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Thread: 2014 MLB Draft Thread

  1. #681
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lonestar View Post
    Do you think he (Gordon) would be a below-slot signing.
    I think the Twins could go underslot by 200-500K with the guy they want if they are clearly picking in the 2nd tier. That tier of draftees would be happy to picked at a little below slot #5 since it's easy for any of them to slide to #10.

    This would not be the case if the Twins draft the last player in a 5 player tier though.

  2. #682
    Twins Contributor All-Star Jeremy Nygaard's Avatar
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    If I had to re-rank the Twins board right now, it would go Aiken, Rodon, Kolek, Jackson, Gordon. I think Hoffman would be in the mix if healthy, but those five are the top 5 in my mind based on some conversations I've had.

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    I'd also not count Jackson out to the Cubs right now. But it appears the Twins are really high on him. Also, "the mix" for #5 this year looks much deeper than #4 at this point last year. I know we heard seven or eight, but I'm still hearing a pool of near 20.

  4. #684
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    Kolek was being scouted by a number of teams yesterday. The Twins Southern Scouting Supervisor was in attendance.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeremy Nygaard View Post
    Kolek was being scouted by a number of teams yesterday. The Twins Southern Scouting Supervisor was in attendance.
    I'd prefer if this scout just captures Kolek and hides him at Target Field rather than taking our chances on draft day.
    Till I Collapse

  6. #686
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    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    I think the Twins could go underslot by 200-500K with the guy they want if they are clearly picking in the 2nd tier. That tier of draftees would be happy to picked at a little below slot #5 since it's easy for any of them to slide to #10.

    This would not be the case if the Twins draft the last player in a 5 player tier though.
    I don't see us going below slot, and I would be extremely dissapointed. This will likely be the last time we draft this low in a long time and this is a deep draft. Take a good player to supplement a stacked system.

  7. #687
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    Why is the recent draft have these top tiers that our teams keep missing on?! NFL draft is supposedly top 7 strong (Vikings draft 8th), last year's MLB draft's top tier was 3 deep, of course the Twins had the 4th pick. This year the same thing. Top Tier is 4, maybe 3 now with Hoffman banged up, but the Twins draft 5th.

  8. #688
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    Also, drafting Gordon because we have a current need at SS is the wrong reason to draft a guy. He won't fill that need for at least three years, likely 4-5. If he's the BPA at 5 and the Twins want him, that's a reason to take him.

  9. #689
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    I don't see us going below slot, and I would be extremely dissapointed. This will likely be the last time we draft this low in a long time and this is a deep draft. Take a good player to supplement a stacked system.
    going below slot doesn't mean taking a lesser player. If it turns into a 4 player draft (I hope not) and the player that the Twins want to take knows that there is a chance that he slides to #8-10 then he is going to be interested in locking in #5 money minus 200-500K.

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  11. #690
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    I don't see us going below slot, and I would be extremely dissapointed. This will likely be the last time we draft this low in a long time and this is a deep draft. Take a good player to supplement a stacked system.
    I would hesitate to equate signing a player under slot with assuming that player was not the best player available. Looking back at the past two drafts, lots of top-20 picks signed under slot even though there was no question about the legitimacy of the pick. Case in point: Jonathan Gray was widely assumed to be a top-3 talent, but he still signed for over 800K less than slot (and only $300K more than Kohl Stewart signed with the Twins). From a negotiating standpoint, most of these players will have very little leverage once they are drafted. College pitchers and high school players in particular have very little to gain but a lot to lose by arguing over a few hundred thousand dollars on a $3+ million deal. If they drafted someone like Gordon, Jackson, Hoffman or Holmes, I would not be surprised if they were able to sign them slightly under the slot value.

    However, I too will be extremely disappointed if the Twins used the #5 pick to draft someone in the 20+ range and signed him for significantly under slot.

  12. #691
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    Quote Originally Posted by markos View Post
    I would hesitate to equate signing a player under slot with assuming that player was not the best player available. Looking back at the past two drafts, lots of top-20 picks signed under slot even though there was no question about the legitimacy of the pick. Case in point: Jonathan Gray was widely assumed to be a top-3 talent, but he still signed for over 800K less than slot (and only $300K more than Kohl Stewart signed with the Twins). From a negotiating standpoint, most of these players will have very little leverage once they are drafted. College pitchers and high school players in particular have very little to gain but a lot to lose by arguing over a few hundred thousand dollars on a $3+ million deal. If they drafted someone like Gordon, Jackson, Hoffman or Holmes, I would not be surprised if they were able to sign them slightly under the slot value.

    However, I too will be extremely disappointed if the Twins used the #5 pick to draft someone in the 20+ range and signed him for significantly under slot.
    Just a verbiage issue then. Almost every pick signs for less than the slot. Buxton left $200K on the table. Even Mark Appel signed for $6.35M at 1-1, which was 18% below slot. When people use the term "below slot", it usually implies they are taking a lesser player in order to save money and use it on their next pick. The Royals for example at #8 last year. They signed Dozier for $2.2M, which gave them an additional $940K to take Mannea later.

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    If they sign their 1-5 pick, it's not as if they are drafting Ben Revere. A lot of guys are signed below slot because the slots are artificial. They are just a way of quantifying spending limits.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Siehbiscuit View Post
    Why is the recent draft have these top tiers that our teams keep missing on?! NFL draft is supposedly top 7 strong (Vikings draft 8th), last year's MLB draft's top tier was 3 deep, of course the Twins had the 4th pick. This year the same thing. Top Tier is 4, maybe 3 now with Hoffman banged up, but the Twins draft 5th.
    A must add to this is the 1992 NBA draft. See Shaq and Alonzo, we get Christian Laettner #3.

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  16. #694
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    Quote Originally Posted by Siehbiscuit View Post
    Why is the recent draft have these top tiers that our teams keep missing on?! NFL draft is supposedly top 7 strong (Vikings draft 8th), last year's MLB draft's top tier was 3 deep, of course the Twins had the 4th pick. This year the same thing. Top Tier is 4, maybe 3 now with Hoffman banged up, but the Twins draft 5th.
    Probably b/c fans tend to only consider that number of players. Last years draft wasn't 3 deep - several scouts thought Stewart should go 1-1. Last year's draft did have 3 college players in consideration for the top but Stewart and Frazier were both constantly in the discussion. The Twins will get a pretty good player again at #5.

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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    I don't see us going below slot, and I would be extremely dissapointed. This will likely be the last time we draft this low in a long time and this is a deep draft. Take a good player to supplement a stacked system.
    I wouldn't... what if their BPA is a guy who's likely to go in the 9-10 range? if so, absolutely go below slot and use that towards a high ceiling HS arm in the 2nd.

  18. #696
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    Quote Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan View Post
    I wouldn't... what if their BPA is a guy who's likely to go in the 9-10 range? if so, absolutely go below slot and use that towards a high ceiling HS arm in the 2nd.
    Just an assumption that "below slot" meant taking a guy that we did not think was BPA. The Royals probably took Dozier last year with their eye on Mannea as well.

  19. #697
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    I don't see us going below slot, and I would be extremely dissapointed. This will likely be the last time we draft this low in a long time and this is a deep draft. Take a good player to supplement a stacked system.
    I'll take that bet....there is one more year of drafting in the top 10 coming, I think. But yes, going under slot is a bad idea imo. Go get the best player.
    Lighten up Francis....

  20. #698
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    This is what the Astros scouting director says of the talent in this years draft:
    “It’s a good class. There’s a lot of high school pitching this year. I’d say that’s the main thing that characterizes the class this year. There’s a lot of high school pitchers that are impact arms at the top and there’s a lot of depth to the class. I think we’re going to see several first rounders who are high school pitchers this year. I would also say there’s some power bats in the college ranks, guys who play a corner position – maybe third base, first, left field, right field in college and have done some damage during the college season. Those are really the two groups of players that stand out in this class.
    “Overall we’re pleased with the level of talent. I think it’s probably a notch better than last year’s class, it’s a little stronger and we’re pretty happy about that because not only do we have the 1-1 pick, but we have three in the top 50.”

  21. #699
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    Draft notes on Fedde, Tous, and Ramos from Callis:

    http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?...vkey=news_&sid

  22. #700
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    I'll take that bet....there is one more year of drafting in the top 10 coming, I think. But yes, going under slot is a bad idea imo. Go get the best player.
    Somewhere between 8-12 is what I had in mind. #5 in this draft and 8-12 in next years draft should be a pretty big drop off.

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