Minnesota Twins News & Rumors Forum
Page 3 of 11 FirstFirst 12345 ... LastLast
Results 41 to 60 of 201

Thread: Mystery teams in on Drew

  1. #41
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    1,253
    Like
    0
    Liked 1 Time in 1 Post
    Blog Entries
    1
    Why even buy pitchers if you don't improve your bats. Why wait when you can improve now. Ryan why only half a team?

  2. #42
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    1,042
    Like
    91
    Liked 242 Times in 175 Posts
    Blog Entries
    5
    Quote Originally Posted by TheDean View Post
    Hey now; you're cutting our friend Slowey out of your count because he earned exactly 5.0 WAR (so far)? I'm not sure it's fair to say that 3 of 30 have been worth over 5 WAR (or that 23 never really made it) if you're including picks from the last few drafts. I'm not about to give up on Eades, Melotakis, or Goodrum quite yet. Besides that a few of those guys still have a shot to increase (or decrease) their career worth (e.g. Swarzak).

    As far as the three win improvement over Florimon - I see that in what I would call similarly above average years for both players in 2013, Drew was only +1 WAR above Florimon. I understand that Bbref WAR isn't the best measure of contribution, but if it's okay to use it to assess draft picks, wouldn't it also be okay to assess the potential upgrade of Drew over Florimon?
    We can split hairs here, but Melotakis and Chargois are relievers. Eades is a potential #4 or #5 starter IF he makes it. Then 1/3 of the 30 picks made the big leagues. 2 of which are starting pitchers and never really amounted to much. Half would have been relievers.

    I think the odds are Goodrum is not the Twins SS for an extended period of time. He has to fight guys currently in the system, some view him as a 2B where he is way back on the depth chart. And we could draft one of two SS in the next draft at #5.

    I would not hand out 2nd picks every year, but when you have no MLB talent on the depth chart and you aren't mortgaging the team, have the money, etc. I wouldn't dwell on a 2nd rounder.

    Personally, I don't buy Dwar as much as Owar. For example, they have Drew's offense at 2.5 WAR over Florimon. Florimon's defense at 1.5 WAR over Drew. Seems to me if you give them both 600 at bats, you have 30 more hits for Drew, about 2/3 of which are extra base hits. More RBI, HR, Runs scored, and Walks. I don't see a few extra balls that don't get through the infield or an additional error or two as negating half of that. It seems to be defensive stats overstate the impact on games. The pitch framing numbers are certainly out of whack.
    Last edited by tobi0040; 02-19-2014 at 10:53 AM.

  3. #43
    Senior Member All-Star Boom Boom's Avatar
    Posts
    1,076
    Like
    10
    Liked 210 Times in 97 Posts
    Hopefully the Twins are in on Drew and this is another situation like 2009 when the Twins kept insisting they were good with the Harris/Buscher monster at third base until they signed Joe Crede on Feb. 21st.

  4. #44
    Banned All-Star
    Posts
    1,498
    Like
    419
    Liked 75 Times in 49 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    I view it is either I get to watch a MLB short stop and see my favorite team win 3 more games, or the Pohlad's make another $9M this year. Payroll should be $112M at 52% of revenue and it is at $82M. We have tons of cheap rookies on the way (CF, LF, 3B, 2b, SP x 2) and a 2 year deal would not hamper future plans.
    last year 215 million + 25 million more in tv revenue + 30 million in All Star money=? x 50-52%

  5. This user likes johnnydakota's post and wants to buy him/her a steak dinner:

    jokin (02-20-2014)

  6. #45
    Senior Member Double-A
    Posts
    105
    Like
    24
    Liked 45 Times in 25 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    I would not hand out 2nd picks every year, but when you have no MLB talent on the depth chart and you aren't mortgaging the team, have the money, etc. I wouldn't dwell on a 2nd rounder.
    Big picture, I totally agree. There's a clear opportunity to upgrade the SS position, and there's money to be spent. If the 2nd rounder can be justified, it would be great for Ryan to pull the trigger (the side debate is whether the Twins are even in the running).
    I just wanted to make sure that dropping a high pick isn't something that happens often. Despite the fact that the Twins have had seemingly poor results turning 2nd rounders into big leaguers, my guess is that the 2nd round pick this year will be relatively early (unfortunately), and the odds of snagging a good player will be higher than their average odds over the last 24 years.

  7. This user likes TheDean's post and wants to buy him/her a steak dinner:

    TheLeviathan (02-19-2014)

  8. #46
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
    Posts
    2,271
    Like
    241
    Liked 461 Times in 290 Posts
    Blog Entries
    1
    Quote Originally Posted by TheDean View Post
    Big picture, I totally agree. There's a clear opportunity to upgrade the SS position, and there's money to be spent. If the 2nd rounder can be justified, it would be great for Ryan to pull the trigger (the side debate is whether the Twins are even in the running).
    I just wanted to make sure that dropping a high pick isn't something that happens often. Despite the fact that the Twins have had seemingly poor results turning 2nd rounders into big leaguers, my guess is that the 2nd round pick this year will be relatively early (unfortunately), and the odds of snagging a good player will be higher than their average odds over the last 24 years.
    Yes. It will be a top 50 pick for sure. Back when the sandwich round was 30 picks deep and the Twins picked towards the back of the draft, it was barely a top 100 pick (2007, e.g.). Coupled with the fact that this is the deepest draft in years, and the player they get will most likely be more valuable than Drew at this stage in his career. So, by June, you're already in the red as far as value, not counting the dollars and giving away whatever value you have in Florimon.

    If you calculate this by WAR and you consider Florimon a replacement player, you're getting 2 WAR and giving up a future 3-4 WAR player, worst case scenario. The case is iffy at best, especially in a year when you don't expect to contend.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

  9. This user likes cmathewson's post and wants to buy him/her a steak dinner:

    twinsfan34 (02-19-2014)

  10. #47
    Senior Member Triple-A
    Posts
    263
    Like
    19
    Liked 38 Times in 26 Posts
    Blog Entries
    2
    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    I would give him a 2 year deal and a team option for a third. Probably 2/18. I would not panic about a mystery team as that typically means you are bidding against yourself.

    Drew would be 3 win upgrade in each of the next two years. He is not an all star, but he is going to give you another 30 hits, 20 extra base hits, more RBI, more runs, and get on base more than Pedro. We have the money and we are not mortgaging our future.

    As far as the second round pick goes, since 1990 we have had 30 picks in the second round. I don't see a single guy that has made an all star team. Jacque was a solid player for a period of time. Baker was the only other guy that was at one point both productive and promising as a player. Obviously you have other guys that have been contributors like Swarzak and Crain. Exactly three of these players have had a career WAR above 5. 23 never really made it (more than 100 AB's).

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/dr...ft_type=junreg
    A realistic and fair comp would not be what the Twins have done with a second round draft pick, but what has the league done for results.

  11. This user likes pierre75275's post and wants to buy him/her a steak dinner:

    twinsfan34 (02-19-2014)

  12. #48
    Banned Big-Leaguer
    Posts
    715
    Like
    82
    Liked 40 Times in 29 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    We can split hairs here, but Melotakis and Chargois are relievers. Eades is a potential #4 or #5 starter IF he makes it. Then 1/3 of the 30 picks made the big leagues. 2 of which are starting pitchers and never really amounted to much. Half would have been relievers.

    I think the odds are Goodrum is not the Twins SS for an extended period of time. He has to fight guys currently in the system, some view him as a 2B where he is way back on the depth chart. And we could draft one of two SS in the next draft at #5.

    I would not hand out 2nd picks every year, but when you have no MLB talent on the depth chart and you aren't mortgaging the team, have the money, etc. I wouldn't dwell on a 2nd rounder.

    Personally, I don't buy Dwar as much as Owar. For example, they have Drew's offense at 2.5 WAR over Florimon. Florimon's defense at 1.5 WAR over Drew. Seems to me if you give them both 600 at bats, you have 30 more hits for Drew, about 2/3 of which are extra base hits. More RBI, HR, Runs scored, and Walks. I don't see a few extra balls that don't get through the infield or an additional error or two as negating half of that.
    Somewhere I read the Twins the project Eades as a #2 and couldn't believe he fell to them. Don't concern yourself with 15 innings of rookie ball, that was just busy work after a very long college season for the workhorse. In comparison, Meyer didn't throw a pitch after the Nationals drafted him. Mayo has as our #10 prospect.

  13. #49
    Twins Moderator MVP ashburyjohn's Avatar
    Posts
    8,574
    Like
    2,585
    Liked 3,201 Times in 1,701 Posts
    Blog Entries
    28
    Quote Originally Posted by howieramone View Post
    and couldn't believe he fell to them.
    But isn't that pretty much true of any pick, by any team? And it's not just the PR team trying to put a positive spin on it. Almost by definition, unless every team's scouting happens to be in lockstep, the guy you pick wasn't the guy the teams just above you wanted, and wouldn't have been the guy the next few teams would have taken either.

    If you trust your scouting, then you construct your list and when a guy you like is unexpectedly still there, you grab him with confidence.

  14. #50
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
    Posts
    4,698
    Like
    157
    Liked 619 Times in 344 Posts
    I'm pretty sure Drew won't hit enough that if we wanted to trade him on July 31, that we'd get equal value to the 2nd rounder we lose to sign him.

    And as cmathewson pointed out....extending the deal only further guarantees we endure his sub-prime years at a healthy price. No thanks. A day may come soon when the Drews of the world make sense for us. But it ain't now.

  15. This user likes TheLeviathan's post and wants to buy him/her a steak dinner:

    twinsfan34 (02-19-2014)

  16. #51
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    1,042
    Like
    91
    Liked 242 Times in 175 Posts
    Blog Entries
    5
    Quote Originally Posted by johnnydakota View Post
    last year 215 million + 25 million more in tv revenue + 30 million in All Star money=? x 50-52%
    Good call, I was going off last years revenue and getting to $112M. It is really a bit of a joke that we are at $82M and falling after next year (Correa and Josh).

  17. This user likes tobi0040's post and wants to buy him/her a steak dinner:

    johnnydakota (02-19-2014)

  18. #52
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
    Posts
    3,907
    Like
    75
    Liked 361 Times in 183 Posts
    I will have fun bumping this thread every time Florimon goes 0-4 with 7 LOB in a one run loss this year.
    "You miss 100% of the shots you don't take"- L. Harvey Oswald


  19. This user likes SpiritofVodkaDave's post and wants to buy him/her a steak dinner:

    jokin (02-20-2014)

  20. #53
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
    Posts
    4,698
    Like
    157
    Liked 619 Times in 344 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    I will have fun bumping this thread every time Florimon goes 0-4 with 7 LOB in a one run loss this year.
    I'm highly dubious of this lineup putting 7 guys on base all game on most nights, much less in front of Florimon, but that still doesn't mean Drew makes sense.

  21. These 4 users like TheLeviathan's post and want to buy him/her a steak dinner:

    johnnydakota (02-19-2014), Monkeypaws (02-19-2014), Riverbrian (02-19-2014), twinsfan34 (02-19-2014)

  22. #54
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    1,042
    Like
    91
    Liked 242 Times in 175 Posts
    Blog Entries
    5
    Quote Originally Posted by pierre75275 View Post
    A realistic and fair comp would not be what the Twins have done with a second round draft pick, but what has the league done for results.
    I did a quick look at the 2004-2006 MLB Drafts. I am using WAR because it is a quick way to see who made it up to here and have done something. Each draft had 31 picks. 2004 had 6, 2005 had 4, and 2006 had 5 guys with a career WAR over 4 (16% of the total picks).

    Here is a list of the studs, out of 93 picks:

    Gollardo, Headley, Pence, Pedrioa, Yunel Escobar, and Cahill. So your odds of getting hosed on this deal, given a small sample size is 6.4%.

  23. #55
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    1,042
    Like
    91
    Liked 242 Times in 175 Posts
    Blog Entries
    5
    Quote Originally Posted by howieramone View Post
    Somewhere I read the Twins the project Eades as a #2 and couldn't believe he fell to them. Don't concern yourself with 15 innings of rookie ball, that was just busy work after a very long college season for the workhorse. In comparison, Meyer didn't throw a pitch after the Nationals drafted him. Mayo has as our #10 prospect.
    Nothing in this scouting report tells me he is a #2 starter.
    Personally, inconsistent release points, command issues, fastball up in the zone, average deception, curve that does not break like it should, etc. reads more like a HS prospect than a college prospect.

    Fastball: 50/50
    Heater has above-average velocity at 91-93, touching 94, but is very true and Eades pitches with it up in the zone a little too often; command is spotty; control is average and deception allows the pitch to miss bats; will have to fool big league hitters with deception in order to succeed by pitching off the fastball.

    Curveball: 45/50
    Breaking ball is his worst pitch right now; doesn't break like it should right now, looking more like a slurve in the 77-80 mph range; will have to find consistent release point and finish in order for the pitch to be big league average.

    Changeup: 50/55
    Easily his most effective weapon right now and in the future; excellent feel for the pitch and good movement in the zone; sits around 79-82 and arm speed gives it great deception; tends to pitch off the changeup, which could make it easier for pro hitters to sit on.

    Control: 45/55
    Delivery makes it more difficult to throw strikes, but because Eades hides the ball so well, he can generate swings and misses or weak contact; arm gets a little stiff after planting front leg, leading to the ball sailing on him; control of fastball has to improve in order to reach ultimate ceiling; changeup can be thrown in any situation for strikes.


    http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1...2nd-round-pick

  24. This user likes tobi0040's post and wants to buy him/her a steak dinner:

    jokin (02-20-2014)

  25. #56
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    3,535
    Like
    61
    Liked 340 Times in 216 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    2011 and 2012 Drew numbers are not really useful for comparison purposes, much like Hardy's injury-riddled year with the Twins and his last year with the Brewers. A better way to look at it, and most importantly, one that completely takes out the Fenway Effect, is to compare Drew's OPS+ number from 2010 in Arizona and 2013 in Boston-

    OPS+ of 113 in Arizona and 111 in Boston-------
    Florimon had an OPS+ of 70 in 2013- OUCH!.....
    League SS Average OPS+ was 94......
    To take out the Fenway Effect, why wouldn't you just look at his road splits from last year?

    136 OPS+ at Fenway
    94 OPS+ everywhere else

    He's league average at best away from Fenway. That's not worth $10-13 mill plus a draft pick.
    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post

    Clearly, a healthy Hardy and a healthy Drew are a big upgrade over Florimon, who probably had his career year at the plate in 2013. I'm with USAFChief, Drew will still be playing long after Florimon plays himself out of the League.

    A real head-scratcher why some are so resistant to this deal, for an obvious upgrade, that doesn't block any prospect, with plenty of payroll room to spare- and by the time they move Correia and Willingham, their net payroll will be well below $80M.
    Why is it a head scratcher? Everyone acknowledges that Drew is a better player than Florimon at least to some degree. I'll bet you'd even get most of us anti-Drew folks to agree that a one year deal would be just fine because money is not a factor in 2013, but we don't konw if it may be next year, or the year after. None of us want to be on the hook for $20-26 million over the final two years of his contract. He cannot hit lefties, and he was not good away from Fenway, saying nothing about how he can't stay on the field. The Twins are willing to spend money these days it seems, I'd much rather that money earmarked for 2015 and 2016 go to a player who is much less likely to be platooning by then. There will be free agents next year too after all.
    Last edited by nicksaviking; 02-19-2014 at 11:46 AM.

  26. This user likes nicksaviking's post and wants to buy him/her a steak dinner:

    Riverbrian (02-19-2014)

  27. #57
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    3,535
    Like
    61
    Liked 340 Times in 216 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    I will have fun bumping this thread every time Florimon goes 0-4 with 7 LOB in a one run loss this year.
    Fair enough, but only if I get to bring it back out every time Drew's benched because a lefty is on the mound or when he's hanging out on the DL.

  28. These 2 users like nicksaviking's post and want to buy him/her a steak dinner:

    big dog (02-19-2014), twinsfan34 (02-19-2014)

  29. #58
    Banned Big-Leaguer
    Posts
    715
    Like
    82
    Liked 40 Times in 29 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    Nothing in this scouting report tells me he is a #2 starter.
    Personally, inconsistent release points, command issues, fastball up in the zone, average deception, curve that does not break like it should, etc. reads more like a HS prospect than a college prospect.

    Fastball: 50/50
    Heater has above-average velocity at 91-93, touching 94, but is very true and Eades pitches with it up in the zone a little too often; command is spotty; control is average and deception allows the pitch to miss bats; will have to fool big league hitters with deception in order to succeed by pitching off the fastball.

    Curveball: 45/50
    Breaking ball is his worst pitch right now; doesn't break like it should right now, looking more like a slurve in the 77-80 mph range; will have to find consistent release point and finish in order for the pitch to be big league average.

    Changeup: 50/55
    Easily his most effective weapon right now and in the future; excellent feel for the pitch and good movement in the zone; sits around 79-82 and arm speed gives it great deception; tends to pitch off the changeup, which could make it easier for pro hitters to sit on.

    Control: 45/55
    Delivery makes it more difficult to throw strikes, but because Eades hides the ball so well, he can generate swings and misses or weak contact; arm gets a little stiff after planting front leg, leading to the ball sailing on him; control of fastball has to improve in order to reach ultimate ceiling; changeup can be thrown in any situation for strikes.


    http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1...2nd-round-pick
    Check out Mayo he used different scouts. Did I mention Eades was the Cape Cod Pitcher of the Year in 2011?

  30. This user likes howieramone's post and wants to buy him/her a steak dinner:

    twinsfan34 (02-19-2014)

  31. #59
    Senior Member All-Star Boom Boom's Avatar
    Posts
    1,076
    Like
    10
    Liked 210 Times in 97 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    I'm pretty sure Drew won't hit enough that if we wanted to trade him on July 31, that we'd get equal value to the 2nd rounder we lose to sign him.

    And as cmathewson pointed out....extending the deal only further guarantees we endure his sub-prime years at a healthy price. No thanks. A day may come soon when the Drews of the world make sense for us. But it ain't now.
    Other than the loss of a pick, I could use all the same reasons to argue the Twins shouldn't have signed Nolasco. He doesn't make them good enough to justify handing out that kind of contract when the team isn't going anywhere right now anyway.

  32. #60
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    1,042
    Like
    91
    Liked 242 Times in 175 Posts
    Blog Entries
    5
    Quote Originally Posted by howieramone View Post
    Check out Mayo he used different scouts. Did I mention Eades was the Cape Cod Pitcher of the Year in 2011?
    Cape Cod was 32 innings.

Page 3 of 11 FirstFirst 12345 ... LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
©2014 TwinsCentric, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
Interested in advertising with Twins Daily? Click here.