that ankle looks like and whether or not it's going to be a lingering issue as he gets older. It was an injury that cost him over a year of playing - it's worthy of concern.

    With Drew, I don't care about the per year amount. I care about how long we're tethered to a guy who I don't trust to maintain a level of play worth half of what he's asking for.

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  21. #77
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    Quote Originally Posted by JP3700 View Post
    And despite all that he was still a 3.1 win player last year. Which is in line with his previous three full seasons where on average he was a 3.2 win player. He was also on his way to a 3+ win season in 2011 when he got hurt.

    His bad or good reputation is all hearsay. Neither you or I know who he is or what he brings to the team in that regard, so I'd think it's fair to leave that out.

    The health concerns are based on one injury that he seems to have recovered from. Considering how good he was in 2013 and that he showed no lingering effects from it.



    No signing is a no-brainer. You have to weigh everything and put a proper valuation on the player. I have him being well worth $33M over the next three years, so anything at or below that price is something I'd jump at. I'm not sure how you can disagree considering you mentioned you'd sign him for 2/30.
    A grievous ankle injury in an awkward slide at home and a concussion due to a beaning are not "health concerns".....unless you don't bounce back from those said-injuries. Drew has come through with flying colors.

    The argument in this thread against Drew started with the strong objection against the deal by Drew supposedly commanding 4/$52- I haven't seen that figure bandied about at all recently- I thought their starting point in negotiations was always a 3-year deal? The Mets were balking at a smaller number with only a 2 year commitment. The Red Sox public stance is they need him for one year. Boras has already blinked, by letting it be known that Drew has positional flexibility. The price for Drew is obviously coming closer to a place where Drew could fall to the Twins- and warts and all- he would be a major upgrade at a position with no obvious help on the horizon, and represent a cost that won't cripple the franchise should it not work out perfectly.

  22. #78
    Senior Member Triple-A Monkeypaws's Avatar
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    I'd prefer to roll with Florimon-Escobar and keep the second. Drew ain't worth it.

    I believe there is still some upside to be gained with these guys.

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  24. #79
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    If that's what matters to you to project him - great. But again, it's perfectly valid for nick or the Twins to look at those other stats and project a declining player who is overpriced.
    Well, WAR is the best single metric/stat to use when evaluating a player and his total contributions to a team that season. Is it flawed? Sure. But so is every other statistic that's been used to evaluate him, whether by me or anyone else. WAR at least gives me an idea of the total value he brings, weighting all those stats and factors. Considering he's been consistently at the 3+ win level for years, gives me a pretty good idea of the value he brings.

    That's every bit as speculative as his personality. Neither of us know what that ankle looks like and whether or not it's going to be a lingering issue as he gets older. It was an injury that cost him over a year of playing - it's worthy of concern.
    Of course it's a concern. That's what the physical is for. I'd trust that the Twins medical staff would be able to identify any possible lingering issues that may present itself (add snark here).

    The season he just had just tells me that it's likely that he has recovered. If the physical says otherwise, void the contract and move on.

    With Drew, I don't care about the per year amount. I care about how long we're tethered to a guy who I don't trust to maintain a level of play worth half of what he's asking for.
    So he's worth 2/30, but not 3/33?
    Last edited by JP3700; 01-24-2014 at 06:44 PM.

  25. #80
    Senior Member All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    The price for Drew is obviously coming closer to a place where Drew could fall to the Twins- and warts and all- he would be a major upgrade at a position with no obvious help on the horizon, and represent a cost that won't cripple the franchise should it not work out perfectly.
    If the price comes to that - then sure. I had read his initial demands were 4/48 and that he's still sticking to a minimum of 3 years.

    There is an awful lot of speculation about what he can be had for. I'm only on board for less than 3 years with him unless the third year is an option.

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