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Thread: 2014 MLB Draft Thread

  1. #901
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Monkeypaws's Avatar
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    I'll buck the trend and say I'd be fine with Nola - sometimes the numbers don't lie, and this kid has been better statistically than any college pitcher the Twins have drafted in recent memory.

  2. #902
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    As the college season has progressed, I have wondered why Nola hasn't gotten more positive reviews. Is it that he can't throw hard enough.

    To me, he looks like a very good pick at #5.

  3. #903
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    Quote Originally Posted by AM. View Post
    As the college season has progressed, I have wondered why Nola hasn't gotten more positive reviews. Is it that he can't throw hard enough.

    To me, he looks like a very good pick at #5.
    It has to do with projection. Kevin Slowey had similar stats and destroyed the minors. many pitchers destroy the minors but lack the pitches to be good in the majors. Obviously Nola has better stuff than Slowey (a 2nd rd pick) and played against higher college competition but at the end of the day the most important thing for a draftee is projects in the majors.

  4. #904
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    minorleagueball has their mock draft up - http://www.minorleagueball.com/2014/...raft-version-2

    This one looks pretty accurate to me - talent going more or less in order with Twins taking Gordon.

  5. #905
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    minorleagueball has their mock draft up - http://www.minorleagueball.com/2014/...raft-version-2

    This one looks pretty accurate to me - talent going more or less in order with Twins taking Gordon.
    And the write up says they believe it's Gordon or (please, please, please no) Nola. Nola than falls five spot further with two different pitchers going before him. This stinks of the Wimmers fiasco. Everyone knew the Twins would take the guy because he was "safe" and "MLB ready." Other teams weren't interested because the guy had zero upside but the Twins were less concerned with upside than they were with the floor.

    That was the old Twins though, I believe they have changed. I know the team has watched Nola a ton, but I don't think they'll blow their pick at #5 on a guy who won't be able to miss bats at the MLB level. They have to be frustrated by that too by now.

  6. #906
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    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    And the write up says they believe it's Gordon or (please, please, please no) Nola. Nola than falls five spot further with two different pitchers going before him. This stinks of the Wimmers fiasco. Everyone knew the Twins would take the guy because he was "safe" and "MLB ready." Other teams weren't interested because the guy had zero upside but the Twins were less concerned with upside than they were with the floor.

    That was the old Twins though, I believe they have changed. I know the team has watched Nola a ton, but I don't think they'll blow their pick at #5 on a guy who won't be able to miss bats at the MLB level. They have to be frustrated by that too by now.
    First, there is a huge difference between the 28th pick and the 5th pick - Wimmers wasn't a reach there. Secondly, the Wimmers pick was under Deron Johnson who is still the draft guru. Third, the "old Twins" drafted pitchers a lot more successfully than Johnson has - in six drafts, Gibson is the only pitcher he has taken to make the majors.

  7. #907
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    First, there is a huge difference between the 28th pick and the 5th pick - Wimmers wasn't a reach there. Secondly, the Wimmers pick was under Deron Johnson who is still the draft guru. Third, the "old Twins" drafted pitchers a lot more successfully than Johnson has - in six drafts, Gibson is the only pitcher he has taken to make the majors.
    Wimmers was actually the 21st pick. I think we need to define success here. If success is reaching the majors, then Nola would be the best pick. My two cents is that a guy whose ceiling is a #3 or #4 starter but could be up next year is not a good pick. Maybe in round 2 or 3, but I think would rather have a guy that was supposed to go in the 1st round, then struggled with command, a higher upside guy even if it is less likely he gets here.

    We can sign guys like Keven C in free agency, we don't need to draft them in the first round.

    If you look at those two strategies, one where you take safe guys with no upside and the other where you swing for the fences. The swinging for the fences strategy is the only one that could propel this team into the playoffs eventually. I don't see a team with back of the rotation guys beating out Detroit anytime soon.
    Last edited by tobi0040; 05-19-2014 at 09:10 AM.

  8. #908
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    Wimmers was actually the 21st pick. I think we need to define success here. If success is reaching the majors, then Nola would be the best pick. My two cents is that a guy whose ceiling is a #3 or #4 starter but could be up next year is not a good pick. Maybe in round 2 or 3, but I think would rather have a guy that was supposed to go in the 1st round, then struggled with command, a higher upside guy even if it is less likely he gets here.

    We can sign guys like Keven C in free agency, we don't need to draft them in the first round.

    If you look at those two strategies, one where you take safe guys with no upside and the other where you swing for the fences. The swinging for the fences strategy is the only one that could propel this team into the playoffs eventually. I don't see a team with back of the rotation guys beating out Detroit anytime soon.
    It's really not as simple as you make is seem - there's a balance between floor/ceiling, projectability, injury risk etc. The harsh reality is that the Twins have taken a high risk position on drafting pitchers since 2008 and it hasn't done well for them. Gibson and Logan Darnell are the only major leaguers and Stewart is the only bigtime prospect (I loved the pick). It's harder to draft top talent when picking in the 20s and later and maybe the old Twins had a better idea in grabbing "safe" picks like Slowey, Baker, Duensing, Swarzak, Crain, Blackburn etc in later rounds and taking the Garza that falls in your lap.

    I think you also overestimate how many true #1s may be in a draft. The three big arms at the top won't be there at #5 and not all of them even project as true #1s.

    http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/...3-4-5-starters

    According to mlbpipeline, Nola has two plus pitches to go with plus control (Freeland, too). Both would have #2 ceilings if they reach it. Mlbpipeline, which is Mayo and Callis, rank Nola #5 in this draft, ahead of Gordon. So Nola isn't another Wimmers. I admit that control is bigger for me than others. A guy like Beede, for instance, terrifies me.

  9. #909
    If the Twins draft Nola it is because they firmly believe he can be a top of the rotation 1 or 2 starter. They will not draft Nola with the 5th pick if they feel he is a lock to reach the bigs but nothing better than a 3 in a rotation. With that said I trust our professional scouts (who have done a pretty good job with high picks the past couple drafts) over an internet full of mock drafters who rely on the same handful of data points. So if we draft Nola I am sure it would be for good reason.

  10. #910
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    Christopher Crawford released a new mock draft last night. Like a lot of the recent mocks that have popped up he has the Twins taking Gordon. He gave Gordon a 50% chance to be taken by the Twins, Jackson a 35% chance, and Nola a 15% chance. Here is a link to the mock:

    http://mlbdraftinsider.com/2014/05/t...tages-edition/

    Crawford isn't done. Him and Law released an ESPN insider article today on the best tools in the class. Here are a few players who made the list that have been linked to the Twins:

    Nola had the best college change up with Weaver being considered.
    Potential second round pick Mac Marshall was considered for the best HS change up.
    Jackson had the best hit tool with Gordon being considered.
    Jackson was the runner up for best power after Gatewood for a HS hitter.
    Gordon was considered for best HS throwing arm.

  11. #911
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    Callis released an article on the draft about how talented the group of HS pitchers are. One club executive suggested Aiken/Kolek is a better top two HS pair of arms than Bradley/Bundy. Also, one scouting director had an interesting take on the drafts HS pitching depth:
    "In the middle of the first round, there will be a ton of these high school pitchers, and even more in the second or third round," a scouting director said. "There's a ton of them.
    "One of the things I have to navigate through is I don't think my team will tell me I can't take a high school pitcher in the first round, though I think they prefer it's college. I'm not sure they're going to want me taking a high school pitcher again in the second round if I do in the first, even if that's the best guy on our board. It will be interesting."

    Full article here:
    http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/...&vkey=news_mlb

    Mayo also released an article today on Touki Toussaint. Here is a link to that one:
    http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/...&vkey=news_mlb

  12. #912
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmb0252 View Post
    Christopher Crawford released a new mock draft last night. Like a lot of the recent mocks that have popped up he has the Twins taking Gordon. He gave Gordon a 50% chance to be taken by the Twins, Jackson a 35% chance, and Nola a 15% chance. Here is a link to the mock:

    http://mlbdraftinsider.com/2014/05/t...tages-edition/
    Interesting what he has for Miami - Kolek, Rodon, or Jackson.

    The Marlins pick at 2, 36, 39, and 43. They've been linked to bats all spring.

    I think Houston has to take Kolek no. 1 for the home town factor.

    This would put Miami in a position of blowing no. 1 pick money to get Rodon. That wouldn't bankrupt them but could damper their options at 36, 39, and 43.

    So if Houston takes Kolek, I think the Fish might let the White Sox take Rodon and go underslot for a college bat like Zimmer or Pentecost. This of course would mean that one of Jackson or Aiken falls to the Twins.

    That's how I hope it goes anyway.

  13. #913
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    It's really not as simple as you make is seem - there's a balance between floor/ceiling, projectability, injury risk etc. The harsh reality is that the Twins have taken a high risk position on drafting pitchers since 2008 and it hasn't done well for them. Gibson and Logan Darnell are the only major leaguers and Stewart is the only bigtime prospect (I loved the pick). It's harder to draft top talent when picking in the 20s and later and maybe the old Twins had a better idea in grabbing "safe" picks like Slowey, Baker, Duensing, Swarzak, Crain, Blackburn etc in later rounds and taking the Garza that falls in your lap.
    Those are nice pitchers, but aside from Garza for perhaps a year or two, none of them are going to anchor a World Series winning rotation. None. And if they aren't going to be able to afford to buy an anchor, this is how they have to do it.

    I have no complaints with Boer, Boyd or Summers. Keep them coming, maybe we'll hit on one at somepoint. There is no chance a 6.0 K/9, 91 MPH pitch-to-contact guy is leading this team to the promised land.

    Wimmers was not a good choice at 21. He was safe, and people projected him for the first round only because he was safe. Every other team seemed to be looking for upside as evidenced by 20 other teams passing on "the most MLB ready pitcher in the draft."

    Had the Twins not be uber-cautious and instead went for high-upside HS talent, they could have had their choice of Jesse Biddle, Zach Lee, Aaron Sanchez, Noah Syndergaard and Tijuan Walker. Cam Bedrosian and Luck Jackson round out the seven HS pitchers taken next after Wimmers and every one of them look promising. This "Safe" and "MLB ready" stuff is crap and unpredictable.

    You can't play the hindsight game with your draft picks, but you can play the hingsight game with your draft pick philosophy. This is a sport, taking risks is a necessity to winning, picking "Safe" and "MLB ready" over upside is loser mentality. I think it's over. It better be over.

  14. #914
    Twins Moderator MVP ashburyjohn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    as evidenced by 20 other teams passing
    Same argument would of course apply to any other player under any other metric.

  15. #915
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    Jon Heyman @JonHeymanCBS
    alex jackson, big-time power prospect from SD area, moving up draft boards. may join rodon & aiken (sd too) in top 3

    And

    Jon Heyman @JonHeymanCBS
    nicholas gordon, top hs ss (bro of dee, son of tom), also moving up. has top-5 (or even top 4) potential


    Nothing necessarily new here, just adding another voice to the narrative.

    Last edited by InfraRen; 05-19-2014 at 03:00 PM.
    Till I Collapse

  16. #916
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    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    Those are nice pitchers, but aside from Garza for perhaps a year or two, none of them are going to anchor a World Series winning rotation. None. And if they aren't going to be able to afford to buy an anchor, this is how they have to do it.

    I have no complaints with Boer, Boyd or Summers. Keep them coming, maybe we'll hit on one at somepoint. There is no chance a 6.0 K/9, 91 MPH pitch-to-contact guy is leading this team to the promised land.

    Wimmers was not a good choice at 21. He was safe, and people projected him for the first round only because he was safe. Every other team seemed to be looking for upside as evidenced by 20 other teams passing on "the most MLB ready pitcher in the draft."

    Had the Twins not be uber-cautious and instead went for high-upside HS talent, they could have had their choice of Jesse Biddle, Zach Lee, Aaron Sanchez, Noah Syndergaard and Tijuan Walker. Cam Bedrosian and Luck Jackson round out the seven HS pitchers taken next after Wimmers and every one of them look promising. This "Safe" and "MLB ready" stuff is crap and unpredictable.

    You can't play the hindsight game with your draft picks, but you can play the hingsight game with your draft pick philosophy. This is a sport, taking risks is a necessity to winning, picking "Safe" and "MLB ready" over upside is loser mentality. I think it's over. It better be over.
    We've had six drafts and Johnson's high upside strategy has been less productive than Radcliff's "safe" one, which helped the Twins extend their 10 year run atop the AL Central. The Twins would have better off if they had grabbed guys like Wade Miley and Lance Lynn over Hunt/Gutierrez under Johnson. He's been too enamored with high 90s fastballs and less concerned with health, ability to start or control than he should be. And that's led to some mediocre results.

    World series rotations have all sorts of arms and are littered with pitchers with 2.0-3.0 WAR seasons, which is what Baker, Slowey, et al managed to provide 8x. Roy Halladay struck out 6.6 k/9 in his AL career. Radke was a much better pitcher than Josh Beckett. Lohse was an important arm for the 2011 Cards. Buerhle anchored a WS staff and has two no hitters. Doug Fister strikes out 6.3 k/9 and has had a nice little career, etc. The idea that the Twins need a specific type of pitcher (in your case, flame throwers) isn't accurate. They need better pitchers. They need starters that will keep them in games, throw 200 innings. If they do it like vintage Johan Santana, great. If it's 2008 Blackburn, that works too. (Please note I am not advocating they use the #5 pick on 36th round talent)

    In this draft, at #5, there is no Santana. Nola and Freeland might be #2 starters. That's not a bad thing to go after even if they aren't going to be more than 7 k/9 guys in the majors.

  17. #917
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    Quote Originally Posted by InfraRen View Post
    Jon Heyman @JonHeymanCBS
    alex jackson, big-time power prospect from SD area, moving up draft boards. may join rodon & aiken (sd too) in top 3

    And

    Jon Heyman @JonHeymanCBS
    nicholas gordon, top hs ss (bro of dee, son of tom), also moving up. has top-5 (or even top 4) potential


    Nothing necessarily new here, just adding another voice to the narrative.

    It's interesting but I can't see Kolek falling past the Cubs unless there is more concern over his secondary pitches than we know about.

  18. #918
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    Quote Originally Posted by ashburyjohn View Post
    Same argument would of course apply to any other player under any other metric.
    No doubt, but only one was "the most MLB ready pitcher in the draft," why would 20 other teams pass on that. Unless "the most MLB ready pitcher in the draft" is either a poor indicator of talent or not nearly as important as projection to the other 19 teams.

  19. #919
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    Seems like there are 6 players (Rodon, Nola, Aiken, Kolek, Gordon, Jackson) who have been heavily linked to the top 5 picks. Outside of Nola I would be happy with any of the other 5.

  20. #920
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    We've had six drafts and Johnson's high upside strategy has been less productive than Radcliff's "safe" one, which helped the Twins extend their 10 year run atop the AL Central. The Twins would have better off if they had grabbed guys like Wade Miley and Lance Lynn over Hunt/Gutierrez under Johnson. He's been too enamored with high 90s fastballs and less concerned with health, ability to start or control than he should be. And that's led to some mediocre results.

    World series rotations have all sorts of arms and are littered with pitchers with 2.0-3.0 WAR seasons, which is what Baker, Slowey, et al managed to provide 8x. Roy Halladay struck out 6.6 k/9 in his AL career. Radke was a much better pitcher than Josh Beckett. Lohse was an important arm for the 2011 Cards. Buerhle anchored a WS staff and has two no hitters. Doug Fister strikes out 6.3 k/9 and has had a nice little career, etc. The idea that the Twins need a specific type of pitcher (in your case, flame throwers) isn't accurate. They need better pitchers. They need starters that will keep them in games, throw 200 innings. If they do it like vintage Johan Santana, great. If it's 2008 Blackburn, that works too. (Please note I am not advocating they use the #5 pick on 36th round talent)

    In this draft, at #5, there is no Santana. Nola and Freeland might be #2 starters. That's not a bad thing to go after even if they aren't going to be more than 7 k/9 guys in the majors.
    The Twins might win more games, but they won't win more games in the post season picking noodle armed control pitchers. Johnson is doing it correctly. Maybe they're not as good at identifying power arms that can translate to the MLB level (no mabye about it really) but that doesn't mean it's any less of an mandate for a champion.

    And as much as I like Brad Radke, he was nowhere near the talent that Josh Beckett was when he was anchoring World Series rotations. I don't care about Doug Fister's nice little career, I wouldn't draft him at #5, nor would I Wade Miley, Brad Radke, Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey or 2008 Nick Blackburn. Even the Twins can afford to get those guys on the free agent market. Sure they can be part of a World Series rotation under the right circumstances, but under what circumstance could they or should they start game 1? Or game 2?

    This high floor/low ceiling stuff is BS. Guys with a low ceiling will ALSO have a low floor. If you're not able to miss bats, you have a much smaller margin for error. You can't rely on you'r defense for 80% of your outs, it's uneconomical. Why would you want to anyway?

    The Twins don't need to find guys who can throw a good 200 innings. They need to find good pitchers. Pitching 200 innings is a byproduct of good pitching. Good pitching isn't a byproduct of pitching 200 innings. Most of the guys who are able to manage strong strikeout numbers ARE among the league leaders in innings.

    It is accurate the Twins need guys who can miss bats. If they have trouble finding the ones who can also hit the strikezone, that's on their scouting or player development. 29 other teams don't have a problem in this area.
    Last edited by nicksaviking; 05-20-2014 at 07:57 AM.

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