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Thread: Baseball prospectus rankings

  1. #1
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    Baseball prospectus rankings

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...rticleid=22670

    Buxton - 1
    Sano - 14
    Meyer - 32
    Stewart - 54
    Pinto - 56
    Rosario - 60
    Berrios - 75
    Thorpe - 101

    Eight players is pretty good. Astros had 5, Red Sox 6, Cubs and Pirates 7.

    Surprised on how low Sano and Stewart were.

  2. #2
    I'm surprised about Sano's ranking too, but the overall presence on the list speaks well of the system's depth. To have the Twins system represent about 1/13 of the list in a league of 30 teams is not bad.

  3. #3
    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    Sano at 14 is kind of silly, in my opinion. But, that is the beauty of these types of lists. For us to argue about.

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    Pinto and Rosario are higher than I expected. Sano and and Stewart seem a bit lower than I would have thought, especially Sano.

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  6. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seth Stohs View Post
    Sano at 14 is kind of silly, in my opinion. But, that is the beauty of these types of lists. For us to argue about.
    Its not a concern for me because the whole world besides this list puts him at 2,3, or 4. It would be interesting to hear them explain their reasons. 2 or 14, he is still going to mash.

  7. #6
    Twins News Team All-Star PseudoSABR's Avatar
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    I wonder if Sano's health played a concern, as it's only recently that our own worries about his shoulder have been assuaged.

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    Sano at 14 is definitely the outlier and Stewart has all the talent to be a star, but he has to pitch full season ball to earn top30 territory in my opinion. Pinto, at 56, seems very high to me. Seeing Berrios at 75 gives me more and more confidence.

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    An odd list, for sure. Sano at 14, Berrios/Rosario behind Pinto.

    *scratches head*

  10. #9
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    Some things that stick out to me:

    1. Pinto is the 4th-highest ranked catcher at #56.
    2. Five of the top seven prospects are SS's, 9 in total, which bodes well for finding an alternative to Florimon via trade in the near future.
    3. Compared to our 8 selections, Detroit (1, #37), Chicago (2, #'s 67 and 93), and Cleveland (2, #'s 6 and 36) have a total of 5.
    4. KC has four pitchers on the list, three in the top 50, and 7 prospects in all. Watch out for KC!
    5. According to this list, we have six prospects beter than Chicago's best. Wow, those poor White Sox fans.

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  12. #10
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    Well lets look at Sano at 14, he struggled in AA, then got hurt, or was hurt during the season,
    so to me this is ok, it just means he will have to show he is healthy and can adjust to better pitchers. at least he didnt go from #4 to off the list. Remember 1 in 4 prospect make it , and even less become stars, I think Sano will have a good career, but wether or not it is Miggy type or a Dunn type , only time will tell

    Go Sano

  13. #11
    If you just look at the position players ahead of Sano, it makes quite a bit of sense that he's at 14.

    There's Taveras, who pretty much everyone agrees is the best offensive prospect in the minor, and is on par with Sano defensively in that he can maybe play center, but will probably end up in a corner.

    The rest are Buxton and shortstops, who are likely to provide (even if they have to move to third) way more defensive value than Sano. While some of their ultimate offensive ceilings might not be quite as high, those guys all look like safer bets to hit than Sano.

    Only Baez, whose power is on par with Sano's, has shown anything close to Sano's strikeout issues. The guys who can consistently hit over .260 while striking out in more than a quarter of their at bats are extremely rare. Sano seems to have the power and patience to make up for a low BA, but there's obviously a chance he ends up a Pedro Alvarez type.

    The guys ahead of him all have higher defensive projections and (Baez excepted) more well-rounded offensive games. Sano's closest comparable in the minors is Kris Bryant, who is similarly ranked at #17.

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  15. #12
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnnydakota View Post
    Well lets look at Sano at 14, he struggled in AA, then got hurt, or was hurt during the season,
    so to me this is ok, it just means he will have to show he is healthy and can adjust to better pitchers.
    For a 20 year old to put up a .915 OPS with 19 HRs in 67 games in AA is not struggling. The last time the Twins have had a 20 year old put up comparable numbers as AA, he was the consensus number 1 overall prospect in baseball. Of course, I'm talking about Mauer's .853 in 2003. The difference is, Mauer got his numbers through OBP (.400), whereas Sano got his numbers through slugging (.571).

    One other thing: Sano's numbers at Fort Myers were off the charts .320/.424/.655/1.079. Relative to that league, where offense goes to die, it's like a 1.200 OPS. By contrast, Joe's first half of his 20-year old year, he put up a pedestrian .807 OPS. Sano only "struggled" in AA in reference to his otherworldly numbers at high A.

    He should be at least a top 5 prospect.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

  16. #13
    I won't just straight up copy and paste, but someone asked about Sano's low ranking in the comments section, saying that he was surprised he wasn't in the top 5. Jason Parks replied and said he has too many questions about Sano's hit tool and defensive profile to rank him in the top 5 - Might have to sacrifice power to make consistent contact. He could still hit 30+ homers a season, but the power might not play to it's full potential.

  17. #14
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by acrozelle View Post
    I won't just straight up copy and paste, but someone asked about Sano's low ranking in the comments section, saying that he was surprised he wasn't in the top 5. Jason Parks replied and said he has too many questions about Sano's hit tool and defensive profile to rank him in the top 5 - Might have to sacrifice power to make consistent contact. He could still hit 30+ homers a season, but the power might not play to it's full potential.
    Again, he hit .340 as a 20-year old in a league full of college kids.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

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    I don't have a huge problem with Sano's ranking. I think Buxton is clearly #1 and Bogaerts/OT #2/3. Then I think there are about 8 guys you can put into 4-12 into any reasonable order and I was a bit surprised not to see Sano in there. But BP seems to have done a run of shortstops and RHP before Sano. Sano's still the top ranked thirdbaseman and BP knocked a bunch of high k guys a bit - Bryant and Springer.

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  20. #16
    Senior Member All-Star JB_Iowa's Avatar
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    Nobody should have any problem with any of the rankings.

    Rankings are always just someone's opinion. The only thing that matters is what happens when they play (as long as they keep their noses relatively clean off the field).

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  22. #17
    Sano's "low" ranking would probably have to do with some of the contact struggles he had in AA. It's a legitimate concern, because it will make or break his career.

    I also think Parks overvalues Lindor here, and probably a few of the pitching prospects. Most lists will have Sano either in the top 5 or top 10.

  23. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
    For a 20 year old to put up a .915 OPS with 19 HRs in 67 games in AA is not struggling. The last time the Twins have had a 20 year old put up comparable numbers as AA, he was the consensus number 1 overall prospect in baseball. Of course, I'm talking about Mauer's .853 in 2003. The difference is, Mauer got his numbers through OBP (.400), whereas Sano got his numbers through slugging (.571).

    One other thing: Sano's numbers at Fort Myers were off the charts .320/.424/.655/1.079. Relative to that league, where offense goes to die, it's like a 1.200 OPS. By contrast, Joe's first half of his 20-year old year, he put up a pedestrian .807 OPS. Sano only "struggled" in AA in reference to his otherworldly numbers at high A.

    He should be at least a top 5 prospect.

    He raked against the bottom 3rd pitchers and struggled against the top 3rd....
    and if you say he didnt struggle , why did he drop 11 places?

  24. #19
    I'm actually impressed that Miguel ended the season with a .230 batting average. It was hovering around .100 for about the first two weeks.

  25. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Turd Furgeson View Post
    I'm actually impressed that Miguel ended the season with a .230 batting average. It was hovering around .100 for about the first two weeks.
    That is a very good sign , I was just trying to explain his drop on the list....Sano and all players will struggle at times during there careers, the good ones adjust , those who dont , end up have very short careers...Me thinks Miguel will have a long career...

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