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Thread: Miguel Sano: I expect 45 HR this year, and 120 BB

  1. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by Linus View Post
    With all due respect, difficult is a severe understatement. How many players have played for the Twins since 1961 and there has been one guy to do it? That's quite a bit more than difficult. And while I respect the scouting rating, the difference is that is projection (opinion) and the lack of people ever accomplishing this feat is fact. It would be interesting to find out what percentage of players in the history of MLB have ever hit 40 homers in a season - it would be a miniscule number.
    As are the number of players who came into the league with an 80 power rating. Sano not only has gotten the rating from respected multiple services that rarely, if ever, hand out that rating, he has done things in 2013 in the FSL that were unprecedented and at least give credence to the possbility- at least 1-3%.

    (His cause would be greatly aided if he had a proven major leaguer like Kendrys Morales batting behind him in the order, or if Arcia somehow hits his full offensive ceiling).

  2. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    As are the number of players who came into the league with an 80 power rating. Sano not only has gotten the rating from respected multiple services that rarely, if ever, hand out that rating, he has done things in 2013 in the FSL that were unprecedented and at least give credence to the possbility- at least 1-3%.

    (His cause would be greatly aided if he had a proven major leaguer like Kendrys Morales batting behind him in the order, or if Arcia somehow hits his full offensive ceiling).
    Well, now we can agree - I won't argue with 1-3% but that was not the prevailing sentiment in the thread. And Morales isn't really going to help him much as Sano will be in Rochester

  3. #43
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    I don't think so. Granted only 1 has done it, but we have NEVER had a power hitter like this. 30 taters then 35 taters with a lot of missed time in the second year? I agree it's a stretch but everything about Sano has been a stretch. The stretch to me will be 120 BB's. If he hits that number, he's learned to wait for HS pitch and...LOOK OUT!

  4. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by Linus View Post
    Well, now we can agree - I won't argue with 1-3% but that was not the prevailing sentiment in the thread. And Morales isn't really going to help him much as Sano will be in Rochester
    Hopefully, not for very long....

  5. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by Linus View Post
    It would be interesting to find out what percentage of players in the history of MLB have ever hit 40 homers in a season - it would be a miniscule number.
    Small, yes. But this needs some context. As Sano isn't just any random MLB player and his odds of hitting 40 HR.

    I think Sano said 40 HR this year (joking, but serious) and wasn't persay at the MLB level, though I imagine some of his 40 total would include MLB level.

    But a more contextually relevant comparison is 40 HR for 'power prospects' who were top 10 Baseball America prospects (longer history than BP or MLB, more data points). Maybe look at top 10 prospects, top 20 prospects, top 100...given they are 'power projected' prospects.

    And this is 40 HR in the majors, or just in a season? e.g. Stanton in 2010 (21 at AA, 22 at MLB, 43 total)

    I've seen 70 grades go for 27-34 HR...and some weighted standard error with SD's that would give a 70 grade 30-38 HR.

    Here's some prospects from BA's 1990.

    I've seen some scouting reports on Frank Thomas while at Auburn, most gave him a 70 or 80. I can't find anything concrete on Juan Gonzalez, whether 70 or 80 power grade at that age. I see one scouting report for Greg Vaughn saying 'plus' power potential, which is only a 60 grade...but he did hit 40 HR. Clearly power was seen there, but maybe not a 'power prospect'

    Cant' find anything on Eric Anthony.

    Reggie Jefferson, Bobe Hamelin, Dean Palmer, Tino Martinez, Larry Walker, Glenallen Hill, Phil Plantier might be potential 70 grade power guys or 60. Maybe include them all?

    This is a very curious study...might be higher than one might think.

    Jefferson and Hameline never were healthy for a full season. Palmer hit 38 twice. Martinez and Walker both hit 40+. Hill only had 31 in the minors, 29 in the majors. Plantier hit 34 in his only full season in the Majors.

    So out of 11 'power-ish' guys, 5 managed 40 bombs in a season, and Palmer had a few seasons of 38.

  6. #46
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    BA top 100 list for 1990. Position players only.



    Rank Prospect Name Pos
    3 John Olerud 1B
    4 Juan Gonzalez RF-LF
    5 Sandy Alomar C
    7 Todd Zeile 3B-1B
    8 Eric Anthony RF-LF
    9 Greg Vaughn LF
    10 Jose Offerman SS-2B
    12 Delino DeShields 2B
    15 Robin Ventura 3B
    17 Marquis Grissom CF
    19 Ray Lankford LF
    22 Ty Griffin SS
    24 Mark Lewis 2B-3B
    25 Wes Chamberlain RF-LF
    28 Reggie Jefferson 1B-LF
    29 Frank Thomas 1B-DH
    30 Tom Goodwin CF-LF
    31 Bob Hamelin 1B
    33 Dean Palmer 3B
    34 Braulio Castillo CF-RF
    37 Moises Alou LF-RF
    38 Willie Ansley OF
    39 Travis Fryman 3B-SS
    40 Tino Martinez 1B
    41 Mickey Morandini 2B
    42 Larry Walker RF
    43 Donald Harris CF-RF
    44 Earl Cunningham OF
    49 Glenallen Hill RF-LF
    52 Steve Hosey RF
    53 Deion Sanders CF-LF
    54 Felix Jose RF
    55 Andujar Cedeno SS
    57 Rico Brogna 1B
    58 Tom Redington 3B
    59 Manny Alexander SS-2B
    62 Wil Cordero LF-SS
    63 Eric Wedge C
    65 Todd Hundley C
    66 Willie Greene 3B
    67 Carlos Baerga 2B
    68 Scott Cooper 3B-1B
    70 Rick Wilkins C
    71 Darren Lewis CF
    72 Derrick May LF
    74 Dan Peltier RF-1B
    75 Derek Bell RF-CF
    76 Mo Vaughn 1B
    77 Bernie Williams CF
    79 Mickey Pina OF
    82 Kevin Belcher CF-RF
    83 Phil Plantier LF-RF
    84 Eric Karros 1B
    89 Thomas Howard LF-CF
    91 Paul Sorrento 1B
    92 Tyler Houston 3B-C
    93 David Segui 1B
    94 Scott Coolbaugh 3B
    97 Brian Jordan RF-LF
    99 Jose Vizcaino SS-2B

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    For 1991, Baseball America top 100, position players only...who are the '70-80' grade power guys?

    I see Mo Vaughn getting some 80 grade powers, he did hit 40 HR. Tino had a 70 grade by some.

    Palmer, in one scouting report says 'power bat'...but no grades. Couldn't find anyone else, by minor league stats or reports to be any sort of power prospect.

    Klesko has a 60 grade in one report.

    Rank Prospect Name Pos
    2 Andujar Cedeno SS
    3 Ryan Klesko LF-1B
    4 Jose Offerman SS-2B
    7 Ivan Rodriguez C
    8 Reggie Sanders RF-LF
    9 Mark Lewis 2B-3B
    10 Mo Vaughn 1B
    11 Bernie Williams CF
    12 Wil Cordero LF-SS
    13 Rondell White LF-CF
    14 Raul Mondesi RF-CF
    17 Tim Costo RF-1B
    18 Tino Martinez 1B
    20 Jeff McNeely CF
    22 Eddie Zosky SS
    23 Royce Clayton SS
    25 Mark Whiten RF-LF
    28 Tyler Houston 3B-C
    29 Henry Rodriguez LF
    30 Hensley Meulens LF
    31 Marc Newfield LF
    32 Jeff Bagwell 1B
    35 Rico Brogna 1B
    37 Willie Greene 3B
    39 Gary Scott 3B
    44 D.J. Dozier LF
    45 Jeff Conine 1B-LF
    46 Tim Naehring 3B-2B
    47 Brook Fordyce C
    49 Chipper Jones 3B
    51 Ray Lankford LF
    52 Steve Decker C
    55 Wes Chamberlain RF-LF
    59 Todd Hundley C
    60 Dean Palmer 3B
    61 Leo Gomez 3B
    62 Carlos Garcia 2B
    64 Greg Blosser LF
    67 Kerwin Moore CF
    68 Pat Kelly 2B
    70 Dave Staton 1B
    72 Chuck Knoblauch 2B
    73 Tim Salmon RF
    74 Tom Goodwin CF-LF
    75 Kenny Lofton CF
    78 Reggie Jefferson 1B-LF
    82 Ricky Gutierrez SS
    83 Steve Hosey RF
    85 Greg Colbrunn 1B
    87 Earl Cunningham OF
    88 Carl Everett CF-RF
    92 William Suero 2B
    93 Jim Thome DH
    94 Eric Karros 1B
    95 Dan Wilson C
    96 Willie Ansley OF
    99 Bret Boone 2B
    100 Dan Peltier RF-1B
    Last edited by twinsfan34; 01-29-2014 at 01:37 AM.

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  10. #48
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    There were some pretty good players on that list...

  11. #49
    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    As are the number of players who came into the league with an 80 power rating. Sano not only has gotten the rating from respected multiple services that rarely, if ever, hand out that rating, he has done things in 2013 in the FSL that were unprecedented and at least give credence to the possbility- at least 1-3%.

    (His cause would be greatly aided if he had a proven major leaguer like Kendrys Morales batting behind him in the order, or if Arcia somehow hits his full offensive ceiling).
    80 grade power is definitely rare. Though, it's not as rare as other tools being a legit 80. An 80 hit tool is something I don't remember seeing put on anyone in recent years. Or an 80 changeup, that's extremely rare in the minors.

    Guys with 80 grade power in recent years:

    Miguel Sano
    Javier Bias (not sure its consensus but seems to be thrown around a lot)
    Joey Gallo (may never make the majors)
    Bryce Harper
    Mike Stanton

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  13. #50
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    OK - I like optimism as well as the next guy. But to introduce a different angle let's predict what we think will happen, not if we happen to pull the winning lottery ticket. How about an over / under - here is mine: 18 homers in Rochester (half season); 8 in Minnesota for a total of 26.

  14. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by Linus View Post
    OK - I like optimism as well as the next guy. But to introduce a different angle let's predict what we think will happen, not if we happen to pull the winning lottery ticket. How about an over / under - here is mine: 18 homers in Rochester (half season); 8 in Minnesota for a total of 26.
    i'll bite. 15 taters in Rochester by June 1. Called up and then 30 more in the bigs. Total 45. Gee whiz, he is good!

  15. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by Turd Furgeson View Post
    80 grade power is definitely rare. Though, it's not as rare as other tools being a legit 80. An 80 hit tool is something I don't remember seeing put on anyone in recent years. Or an 80 changeup, that's extremely rare in the minors.

    Guys with 80 grade power in recent years:

    Miguel Sano
    Javier Bias (not sure its consensus but seems to be thrown around a lot)
    Joey Gallo (may never make the majors)
    Bryce Harper
    Mike Stanton
    Am I missing something about Gallo? I mean he will move to first or DH, but is there something else here? The guy is very, very good.

  16. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by Linus View Post
    OK - I like optimism as well as the next guy. But to introduce a different angle let's predict what we think will happen, not if we happen to pull the winning lottery ticket. How about an over / under - here is mine: 18 homers in Rochester (half season); 8 in Minnesota for a total of 26.
    Well is the over/under 26 for the year or 18 there and 8 here? I will take the over on the 26, but I don't know how it will be broken up. He should maul AAA pitching. And he is still going to hit bombs with frequency in MLB, it just might come with a lot of strikeouts so his BA will be lower. I would bet on 35 homers between the two.

  17. #54
    Quote Originally Posted by Shane Wahl View Post
    Am I missing something about Gallo? I mean he will move to first or DH, but is there something else here? The guy is very, very good.
    He struck out 172 times in 411 ABs. Sano has some issues with contact but Gallo's are much worse. He probably has more power than Sano actually, but his bat control is suspect.

  18. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shane Wahl View Post
    Well is the over/under 26 for the year or 18 there and 8 here? I will take the over on the 26, but I don't know how it will be broken up. He should maul AAA pitching. And he is still going to hit bombs with frequency in MLB, it just might come with a lot of strikeouts so his BA will be lower. I would bet on 35 homers between the two.
    How much action is Linus willing to lay out here? I'll definitely take the over he's giving....and providing he's healthy and doesn't get suspended for slow-trotting his HRs, I suggest that 35 combined is very doable- you're spot on, Shane, Sano will have his way with AAA pitchers- especially if/when the weather ever warms up.
    Last edited by jokin; 01-30-2014 at 08:07 PM.

  19. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by Turd Furgeson View Post
    He struck out 172 times in 411 ABs. Sano has some issues with contact but Gallo's are much worse. He probably has more power than Sano actually, but his bat control is suspect.
    A 19 year old Thome-body-in-the-making, who just hit 40 HRs in 400 ABs in 2013, probably shouldn't be casually dismissed as a future major-leaguer out of hand....but I'm glad we have Sano instead of a future 3 True Outcome guy.

  20. #57
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    On Gallo:

    Curious, did he make any Top 100/101 lists?

    I don't think he made Keith Law's 100.
    MLB.com had him #92.
    He didn't make Baseball Prospectus top 101.

    He struck out 37% of the time...at Class A. Progression that's like 55-60% of his MLB at-bats.

    Adam Dunn, Mark Reynolds....strike out a lot...and hit around .200, well, Gallo would be worse than that. Both of those guys did quite a bit better than he did against A level pitching.

    Here's an article by Conor Glassey on Gallo and strikeouts. Lots of precedents to overcome.

  21. #58
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    So I did some research, mostly looking through grades on found on the Top 100 Prospect lists at these websites:
    http://scouts.baseballhall.org/
    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-the-scouts-saw-roy-halladay-and-todd-helton/ Baseball America archives of players (Scroll to the bottom, click on prospect rankings/tools archives)

    These are not necessarily 'consensus 80 grade' prospects, For instance, Pedro Alvarez and J.D. Drew had multiple reports that went like this 65-70-75-80, depending on the scout.

    I left some players in the 60's and 70's to show players I found, in case there was some wondering if they were 80's or not (they may be by some scout), but wouldn't be a consensus like Sano and the others where I found it seemed to be a consensus across multiple scouts or scouting services.

    I found the ages to be of interest too. A few guys, like Cabrera and Teixeira, it didn't specifically say "80 grade" however, a few sites (BA), said "expect 35-40 HR a season" to which, if you take the grade projections, that would be an 80 by any system I could find. Some systems have 80 grade as 35+ others have 39+, either way, that'd be an '80' grade. So I didn't put consensus for them as a few other indicators said '30+ HR a season'...

    There's 13 '80 grades' here, counting Drew, Alvarez, and the others that didn't seem to be consensus. Joey Gallo is not a top 100 prospect by many publications...and also, not an 80 as they're not sure he'll ever make that much contact.

    Sano said, if he gets 150 games, he'd hit 40, 45...55.

    Bo didn't make it, yet, his high was 135 games and he hit 32 HR. JD Drew hit 31 in 145 games. I'm not sure either would have hit 40 HR though, at any point. I'd take Bo over JD. Stanton hit 43 HR in 2010 splitting time at AA and MLB. Leaving Bryce Harper and Pedro Alvarez as the only guys left who haven't hit 40 HR.

    Pretty cool. It's not perfect system - but it was a good question of guys with '80 grade' and how they fared as far as hitting 40 HR. Most managed to get it.

    And as far as Pedro Alvarez, I bet Sano could better Alvarez' numbers in MLB in 2014, no problem. I'd take the bet. I doubt the Twins would be happy with that kind of AVG/OBP/SLG though. But I could be wrong.

    .233/.296/.473 36 HR and 48/186 BB/SO.

    And because of character limits...I'll post the list in the next post...

  22. #59
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    Year BA Rank Player POS Age Grade Consensus??
    1985 N/A Bo Jackson CF 22 80 Consensus
    1988 N/A Ken Griffey, Jr CF 18 80 consensus
    1990 29 Frank Thomas 1B-DH 22 80 consensus
    1990 76 Mo Vaughn 1B 22 80 consensus
    1999 1 J.D. Drew RF 23 80
    2001 1 Josh Hamilton CF-LF 20 80 consensus
    2002 10 Mark Teixeira 1B 22 80 consensus
    2003 12 Miguel Cabrera 3B 20 80
    2004 10 Prince Fielder 1B 20 80 consensus
    2005 27 Ryan Howard 1B 25 80 consensus
    2009 16 Giancarlo Stanton RF 19 80 consensus
    2010 8 Pedro Alvarez 3B 23 80
    2011 1 Bryce Harper CF-RF 18 80 consensus
    2011 60 Miguel Sano 3B 18 80 consensus
    1990 4 Juan Gonzalez RF-LF 20 70
    1990 33 Dean Palmer 3B 21 70
    1990 40 Tino Martinez 1B 22 70
    1991 18 Tino Martinez 1B 23 70
    1991 60 Dean Palmer 3B 22 70
    1993 4 Carlos Delgado 1B 21 70
    1993 13 Manny Ramirez DH 21 70
    1994 1 Cliff Floyd LF-OF 21 70
    1994 5 Carlos Delgado 1B 22 70
    1994 6 Alex Rodriguez 3B 18 70
    1994 7 Manny Ramirez DH 22 70
    1995 1 Alex Rodriguez 3B 19 70
    1997 2 Vladimir Guerrero LF 22 70
    2000 24 Drew Henson 3B 20 70
    2000 56 Adam Dunn DH-1B 20 70
    2012 10 Wil Myers CF 20 70
    1990 9 Greg Vaughn LF 24 60
    1990 42 Larry Walker RF 23 60
    1991 73 Tim Salmon RF 22 60
    1991 93 Jim Thome DH 20 60
    1993 5 Tim Salmon RF 24 60
    1993 20 Javy Lopez C 22 60
    1993 30 Phil Nevin 3B-1B 22 60
    1994 17 Javy Lopez C 23 60
    1995 38 Paul Konerko 1B 19 60
    1997 19 Richard Hidalgo RF-CF 21 60
    1999 13 Lance Berkman 1B 23 60
    1999 29 Russell Branyan 1B 23 60

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