02-03-2014, 12:42 PM #61
Hicks could become that >.350 OBP hitter, but do you think the odds of that are significantly greater than 50% (aka, likely)?
02-03-2014, 12:44 PM #62"If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."
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02-03-2014, 12:50 PM #63"If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."
02-03-2014, 01:02 PM #64
Point being, I think Aaron will strike out too much in MLB to consistently reach a .350 OBP. I'd be happy to be wrong.
02-03-2014, 01:32 PM #65"If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."
02-03-2014, 02:28 PM #66
We can set a few minimal parameters to find comparisons to Aaron's profile if he's a .350 OBP regular:
At least 1000 PAs over the 2011-2013 seasons, total SB > 10 (to eliminate pure sluggers), BB% > 9%, K% > 20%.
Here's the full list of who qualifies with a .350 or greater OBP:
Those guys do pretty well on the balls they put in play. I'd say that's pretty lofty territory, no? Jonny Gomes and Austin Jackson are the only other players over .340.
Last edited by jay; 02-03-2014 at 02:38 PM. Reason: fix table
02-03-2014, 03:04 PM #67
I look at Span, for example. He has a career OBP of .351. He doesn't strike out as much as Hicks, but he also has a higher GB rate, which leads to a lower BABIP. He had an OBP of .340 as a 22 year old in AA and .323 as a 23 year old in AAA. As he matured, he was able to develop a more selective eye at the plate. That's the kind of progression we can expect with Hicks, with a little higher power ceiling."If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."
02-03-2014, 03:27 PM #68
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Through Apr 13, he OPSed .155 with 20 Ks against 3 walks in 46 PAs. His swing profile looked like this:
From Apr 15 on, when Gardy moved him down in the lineup, he OPSed .597 with 21 walks and 64 Ks in 267 PAs, and his swings/pitch during this time was:
02-04-2014, 08:26 AM #69
Span has some similar tools, but K's at < 12% and can't be used as a comp for OBP.
Last edited by jay; 02-04-2014 at 08:28 AM.