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Thread: 2014 MLB Draft Thread

  1. #1221
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmb0252 View Post
    Cf? I don't understand the point of this exercise. Couldn't we say the same thing about every player? Starting pitcher moving to relief pitcher? 3B moving to first? Outfielder to Dh? Is every player to risky?

    Also, what have you read that suggests that he won't be an SS going forward?
    I think this is a risk worth noting for a franchise that has moved Polanco, Goodrum, Levi, Plouffe, etc.

  2. #1222
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    I think this is a risk worth noting for a franchise that has moved Polanco, Goodrum, Levi, Plouffe, etc.
    Moving these guys off SS could have as much to do with a finicky organization as the players inability to man the position. Dozier was an acceptable SS in the minors and after a poor initial tryout was moved to 2B. There is nothing I have seen from Dozier the last two years that would indicate he couldn't play SS.

    I'm also of the belief that had JJ Hardy been developed by the Twins, he would have been moved from from SS long before he reached the majors simply because his size and lack of speed profile against the position. To be fair, I think many clubs would have done the same.

  3. #1223
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    I think this is a risk worth noting for a franchise that has moved Polanco, Goodrum, Levi, Plouffe, etc.
    Haven't we moved plenty of SPers to RPers so shouldn't that be mentioned?

    Also, Polanco has played SS all year.

  4. #1224
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    Call me on this one but I think I have read that the Twins do not consider Polanco a good bet to play shortstop at the MLB level. If that is so why do they have him playing that position this season?

  5. #1225
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    Quote Originally Posted by oldguy10 View Post
    Call me on this one but I think I have read that the Twins do not consider Polanco a good bet to play shortstop at the MLB level. If that is so why do they have him playing that position this season?
    To me it says they know he can play second base and want to see what he can do at SS. It also suggests that moving Dozier off of second is unlikely and Polanco looks to have a very good hit tool. They must feel he has a better shot beating someone out at short or want ot foster his ability to start in a utility role for the MLB club. I agree with you I don't think the Twins see Polanco as a high end defensive SS.

  6. #1226
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    The risk for pitchers has to be accepted because a so very few position players have transitioned to starting pitchers and succeeded at the major league level. The restriction on SS has been raised because 2B is no longer a fall-back position for a "failed" SS, and the 5th OA draft slot is so valuable. Teams typically target a guy who is projected to be a top hittero starting pitcher. Gordon is neither of those--his projection was a solid fielding SS who "hits well for a SS". Hence my question (which didn't receive a response)--is Gordon viable at 3B? Both as a fielder and as a hitter? If so, then he can be drafted 1-5. But if not, then pass on him.

  7. #1227
    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    I think this is a risk worth noting for a franchise that has moved Polanco, Goodrum, Levi, Plouffe, etc.
    I would counter your point by noting that Polanco, Goodrum, and Levi (along with Aderlin Mejia) are all on the same team. That is quite an organizational logjam of projected, or once projected, shortstops at one level. Polanco is the best prospect of the bunch, so he's going to get the lion's share of the reps there. I have yet to read anything that says that all three of the guys, or even any of them, are definitively moved off of shortstop. By all means correct me if I am wrong there. Also, as a team that by all accounts builds itself via the draft, being too risk-averse in drafting premium talent at premium defensive positions will only serve to leave a gaping hole at the highest level of the organization at said positions.

  8. #1228
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    Quote Originally Posted by oldguy10 View Post
    Call me on this one but I think I have read that the Twins do not consider Polanco a good bet to play shortstop at the MLB level. If that is so why do they have him playing that position this season?
    This is a team that stuck with Plouffe forever at SS despite his defensive liabilities. Polanco is not considered a likely SS due to his arm and pretty much only his arm. Gordon has the agility and most definitely the arm to stick at SS. It might happen that he moves but it should not receive a heavy weighting in his draft status.

  9. #1229
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    Quote Originally Posted by neli21 View Post
    I would counter your point by noting that Polanco, Goodrum, and Levi (along with Aderlin Mejia) are all on the same team. That is quite an organizational logjam of projected, or once projected, shortstops at one level. Polanco is the best prospect of the bunch, so he's going to get the lion's share of the reps there. I have yet to read anything that says that all three of the guys, or even any of them, are definitively moved off of shortstop. By all means correct me if I am wrong there. Also, as a team that by all accounts builds itself via the draft, being too risk-averse in drafting premium talent at premium defensive positions will only serve to leave a gaping hole at the highest level of the organization at said positions.
    While true, I have read from knowledgeable people that we don't view any of these guys as the answer at SS due to defensive questions. To the other question, I have not seen anyone suggest Gordons bat will profile at 3B. I have heard he "may" develop 10-15 HR power and nobody thinks he will be a .300 hitter.

  10. #1230
    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    I think this is a risk worth noting for a franchise that has moved Polanco, Goodrum, Levi, Plouffe, etc.
    It's not just that the organization has this tendency. Beyond the reasons spelled out in responses above, players across the sport also simply move off SS regularly.

    Does moving off the premium position of SS exist as a risk with Gordon? Of course, but I don't think any of the players you list came into the organization with the high ratings for their defense that Gordon currently gets.

  11. #1231
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    While true, I have read from knowledgeable people that we don't view any of these guys as the answer at SS due to defensive questions. To the other question, I have not seen anyone suggest Gordons bat will profile at 3B. I have heard he "may" develop 10-15 HR power and nobody thinks he will be a .300 hitter.
    Gordon's bat doesn't necessarily have to profile at 3B in order for him to be valuable at 3B. Here are three batting lines that don't fit the standard 3B profile (two from last year, one from Twins history).

    a) .280, 14 HR, .746 OPS, 102 OPS+
    b) .267, 10 HR, .706 OPS, 82 OPS+
    c) .290, 4 HR, .725 OPS, 90 OPS+

    a = Manny Machado (6.4 bWAR)
    b = Nolan Arenado (3.9 bWAR)
    c = Nick Punto 2006 (3.7 bWAR)

    All of these players provided significantly above-average value due to their defense. Gordon's defensive profile at SS - average to above-average fielding, plus-plus arm - would make him an ELITE 3B. Most people here are concerned that he will be moved off of SS for some reason. It depends on the reason, but if it ends up being range related, he still has the potential to provide well above-average defense at 3B. And at that point he still doesn't need to hit much to be valuable.

  12. #1232
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    Quote Originally Posted by whosafraidofluigirussolo View Post
    It's not just that the organization has this tendency. Beyond the reasons spelled out in responses above, players across the sport also simply move off SS regularly.

    Does moving off the premium position of SS exist as a risk with Gordon? Of course, but I don't think any of the players you list came into the organization with the high ratings for their defense that Gordon currently gets.
    One exception to that rule is Polanco. He was only 16 when he signed, but he was supposed to be a "defensive wizard" who will not hit.

  13. #1233
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    Quote Originally Posted by markos View Post
    Gordon's bat doesn't necessarily have to profile at 3B in order for him to be valuable at 3B. Here are three batting lines that don't fit the standard 3B profile (two from last year, one from Twins history).

    a) .280, 14 HR, .746 OPS, 102 OPS+
    b) .267, 10 HR, .706 OPS, 82 OPS+
    c) .290, 4 HR, .725 OPS, 90 OPS+

    a = Manny Machado (6.4 bWAR)
    b = Nolan Arenado (3.9 bWAR)
    c = Nick Punto 2006 (3.7 bWAR)

    All of these players provided significantly above-average value due to their defense. Gordon's defensive profile at SS - average to above-average fielding, plus-plus arm - would make him an ELITE 3B. Most people here are concerned that he will be moved off of SS for some reason. It depends on the reason, but if it ends up being range related, he still has the potential to provide well above-average defense at 3B. And at that point he still doesn't need to hit much to be valuable.
    I think (a) was a little misleading. Machado got the attention for that line because he was 20 years old, and a .739 OPS at 19 the year before in 51 games.

  14. #1234
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    One exception to that rule is Polanco. He was only 16 when he signed, but he was supposed to be a "defensive wizard" who will not hit.
    Polanco is still a defensive wizard. The problem is that he has a fringy arm for a SS.

    There are usually two reasons why SS prospects move off of SS in the minors. One is arm strength and the other is physical size although there are quite a few fairly large SS's. Gordon has a cannon for an arm and he's not expected to get bulky at all (Beckham comparison ruined). He will fill out a little but he should remain more than agile enough for the position.

  15. #1235
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    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    Polanco is still a defensive wizard. The problem is that he has a fringy arm for a SS.

    There are usually two reasons why SS prospects move off of SS in the minors. One is arm strength and the other is physical size although there are quite a few fairly large SS's. Gordon has a cannon for an arm and he's not expected to get bulky at all (Beckham comparison ruined). He will fill out a little but he should remain more than agile enough for the position.

    OK, we are parsing words. Polanco was supposed to be a lock to stick at SS. We have moved several guys off SS, some were more of a surprise than others. Another example would be Levi, I am guessing we thought he had a good chance to stick at SS or we would not have taken him in the first round.

    It does happen elsewhere too, it just seems like this organization moves them off more conistently.
    Last edited by tobi0040; 06-04-2014 at 09:31 AM.

  16. #1236
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    I think (a) was a little misleading. Machado got the attention for that line because he was 20 years old, and a .739 OPS at 19 the year before in 51 games.
    I'm not sure why this is misleading. I was trying to point out that a player can be very valuable at 3B without having the standard 3B offensive profile - the 25+ HR, .800+ OPS in the Longoria/Beltre/Zimmerman mold. Machado's was incredibly valuable even though he didn't hit like a typical 3B. Yes, everyone is projecting even greater offensive production from him going forward because he is so young, but his age is completely independent of his 2013 value.

  17. #1237
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmb0252 View Post
    New KLaw draft up. Has the Twins taking Gordon. Here is what he had to say:
    Analysis: They have been on Gordon all spring. Assuming the big three arms are gone, as I project here, I think they go with Gordon over their second choice, Aaron Nola. |

    Link here:,

    http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/draft...Law-Mock-Draft
    I think KLaw is off on this one. The Twins haven't been down to see Nola in over a month but have had people watch Newcomb regularly. I think Newcomb is their choice over Nola at this time.

  18. #1238
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    Quote Originally Posted by markos View Post
    I'm not sure why this is misleading. I was trying to point out that a player can be very valuable at 3B without having the standard 3B offensive profile - the 25+ HR, .800+ OPS in the Longoria/Beltre/Zimmerman mold. Machado's was incredibly valuable even though he didn't hit like a typical 3B. Yes, everyone is projecting even greater offensive production from him going forward because he is so young, but his age is completely independent of his 2013 value.
    I guess the question is, did Machado's defense provide so much value, or was he getting a ton of attention because he was A) 20 years old and B) a piece of a resurgence for a franchise that had been down a long time?

    I think at minimum it was a combination. I don't put much value n DWAR, he had a 4.3 in 2013, in the other 80 games he has compiled .8, it is a measure that tends to be volatile.

    Utlimately, I agree a 3B can provide value without hitting 25-30 HR's. I guess for me when I look at the top 6-7 guys (Nola excluded as I am not a huge fan):

    Aiken, Rodon, Jackson, Kolek, Gordon, Touki, and Newcomb, it just looks to me like the ceiling is the lowest for Gordon and that is why I would rather have someone else at #5.
    Last edited by tobi0040; 06-04-2014 at 11:20 AM.

  19. #1239
    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    I think KLaw is off on this one. The Twins haven't been down to see Nola in over a month but have had people watch Newcomb regularly. I think Newcomb is their choice over Nola at this time.
    This is not true, it was stated a week or so ago but there are reports that the Twins have been represented at almost all of Nola's starts including the conference tournament

  20. #1240
    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    Moving these guys off SS could have as much to do with a finicky organization as the players inability to man the position. Dozier was an acceptable SS in the minors and after a poor initial tryout was moved to 2B. There is nothing I have seen from Dozier the last two years that would indicate he couldn't play SS.
    For 1-2 years before Dozier came up all the talk was that he very likely could not stick at SS, so the fact that he moved to 2B was 100% expected.

    Here's a link to fangraphs that has 2-3 excerpts mentioning it.
    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/daily...-headquarters/

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