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Thread: 2014 MLB Draft Thread

  1. #781
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    I love how all the guys that have seen Gordon play are saying he'll stay at SS.....I would put faith in that unanimous opinion over fears he might grow.
    Lighten up Francis....

  2. #782
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    I love how all the guys that have seen Gordon play are saying he'll stay at SS.....I would put faith in that unanimous opinion over fears he might grow.
    I agree with you. No one is saying he won't be a SS going forward which is rare. Also, while his hit/power tools have lagged behind Nick isn't his brother Dee. He is 3 inches taller and definitely has some room to add more muscle to his frame.

  3. #783
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmb0252 View Post
    I agree with you. No one is saying he won't be a SS going forward which is rare. Also, while his hit/power tools have lagged behind Nick isn't his brother Dee. He is 3 inches taller and definitely has some room to add more muscle to his frame.
    Let's distinguish something here. A scout saying he can stick at SS and him actually sticking at SS in the Twins system are two different things. Here is a quick list of players we have drafted or signed as a SS, that were either moved somewhere else or we at least doubt can stick there:

    Sano (high profile international signing), Dozier, Polanco, Goodrum, Plouffe (1st round pick), Levi Michael (1st round pick), Michael Cuddyer (1st round pick). I am probably forgetting one or two.

    So we have a history here.

  4. #784
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    Every team drafts SS and moves them. SS are usually super athletic guys that can move around to other positions, but are better athletes than their peers, so they play SS in college and HS. There is nothing unique about the Twins here at all.
    Lighten up Francis....

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  6. #785
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    Let's distinguish something here. A scout saying he can stick at SS and him actually sticking at SS in the Twins system are two different things. Here is a quick list of players we have drafted or signed as a SS, that were either moved somewhere else or we at least doubt can stick there:

    Sano (high profile international signing), Dozier, Polanco, Goodrum, Plouffe (1st round pick), Levi Michael (1st round pick), Michael Cuddyer (1st round pick). I am probably forgetting one or two.

    So we have a history here.
    Going with outside reports:
    Sano: Every scout said he would move off to 3rd or Right field.
    Dozier: Most said he would stick, a few thought he'd move to 2nd or 3rd.
    Polanco: When signed everyone said he'd stick, grew a lot, last year people had doubts.
    Michaels: it was 50/50. He had only play short for a year, going back to 3rd or 2nd seemed possible.
    Cuddyer: I Don't remember off the top of my head, really only start following prospects when he was already a outfielder in AAA.

    The point is, it really good sign when every independent scout thinks he sticks, not just some.

  7. #786
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    Some thought Goodrum would move to the outfield if he outgrew short. Plouffe I can't recall anyone saying he wouldn't stick, and to his credit he played 3 years of AAA short, just too many miscues and throwing errors (kinda like the reports we get about Santana right now).

  8. #787
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    Quote Originally Posted by maxisagod View Post
    Going with outside reports:
    Sano: Every scout said he would move off to 3rd or Right field.
    Dozier: Most said he would stick, a few thought he'd move to 2nd or 3rd.
    Polanco: When signed everyone said he'd stick, grew a lot, last year people had doubts.
    Michaels: it was 50/50. He had only play short for a year, going back to 3rd or 2nd seemed possible.
    Cuddyer: I Don't remember off the top of my head, really only start following prospects when he was already a outfielder in AAA.

    The point is, it really good sign when every independent scout thinks he sticks, not just some.
    So Michael was 50/50 and he moved. Most said Dozier would stick and he moved. And everyone said Polanco would stick and he is likely moving. So we are at a minimum 0-3 and Polanco was supposed to be a defensive whiz who would not hit. You didn't mention Goodrum or Plouffe either.

    So for me, you have to consider the fact that with the 5th pick, a good chance exists that Gordon moves off of SS, in which case his value plummets quite a bit. A guy whose hit tool is 45/50 at #5 overall makes me think someone with more upside like a Toussant or Jackson makes more sense. Jackson is not a SS, but he is not a 45/50 either.

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  10. #788
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    Every team drafts SS and moves them. SS are usually super athletic guys that can move around to other positions, but are better athletes than their peers, so they play SS in college and HS. There is nothing unique about the Twins here at all.
    Yep, absolutely correct. I'm not sold on Gordon but I'm not concerned about whether he sticks at short. I think I'd still rather add an arm or Jackson but it's looking less likely.

  11. #789
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    tobi, would you ever sign or draft a SS? It seems not, not an elite one, because the elite ones go super early.
    Lighten up Francis....

  12. #790
    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    In response to the draft order, I am thinking we end up 8-12th in the next draft, which is not supposed to be as talented.
    The 2014 draft is exceptionally deep with pitching prospects (namely HS) but is considered weak with HS bats and middle infield help at both levels. I have also read that the top 3 picks in 2013 would also be the top 3 in 2014, although Rodon may care to disagree, especially if he was draft eligible at the end of 2013. The 2015 draft (although extremely early) is top heavy with high end HS hitters, namely middle infielders and CF. Maybe the 2015 draft is not as deep as this year's but the high level talent could be better. If we are picking 8-12 I am sure we would get another strong prospect.

  13. #791
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    So Michael was 50/50 and he moved. Most said Dozier would stick and he moved. And everyone said Polanco would stick and he is likely moving. So we are at a minimum 0-3 and Polanco was supposed to be a defensive whiz who would not hit. You didn't mention Goodrum or Plouffe either.

    So for me, you have to consider the fact that with the 5th pick, a good chance exists that Gordon moves off of SS, in which case his value plummets quite a bit. A guy whose hit tool is 45/50 at #5 overall makes me think someone with more upside like a Toussant or Jackson makes more sense. Jackson is not a SS, but he is not a 45/50 either.
    If you flip a coin three times and it lands on heads all three times it doesn't mean it will always land on heads. Gordon isn't the same caliber prospect as Dozier/Levi/Polanco. If the Twins draft Gordon he would easily be the best SS prospect we have drafted in 10, maybe 15 years. Instead of comparing him to other Twins prospects, which none are ideal matches, we should look at players who resemble his game better.

  14. #792
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    Let's distinguish something here. A scout saying he can stick at SS and him actually sticking at SS in the Twins system are two different things. Here is a quick list of players we have drafted or signed as a SS, that were either moved somewhere else or we at least doubt can stick there:

    Sano (high profile international signing), Dozier, Polanco, Goodrum, Plouffe (1st round pick), Levi Michael (1st round pick), Michael Cuddyer (1st round pick). I am probably forgetting one or two.

    So we have a history here.
    Every team has this history. Players who are really good often play SS growing up. Justin Upton, Adam Jones & Mike Moustakas were all drafted in the 1st rnd as SS but I don't think anyone thought they would play in the ML at that position.

    Sano & Cuddyer were never thought of as SS. Several of the others were given a chance until they played themselves off the position. That's the norm in ML baseball, it's not just a Twins thing. Billy Hamilton played SS until last year & then moved to CF. There is a real good chance Javier Baez will move off SS in the future.

    From all I've read or heard, Gordon has the defensive ability to stay at SS. It's a matter of how well his bat develops to warrant a high pick on him.

  15. #793
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  16. #794
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    If he was viewed as a guy that could have a .790 OPS and even have average defense, he would be off the board at #5. I have seen a 45 and 50 for hit tool, so that doesn't scream .790 OPS to me.

    The other issue I see is he is 6'1 and 170 pounds in high school. Our organization has a very, very high threshold for short stops defensively and we have umpeen 2B prospects that we drafted or signed as SS, not to mention a guy that may be there for awhile. What are the odds this guy grows off the position and/or can't meet our requirements if he is between 6'1 and 6'3 and weights 190+ pounds? If he grows off SS and is a 45/50 hitter, he is a marginal MLB player at best.
    The reason that he will be there is that there are 3 guys in front of him that have ace pitcher upside. He also has higher risk which is why I'm still leary of him but when the alternatives are #3 pitchers (Aaron Nola gets a Mike Leake comp - good ERA and 6K/9) then he's in consideration.

    I also have no idea what you have been reading but there are no doubts that he can stick at SS. A lot of the guys you have listed had doubts in the draft.

  17. #795
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    Quote Originally Posted by markos View Post
    That is one of the reasons why I have him ahead of Jackson. Just out of curiosity, how would you fill in the same sentence about Jackson?
    "I still need to be reassured that Jackson can be a X/Y/Z/(Y+Z) hitter with ?? defense at (LF? RF? C?)."
    I need to be reassured that Jackson is a legitimate bat only prospect that might stick (very little additional draft value) at C or 3B. Gordon is significantly more raw as a hitter but Jackson needs to show that his bat is fairly polished and the only question is whether or not he hits his upside (.850-.900 OPS).

    I'm not convinced that Jackson can become a regular all-star because the competition level is too high. If Gordon hits then he could be a perennial all-star.

    Holmes is the guy that most intrigues me right now outside of the top 3 and the 2 HS hitters. I'm not completely sure what to think of him yet.

  18. #796
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    Yep, absolutely correct. I'm not sold on Gordon but I'm not concerned about whether he sticks at short. I think I'd still rather add an arm or Jackson but it's looking less likely.
    I guess I don't understand how what position he plays is not at least a factor in drafting him. A 45/50 hit tool is a decent SS, but not a good corner OF, DH, 1B, or 3B. Not mention we have 4-6 prospects at 2B, a pretty good 3B coming up, etc.

  19. #797
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    Quote Originally Posted by golfboy1 View Post
    Every team has this history. Players who are really good often play SS growing up. Justin Upton, Adam Jones & Mike Moustakas were all drafted in the 1st rnd as SS but I don't think anyone thought they would play in the ML at that position.

    Sano & Cuddyer were never thought of as SS. Several of the others were given a chance until they played themselves off the position. That's the norm in ML baseball, it's not just a Twins thing. Billy Hamilton played SS until last year & then moved to CF. There is a real good chance Javier Baez will move off SS in the future.

    From all I've read or heard, Gordon has the defensive ability to stay at SS. It's a matter of how well his bat develops to warrant a high pick on him.
    Lets discuss the "every team has a history". Am I crazy to think the Twins value defense at the SS position more than other teams and that the bar to stick at SS is higher here? Would every other franchise put up with Florimon for a full season (he has 600 AB's). How about Lexi Casilla at 2B, he had 1,700 at bats here. Nick Punto, etc.

    We have used two first round picks since 2004 on SS and moved them, Goodrum was a second rounder. Arguably two of our top three international signings have been short stops that have been moved. Does every team have this track record? I think given our history, which is unusual, we should do a little more research as to whether a guy will stay at SS. That is all.

    Regarding the comps. I am guessing upton, jones, and moustakis were not a 45 rated hitter. The difference is thise guys can hit and be above average at other positions. It is not clear gordon does
    Last edited by tobi0040; 05-13-2014 at 09:29 PM.

  20. #798
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    Let me get this right. Scouts expect Gordon's hit and power to come along as he fills into his frame... but there's absolutely no risk he outgrows shortstop?

  21. #799
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willihammer View Post
    Let me get this right. Scouts expect Gordon's hit and power to come along as he fills into his frame... but there's absolutely no risk he outgrows shortstop?
    He will fill out a little but I don't think anyone expects him to be (close to) 200 lbs. He should easily be mobile enough to play SS. He should easily have enough arm. I guess there is a chance that he could freak out like Casilla anytime he has to make a routine play but he's a near lock to stay at SS.

  22. #800
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    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    He will fill out a little but I don't think anyone expects him to be (close to) 200 lbs. He should easily be mobile enough to play SS. He should easily have enough arm. I guess there is a chance that he could freak out like Casilla anytime he has to make a routine play but he's a near lock to stay at SS.
    Near lock may be rich. I am guessing polanco was a near lock as well. He went from defensive whiz, rated our best defensive infielder before playing a game according to baseball america, to no chance of sticking at ss in avery quick timeframe

    Among the guys likely to be there, i like touki or jackson

    http://www.startribune.com/sports/tw...243693621.html
    Last edited by tobi0040; 05-13-2014 at 10:57 PM.

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