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Thread: 2014 MLB Draft Thread

  1. #1101
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dman View Post
    OK so if Gordon and Jackson are gone what pitcher would likely fall to us? Kolek or Rodon or Aiken?
    There has been some buzz that teams are talking themselves out of Kolek. My guess is that he is the one that would be available.

  2. #1102
    Quote Originally Posted by Dman View Post
    OK so if Gordon and Jackson are gone what pitcher would likely fall to us? Kolek or Rodon or Aiken?
    I would have to assume Kolek unless teams think Rodon will be too expensive, in that case we probably pass on Rodon too because we hate dealing with expensive Boras guys. Rodon could easily pull an Appel if he isn't taken top 3.

  3. #1103
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    Quote Originally Posted by markos View Post
    There has been some buzz that teams are talking themselves out of Kolek. My guess is that he is the one that would be available.
    Yeah that was my thinking as well. He throws hard but will his arm hold up and can he develop quality secondary pitches? There's a lot of questions there. The upside is also high though as not many pitchers can throw that hard. It would be a gamble to take him for sure.

  4. #1104
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    Quote Originally Posted by twinsfanstreif View Post
    I would have to assume Kolek unless teams think Rodon will be too expensive, in that case we probably pass on Rodon too because we hate dealing with expensive Boras guys. Rodon could easily pull an Appel if he isn't taken top 3.
    I hadn't thought about that but you might be right. Could be a dangerous pick if he won't sign.

  5. #1105
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    I'd love to see Gordon or Nola gone before 5, so the Twins can choose between Jackson or Kolek. I'd be thrilled with either one.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dman View Post
    I hadn't thought about that but you might be right. Could be a dangerous pick if he won't sign.
    It should not be as big of a risk if he goes #5. Appel slipped to #8 and his parents had a lot of money.

  8. #1107
    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    It should not be as big of a risk if he goes #5. Appel slipped to #8 and his parents had a lot of money.
    The difference between #5 and #8 is $660,000, the difference between #3 and #5 is almost $2 million and $2 million more for #1 overall, if he believes he can go back to college and dominate, that could be the difference of $4 million and Boras would potentially advise that. I don't know Rodon's family situation or anything but it's not impossible that he could balk at #5

  9. #1108
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    Quote Originally Posted by twinsfanstreif View Post
    The difference between #5 and #8 is $660,000, the difference between #3 and #5 is almost $2 million and $2 million more for #1 overall, if he believes he can go back to college and dominate, that could be the difference of $4 million and Boras would potentially advise that. I don't know Rodon's family situation or anything but it's not impossible that he could balk at #5
    However, Appel didn't sign for slot. He signed for $1.45M less than slot ($6.35M versus $7.8M slot).

    The Pirates offered Appel above slot money at #8, which was $3.8M ($900K or so above slot value) and my guess is anyone at #4 or #5 would offer slot or as much over slot as they could without getting a penalty. So the difference between $6.35M and #4 slot plus extra ($4.6M plus) or #5 slot plus extra ($3.85 plus) is not that much money.

  10. #1109
    Quote Originally Posted by twinsfanstreif View Post
    Rodon could easily pull an Appel if he isn't taken top 3.
    It will be interesting to see if Boras plays that game again. He already got lucky once with Appel who turned down $3.8 million from the Pirates and ended up with $6.35 million from the Astros. A very good result but the it remains an open question whether the risk was appropriate.

    Given what the draft experts expect to happen with Hoffman, the likely signing bonus floor for Appel was probably in the $1.5 to $1.8 million dollar range even if had he blown out his elbow after returning to Stanford (can the same be said if a labrum is involved - I have doubts). So, the risk in turning down $3.8 million from the Pirates was roughly $2 to $2.3 million. Although he ultimately increased his bonus by $2.55 million, his maximum possible return on his gambit was $3.99 million (the full slot bonus number of the Astros' 2013 No. 1 pick--admittedly ignoring the idea that a team can pay over slot). So he risked losing as much as $2.3 million for a chance at earning as much as $4 million more than offered.

    I don't know anything about Appel's family but, unless his parents are legitimately wealthy, it did not seem (to me) appropriate for Boras to advise a young pitcher to take that type of risk (given those pesky UCLs and labrums they rely on). Everyone has their own risk tolerance but I think we all can agree that the $2 million dollars between $1.8 and $3.8 million dollars has a MUCH bigger impact on a person's lifestyle and financial security than the $2.5 million between $3.8 and $6.3 million. On a bigger scale, its the difference between Scherzer turning down the big offer and Trout accepting it. Scherzer has already made $30 million (forever money for the reasonably sane) while Trout had barely made $1 million. Happily, Appel won't spend his lifetime ruminating about his choice because it worked out and he stayed healthy AND productive.

    Bringing the conversation back to Rodon, his analysis must also include the fact that the NC State coaching staff has demonstrated that it will use Rodon until he is used up if they perceive the need for a couple more ACC victories. If he elects not to sign, I believe he would be better off sitting out the year or playing independent baseball rather than putting his future back in their hands.

    All that said, sign a deal Rodon. Let Boras show everyone he knows best with guys like Drew and Morales who have already pocketed $10 million plus.
    Last edited by Dance with Disco Dan; 05-29-2014 at 02:58 PM.

  11. #1110
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    [QUOTE=I don't know anything about Appel's family but, unless his parents are legitimately wealthy, it did not seem (to me) appropriate for Boras to advise a young pitcher to take that type of risk(given those UCL's and labrums they rely on)..[/QUOTE]


    I agree 100%. You have to question whether the agent has the best interest of the client in this case. Even in the case of Max Scherzer. It may make sense for Boras to bring every client to free agency, or players like Appel back to college. He is going to win a majority of those and spread accross his 100's of clients, he wins more than he loses. But if you are Max Scherzer, Mark Appel, or Rodon, you are not benefitting from the players that win. Appel was ultimately a test for Boras and it now gives him another card to play in the future.

    I am sure if Rodon falls Boras wiill play the college card, but if we are talking about a difference of $1-$1.5M, most players will sign. If he doesn't, we get the 6th pick next year.

  12. #1111
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    Kiley McDaniel released his new board today. Kolek falls and Nola rises but what is his new top 5? Check it out:

    http://sbb.scout.com/story/1404313

  13. #1112
    Any of Rodon, Aiken, Kolek, Gordon, Jackson, or Nola would be quality picks in reality. All have very reasonable chance to be very good prospects and eventually contribute to a major league team. Honestly, however, I am warming up to Nola. His fastball and changeup combo remind me of Michael Wacha, only Nola has better control. At this point in their college careers, Nola is the better of the two with better stuff. But any prospect can either "find it" or "lose it" during their path to the major leagues. I'm less worried about who the Twins take 5th overall than who they miss in the draft as a whole. I would like see a plethora of quality prospects who have the ability and aptitude to become good contributors to the Twins in the future.

  14. #1113
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    Quote Originally Posted by the_youngster View Post
    Any of Rodon, Aiken, Kolek, Gordon, Jackson, or Nola would be quality picks in reality. All have very reasonable chance to be very good prospects and eventually contribute to a major league team. Honestly, however, I am warming up to Nola. His fastball and changeup combo remind me of Michael Wacha, only Nola has better control. At this point in their college careers, Nola is the better of the two with better stuff. But any prospect can either "find it" or "lose it" during their path to the major leagues. I'm less worried about who the Twins take 5th overall than who they miss in the draft as a whole. I would like see a plethora of quality prospects who have the ability and aptitude to become good contributors to the Twins in the future.
    Wacha has a 70-80 grade pitch in his change up. Nola doesn't own a single pitch that grades plus-plus. Also, Wimmers had just as good, if not better, college career as Nola before he came out so be careful of using college stats as a ruler for future success.

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  16. #1114
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmb0252 View Post
    Wacha has a 70-80 grade pitch in his change up. Nola doesn't own a single pitch that grades plus-plus. Also, Wimmers had just as good, if not better, college career as Nola before he came out so be careful of using college stats as a ruler for future success.
    Except that he didn't. For example, Wimmers posted a 4.5BB/9 in college.

  17. #1115
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    Quote Originally Posted by AM. View Post
    Except that he didn't. For example, Wimmers posted a 4.5BB/9 in college.
    Wimmers posted a 11.27 SO/9 vs Nola's 9.36. Nola bet him in WHIP/ERA but Wimmers isn't bad at 1.29/2.93. Oh, and Wimmers had 1 less CG but had 22 less starts. Yes, Nola did have a better college career, my bad, but not by much. When did college numbers become the indicator of big league success.

  18. #1116
    Quote Originally Posted by cmb0252 View Post
    Wacha has a 70-80 grade pitch in his change up. Nola doesn't own a single pitch that grades plus-plus. Also, Wimmers had just as good, if not better, college career as Nola before he came out so be careful of using college stats as a ruler for future success.
    Also the know on Watcha is he only had 2 plus pitches and he still does, it will catch up to him eventually as a starter, could get away with it as a reliever. Nola is a different pitcher but he has 4 plus pitches which is nothing to balk at. The movement on his FB has the potential to make it a plus-plus if he could get a few extra ticks on the velocity, and his breaking ball is very close, I would put it as a 65 right now.

  19. #1117
    Here is an article I dug while on the topic of Wacha v Nola. http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/po...-michael-wacha Nobody projected Wacha a a future ace out of college. In fact, Wacha was projected as a quick to the majors #3 and received comps to Leake. It wasn't until sometime after the 2012 draft that he added a few ticks to his low 90s fastball, making his already plus change up that much more effective. I cannot find anyone who said Wacha had a plus-plus change coming out of college. He simply got better. Why can't Nola also get better? If it is true and he could be a #3 right now it sounds kind of crazy to say that is his ceiling...unless he lacks any coach-ability and has completely maxed his physical ability as a 20 year old. Doubtful. Yes, with a few more inches of height Wacha looks the part of a true #1 more than Nola. Maybe Wacha had a better change coming out of college but Nola has superior command, as good or better fast ball, better curve and a solid change himself. Arguments about arm angle lack merit. The fact is whether a pitcher throws sidearm, 3/4 or right over the top the motion is unnatural and can lead to sever injury. No study shows one method or the other is worse or better for the arm and if such study did exist it would be inherently flawed as no control could exist for such experiment. Take a moment to watch Nola clips and marvel at how much movement his pitches generate and how well he controls where they go. He more than passes the eye test. And, yes, his college stats are better than Wimmers. SEC>>>>>>Big Ten

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  21. #1118
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    Quote Originally Posted by twinsfanstreif View Post
    Also the know on Watcha is he only had 2 plus pitches and he still does, it will catch up to him eventually as a starter, could get away with it as a reliever. Nola is a different pitcher but he has 4 plus pitches which is nothing to balk at. The movement on his FB has the potential to make it a plus-plus if he could get a few extra ticks on the velocity, and his breaking ball is very close, I would put it as a 65 right now.
    There is no point to argue with you if that is how you see Nola's stuff. 4 plus pitches and one being plus-plus? I just can't agree with the optimism. That doesn't make me right or you wrong. It just means we don't see eye to idea.

  22. #1119
    Quote Originally Posted by twinsin17 View Post
    Here is an article I dug while on the topic of Wacha v Nola. http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/po...-michael-wacha Nobody projected Wacha a a future ace out of college. In fact, Wacha was projected as a quick to the majors #3 and received comps to Leake. It wasn't until sometime after the 2012 draft that he added a few ticks to his low 90s fastball, making his already plus change up that much more effective. I cannot find anyone who said Wacha had a plus-plus change coming out of college. He simply got better. Why can't Nola also get better? If it is true and he could be a #3 right now it sounds kind of crazy to say that is his ceiling...unless he lacks any coach-ability and has completely maxed his physical ability as a 20 year old. Doubtful. Yes, with a few more inches of height Wacha looks the part of a true #1 more than Nola. Maybe Wacha had a better change coming out of college but Nola has superior command, as good or better fast ball, better curve and a solid change himself. Arguments about arm angle lack merit. The fact is whether a pitcher throws sidearm, 3/4 or right over the top the motion is unnatural and can lead to sever injury. No study shows one method or the other is worse or better for the arm and if such study did exist it would be inherently flawed as no control could exist for such experiment. Take a moment to watch Nola clips and marvel at how much movement his pitches generate and how well he controls where they go. He more than passes the eye test. And, yes, his college stats are better than Wimmers. SEC>>>>>>Big Ten
    I agree 100%, I hate it when the experts label a guy as a "what you see is what you get" type of guy, no guy out of college has maxed out his potential. Watcha added velocity to his FB and so did Heaney, why not Nola? He isn't the biggest guy but he's not short either.

  23. #1120
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    Quote Originally Posted by twinsin17 View Post
    Here is an article I dug while on the topic of Wacha v Nola. http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/po...-michael-wacha Nobody projected Wacha a a future ace out of college. In fact, Wacha was projected as a quick to the majors #3 and received comps to Leake. It wasn't until sometime after the 2012 draft that he added a few ticks to his low 90s fastball, making his already plus change up that much more effective. I cannot find anyone who said Wacha had a plus-plus change coming out of college. He simply got better. Why can't Nola also get better? If it is true and he could be a #3 right now it sounds kind of crazy to say that is his ceiling...unless he lacks any coach-ability and has completely maxed his physical ability as a 20 year old. Doubtful. Yes, with a few more inches of height Wacha looks the part of a true #1 more than Nola. Maybe Wacha had a better change coming out of college but Nola has superior command, as good or better fast ball, better curve and a solid change himself. Arguments about arm angle lack merit. The fact is whether a pitcher throws sidearm, 3/4 or right over the top the motion is unnatural and can lead to sever injury. No study shows one method or the other is worse or better for the arm and if such study did exist it would be inherently flawed as no control could exist for such experiment. Take a moment to watch Nola clips and marvel at how much movement his pitches generate and how well he controls where they go. He more than passes the eye test. And, yes, his college stats are better than Wimmers. SEC>>>>>>Big Ten
    I don't have enough time to try and pick this apart. As I said above, we can just agree to disagree. The Twins are obviously interested in him but some of you are extremely high on him. We won't know who is right for awhile but I just don't understand the Wacha comparison.

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