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Thread: 2014 MLB Draft Thread

  1. #401
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmb0252 View Post
    Your expectations seem a bit high.
    Teams should aim high. Taking the "safe" pick doesn't make sense. #1 pitchers (when you actually get one!) are so valuable. Sluggers, are worth more. The salaries in MLB reflect the value of stars vs. "good" players. Stars can be traded for a potential treasure chest of talent.

  2. #402
    With a top 5 pick you want to draft for start potential. Definitely pick BPA, no question about it. Whatever perceived strength we have now will be different in 4-5 years when whoever we pick should be ready to contribute. Barring injury or an arm falling off, the top 4 seems pretty steady with Aiken/Kolek/Hoffman/Rodon in whatever order. Pick 5 is entirely more interesting. These are my top options for the Twins if those four are gone. I don't think there is much separation between them at this point but I am no scout and have not seen any of them live:

    Jackson - most scouting reports say he has the best bat in the draft, too bad info on him is so hard to find. Looks like a gamer though with mature build and intensity to match. I bet his gets after it level is through the roof. Gardy, for one, places high value on that "tool".
    Holmes - may have best three pitch ceiling with ability to command each offering. Thick, not much projection left but current ability is very good. On a side note, instead of Holmsy would Gardy call him Meat (as in Head)? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SnJyE0bM4C8)
    Beede - looked so good early, struggling so much now. Could be great if... Can he show the ability to make adjustments and get back on track to finish the year as strong as he started?
    Gordon - solid across the board tools at premium position, high baseball IQ. Lots of projection with bat as he could add another 20+ lbs and not lose ability to play SS at a high level. Maybe recent success of Florida shortstops plays in his favor (Machado, Russell, Lindor, Baez, Arroyo).
    Newcomb - bad competition but has the best pitching line of anyone not named Tyler Kolek. Big lefty who can throw hard and has decent secondary stuff, a bit unknown because he plays for Hartford. High risk/reward.
    Zimmer - he is raking and shows all 5 tools. Tall, athletic, broad shoulders and looks like he could easily add 20-30 lbs. Could have big time power. Bonus that his brother is in KC and has improved greatly every year in college and now the minors. If his track record of success was longer he might be higher on the list.

  3. #403
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    Quote Originally Posted by twinsin17 View Post
    With a top 5 pick you want to draft for start potential. Definitely pick BPA, no question about it. Whatever perceived strength we have now will be different in 4-5 years when whoever we pick should be ready to contribute. Barring injury or an arm falling off, the top 4 seems pretty steady with Aiken/Kolek/Hoffman/Rodon in whatever order. Pick 5 is entirely more interesting. These are my top options for the Twins if those four are gone. I don't think there is much separation between them at this point but I am no scout and have not seen any of them live:

    Jackson - most scouting reports say he has the best bat in the draft, too bad info on him is so hard to find. Looks like a gamer though with mature build and intensity to match. I bet his gets after it level is through the roof. Gardy, for one, places high value on that "tool".
    Holmes - may have best three pitch ceiling with ability to command each offering. Thick, not much projection left but current ability is very good. On a side note, instead of Holmsy would Gardy call him Meat (as in Head)? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SnJyE0bM4C8)
    Beede - looked so good early, struggling so much now. Could be great if... Can he show the ability to make adjustments and get back on track to finish the year as strong as he started?
    Gordon - solid across the board tools at premium position, high baseball IQ. Lots of projection with bat as he could add another 20+ lbs and not lose ability to play SS at a high level. Maybe recent success of Florida shortstops plays in his favor (Machado, Russell, Lindor, Baez, Arroyo).
    Newcomb - bad competition but has the best pitching line of anyone not named Tyler Kolek. Big lefty who can throw hard and has decent secondary stuff, a bit unknown because he plays for Hartford. High risk/reward.
    Zimmer - he is raking and shows all 5 tools. Tall, athletic, broad shoulders and looks like he could easily add 20-30 lbs. Could have big time power. Bonus that his brother is in KC and has improved greatly every year in college and now the minors. If his track record of success was longer he might be higher on the list.
    It is way too early to say the draft is set. Aiken was a borderline first rounder and moved to the top 5 in about a month.

    I find it funny, most are dead set on BPA. Yet if we went into a fantasy football draft we would all load up on RB's in the first two rounds. It is really the opposite principle.

  4. #404
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    Piece today on fangraphs that looks at how the 5 pitcher tools translate to MLB success.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-t...to-the-majors/

    By total WAR and total RA9-WAR, prospects recognized for their curveballs have more or less doubled the figures produced by pitchers recognized for their fastball, their slider, or their control.
    Looking back at MLB.com's top 50 draft board (which is getting kinda old), they like toussaint's curve the best (70), followed by Hoffman and Holmes (65).

  5. #405
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willihammer View Post
    Piece today on fangraphs that looks at how the 5 pitcher tools translate to MLB success.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-t...to-the-majors/



    Looking back at MLB.com's top 50 draft board (which is getting kinda old), they like toussaint's curve the best (70), followed by Hoffman and Holmes (65).
    Well, I like Toussaint a lot but I don't think he'll be in the conversation at 5 but Hoffman could certainly fall to us.
    Last edited by gunnarthor; 04-09-2014 at 10:19 AM. Reason: off topic to the thread

  6. #406
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    Control was 2nd in starting% but 3rd according to median RA9-WAR, and tied for 3rd in median WAR with fastball.

    Take Cole Hamels out of the top control guys and you are left with a pretty lackluster group.

  7. #407
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    Arcia had a .735 OPS in his 21-22 season. I think he was 3rd on the team.
    I like Arcia, but that's not a ringing endorsement, and it's hardly impressive for a corner OF.

    I'm not high on Jackson, but still, if he's the best player you don't pass on him because Arcia had a .735 OPS last year. You probably shouldn't pass on him if Arcia had a .935 OPS either.

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  9. #408
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willihammer View Post
    Control was 2nd in starting% but 3rd according to median RA9-WAR, and tied for 3rd in median WAR with fastball.

    Take Cole Hamels out of the top control guys and you are left with a pretty lackluster group.
    The front office should be reading that. Exceptional control does not trump exceptional movement or velocity.

  10. #409
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    It is way too early to say the draft is set. Aiken was a borderline first rounder and moved to the top 5 in about a month.

    I find it funny, most are dead set on BPA. Yet if we went into a fantasy football draft we would all load up on RB's in the first two rounds. It is really the opposite principle.
    Aiken was borderline first rounder? You might be confused with a different pitcher. Starting the year MLB.com had him #9, BA had him #9, Jim Callis had him #9, and Law had Aiken #7. He was considered the top HS left hander from the get go.

    As for comparing the real draft vs fantasy draft that is kind of silly.

  11. #410
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willihammer View Post
    Piece today on fangraphs that looks at how the 5 pitcher tools translate to MLB success.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-t...to-the-majors/



    Looking back at MLB.com's top 50 draft board (which is getting kinda old), they like toussaint's curve the best (70), followed by Hoffman and Holmes (65).
    Jim Callis said they will be updating the board in a week or two. They are still working on top 20s I think. Also, great link.

  12. #411
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmb0252 View Post
    Aiken was borderline first rounder? You might be confused with a different pitcher. Starting the year MLB.com had him #9, BA had him #9, Jim Callis had him #9, and Law had Aiken #7. He was considered the top HS left hander from the get go.

    As for comparing the real draft vs fantasy draft that is kind of silly.
    I guess I was wrong about how far Aiken has come. But moving from 9 to 2 or so in a month or two, and Rodon going from absolutely without question 1-1 to maybe not in the same time frame is my point. Saying the top four are set right now is a bit early. Last year Gray made a huge leap up after April 9th and Mannea went from top 5 to out of the first round.

    The point of the fantasy comment was we factor in position, as the difference between the first SS and 15th SS is huge, whereas the difference between the 1st and 15th corner OF is not the same.

  13. #412
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kwak View Post
    Teams should aim high. Taking the "safe" pick doesn't make sense. #1 pitchers (when you actually get one!) are so valuable. Sluggers, are worth more. The salaries in MLB reflect the value of stars vs. "good" players. Stars can be traded for a potential treasure chest of talent.
    I'm not saying teams should aim high. I'm saying asking for a 40+ HR player, 80 grade power, is asking a lot. One or two of those might be in any draft and they normally have several glaring holes in their game.

    Jackson has star potential. Here is how Law describes his bat :
    " All-Star offensive upside in the long run no matter where he plays."
    Last edited by cmb0252; 04-09-2014 at 11:35 AM.

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  15. #413
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    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    I like Arcia, but that's not a ringing endorsement, and it's hardly impressive for a corner OF.

    I'm not high on Jackson, but still, if he's the best player you don't pass on him because Arcia had a .735 OPS last year. You probably shouldn't pass on him if Arcia had a .935 OPS either.
    With a filter on players with 400 or more AB's last year, a .735 OPS was 34th among all OF. 7-8 of those ahead are primarily CF. So a middle of the pack corner OF at 21-22. Hardly "not proving himself at the MLB level". The guy hit 24 HR between MLB and AAA.

  16. #414
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    I guess I was wrong about how far Aiken has come. But moving from 9 to 2 or so in a month or two, and Rodon going from absolutely without question 1-1 to maybe not in the same time frame is my point. Saying the top four are set right now is a bit early. Last year Gray made a huge leap up after April 9th and Mannea went from top 5 to out of the first round.

    The point of the fantasy comment was we factor in position, as the difference between the first SS and 15th SS is huge, whereas the difference between the 1st and 15th corner OF is not the same.
    I understand what you were trying to get at but I feel your grasping at straws here. The difference between the two is so significant I just can't make the comparison. Unless you are in a 30 team, dynasty, single position, and minor league baseball draft I just don't see the point of comparing.

    This BPA vs need convo comes up every year over and over and over again. While you and I might have different boards/drafting styles, which is fine, in the end the only thing that matters is the Twins board. The Twins will take BPA on their board regardless of position. That is just how they draft.

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  18. #415
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmb0252 View Post
    I understand what you were trying to get at but I feel your grasping at straws here. The difference between the two is so significant I just can't make the comparison. Unless you are in a 30 team, dynasty, single position, and minor league baseball draft I just don't see the point of comparing.

    This BPA vs need convo comes up every year over and over and over again. While you and I might have different boards/drafting styles, which is fine, in the end the only thing that matters is the Twins board. The Twins will take BPA on their board regardless of position. That is just how they draft.
    I will be very surprised if we take anything other than a starting pitcher or SS. If we feel a guy is there that is hands down a better talent, we will take him. But if we grade out an OF slightly higher than a pitcher or SS, I think we take the SP or SS and I think that is the right approach.

    Look at the Vikings. We don't have a QB. You need a QB to win. They almost never hit the FA market and if they do, 12-15 teams are after him. So if we grade out an LB slightly higher, should we take the LB? Seems crazy to me. Starting pitching and QB's are similar.

  19. #416
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    Darren Wolfson @DarrenWolfson
    Now's a good time to look ahead to the June draft. Spoke w/ Mike Radcliff. #MNTwins down to 8 guys for 5th pick -- 5 or 6 of those pitchers.
    Till I Collapse

  20. #417
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    Quote Originally Posted by InfraRen View Post
    Darren Wolfson @DarrenWolfson
    Now's a good time to look ahead to the June draft. Spoke w/ Mike Radcliff. #MNTwins down to 8 guys for 5th pick -- 5 or 6 of those pitchers.
    While I doubt we have totally ruled that many guys out at this point. If this is accurate it is likely Aiken, Rodon, Hoffman, Kolek, Beede, Jackson, Gatewood, and Turner.

    Here is a projection from March 23rd, 2013 for the 2013 draft.


    Frazier #1, he went 5th.
    Denny #4, he went in the 3rd round and signed.
    Gray #6, he went #3.
    Kohl # 9, he went #4.
    Manaea #12, he went 34th.

    It is early.



    http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/...ft-version-one
    Last edited by tobi0040; 04-09-2014 at 12:57 PM.

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  22. #418
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    I'd be happy with anyone in that last. At this point, probably with Gatewood/Turner at the end of the list for me.
    Till I Collapse

  23. #419
    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    While I doubt we have totally ruled that many guys out at this point. If this is accurate it is likely Aiken, Rodon, Hoffman, Kolek, Beede, Jackson, Gatewood, and Turner.
    It is doubtful in my eyes that 3 of the 8 are bats and if there are 3 bats it is safe to include Jackson, potentially Turner and likely not Gatewood. I value Gordon and Zimmer over both Turner and Gatewood.

  24. #420
    Quote Originally Posted by twinsin17 View Post
    It is doubtful in my eyes that 3 of the 8 are bats and if there are 3 bats it is safe to include Jackson, potentially Turner and likely not Gatewood. I value Gordon and Zimmer over both Turner and Gatewood.
    Agreed. Gordon is further away than Turner but has a lot more potential. I'm leary of Hoffman's so-so Spring, but pitchers are always welcome.

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