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Thread: 2014 MLB Draft Thread

  1. #1001
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    If Kolek is available and we pass on him everyone should be fired.

  2. #1002
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    Quote Originally Posted by twinsfanstreif View Post
    Does Nola remind anyone of Radke? Control guy, several slightly above average pitches, even their wind up looks similar. Although not spectacular I would take another Radke at #5 to pair with Meyer!
    I can't say whether Nola is better than, worse than, or equal to Radke but I think we need to shoot higher than Radke with pick number five.

  3. #1003
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    Does Kolek scare anyone else? I like big-time velocity as much as the next guy, but if his command and secondary pitches don't develop he is just a bullpen arm at best.

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  5. #1004
    Quote Originally Posted by notoriousgod71 View Post
    I can't say whether Nola is better than, worse than, or equal to Radke but I think we need to shoot higher than Radke with pick number five.
    Why? Radke wasn't spectacular but he was a very solid major leaguer for a decade, I'll take that over a bust, they can't all be Verlander/Price, I'll take a solid #2 that could get here quick any day. Cain/Wainwright/Carpenter are all examples of guys who aren't flashy but could get the job done(in their prime). Nola could be that guy. I don't want him over Kolek but at #5 with the big 3 gone, I prefer Nola over Many of the others. there's not really a #1 pitcher there after those guys, mostly lots of #2s and Nola is the best of them

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  7. #1005
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    Quote Originally Posted by notoriousgod71 View Post
    If Kolek is available and we pass on him everyone should be fired.
    If they take kolek and he ends up having tommy john and being a bullpen arm, the the tins brass gets fired. Go be a yankee fan with comments like that. Kolek hasnt done sh** yet. We can speculate on who to take and who we want...but won't know for 10 years if it was a good pick or not. Even trevor plouffe is starting to look like a decent pick ten uears in the making. I bet we look back and say...if,only we would have taken Nola

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  9. #1006
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    Quote Originally Posted by notoriousgod71 View Post
    I can't say whether Nola is better than, worse than, or equal to Radke but I think we need to shoot higher than Radke with pick number five.
    Think Radke with 3-5 mph more velocity and greater GB%. IIRC, Radke's changeup was plus and Nola's is not there yet.

    I've changed my mind. I would not be disappointed with the Twins taking Nola.

  10. #1007
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    Quote Originally Posted by notoriousgod71 View Post
    If Kolek is available and we pass on him everyone should be fired.
    Fear not about not selecting Kolek--he will be gone by the Twins turn! Whil he Twins shudder at a power pitcher (especially since the 100-pitch-count philosophy would be jeopardized) other teams still prize power pitchers.

  11. #1008
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    Quote Originally Posted by markos View Post
    Does Kolek scare anyone else? I like big-time velocity as much as the next guy, but if his command and secondary pitches don't develop he is just a bullpen arm at best.
    Agree. I would prefer a 95 mph+ fastball and a swing and miss CB that can be thrown for strikes, at minimum. And I'm not sure Kolek's breaking pitch measures up, although there's no way to be sure.

  12. #1009
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    Quote Originally Posted by Twins Twerp View Post
    If they take kolek and he ends up having tommy john and being a bullpen arm, the the tins brass gets fired. Go be a yankee fan with comments like that. Kolek hasnt done sh** yet. We can speculate on who to take and who we want...but won't know for 10 years if it was a good pick or not. Even trevor plouffe is starting to look like a decent pick ten uears in the making. I bet we look back and say...if,only we would have taken Nola
    Here is what I posted on the Nola thread:

    "I'm liking Nola more and more as the draft comes up. Even if he doesn't wind up as a big strikeout guy, his ability to limit walks seems like an 80-grade tool. (A tool that is also hard to develop.) For some reason, I am envisioning him coming out of this draft as the best pitcher by far, with teams kicking themselves for passing on him.
    ...
    "The biggest reason not to draft him is that this might be the last chance the Twins have for a while to have this high of a high draft pick, and therefore it might be the last really good chance to get the SS of the future in a guy like Gordon."

    Right now I am hoping for Nola or Gordon. Reasons to be scared of drafting a HS pitcher two years running. Rodon also seems to have some red flags.

  13. #1010
    The more I watch tape and think about it I begin to really like the idea of Nola or Freeland. Both are control guys with a good mix of pitches and #2 type stuff. Each has projection left with Freeland having a little more than Nola but Nola is better now. Freeland is a lefty so there is an advantage there. These guys seem safer than the others but have a more complete arsenal and better control. I'm a bigger fan of this rather than Gordon, I'm just not sold on him.
    Last edited by twinsfanstreif; 05-24-2014 at 02:51 PM.

  14. #1011
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    Quote Originally Posted by twinsfanstreif View Post
    The more I watch tape and think about it I begin to really like the idea of Nola or Freeland. Both are control guys with a good mix of pitches and #2 type stuff. Each has projection left with Freeland having a little more than Nola but Nola is better now. Freeland is a lefty so there is an advantage there. These guys seem safer than the others but have a more complete arsenal and better control. I'm a bigger fan of this rather than Gordon, I'm just not sold on him.
    Nola really has no projection left. Freeland has some but I doubt either becomes #2 starters. Law saw Nola yesterday and here is what he said:

    "I don't see No. 1 or No. 2 starter upside with Nola -- what you see here is what you'll get. But I also think you could sign him, run him right out to Double-A and get him on your major league roster by next April."

    Top 5 picks should have higher ceilings. No matter how advanced a pitcher is you can't bank on them being safe. Just ask the Mariners how well that turned out after using the #2 overall pick on Hultzen in 2011.

  15. #1012
    Quote Originally Posted by cmb0252 View Post
    Nola really has no projection left. Freeland has some but I doubt either becomes #2 starters. Law saw Nola yesterday and here is what he said:

    "I don't see No. 1 or No. 2 starter upside with Nola -- what you see here is what you'll get. But I also think you could sign him, run him right out to Double-A and get him on your major league roster by next April."

    Top 5 picks should have higher ceilings. No matter how advanced a pitcher is you can't bank on them being safe. Just ask the Mariners how well that turned out after using the #2 overall pick on Hultzen in 2011.
    While I do like and trust Law's opinion there are plenty of scouts who say otherwise on Nola, he could see an improvement on velocity in the next few years with some conditioning and a few tweeks on his delivery. I do agree with the fact that if you throw him out there right away he won't really be much more than he currently is. Hultzen had significantly more questions than Nola does right now and he was projected as average across the board with no out pitch, a #3 ceiling, and inconsistent command. Where scouts liked Hultzen is he was a big, smart, projectable pitcher who could dominate if his FB improved (he was topping out at 94 in most reports I saw). His FB never improved and he's a #5 at best. Most scouting reports I saw on him said this exact thing so Seattle did drastically over draft him in a weak pitching class. The difference with Nola is all of his stuff is above average right now including a curve that might be the best in this class, he's a smaller guy with incredible control. If scouts liked his body more and his FB had a few ticks more (he sits 91-94 but has topped out at 96) he would be a sure fire top 3.

  16. #1013
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    I don't recall any projection of more velocity for Nola and would appreciate a link. I would be very careful of tweaking his delivery. There is some projection for his changeup and maybe his breaking ball (slider IIRC).

  17. #1014
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    Quote Originally Posted by twinsfanstreif View Post
    Why? Radke wasn't spectacular but he was a very solid major leaguer for a decade, I'll take that over a bust, they can't all be Verlander/Price, I'll take a solid #2 that could get here quick any day. Cain/Wainwright/Carpenter are all examples of guys who aren't flashy but could get the job done(in their prime). Nola could be that guy. I don't want him over Kolek but at #5 with the big 3 gone, I prefer Nola over Many of the others. there's not really a #1 pitcher there after those guys, mostly lots of #2s and Nola is the best of them
    Wainwright, Cain, and Carpenter are all better than Radke was. If he ends up being Radke, fine, but I think our goal should be higher than that.

  18. #1015
    Quote Originally Posted by Lonestar View Post
    I don't recall any projection of more velocity for Nola and would appreciate a link. I would be very careful of tweaking his delivery. There is some projection for his changeup and maybe his breaking ball (slider IIRC).
    here's a few:
    http://bigleaguefutures.net/1/2013/0...le-aaron-nola/

    http://www.thegoodphight.com/2014/1/...aaron-nola-rhp

  19. #1016
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    Except for guys with mechanical flaws, velocity peaks young, before most are in the Majors. And since Nola's strength is his command, mechanical changes might not be a great idea. With an MLB workload he's a low 90s guy.

  20. #1017
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    I found those, too, before I asked. They are not scouts, nor have they played them on TV.

  21. #1018
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    Quote Originally Posted by twinsfanstreif View Post
    Why? Radke wasn't spectacular but he was a very solid major leaguer for a decade, I'll take that over a bust, they can't all be Verlander/Price, I'll take a solid #2 that could get here quick any day. Cain/Wainwright/Carpenter are all examples of guys who aren't flashy but could get the job done(in their prime). Nola could be that guy. I don't want him over Kolek but at #5 with the big 3 gone, I prefer Nola over Many of the others. there's not really a #1 pitcher there after those guys, mostly lots of #2s and Nola is the best of them
    But a guy who projects to be Brad Radke can bust just as a guy who projects to be Johan Santana. Why wouldn't you pick the guy with higher upside? It's a crapshoot with all these guys. People are getting fooled into thinking, "control" and low velocity guys are more of a sure thing to make it. If they are more likely, we're probably talking about a likelihood of 40% instead of 35%. I'm not tossing away upside for a measly 5% increase in odds.

    Bottom line is, Nola is far from a lock from becoming Brad Radke. In fact the odds are against it. He is almost certainly a lock NOT to become an ace. The other available pitchers are also aren't likely to be as effective as Brad Radke, but at least they do have a shot at being an ace.

  22. #1019
    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    But a guy who projects to be Brad Radke can bust just as a guy who projects to be Johan Santana. Why wouldn't you pick the guy with higher upside? It's a crapshoot with all these guys. People are getting fooled into thinking, "control" and low velocity guys are more of a sure thing to make it. If they are more likely, we're probably talking about a likelihood of 40% instead of 35%. I'm not tossing away upside for a measly 5% increase in odds.

    Bottom line is, Nola is far from a lock from becoming Brad Radke. In fact the odds are against it. He is almost certainly a lock NOT to become an ace. The other available pitchers are also aren't likely to be as effective as Brad Radke, but at least they do have a shot at being an ace.
    Who are we referring to though? If Aiken, Kolek, and Roden are off the board who else projects as an ace? Maybe Beede but his control issues are risky, maybe Newcomb but he is super raw, maybe Hoffman but he needs TJ and that's always tricky. those are the only guys aside from the top 3 who COULD project as an ace and they are all very risky. Nola's not my favorite guy but there is no one who is projected to be there that blows me away unless one of the big 3 falls so Nola and Freeland become intriguing options. I like ceiling as much as the next guy but very few prospects a year have a high ceiling with low risk. It's the difference of a 200/1 odds to win $10,000 or 10/1 odds to win $1000. It's beginning to look just like last years #4 pick in a 3 man race. This year we have #5 pick this year in a 3, maybe 4 man race.

  23. #1020
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    For those who want to draft a Brad Radke I say: "Patience, and draft him in the later rounds just where the real Brad Radke was drafted."

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