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Thread: 2014 MLB Draft Thread

  1. #861
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    John Manuel posted an interesting mock at BA today. (I don't think it's been mentioned yet).

    1. Rodon
    2. Jackson
    3. Aiken
    4. Freeland - mentions that the Cubs are looking for a college starter
    5. Gordon - Kolek/Gordon mentioned
    6. Nola
    7. Kolek - specifically mentions the high number of hard throwing HS draftees needing TJ as one reason teams might avoid him.

    I like Gordon a fair amount but I would prefer Jackson or Kolek if they are available.

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    Jon Mayo's first mock.

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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    Heck, I would rather we draft Gardy's dog in the 9th round if it meant we are taking BPA at #5.
    I'm always for BPA. Always. But when there is no clear BPA (and it's rather large group), I will let money factor into the decision.

  4. #864
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeremy Nygaard View Post
    I'm always for BPA. Always. But when there is no clear BPA (and it's rather large group), I will let money factor into the decision.
    If you look at potential, Nola should not be considered at #5. Nobody is saying his potential matches Jackson, Gordon, Touki, or Freeland.

  5. #865
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    If you look at potential, Nola should not be considered at #5. Nobody is saying his potential matches Jackson, Gordon, Touki, or Freeland.
    Right. That clouds up BPA even more. Some might go with ceiling, others might consider floor. Nola certainly has the highest floor of the guys you mentioned. Touki probably has the highest ceiling.

    Stewart was the BPA last year in that his ceiling was the highest and his present tools - though far from his ceiling - were too much to ignore.

    There's no slam dunk once Rodon and Aiken go off the board, even Kolek has some questions. Gordon might be the best bet? But all subject to an argument.

  6. #866
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    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    John Manuel posted an interesting mock at BA today. (I don't think it's been mentioned yet).

    1. Rodon
    2. Jackson
    3. Aiken
    4. Freeland - mentions that the Cubs are looking for a college starter
    5. Gordon - Kolek/Gordon mentioned
    6. Nola
    7. Kolek - specifically mentions the high number of hard throwing HS draftees needing TJ as one reason teams might avoid him.

    I like Gordon a fair amount but I would prefer Jackson or Kolek if they are available.
    Very interesting mock to say the least. Would love Kolek to fall to the Twins at #5.

  7. #867
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeremy Nygaard View Post
    Right. That clouds up BPA even more. Some might go with ceiling, others might consider floor. Nola certainly has the highest floor of the guys you mentioned. Touki probably has the highest ceiling.

    Stewart was the BPA last year in that his ceiling was the highest and his present tools - though far from his ceiling - were too much to ignore.

    There's no slam dunk once Rodon and Aiken go off the board, even Kolek has some questions. Gordon might be the best bet? But all subject to an argument.
    I don't doubt that Nola has the highest floor. Consensus seems to be best case #3 starter, most likely #4 starter. But you have to question the end game to that strategy, because the draft is the best and close to the only avenue the Twins are every going to be able to acquire high ceiling talent, espeically since the international free agent market has exploded. So if you draft five Nola's and you have a rotation of #3/#4 starters, guess what, you are not a playoff team.

    Even the Twins can afford #3/4 starters on the free agent market. But if you look at some of the talent from the list I put out there of guys drafted 4-7, Braun, Kershaw, Prince, Greinke, Tulo, Posey, etc. Those were not high floor low ceiling picks and we have literally no shot at guys like that in free agency.
    Last edited by tobi0040; 05-16-2014 at 12:22 PM.

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    Nola is probably the guy I'd be most disappointed in, so you don't have to argue with me about it. I was simply saying that he's probably the Best Player Right Now that will be on the board, so while I support the BPA approach, it's not black and white.

  9. #869
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeremy Nygaard View Post
    Nola is probably the guy I'd be most disappointed in, so you don't have to argue with me about it. I was simply saying that he's probably the Best Player Right Now that will be on the board, so while I support the BPA approach, it's not black and white.
    Sounds good, what is your sense about Kolek? I would think we have to take Kolek, Rodon, or Aiken if available right, i.e. Manuels mock.

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    Also, Michael Wacha and Sonny Gray were considered a high-floor, low-ceiling guys when they were drafted and both fell because of it. I'd have to look back through old notes, but I don't think either were considered top-of-the-rotation arms. Instead, they were probably in the category that we're putting Nola in today.

  11. #871
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    When there is no clear BPA, I prefer a position player due to pitcher injury risk. It's a tough situation because high-ceiling arms are difficult to acquire, and the injury risk only increases the need for depth... and the top of the first round is an obvious place to add that kind of talent.

    It is possible the Twins think Nola is better than the consensus view, though pretty much everyone does rank him fairly high.

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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    Sounds good, what is your sense about Kolek? I would think we have to take Kolek, Rodon, or Aiken if available right, i.e. Manuels mock.
    Personally, I've had the throws-so-hard-his-UCL-will-snap worry about him for awhile, but didn't worry too much because I figured he'd be gone.

    Two thoughts from people who have seen him on multiple occasions: 1) It's impossible to predict injuries, the pitching motion is bad for you whether you throw 59 or 99 and 2) Kolek has a good start (velo), but questions remain about his breaking ball and mix (and put Kolek as lesser prospect coming out of high school than Stewart).

  13. #873
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeremy Nygaard View Post
    Also, Michael Wacha and Sonny Gray were considered a high-floor, low-ceiling guys when they were drafted and both fell because of it. I'd have to look back through old notes, but I don't think either were considered top-of-the-rotation arms. Instead, they were probably in the category that we're putting Nola in today.
    Wimmers and Gibson would also fall into that catagory.

    Drafting high floor/low ceiling is not new territory for the Twins, which is what scares me. Just as the ceiling is unpredictable, so is the floor. I think the draft guru's overestimate how low a floor really can be for guys who don't project to maintain an above league average K%.

    Of course if Wimmers and Gibson had become Gray and Wacha I'd probably be a hypocrite with all the backtracking I would doing.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    Wimmers and Gibson would also fall into that catagory.

    Drafting high floor/low ceiling is not new territory for the Twins, which is what scares me. Just as the ceiling is unpredictable, so is the floor. I think the draft guru's overestimate how low a floor really can be for guys who don't project to maintain an above league average K%.

    Of course if Wimmers and Gibson had become Gray and Wacha I'd probably be a hypocrite with all the backtracking I would doing.
    You are making a great argument for how Tommy John isn't just a bump in the road that everyone comes back from.

  15. #875
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeremy Nygaard View Post
    You are making a great argument for how Tommy John isn't just a bump in the road that everyone comes back from.
    Very true, neither pitcher has had the same luster they had pre-injury. However in fairness, Wimmers was looking disappointing well before he got hurt and Gibson never had the swing and miss ability we were hoping for before or after surgery.

  16. #876
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeremy Nygaard View Post
    You are making a great argument for how Tommy John isn't just a bump in the road that everyone comes back from.
    I have tried to make this case before, but Stras goes 1-2 behind Trout in a re-draft. Jose Fernandez doesn't get picked over 6 times even while on the operating table. I know I have a contrarian view on this, but I would take Hoffman right now or Kolek if I knew he needed TJ soon over a #4 starter.

    These guys can lose 1-2 mph and a little command and not be a #4 starter.
    Last edited by tobi0040; 05-16-2014 at 01:13 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    I have tried to make this case before, but Stras goes 1-2 behind Trout in a re-draft. Jose Fernandez doesn't get picked over 6 times even while on the operating table. I know I have a contrarian view on this, but I would take Hoffman right now or Kolek if I knew he needed TJ soon over a #4 starter.
    It works for some. It doesn't for others. I think the ELITE arms probably have more of a chance for recovery, because even at 80% of their old self, they're still in the 90%ile of all pitchers in MLB.

    Someone (Law maybe) said that Hoffman has to sign this year because he's probably just starting to throw again before next year's draft and has no time to re-build value. If Hoffman has a ceiling of Verlander, but only becomes 80% of him because of the UCL, he's still a stud. But, the whole TJ argument goes very deep and wide. In the end, it's just a giant mess.

  18. #878
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeremy Nygaard View Post
    Nola certainly has the highest floor of the guys you mentioned. Touki probably has the highest ceiling ...

    There's no slam dunk once Rodon and Aiken go off the board, even Kolek has some questions. Gordon might be the best bet? But all subject to an argument.
    I would say Freeland has a higher floor than Nola. He throws harder, his stuff is better, his control is comparable, BA thinks he has some projection left, and he is left handed. They share the same low arm slot, but no one has complained about Freeland's late release.

    Nola has an advantage in longer track record and tougher competition, but Freeland broke out last year in the Cape Code League and is building on that all this year. [FWIW the dearly departed Hoffman also broke out in last year's Cape but did not consistently show that this year.]

    Kolek is a thrower whose secondary stuff is far away. His control has been likened to Touki's (by someone) and Touki has shown much better secondary stuff. Touki has a very quick arm, is extremely athletic, and has lots of projection in terms of velocity as well as command and control. I agree Touki might have the highest ceiling.

    Most of us would agree on 8 of the top 10 and that's before we figure signability/slot. But that means 6 guys we like will be there at 5. Having watched last year's 1-1 Appel be reassigned to Extended Spring Training, I am quite content where we are.

    Personnally I would be disappointed with Nola (because of Freeland) and disgusted with Beede (because velocity and stuff is necessary but not sufficient). But I'm going to root for whoever the Twins draft. And follow my six with a great deal of interest.

  19. #879
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    I have tried to make this case before, but Stras goes 1-2 behind Trout in a re-draft. Jose Fernandez doesn't get picked over 6 times even while on the operating table. I know I have a contrarian view on this, but I would take Hoffman right now or Kolek if I knew he needed TJ soon over a #4 starter.

    These guys can lose 1-2 mph and a little command and not be a #4 starter.
    I agree I'd take them both over Nola. I'd probably still like Kolek as a top pick even with TJ as I view him as in a tier alone with Aiken and Rodon. I might drop Hoffman with Holmes, Toussaint and Newcomb though. Although for me, I'd be OK considering them at #5.

    One thought on the TJ guys though. If one ISN'T worried about the recovery but instead is worried about development, make the pick. It was only two years ago that top picks often didn't get any MiLB time because they'd haggle over contracts all summer. Even last year, the Twins "high floor/low ceiling" #2 pick Ryan Eades threw all of 15 innings.

  20. #880
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    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    Wimmers and Gibson would also fall into that catagory.

    Drafting high floor/low ceiling is not new territory for the Twins, which is what scares me. Just as the ceiling is unpredictable, so is the floor. I think the draft guru's overestimate how low a floor really can be for guys who don't project to maintain an above league average K%.

    Of course if Wimmers and Gibson had become Gray and Wacha I'd probably be a hypocrite with all the backtracking I would doing.
    Interesting article on Wacha and why he fell. Some had him labeled a closer, others a mid rotation guy. After the draft his fastball gained a little velocity and his curve improved, they give credit to the Cardinals.

    http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/po...-michael-wacha

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