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Thread: Twins Sign Matt Guerrier to Minor League Deal

  1. #81
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    I don't worry about option years for relief pitchers. Thanks for the polite respone, btw. Sometimes when we disagree here (we meaning all of us), it isn't always polite.

    I also don't share the worry about relief pitchers having their development stunted as much as you, but I get that concern.

    Again, I'm not saying something bad is likely to happen. I just don't agree that the downside risk (for this year and the future) is as small or non-existent as others. I also don't really see the upside, frankly. People say not to sign Drew, because he's not going to help the team compete, but are good signing a 35 year old reliever that is likely to be used in inning 5 or 6 given the current pen?

    I would rather they roll the dice on young guys. I can see the other side of the argumet.

    Finally, I think that if this was an isolated instance, I'd probably not comment on it. But with Kubel and Bartlett also being signed? I don't like the strategy much. I'm actually more worried Bartlett is up here, blocking Escobar, than I am about Matty Ice blocking Tonkin.
    Inconsistency in thought processes, re Drew/Guerrier, duly noted.

    This Guerrier signing is a head-scratcher if this team is just signing old Twins retreads simply because they're low-hanging, feel-good, fruit......AND, if it's totally at the expense of not also looking for high-reward, cheap, low-risk potential opportunities that fit in with a team that is rebuilding a base of younger, but major-league-ready, RP pitching depth......... particularly when someone like 26-year old, Brayan Villareal could be claimed from the Red Sox and then signed on a similar sort of deal.
    Last edited by jokin; 02-01-2014 at 02:18 AM.

  2. #82
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    Inconsistency in thought processes, re Drew/Guerrier, duly noted.

    This Guerrier signing is a head-scratcher if this team is just signing old Twins retreads simply because they're low-hanging, feel-good, fruit......AND, if it's totally at the expense of not also looking for high-reward, cheap, low-risk potential opportunities that fit in with a team that is rebuilding a base of younger, but major-league-ready, RP pitching depth......... particularly when someone like 26-year old, Brayan Villareal could be claimed from the Red Sox and then signed on a similar sort of deal.
    In isolation, this move is innocuous. Calling it part of a greater strategy is giving it too much thought. Guerrier has had a lot more success in his career than Villereal. So, perhaps they thought he had a better chance to be successful. Age has very little to do with it. Neither pitcher is likely to be around when this team matures into a contender.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

  3. #83
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
    In isolation, this move is innocuous. Calling it part of a greater strategy is giving it too much thought. Guerrier has had a lot more success in his career than Villereal. So, perhaps they thought he had a better chance to be successful. Age has very little to do with it. Neither pitcher is likely to be around when this team matures into a contender.
    If you re-read my words, I didn't suggest either-or, or specify any one pitcher opposed to signing Guerrier to a minor league deal; and I also agree, that the signing of Guerrier is inocuous, in and of itself.

    But, the Twins in their current situation should always have their eyes on younger, better upside talent that might be around when the Twins become a contender. Fien and Burton, guys who resurrected themselves from the scrap-heap are the guiding force for this sort of "grand strategy" and it has served the Twins quite well. And unlike both of them, Villareal is 4 years younger than them at the same point of potential acquisition, and unlike Fien and Burton, are only one year removed from a better season than either Fien or Burton ever had previous to their signing with the Twins. So while neither may or may not be likely to be around when the Twins contend, niether are Fien and Burton, but not so curiously, both of the latter two are still around, why not kick the tires on an upside guy like Villareal?
    Last edited by jokin; 02-01-2014 at 06:36 PM.

  4. #84
    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    When Guerrier was healthy, he was a pretty good pitcher. I'd argue that is high upside. The same can be said on the offensive side for Kubel and Bartlett. Both were pretty good players when they were healthy. If they can recapture that, they get flipped to a team for a nice prospect at the deadline.

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    cmathewson (02-02-2014)

  6. #85
    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    If you re-read my words, I didn't suggest either-or, or specify any one pitcher opposed to signing Guerrier to a minor league deal; and I also agree, that the signing of Guerrier is inocuous, in and of itself.

    But, the Twins in their current situation should always have their eyes on younger, better upside talent that might be around when the Twins become a contender. Fien and Burton, guys who resurrected themselves from the scrap-heap are the guiding force for this sort of "grand strategy" and it has served the Twins quite well. And unlike both of them, Villareal is 4 years younger than them at the same point of potential acquisition, and unlike Fien and Burton, are only one year removed from a better season than either Fien or Burton ever had previous to their signing with the Twins. So while neither may or may not be likely to be around when the Twins contend, niether are Fien and Burton, but not so curiously, both of the latter two are still around, why not kick the tires on an upside guy like Villareal?
    I don’t think it makes sense to assume they signed Guerrier instead of Villareal. Why would the signing of Guerrier in any way prohibit signing Villareal?

    I see these moves as a higher probability of creating assets as compared to someone like Villareal. As DTF suggests, Guerrier, Kubel, and Bartlett could bring a nice asset or two at the deadline and those assets are likely a higher ceiling prospect than Villareal IMO. So, how can the acquisition of someone like Guerrier be a bad move? Sometimes the path to building assets is not a straight line.
    Last edited by Major Leauge Ready; 02-02-2014 at 04:20 PM. Reason: Spelling

  7. #86
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer jay's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    why not kick the tires on an upside guy like Villareal?
    Do you know for a fact that they haven't?

    An important difference from Guerrier is that Villarreal was designated for assignment and, if claimed off waivers, would require an immediate spot on the 40 man roster.

  8. #87
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    Quote Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan View Post
    When Guerrier was healthy, he was a pretty good pitcher. I'd argue that is high upside. The same can be said on the offensive side for Kubel and Bartlett. Both were pretty good players when they were healthy. If they can recapture that, they get flipped to a team for a nice prospect at the deadline.




    Quote Originally Posted by Major Leauge Ready View Post
    I don’t think it makes sense to assume they signed Guerrier instead of Villareal. Why would the signing of Guerrier in any way prohibit signing Villareal?

    I see these moves as a higher probability of creating assets as compared to someone like Villareal. As DTF suggests, Guerrier, Kubel, and Bartlett could bring a nice asset or two at the deadline and those assets are likely a higher ceiling prospect than Villareal IMO. So, how can the acquisition of someone like Guerrier be a bad move? Sometimes the path to building assets is not a straight line.
    Quote Originally Posted by jay View Post
    Do you know for a fact that they haven't?

    An important difference from Guerrier is that Villarreal was designated for assignment and, if claimed off waivers, would require an immediate spot on the 40 man roster.
    The Twins can certainly do both, and that's exactly what I'm advocating for. (Incidentally, both LEN3 and Reusse lampooned the idea of Guerrier having ANY chance of making the club- Bartlett, too- Kubel, slightly better chance, but very negative on his chances for helping the Twins----- how do you conclude that they somehow have the potential to bring a higher ceiling prospect than a 26 year old smoke thrower- one year removed from a terrific year?). I prefer also bringing in guys that have a decent, and more realistic chance at helping the club- for just about the same cost! There also is a current roster spot available, and certainly Villareal can be DFA'd at any point between now and April 1, whenever the timing is right, dependent on how interested the Twins might be at retaining his services, longer term.
    Last edited by jokin; 02-02-2014 at 11:31 PM.

  9. #88
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    Quote Originally Posted by Major Leauge Ready View Post
    I don’t think it makes sense to assume they signed Guerrier instead of Villareal. Why would the signing of Guerrier in any way prohibit signing Villareal?

    I see these moves as a higher probability of creating assets as compared to someone like Villareal. As DTF suggests, Guerrier, Kubel, and Bartlett could bring a nice asset or two at the deadline and those assets are likely a higher ceiling prospect than Villareal IMO. So, how can the acquisition of someone like Guerrier be a bad move? Sometimes the path to building assets is not a straight line.
    Assuming both are free agents, once one of them signs here, the other is less likely to follow suit, just because it will be more difficult to win a job against that competition. It would be most obvious in the case of Kubel who seems to be our presumptive DU despite his minor league deal. I would guess no other DU candidates would want to sign here after that (unless their salary was significant enough to guarantee playing IME, like Morales).

    Guerrier might factor similarly -- it is already a crowded MLB pen and Guerrier is a vet and familiar with the team. That could easily dissuade similar guys from signing here.

  10. #89
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer jay's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by spycake View Post
    Guerrier might factor similarly -- it is already a crowded MLB pen and Guerrier is a vet and familiar with the team. That could easily dissuade similar guys from signing here.
    Does not apply to Villarreal. They are rather different actually. Villarreal was DFA'd and goes to whichever team claims him along with a corresponding add to the 40-man roster. If he goes unclaimed, the Sox will stash him in the minors.

  11. #90
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    Quote Originally Posted by spycake View Post
    Assuming both are free agents, once one of them signs here, the other is less likely to follow suit, just because it will be more difficult to win a job against that competition.

    It would be most obvious in the case of Kubel who seems to be our presumptive DU despite his minor league deal. I would guess no other DU candidates would want to sign here after that (unless their salary was significant enough to guarantee playing IME, like Morales).

    Guerrier might factor similarly -- it is already a crowded MLB pen and Guerrier is a vet and familiar with the team. That could easily dissuade similar guys from signing here.
    Besides pooh-poohing the notion that Guerrier (or Bartlett, for that matter) have any chance of making the Twins opening day roster yesterday evening, Patrick Reusse had this to say about Kubel in his most recent Strib blog, I tend to agree:

     If Jason Kubel has 400 plate appearances this season, the Twins will again lose more than 90 games. He’s no answer to a feeble lineup.
    http://www.startribune.com/sports/blogs/243120681.html

  12. #91
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    Quote Originally Posted by jay View Post
    Does not apply to Villarreal. They are rather different actually. Villarreal was DFA'd and goes to whichever team claims him along with a corresponding add to the 40-man roster. If he goes unclaimed, the Sox will stash him in the minors.
    Which is precisely what the Twins should do, once they win the claim.

  13. #92
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    Besides pooh-poohing the notion that Guerrier (or Bartlett, for that matter) have any chance of making the Twins opening day roster yesterday evening, Patrick Reusse had this to say about Kubel in his most recent Strib blog, I tend to agree:



    http://www.startribune.com/sports/blogs/243120681.html
    Patrick Reusse is the antithesis of Thumper Rabbit in "Bambi", who was told not to say anything at all if he couldn't say anything nice. In Reusse's case, if you can't say anything nice, you're ready to write your column. He has some credibility as a long-time observer, but the fact that he's negative about something means the sun came up. He's like the eternal Wall Street pessimists who have correctly called 23 of the last 4 recessions.

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