01-25-2014, 03:58 PM #181
This is all rather ironic, in that your support for Florimon is based on his defense being "much better" than Drew's, but when pointed out to you that at least one of the primary defensive metrics used (and the one used in Fangraphs WAR, which is often thrown around here as evidence) doesn't support that opinion, you then tell us that defensive metric isn't valid, but your defensive metric of choice is.
You have every right to think Florimon is as much better at defense as Drew is at offense. But let's not pretend either one of us can prove or disprove opinions about defense, or that defensive metrics are in any way as precise or reliable as offensive measures. For that matter, lets stop pretending we can forecast how a player that won't turn 31 for another couple months will age over the next three years.
For the record, my opinion is that Florimon will probably be a bit better defensively over the next three years. I also think there will be a huge gap offensively in Drew's favor. In my opinion, the gap between the two is big enough that while Drew will most likely be a major league shortstop in 2016, I will be surprised if Florimon is.Every post is not every other post. - a wise man
01-25-2014, 03:59 PM #182
You want to overpay for a year of him? Two years of him? I could probably get behind that. Anything past two years? I'm out, I'm not interested. And I, and others who share my opinion, have plenty of valid reasons to do so.
01-25-2014, 04:02 PM #183
01-25-2014, 04:07 PM #184
The defensive metrics almost all show Florimon was a top five shortstop last year. Drew was in the middle. I could see how someone would be ok with that drop in order to add that much offense to the position.
Florimon was a great defender and an awful hitter last year. Drew was an ok fielder and a good hitter last year. I can sympathize with the reasoning to make that change. what I don't get is trying to repaint reality to make that change even more appealing.
01-25-2014, 04:09 PM #185
Those of us who are terribly concerned about the offense have just as many valid reasons to try to remove yet another bat from the lineup that doesn't even qualify for Fantasy Baseball drafts.
Last edited by jokin; 01-25-2014 at 04:12 PM.
01-25-2014, 04:11 PM #186
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01-25-2014, 04:12 PM #187
It may not happen for Drew for any number of reasons. But that is a useful guide for what to expect from the position as the player ages.
Those of us who are terribly concerned about the offense have just as many valid reasons
Merely pointed to a metric that suggests that Drew isn't the defender you were making him out to be.
Last edited by TheLeviathan; 01-25-2014 at 04:14 PM.
01-25-2014, 04:25 PM #188
But he still was one of only 11 SS with a positive rating from 2010 to 2013. And if you throw out the defensive stats from his first year back from his ankle surgery in 2012, when he clearly was learning how to run, stop and start again (which was -7), Drew is around the top 5 for the years 2010, 11 and 13. (3 years of UZR data are considered valid).
01-25-2014, 04:31 PM #189
Last edited by jokin; 01-25-2014 at 04:33 PM.
01-25-2014, 04:35 PM #190
It takes being an "ok" defender to last that many years as a starter at that position. Not everyone can be good, he fits well in the middle tier. (And that's being more complimentary of him than, say, defensive runs saved would be to him) Now perhaps 2012's number was out of character because of the injury. That would make sense. It's also possible that year's stats are important for the sample to be accurate. (UZR is a stat often considered to be a "more the merrier" stats)
I'm not sure either of us is qualified to make that distinction, no?
01-25-2014, 04:47 PM #191
All of the reports on Drew from 2012 were that it was a very tough road he was on in his rehab and making it back to the majors, lots of stops and starts, he literally had to learn how to walk again (hence my double-entendred use of "pedestrian" above). [Have you seen the video of his injury? I posted it on the Drew thread. Gruesome.]
Last edited by jokin; 01-25-2014 at 04:49 PM.
01-25-2014, 04:55 PM #192
His 2012 UZR may be an outlier, it may not be. That's speculation I don't find value in engaging to be honest - I doubt either of us are qualified to draw that conclusion.
The best supported argument is that we would be downgrading our defense to Drew, likely by a significant margin and likely that margin would only grow over time. We'd also almost certainly be upgrading our offense.
And again, if you are willing to sacrifice that in the name of offense, I could see that. I don't share the view, however. (And I've become more and more against it as my own torn feelings on him have been met with this bizarre need by some to argue away all of Drew's flaws. I was more positive about it earlier quite frankly)
Last edited by TheLeviathan; 01-25-2014 at 04:58 PM.
01-25-2014, 05:03 PM #193
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Between the other 3 threads, I think the Drew topic has topped 500 posts. Is that a new record?
01-25-2014, 05:11 PM #194
01-25-2014, 05:17 PM #195
01-25-2014, 05:29 PM #196
And you haven't as yet, presented evidence that confirms that putting Drew at SS instead of Florimon decreases the SS defense "likely by a significant margin and likely a margin that would only grow over time." A downgrade yes, no one is arguing that..... but my stats support an above-average SS played by Drew....and by the very stats you use and the BP chart you refer to, the more athletic SS, Florimon at age 27, is also entering his own decline phase, which if I'm correct in my hypothesis that more athletic players have more athleticism to lose, negates part of your supposition that the margin would grow over time.
01-25-2014, 05:35 PM #197
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We have to have a shortstop for 2+ years. Money isn't an issue.
If Florimon and Drew were both free agents, who would you take?
There's also no one saying you can't trade Drew after the 2nd year anyway! Or just front-load the contract.
The prices for contracts will only increase. $10MM to Drew now will be more expensive in two or three years for a comparable player.
In my opinion, the biggest hurt we will get from Stephen Drew is our lost 2nd round pick.
01-25-2014, 06:21 PM #198
- (b) The Designated Hitter Rule provides as follows:
(1) A hitter may be designated to bat for the starting pitcher and all subsequentpitchers in any game without otherwise affecting the status of the pitcher(s) inthe game.
The DH itself is still optional in any given game; but the position DHed for must be pitcher position. Poorly written rule, to my mind.
And there's no way to jigger it like having Florimon pitch to the leadoff guy and then go play short unless we wanted to do the pincher hitter in the 1st inning thing (discussed on another thread). We're stuck with Florimon's bat, like it or not. Unless we sign Drew. Hey, somebody should start a thread on thatÖÖÖ..
- (b) The Designated Hitter Rule provides as follows:
01-25-2014, 06:40 PM #199
01-25-2014, 07:03 PM #200
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This is not to enter into a Drew vs Florimon thing but 2 questions
1. What top level player without injury concerns has signed less than a 4 year contract the last couple of years? In figuring out whether or not Drew is worth a contract, I would think that it would be for 4 years.
2. What shortstops in Drew's talent range was consistently playing 120 games a year into their mid 30's. If you are going to be paying someone the kind of contract Drew is supposed to get, it would be reasonable to think that he would play in the field 3/4 of the time.