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Thread: Personal Top Prospect Lists

  1. #21
    Personally I like Ryan Eades, but he is ranked where he is not necessarily based on his status as a prospect, but due to the other prospects that many value more than him (actually a testament to the depth of the organization as a whole). Eades hasn't put much time in the organization yet, but I am not down on him as a prospect. A season to gauge him a bit more and he could gain real value in the eyes of many.

  2. #22
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    I saw Eades in the College World Series and I was not impressed. But I have to believe his arm was out of gas after a long season of pitching on Friday nights and sometimes on Sundays. I'd like to see him make it to Fort Myers this year and see what he can do with a fresh arm.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

  3. #23
    Senior Member Triple-A
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    Here is my top 30 list:

    1. Byron Buxton
    2. Miguel Sano
    3. Alex Meyer
    4. Kohl Stewart
    5. Eddie Rosario
    6. Jose Berrios
    7. Jorge Polanco
    8. Josmil Pinto
    9. Lewis Thorpe
    10. Trevor May
    11. Max Kepler (++) Maintained a good IsoD and IsoP in a down year. With some better health and better luck, could be in line for a breakout year.
    12. Felix Jorge (+++) K% has gone up every year, BB% has gone down every year. Could crack some top 100 lists with a good year.
    13. Stephen Gonsalves
    14. Travis Harrison
    15. Danny Santana
    16. Ryan Eades
    17. Stuart Turner
    18. Kennys Vargas
    19. Michael Tonkin
    20. Adam Walker
    21. Miguel Sulbaran
    22. Amaurys Minier
    23. Yorman Landa (+) Nasty stuff. Ground ball machine that can miss some bats. BB% has gone down every year. High risk, high reward.
    24. Fernando Romero
    25. Taylor Rogers
    26. Randy Rosario
    27. Niko Goodrum
    28. Mason Melotakis
    29. Zach Jones
    30. Sean Gilmartin

  4. #24
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer
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    Quote Originally Posted by maars View Post
    I've been messing around in Excel trying to create an "objective," numbers based prospect ranking list using fielding (including positional adjustment) and career and peak hitting performance for hitters, and velocity, number of pitches, K/9 rate, and career and peak FIP for pitchers, as well as incorporating proximity to the majors and age vs. level of competition. It's not perfect, or scientific by any means, just me messing around to see what's possible, but here is what it's turned up. D.J. Baxendale, A.J. Achter and Logan Darnell are the big surprises for me, but other than that, it looks like a lot of the lists that I have seen around here before.

    1. Byron Buxton
    2. Miguel Sano
    3. Eddie Rosario
    4. Kohl Stewart
    5. Alex Meyer
    6. Lewis Thorpe
    7. Stephen Gonsalves
    8. Jose Berrios
    9. Jorge Polanco
    10. D.J. Baxendale
    11. Josmil Pinto
    12. Miguel Sulbaran
    13. Trevor May
    14. Max Kepler
    15. Sean Gilmartin
    16. Felix Jorge
    17. Logan Darnell
    18. Zach Jones
    19. A.J. Achter
    20. Randy Rosario
    21. Daniel Santana
    22. Travis Harrison
    23. Ryan Eades
    24. Fernando Romero
    25. Michael Tonkin
    26. Kennys Vargas
    27. Yorman Landa
    28. Dan Rohlfing
    29. Tyler Duffey
    30. Lester Oliveros
    No Walker lol

  5. #25

    List

    1. Byron Buxton
    2. Miguel Sano
    3. Alex Meyer
    4. Eddie Rosario
    5. Kohl Stewart
    6. Lewis Thorpe
    7. J.O. Berrios
    8. Josmil Pinto
    9. Jorge Polanco
    10. Max Kepler
    11. Danny Santana
    12. Adam Brett Walker
    13. Michael Tonkin
    14. Felix Jorge
    15. Matt Harrison
    16. Steven Gonsalves
    17. Yorman Landa
    18. Kyle Gibson (not in the bigs yet)
    19. Amaurys Minier
    20. Niko Goodrum
    21. Alex Wimmers
    22. Ryan Eades
    23. Stuart Turner
    24. Mike Kvasnicka
    25. Zach Jones
    26. J.D. Williams
    27. Lewin Diaz
    28. Trevor May
    29. Luke Bard
    30. J.D. Hicks

  6. #26
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer amjgt's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jim Crikket View Post
    I published my Top 15 over at Knuckleballs back in November. You can click here for the post if you want to know my rationale for Meyer at #1 or for not including Santana, etc. If I had to do it over now, I might drop Rosario a bit in light of the 50-game suspension he's facing, since I do believe that affects his likely ETA. Gilmartin hadn't been acquired yet and would be considered now.

    1. Meyer
    2. Buxton
    3. Sano
    4. Rosario
    5. Stewart
    6. Berrios
    7. Pinto
    8. Polanco
    9. Kepler
    10. Walker
    11. Thorpe
    12. May
    13. Harrison
    14. Gonsalves
    15. Sulbaran
    I certainly commend you for sticking to your opinion that differs from many, but if you think about the prospect list in terms of trade value.... If we offered Buxton straight up for David Price the Rays would certainly think about it (and I would guess they would say yes), but if we offered Alex Meyer, they wouldn't be able to hang up the phone because they would be rolling on the floor laughing so hard.

  7. #27
    Twins Moderator MVP ashburyjohn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by amjgt View Post
    I certainly commend you for sticking to your opinion that differs from many, but if you think about the prospect list in terms of trade value.... If we offered Buxton straight up for David Price the Rays would certainly think about it (and I would guess they would say yes), but if we offered Alex Meyer, they wouldn't be able to hang up the phone because they would be rolling on the floor laughing so hard.
    I thought about taking that tack as well, using approximate trade value as a metric, for constructing a list to share. The same thought process as yours led me to put Meyer third.

    OTOH, I think you have to be a little careful - or maybe I should say, more thorough than to look at just any one trade candidate. With our big-three being comped in another thread with the likes of Trout/Cabrera/Verlander, it's such a broad range of skill sets that trade value will depend greatly on the specifics of whom you're trading to. In general, I wouldn't expect another GM to trade us a young but established ace for an even younger pitcher who holds out that promise but hasn't demonstrated it yet at the MLB level. And I wouldn't expect to trade Buxton for a Trout, nor Sano for Machado. So the trade value for any of our prospects needs to be blended over the broader universe of possible targets.

    I also quickly decided that this metric only makes much sense for evaluation when looking at the top prospects in our organization. Which player would gain more value in trade, Mason Melotakis or Dalton Hicks? I have no idea!

    So I doubt I'll construct a list after all. It wouldn't be any kind of independent opinion, just some more group-think as mentioned in another thread elsewhere.

  8. #28
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    Another look at my (new) top 10 reveals something interesting:

    1. Buxton
    2. Sano
    3. Meyer
    4. Stewart
    5. Rosario
    6. Thorpe
    7. Polanco
    8. May
    9. Kepler
    10. Berrios

    Compare this to the BA top 10 from 2008

    1. Nick Blackburn, rhp
    2. Joe Benson, of
    3. Wilson Ramos, c
    4. Tyler Robertson, lhp
    5. Anthony Swarzak, rhp
    6. Ben Revere, of
    7. Jason Pridie, of
    8. Brian Duensing, lhp
    9. Jeff Manship, rhp
    10. Trevor Plouffe, ss

    IMHO, every one of the 2014 prospects is better than every one of the guys on the 2008 BA list.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

  9. #29
    Senior Member All-Star Jim Crikket's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ashburyjohn View Post
    OTOH, I think you have to be a little careful - or maybe I should say, more thorough than to look at just any one trade candidate. With our big-three being comped in another thread with the likes of Trout/Cabrera/Verlander, it's such a broad range of skill sets that trade value will depend greatly on the specifics of whom you're trading to. In general, I wouldn't expect another GM to trade us a young but established ace for an even younger pitcher who holds out that promise but hasn't demonstrated it yet at the MLB level. And I wouldn't expect to trade Buxton for a Trout, nor Sano for Machado. So the trade value for any of our prospects needs to be blended over the broader universe of possible targets.

    I also quickly decided that this metric only makes much sense for evaluation when looking at the top prospects in our organization. Which player would gain more value in trade, Mason Melotakis or Dalton Hicks? I have no idea!
    This is exactly why I don't see "trade value" as the way to evaluate prospects. It might... might... be one factor to consider but as the sole or primary factor, I wouldn't do that.

    Would the Rays trade Price for Buxton? Of course. Would the Twins make that trade? No way. But I'd say it's unlikely the Twins would trade Meyer for Price either. The Rays MIGHT make that trade, because they're an organization that survives and thrives by trading established (read: expensive) players for young players with similar potential. Would the Yankees trade a Price for a Meyer? No.

    If I were the Twins, I wouldn't trade any of the top 3, Meyer-Buxton-Sano, for anything but an obscenely one-sided return.
    I opine about the Twins and Kernels regularly at Knuckleballsblog.com while my alter ego, SD Buhr covers the Kernels for MetroSportsReport.com.

    ~You can get anything you want at Alice's Restaurant~

  10. #30
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
    Another look at my (new) top 10 reveals something interesting:

    1. Buxton
    2. Sano
    3. Meyer
    4. Stewart
    5. Rosario
    6. Thorpe
    7. Polanco
    8. May
    9. Kepler
    10. Berrios

    Compare this to the BA top 10 from 2008

    1. Nick Blackburn, rhp
    2. Joe Benson, of
    3. Wilson Ramos, c
    4. Tyler Robertson, lhp
    5. Anthony Swarzak, rhp
    6. Ben Revere, of
    7. Jason Pridie, of
    8. Brian Duensing, lhp
    9. Jeff Manship, rhp
    10. Trevor Plouffe, ss

    IMHO, every one of the 2014 prospects is better than every one of the guys on the 2008 BA list.
    Ramos has a career 109 OPS+ and this will be his age 26 season in the majors. Other than Buxton, Sano and maybe Rosario nobody on the list (as far as position players go) is a sure thing to equal this performance. If Revere was a prospect, he would probably be fifth or sixth in this list. Plouffe, Duensing and Swarzak are proven major leaguers. Other than the first 3 in this list, I think that if the rest on the 2014 list have the career that those three had so far, would they be busts? I don't think so...
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    twitter: @thrylos98

  11. #31
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    Ramos has a career 109 OPS+ and this will be his age 26 season in the majors. Other than Buxton, Sano and maybe Rosario nobody on the list (as far as position players go) is a sure thing to equal this performance. If Revere was a prospect, he would probably be fifth or sixth in this list. Plouffe, Duensing and Swarzak are proven major leaguers. Other than the first 3 in this list, I think that if the rest on the 2014 list have the career that those three had so far, would they be busts? I don't think so...
    I disagree. I would put Revere somewhere in the teens on this list. I compare Ramos to Pinto, whom I have at #12. I'm not comparing prospects to current players. I'm comparing prospects to prospects when they were prospects. Whatever. It's just an opinion.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

  12. #32
    Wilkin Ramirez, Chris Colabello, Andrew Albers, Doug Bernier, Eric Fryer, and Shairon Martis-Did anyone have any of these players high on their prospect lists last year?
    How about a different list, who will make their Twins debut this year (excluding signed free agents) and the order they will appear.
    1) Kris Johnson (between Deduno, Diamond and Worley, two will be on DL, other will be traded to Baltimore, of course, so Johnson makes team)
    2) Alex Meyer (DL replacement in May or replaces Johnson)
    3) Edgar Ibarra ( DL replacement June)
    4) Brandon Waring (DL replacement June/July)
    5) Trevor May (September call up)
    6) Logan Darnell (September call up)
    7) Miguel Sano (September call up)
    8) Dan Rohling (September call up)
    9) Sean Gilmartin (September call up)

    I'm making dumb lists-Spring training can't come soon enough.

  13. #33
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by goliath View Post
    Wilkin Ramirez, Chris Colabello, Andrew Albers, Doug Bernier, Eric Fryer, and Shairon Martis-Did anyone have any of these players high on their prospect lists last year?
    How about a different list, who will make their Twins debut this year (excluding signed free agents) and the order they will appear.
    1) Kris Johnson (between Deduno, Diamond and Worley, two will be on DL, other will be traded to Baltimore, of course, so Johnson makes team)
    2) Alex Meyer (DL replacement in May or replaces Johnson)
    3) Edgar Ibarra ( DL replacement June)
    4) Brandon Waring (DL replacement June/July)
    5) Trevor May (September call up)
    6) Logan Darnell (September call up)
    7) Miguel Sano (September call up)
    8) Dan Rohling (September call up)
    9) Sean Gilmartin (September call up)

    I'm making dumb lists-Spring training can't come soon enough.
    Those players were roster fillers pressed into service because of injuries and ineffectiveness. It was a symptom of a very bad year that all of them played in the majors last year.

    This year, the hope is more players like Meyer and Sano will make their debuts than Albers and Fryer. Fryer turned out to be a find. But the others, not so much.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

  14. #34
    Senior Member Triple-A Steve Lein's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
    I disagree. I would put Revere somewhere in the teens on this list. I compare Ramos to Pinto, whom I have at #12. I'm not comparing prospects to current players. I'm comparing prospects to prospects when they were prospects. Whatever. It's just an opinion.
    Man, that's undervaluing what Revere did as a prospect. Sure there was (is) no power tool to speak of, but elite speed, elite hitting, and elite defense would make him a pretty high prospect on this years list. I'd probably have him ahead of Rosario.
    Scouting Report: Tools - Power: 30, Hitting: 50, Arm: 60, Defense: 40, Speed: 40. "Line drive swing and shows good contact and on-base abilities. Double's power at his peak. Strong arm from 2B or the OF, stiff hands. Not a fast runner, but above average instincts on the bases. Skinny body doesn't look the part, but can sneak up on you. ACL surgery sapped much of his athleticism." (Probably)
    Spring Training Regular since 2011.

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