Minnesota Twins News & Rumors Forum
Page 23 of 65 FirstFirst ... 13212223242533 ... LastLast
Results 441 to 460 of 1287

Thread: 2014 MLB Draft Thread

  1. #441
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
    Posts
    2,783
    Like
    666
    Liked 384 Times in 214 Posts
    Blog Entries
    10
    To put a final point on this, I'd say if the Twins are forced to decide between a pitcher and a bat who they value equally, then roll with the strength of their system - bats. JMO

  2. #442
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    1,149
    Like
    102
    Liked 273 Times in 197 Posts
    Blog Entries
    5
    Quote Originally Posted by Willihammer View Post
    Uh, that's just one postseason. And the Red Sox beat a Cardinals team that I think most would agree had the better starting pitching.

    But the Red Sox had the highest regular season run differential. And that carried into the playoffs. Utimately, that's what matters most.
    If you or someone wants to look over an extended period of time. I am fairly confident an average of the 8 teams in the playoffs will have finished closer to #1 in team ERA than in runs scored.

  3. #443
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
    Posts
    2,783
    Like
    666
    Liked 384 Times in 214 Posts
    Blog Entries
    10
    As it happens I do have an old file from a blog idea I abandoned. The data covers the years 1996-2011. If you'll accept Runs allowed as a proxy for ERA, the average RS-RA rankings are like this:

    average RS ranking for LDS teams: 7.3
    average RA ranking for LDS teams: 8.5

    average RS ranking for LCS teams: 9.8
    average RA ranking for LCS teams: 7.4

    average RS ranking for WS teams: 9.4
    average RA ranking for WS teams: 6.9

    average RS ranking for WS winner: 9.1
    average RA ranking for WS winner: 7.2

    Well there you go. Finishing in the top 10 in pitching/defense would seem to be a better precursor to playoff success than finishing in the top 10 in offense.

  4. This user likes Willihammer's post and wants to buy him/her a steak dinner:

    tobi0040 (04-10-2014)

  5. #444
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    1,756
    Like
    1
    Liked 103 Times in 73 Posts
    BA released their new draft rankings but I don't pay for their site. They do mention that Aiken is their new #1 draft prospect and the top of the draft is dominated by pitchers. If anyone pays for the site and wants to share it would be appreciated. Also, they will have a free (I believe) chat today as well as Law. I will try to push as many Twins related questions forward.

  6. #445
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    1,149
    Like
    102
    Liked 273 Times in 197 Posts
    Blog Entries
    5
    Quote Originally Posted by cmb0252 View Post
    BA released their new draft rankings but I don't pay for their site. They do mention that Aiken is their new #1 draft prospect and the top of the draft is dominated by pitchers. If anyone pays for the site and wants to share it would be appreciated. Also, they will have a free (I believe) chat today as well as Law. I will try to push as many Twins related questions forward.
    Law is very high on Aiken. But he tends to have contrary views of guys at times, although I find him to be pretty smart.

  7. #446
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    1,756
    Like
    1
    Liked 103 Times in 73 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    Law is very high on Aiken. But he tends to have contrary views of guys at times, although I find him to be pretty smart.
    Law, Baseball America, and Crawford now have Aiken #1.

  8. #447
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    1,756
    Like
    1
    Liked 103 Times in 73 Posts
    Keith Law chat draft questions:
    Do you think Touki Toussaint goes top 15? You had him as a borderline second rounder in your first top 50 - has your opinion changed at all in the last 20 odd days?
    Klaw (12:11 PM)
    Yes, and yes. My opinion changed after the NHSI at Cary, where he was 93-94, throwing strikes, and had a better changeup. I think that dramatically boosted his stock within the industry - he could go as high as 9 (Toronto), I think.


    What are your thoughts on LHP Kyle Freeland? Where can you see him going in the draft?
    Klaw (12:14 PM)
    I think he's a future reliever, but I know many scouts view him as a starter and are comparing him to Chris Sale. He'll go late first round, maybe in the teens.

    If they draft were tomorrow how do you see the first 3 or 4 picks playing out?
    Klaw (12:15 PM)
    Aiken, Kolek, Hoffman, Rodon. I've heard the White Sox like Trea Turner more than most teams, but I wouldn't expect them to take him with every college arm still on the bboard

    In terms of draft stock, how much of a setback is Derek Fisher's wrist injury?

    Klaw (12:17 PM)
    I think it knocks him out of the first round - but makes him a target for an over-slot deal for a team that can save money on its first pick and then picks again in the 30s.

    Sounds like Rodon is not becoming a Prior or Strasburg like some people expected. Is something not panning out? Would you take him at 1:1?
    Klaw (12:37 PM)
    He was never a Prior or Strasburg; he was just well ahead of anyone else in this draft class. But he's backed up a little, while Aiken and Kolek both took big steps forward. I would draft players the way I ranked them here: http://klaw.me/1r5SiSk

    If you were Rick Hahn, would you take Hoffman over Rodon (assuming Aiken and Kolek were already selected)?
    Klaw (12:42 PM)
    It depends on the cost, but if it's equal I'd take Rodon. Hoffman's a tremendous athlete with arm strength, but the secondary stuff isn't at all consistent and he needs a lot of work. Of course, Don Cooper will give him a cutter and he'll end up in the top 5 in Cy Young voting for 2016.

    Following up: If Hoffman and Rodon were still on the board but the White Sox went with Turner, bad decision? Better long term upside?
    Klaw (1:01 PM)
    I'm really not a Turner believer - he's a 60 runner, not an 80 runner, and I don't think he stays at shortstop.

    Turner really a 60 runner? I heard a 6.32 60 time and a way under 4 time to first. Both marks are comfortably 80's.
    Klaw (1:04 PM)
    4.20 every time I saw him last month. Better than last summer, still not 80.

    I am hoping that Rodon slips to the Twins in this draft, would you place him at a higher prospect ranking than either Alex Meyer or Kohl Stewart?
    Klaw (1:07 PM)
    Last time Twins took a, uh, high-bonus guy like that in the first round was ... go ahead, I'll wait.

    Why is Rodon high bonus? If he goes back to NCSU and has another bad year, he has no leverage. Could he really turn down $5M or whatever his slot would be?
    Klaw (1:10 PM)
    People said the same things about Mark Appel in 2012, how he had no leverage, he couldn't go back to school, and how did that work out?

  9. #448
    Senior Member Triple-A
    Posts
    305
    Like
    13
    Liked 13 Times in 7 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by cmb0252 View Post
    If anyone pays for the site and wants to share it would be appreciated.
    While the BA list is a ranking and not a 'predicted pick' list, #5 is Jeff Hoffman, RHP from ECU.

    Without giving too much the order goes: LHP, RHP, LHP, C, RHP

  10. These 2 users like TRex's post and want to buy him/her a steak dinner:

    maxisagod (04-10-2014), Willihammer (04-10-2014)

  11. #449
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    1,756
    Like
    1
    Liked 103 Times in 73 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by TRex View Post
    While the BA list is a ranking and not a 'predicted pick' list, #5 is Jeff Hoffman, RHP from ECU.

    Without giving too much the order goes: LHP, RHP, LHP, C, RHP
    Haha, thanks! Aiken, Kolek, Rodon, Jackson, Hoffman is a good top 5. I would take any of those at #5.

  12. #450
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    2,686
    Like
    309
    Liked 220 Times in 140 Posts
    So, the Fischer thing could be helpful to the Twins in a couple ways. 1) Maybe he falls to us! 2) Maybe Miami, being cheap and having 4 picks in the top 40 or so, goes underslot at 2 (say local arm Toussaint) to save money for overslot guys like Fisher, leaving one more high end guy for us at #5.

  13. #451
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    2,686
    Like
    309
    Liked 220 Times in 140 Posts
    https://www.baseballprospectus.com/a...rticleid=23277

    Scout review of Aiken (and others) "We are targeting a college pitcher with our first round pick, but Aiken would have been one of the exceptions for us. Now that he can hit a 7 (97 MPH) on the gun, there's just no chance he falls to us. Honestly, I'm not sure how he falls out of the top few picks now. What isn't there to like? You didn't need a radar gun to fall in love with him before, but now he's the complete package."

  14. #452
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    1,756
    Like
    1
    Liked 103 Times in 73 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    So, the Fischer thing could be helpful to the Twins in a couple ways. 1) Maybe he falls to us! 2) Maybe Miami, being cheap and having 4 picks in the top 40 or so, goes underslot at 2 (say local arm Toussaint) to save money for overslot guys like Fisher, leaving one more high end guy for us at #5.
    While I could see Fisher falling to us kind of like how Austin Wilson fell to the Dbacks at #49, I can't see Marlins skipping on big time talent at #2. When you pick that high you can get a discount on even top talent like the Rockies got with Gray last year.

  15. #453
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    1,756
    Like
    1
    Liked 103 Times in 73 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    https://www.baseballprospectus.com/a...rticleid=23277

    Scout review of Aiken (and others) "We are targeting a college pitcher with our first round pick, but Aiken would have been one of the exceptions for us. Now that he can hit a 7 (97 MPH) on the gun, there's just no chance he falls to us. Honestly, I'm not sure how he falls out of the top few picks now. What isn't there to like? You didn't need a radar gun to fall in love with him before, but now he's the complete package."
    Nice link. Thanks for the quote.

  16. #454
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    1,756
    Like
    1
    Liked 103 Times in 73 Posts
    John Manuels draft questions:


    • Is Aaron Nola going to be the quickest player from this draft to reach the big leagues


    John Manuel: Hi gang. Thanks for the questions. Nola's a good answer. A healthy, peak version of Carlos Rodon would also not need much time in the minors, though he probably could use a few months to just not throw his slider and work on basics like locating his fastball better and trusting his changeup more.


    • Phillies have their highest pick in a long, long time (at #7). I know they are always ALWAYS associated with the high risk tool heavy HS position player but I'm thinking this year they go pitcher. Thoughts?

    John Manuel: Highest pick since 2001, when they took Gavin Floyd. Still a decent amount of the same decision-makers with the Phils, too; I believe Marti Wolever, their current scouting director, was national crosschecker that year. All our info is that scouts expect most of the top 10 picks to be pitchers, but there's a lot of talk about Nick Gordon, the Orlando SS, going in the first 5-7 picks. That's a possibility for the toolsy HS position player, even though they just took J.P. Crawford last year. If Alex Jackson were available, I could see him here too, but I don't see any other HS hitters being worthy of the No. 7 pick at this time. I'll also throw out that the Phillies drafted LHP Kyle Freeland out of a Denver high school.


    • What are your impressions of Touki Toussaint so far this season and an early guess of where he goes in the draft?

    John Manuel: We saw Touki up close & personal at NHSI, and he pitched well considering the cold, fairly blustery conditions. He secondary stuff has been better this year, both the breaking ball and the changeup, which stood out at NHSI. I happened to talk to the home-plate ump who had that start, and he thought Touki was throwing a split-finger pitch. He was wrong; that was just his changeup, but that's how much tumble it had. He's had some starts where scouts have praised his improved strike-throwing ability as well. He just hasn't done it all together yet, and he's seen as a higher-risk pick. I see him going in the 11-15 range, to a team like Toronto or San Francisco.


    • Hey Guys, if Rodon's stock slips, is there still a guy out there strong enough to knock him down from his potential #1 slot? Even if he has an average year, his prior 2 years make him tough to beat. Thoughts? Thanks, Greg

    John Manuel: There's no if; Rodon's stock has slipped. He just hasn't been as explosive this year. We believe Brady Aiken and Tyler Kolek have nudged past him on this draft board, and if it weren't for those two prior years, Rodon likely would rank lower. I've just had too many scouts tell me they have top men, as Indians Jones fans would say, running back in to see Rodon this time of year because he may be available after the top pick or two, whereas early in the season, scouts were rushing in to see him to "do their due diligence," thinking he would go 1 or 2 and be off the board and they wouldn't have to worry about seeing him again. Maybe you didn't get a chance to view the list. It's here: http://www.baseballamerica.com/colle...hers-dominate/


    • Does Aiken have more potential than Rodon after Carlos' recent back to earth performances?

    John Manuel: He has plenty of potential; not sure he has more if you believe in Rodon's knack for pitching and strike-throwing ability. His delivery just makes it a lot harder for him, at this time, to throw quality fastball strikes. If you believe you can get him doing that on a consistent basis, I believe his pitches have higher grades than Aiken. But Aiken has precocious fastball command, impressive work ethic ... similar stuff, the body has gotten better and better pitchability.


    • Any inclination towards where the ChiSox are leaning with #3? Heard Hoffman plenty, but any chance they break the trend and go with a prep arm in Aiken/Kolek?

    John Manuel: I haven't really started trying to match up players with teams yet. I know the White Sox love athleticism in their pitchers, and I know they have been here in NC a lot this spring due to Rodon, Hoffman and Trea Turner, so if they took any one of those three guys, it wouldn't surprise me. I think they would prefer Rodon over Hoffman. If you think a pitcher needs a mechanical tweak, Don Cooper and the White Sox want you.


    • Comp Gordon with another Florida prep SS from a few years ago Lindor. Who rates ahead of who in power/ave/speed/defense/arm?

    John Manuel: That's not fair to Nick Gordon. Scouts like Nick Gordon, and he plays shortstop, but I haven't spoken to anyone who likes him more than Lindor. He just happens to be in a draft class without shortstops. Lindor was the 8th overall pick in a draft where four of the guys picked ahead of him already have played in the major leagues.


    • Is Beede a future ace or is he closer to a #2 pitcher? Is there a MLB pitcher that he resembles?

    John Manuel: Feels like more of a No. 3 type, an A.J. Burnett type in that he has front-line stuff without No. 1 or No. 2 command. I was stunned to learn that his start last Friday at Tennessee was the first time he's gone 8 innings in three seasons. He was SEC pitcher of the year last year and still never was efficient enough to go more than 7 innings. His control has improved this year but he doesn't have front-of-the-rotation command.


    • For position players, does Alex Jackson have the best chance to be an impact major leaguer? If not, who does?
    • Yes, that's why he is the top-ranked position player on our list. Scouts seem to be doubting Trea Turner's ability to make an offensive impact; I'm a Turner believer, but his swing is long and that hampers the scouting grades for his bat. His swing probably needs to change, according to the scouts we've talked to. Jacob Gatewood and Michael Gettys have that impact potential but their bats have been iffy for a while. Monte Harrison would be next for his athleticism. I like the college hitters in this draft more as solid regulars rather than as stars, but the whole industry missed on Paul Goldschmidt, so maybe there's a Goldschmidt in here too.

      • Do any of the HS pitchers have clear advantages over Grant Holmes?

      John Manuel: Aiken and Kolek do; they have taller, better frames, Aiken is lefthanded and throws more quality strikes, and Kolek throws 100 or better. He's a bigger, better Holmes in many ways. I like Grant Holmes, always have loved the mini-fro, as well as the stuff. Touki Toussaint vs. Holmes is a tough one; I think Holmes is more conventional, Touki offers more risk, but Touki's long arms, athleticism and frame are more typical of what scouts look for than Holmes, who is maybe 6-1 (6-8 with the 'fro for you Fletch fans).

    • These were only top 5-10 prospect questions. More here:
    • http://www.baseballamerica.com/chat/?1397146199
    Last edited by cmb0252; 04-10-2014 at 03:15 PM.

  17. #455
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    1,756
    Like
    1
    Liked 103 Times in 73 Posts
    BA top 50 draft prospects break down:

    http://www.baseballamerica.com/colle...hers-dominate/

  18. #456
    Senior Member Triple-A maxisagod's Avatar
    Posts
    310
    Like
    36
    Liked 21 Times in 16 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by cmb0252 View Post
    BA top 50 draft prospects break down:

    http://www.baseballamerica.com/colle...hers-dominate/
    I'm disappointed that not many of the hitters have had good springs, I like Jackson, but wish there were more players to compare him too, I still feel Gordon, Zimmer, and Turner are reaches at Five. With 3 college pitchers and 2 high school pitchers rising to the top tier, I think the Twins will have a couple good choices when their name is called.

  19. #457
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
    Posts
    2,783
    Like
    666
    Liked 384 Times in 214 Posts
    Blog Entries
    10
    BA's first half writeup.

    http://www.baseballamerica.com/colle...t-april-11-13/

    I am intrigued by Reed. Lefthanded, 2 way talent. His numbers are huge on both sides of the ball. Really nice looking swing IMO


  20. #458

    Alex Jackson

    Here is a chart comparing senior year hitting stats of Clint Frazier and Alex Jackson. It goes without saying this is not an apples to apples comp as they field different positions and have very different physical attributes and projections. As hitters, however, both are known for elite bat speed and aggressive approaches. If anything else it is an interesting comparison of pure hitting stats:

    Player GP AVG PA AB R H RBI 2B 3B HR BB BB% K K% OBP SLG OPS
    Frazier 32 0.485 114 97 56 47 45 4 4 17 17 14.91% 8 7.02% 0.561 1.134 1.695
    Jackson 13 0.436 54 39 19 17 16 3 1 7 10 18.52% 4 7.41% 0.593 1.102 1.696
    Projected 32 0.436 133 0 47 42 40 8 3 17 25 18.52% 10 7.41% 0.593 1.102 1.696

    From a power perspective their stats are nearly identical with Jackson earning a slight edge in pitch selection as he has a higher walk rate. What makes me excited about Jackson that Frazier lacks is physical projection. He is a solid 6'2" 215 lb 18 year old who will likely add 10-20 lbs before reaching the bigs. If he is available at 5 it would be hard to pass on an opportunity to add a legit 30+ homer potential bat to our system. His current power is big and his future power could be elite. I say if Rodon/Aiken/Kolek are gone and Jackson is available we should take him, move him to the OF and have him focus his time on maximizing his hitting potential instead of learning to call games at the big league level.

  21. #459
    Twins Contributor All-Star Jeremy Nygaard's Avatar
    Posts
    1,925
    Twitter
    @jeremynygaard
    Like
    1
    Liked 121 Times in 67 Posts
    Blog Entries
    178
    FWIW, Carlos Rodon looked like his old self yesterday. But he also the 134 pitches, so there's that.

  22. #460
    Senior Member Double-A
    Posts
    126
    Like
    0
    Liked 14 Times in 9 Posts
    Blog Entries
    1
    LHP Kyle Freeland has plenty helium. Great control. Solid 4 pitch mix. Or 5, if you differentiate between 4-seam FB and 2-seamer.

    All three of Freeland’s fastball components (velocity, life and command) were at least plus. Unlike many college starters, he showed the ability to get swings and misses with his fastball, producing six fastball whiffs on the day. His fastball sat 91-93 mph and touched 94-95, and he held that velocity throughout his nine innings and 97 pitches. Using both a two-seamer and four-seamer, Freeland showed varied fastball movement in every direction, featuring explosive cut and glove-side run on his four-seamer and arm-side run on his two-seamer. He produces downhill plane and sink, pitching in the lower half of the zone on both outer-thirds of the plate. Freeland, who works from the far third-base side of the rubber, creates deception in his delivery, and the ball jumps out of his hand. His fastball was very loud, as his high spin rate produced an audible cutting through the air.
    Keep reading.
    http://www.baseballamerica.com/colle...kyle-freeland/

    Hoffman has had livelier stuff than Rodon but gets hit as well, and both have fallen back to the college-pitcher pack, with Southeastern Conference righthanders Tyler Beede (Vanderbilt) and Aaron Nola (Louisiana State), UNLV righty Erick Fedde and lefties Brandon Finnegan (Texas Christian) and Kyle Freeland (Evansville) closing the gap.
    http://www.baseballamerica.com/colle...hers-dominate/

    Check his latest box score against Wichita State from last night after all of those nice things were written.
    http://www.gopurpleaces.com/boxscore...seball&id=5785

    But then again KLaw thinks he will be a reliever.

  23. This user likes Lonestar's post and wants to buy him/her a steak dinner:

    Willihammer (04-12-2014)

Page 23 of 65 FirstFirst ... 13212223242533 ... LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
©2014 TwinsCentric, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
Interested in advertising with Twins Daily? Click here.