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Thread: 2014 MLB Draft Thread

  1. #381
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    If the Twins draft Jackson, do you move him to the outfield immediately to stave off concussion risk or catching related decline?
    Or, try to keep him at C?

    Sounds to me like his bat is plenty good to stick in the OF.

  2. #382
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willihammer View Post
    If the Twins draft Jackson, do you move him to the outfield immediately to stave off concussion risk or catching related decline?
    Or, try to keep him at C?

    Sounds to me like his bat is plenty good to stick in the OF.
    I would move him to RF right after drafting him. His bat is way too valuable to have it sit in the minors for 5+ years. I think if his hit tool is as good as reported he could be on a Buxton time table.

  3. #383
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmb0252 View Post
    I would move him to RF right after drafting him. His bat is way too valuable to have it sit in the minors for 5+ years. I think if his hit tool is as good as reported he could be on a Buxton time table.
    There is the issue for me. You have to balance best player available with the position. If this kid was going to hit like Bryce Harper, he would not be available at #5.

    We are absolutely loaded in the OF. Buxton, Arcia, Hicks, Rosario, Harrison maybe, Kepler.

    Option A - Take Jackson. Compare his value to the best two of the above (less Buxton), or a FA bat we can sign. They are always available.

    Option B - Take one of the SS. Compare there value with what we have at that position. The free agent market is usually quite thin at SS. Guys like Andrus are getting $120M these days....

    Option C - Take the best arm. Compare his value to who will likely be our 5th starter. We are never going to sign an arm like that on the free agent market.

    My opinion is option B or C is the way to go. BPA is great, but so are the factors or supply and demand.

  4. #384
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    I would also move him, but I don't run the Twins (which is probably good for everyone).
    Lighten up Francis....

  5. #385
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    I disagree......they aren't loaded in teh OF at all. They also need a DH and 1B. If this guy is a legit big time hitter, take him and move him.
    Lighten up Francis....

  6. #386
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    There is the issue for me. You have to balance best player available with the position. If this kid was going to hit like Bryce Harper, he would not be available at #5.

    We are absolutely loaded in the OF. Buxton, Arcia, Hicks, Rosario, Harrison maybe, Kepler.

    Option A - Take Jackson. Compare his value to the best two of the above (less Buxton), or a FA bat we can sign. They are always available.

    Option B - Take one of the SS. Compare there value with what we have at that position. The free agent market is usually quite thin at SS. Guys like Andrus are getting $120M these days....

    Option C - Take the best arm. Compare his value to who will likely be our 5th starter. We are never going to sign an arm like that on the free agent market.

    My opinion is option B or C is the way to go. BPA is great, but so are the factors or supply and demand.
    If you think Gordon/Turner are equally as talented as Jackson then sure, draft a needed position. If you feel Jackson is a better prospect than Gordon/Turner, most experts would agree, then you have to take the most talented player. You can't draft based on big league needs. We didn't need a CF prospect when we drafted Buxton but that's turned out pretty well for us.

  7. #387
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    I disagree......they aren't loaded in teh OF at all. They also need a DH and 1B. If this guy is a legit big time hitter, take him and move him.
    I guess we have to disagree over the definition of loaded. By my count, here is what we have.

    On the big league club, we have a former top 40 prospect in Hicks. And a 22 year old who had a .735 OPS between his ages 21-22.

    We have the #1 or #2 overall minor league system in baseball. The #1 prospect we have is an OF. The number 2 prospect, could end up in the OF. #7 (Rosario) is almost a lock to end up in the OF. #12 (Harrison) will likely end up there. #14 and #15 (Walker and Kelpler) are OF. AND this is the easiest position to find free agents.

    So I think you must really, really be high on Jackson to pick him over an arm like Kolek, who is going to throw upper 90's and where a replacement is a lot harder to find. Or an SS like Turner or Gatewood. I would argue something like Rosario/Hicks in LF and one of these guys at SS would be a better alternative to Pedro/Escobar/Punto/Casilla/Bartlett and Jackson. Or Kolek/and one of the OF over Jackson/Pelfrey type.

  8. #388
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    On Jackson - if the FO thinks he's the next Will Myers, move him to the OF. But I'm not sure his bat is that good. I haven't read a scouting report on him in awhile.

  9. #389
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    There is the issue for me. You have to balance best player available with the position. If this kid was going to hit like Bryce Harper, he would not be available at #5.

    We are absolutely loaded in the OF. Buxton, Arcia, Hicks, Rosario, Harrison maybe, Kepler.

    Option A - Take Jackson. Compare his value to the best two of the above (less Buxton), or a FA bat we can sign. They are always available.

    Option B - Take one of the SS. Compare there value with what we have at that position. The free agent market is usually quite thin at SS. Guys like Andrus are getting $120M these days....

    Option C - Take the best arm. Compare his value to who will likely be our 5th starter. We are never going to sign an arm like that on the free agent market.

    My opinion is option B or C is the way to go. BPA is great, but so are the factors or supply and demand.
    I agree and would prefer an arm over any of the above. The Twins never, ever, ever buy ace pitchers in FA. We need lot's of chances to develop one.

    Having said that I was someone who didn't want Buxton and or Adrian Peterson because I thought we were good enough at those positions at the time and BPA was best way to go. So what do I know? It can be dangerous not to go BPA. I just want the Twins to find great pitchers anyway they can and drafting seems to be the only way we can get them.

  10. #390
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    Where did I say pick him over Kolek? Where did I even say I'd take him?

    I said I'd move him, if they took him.
    I said they aren't loaded in the OF. Hicks can't hit LH. Arcia is probably a good DH, and a good OF, but not sure. Buxton could be great. After that? Rosario clearly has issues, I wouldn't count on him being part of a "loaded" OF. And, you need three starting OF, a DH, and a 1B......that's five. I count Buxton and a bunch of question marks (I wish that wasn't true with Rosario, but it is now).
    Lighten up Francis....

  11. #391
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    I guess we have to disagree over the definition of loaded. By my count, here is what we have.

    On the big league club, we have a former top 40 prospect in Hicks. And a 22 year old who had a .735 OPS between his ages 21-22.

    We have the #1 or #2 overall minor league system in baseball. The #1 prospect we have is an OF. The number 2 prospect, could end up in the OF. #7 (Rosario) is almost a lock to end up in the OF. #12 (Harrison) will likely end up there. #14 and #15 (Walker and Kelpler) are OF. AND this is the easiest position to find free agents.

    So I think you must really, really be high on Jackson to pick him over an arm like Kolek, who is going to throw upper 90's and where a replacement is a lot harder to find. Or an SS like Turner or Gatewood. I would argue something like Rosario/Hicks in LF and one of these guys at SS would be a better alternative to Pedro/Escobar/Punto/Casilla/Bartlett and Jackson. Or Kolek/and one of the OF over Jackson/Pelfrey type.
    Arcia and Hicks would likely be in one of their final years of their rookie contract by the time Jackson is ready to play, and it's not like they're proving themselves at the MLB level. You don't pass on a guy in the draft because of Aaron Hicks, that's for sure.

    That being said, I'm still not sold on Jackson yet and certainly don't want him at catcher. Drafting a HS catcher hasn't paid off for any team in over a decade.

  12. #392
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    Where did I say pick him over Kolek? Where did I even say I'd take him?

    I said I'd move him, if they took him.
    I said they aren't loaded in the OF. Hicks can't hit LH. Arcia is probably a good DH, and a good OF, but not sure. Buxton could be great. After that? Rosario clearly has issues, I wouldn't count on him being part of a "loaded" OF. And, you need three starting OF, a DH, and a 1B......that's five. I count Buxton and a bunch of question marks (I wish that wasn't true with Rosario, but it is now).
    I was taking your we are not loaded in the OF and running with it!

    We will have to disagree on the OF depth. Seems to me if we have 5-7 really talented guys, even some that have questions....we should be able to find 3. One is a lock in my eyes. This is also an easy position to fill on the FA market relative to SP or SS.

    If we agree that Buxton is a near lock. We need Hicks to never figure it out, he is 23. Arcia to not improve defensively to at least be somewhere near average. Rosario never comes back or forgets how to hit when he does. Sano sticks at 3B. Plouffe can't justify a corner OF spot. Harrison can't hit his way into a corner OF spot (Mauer at 1B, Sano at 3B). Kepler does not pan out, etc. We don't ever move Mauer off 1B.

    if just two of those things don't happen, we should have adequte OF depth.

  13. #393
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    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    Arcia and Hicks would likely be in one of their final years of their rookie contract by the time Jackson is ready to play, and it's not like they're proving themselves at the MLB level. You don't pass on a guy in the draft because of Aaron Hicks, that's for sure.

    That being said, I'm still not sold on Jackson yet and certainly don't want him at catcher. Drafting a HS catcher hasn't paid off for any team in over a decade.
    Arcia had a .735 OPS in his 21-22 season. I think he was 3rd on the team.

  14. #394
    Senior Member Triple-A maxisagod's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    I was taking your we are not loaded in the OF and running with it!
    I think very few people on this thread would pick Jackson over Kolek right now (though that might change over the next two months). It might help if people post their top five or six players to give this topic perspective.

    Mine:
    1) Kolek
    2) Rodon
    3) Beede
    4) Aiken
    5) Jackson
    6) Hoffman

    So, assuming My top 4 are already off the board do I go Jackson or Hoffman? If Hoffman numbers keep sliding, I'm taking the top hitter, leaving him at catcher for now, and going deep in pitching the rest of the draft for the 3rd year in a row. And in 5 years If Jackson is moved to the outfield and looks ready to dominate like Myers, then I'm trade proven OF talent for pitching prospects like they did with Span. Honestly, If Hicks turns into even a halfway decent hitter, at some point isn't being traded his fate anyway?

  15. #395
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    The only "bat" worth taking over a possible #1 pitcher is the "slugger"--the guy you think is a 40-HR/year hitter. "Toolsy" (especially if using the Twins' definition) isn't enough, the guy has to be the power-hitter type. Think Frank Thomas. I think he went #5 OA when drafted--that's the type of hitter who is better than a #1 pitcher (ace).

  16. #396
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kwak View Post
    The only "bat" worth taking over a possible #1 pitcher is the "slugger"--the guy you think is a 40-HR/year hitter. "Toolsy" (especially if using the Twins' definition) isn't enough, the guy has to be the power-hitter type. Think Frank Thomas. I think he went #5 OA when drafted--that's the type of hitter who is better than a #1 pitcher (ace).
    Your expectations seem a bit high.

  17. #397
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    Quote Originally Posted by maxisagod View Post
    I think very few people on this thread would pick Jackson over Kolek right now (though that might change over the next two months). It might help if people post their top five or six players to give this topic perspective.
    Rodon
    Aiken
    Kolek
    Hoffman
    Beede
    Turner/Gatewood

    I put Beede lower than most. Questions of his control worry me a bit. I would take the flamethrower without control questions over the one with, even if I am taking a rightly over a lefty.

  18. #398
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    Are people undervaluing Nick Gordon's power projection because his brother is such a sap at the plate? I am having a hard time getting a read on him or finding stats. Has he hit many homers (of the over the fence variety) as a high schooler?

  19. #399
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willihammer View Post
    Are people undervaluing Nick Gordon's power projection because his brother is such a sap at the plate? I am having a hard time getting a read on him or finding stats. Has he hit many homers (of the over the fence variety) as a high schooler?
    Finding HS stats is always hard to do but here is Law's take on Gordon after seeing him last month:

    "This year he has come into his own as a legitimate top-half-of-the-first-round prospect, and in my opinion the best middle infielder in the draft class, worthy of a top-10 pick."

    "There's
    no doubt at all that he can stay at short. He's quite a bit stronger this year, adding 10-plus pounds of muscle, so he's better able to turn on good fastballs and has been showing more pop."

    "His bat speed is fine, and I think he's a high-average, 10-12 homer guy at his peak, with well-above-average defense at shortstop -- the kind of prospect who would go high in any draft, but especially so in a draft class light on middle infielders like this year's."

    Law gives him 50 future hit, 55 future power, and 60 future speed. Had him ranked #9 on his last board.


  20. #400
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmb0252 View Post
    He's quite a bit stronger this year, adding 10-plus pounds of muscle, so he's better able to turn on good fastballs and has been showing more pop."

    "His bat speed is fine
    Bat speed... there's another thing. Why don't we have hard numbers?

    Anyway. Another question. How much of a bonus should a player get for having two way talent. Eg. Gordon. MLB.com ranks his FB and CB as above average, in addition to his SS skills which all grade between 40-60.

    Is he, overall, just a slightly above average talent? Is there star potential in any aspect of his game?

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