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Thread: Mystery teams in on Drew

  1. #141
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    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    I'm not sure why you think his splits don't matter. We dwell on his home production from last year because in 2012, his production at home AND on the road was awful.
    I guess if you subscribe to the theory that one of the lasting effects of a broken ankle is poor hitting everywhere but Fenway Park, this is a salient point.

    Obviously 2012 is bad everywhere -- home, road, RHP, LHP. I don't like making excuses, but it's kinda hard to ignore a broken ankle.

    And 2013? He had 237 PA on the road, and only 167 PA vs LHP. Those are mightly small samples to write a guy off as a product of Fenway or strictly a platoon player (not saying he isn't better at home and vs RHP, like virtually all MLB LHB, but the difference is probably closer to his career averages than his relatively small 2013 sample).

    I'm not saying he will necessarily hit his career numbers every year (98 OPS+) -- even pre-injury, the guy bounced between 90 and 110 OPS+ figures. I just think that 90-110 is still the working range for Drew, for this year and the next couple, which is a fair sight better than Florimon's 70. (I know defense counts too, although there is less confidence in those numbers, and outside of Andrelton Simmons, the performance range is much narrower than on offense.)

    And with the current market, we could actually get Drew for less than anticipated (MLBTR predicted 4/48, with a low estimate of 3/36), which is better than waiting to see what a future offseason brings (or doesn't bring) or continuing to cycle through fringe/waiver guys indefinitely.

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  3. #142
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    Quote Originally Posted by big dog View Post
    To me, the better evidence of Drew's regard in baseball is that teams are reporting without him. That worries me. A lot.
    They reported without Lohse last year. They're also reporting without Ervin Santana, Cruz, and Morales this year.

    Late signings under the new comp system really can't be compared to late signings of days gone by.

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  5. #143
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
    I have said one year with an option. As far as terms, I could see 2/20 total, with a sizable portion of that built into incentives and the vesting option. And make the incentives/vesting doable, based on games or PAs or something, not on performance.With these clauses, you're mostly mitigating the risks of significant injury, which is a major reason guys after 30 decline. There's always a way to mitigate risks through terms like this. But I wouldn't be enthused about a straight 2/20.
    Thanks for the answer. 2/20 guaranteed is your absolute, holding-your-nose-while-signing-it top end. (And for the record, I believe MLB contract incentives can only be based on playing time rather than performance -- although I believe "games finished" can skirt that rule for closers.)

    Now, what kind of production would you project from Drew for your 2/20? PA, OPS+, dWAR? What kind of production would you project, today, from the Twins in-house alternatives? Just trying to see if we disagree on valuation or projection.

    Personally, unless a physical reveals his ankle is held together by duct tape, I think 2/20 would be an absolute steal. As noted above, MLBTR predicted 4/48 for Drew, with a low estimate of 3/36, and they've been pretty accurate. He took 1/10 last year for a starting gig on a big media market contender, when there were still lingering questions about his recovery. Proposing 2/20 as your maximum acceptable contract now is basically saying you don't want the player under any circumstances. Might as well make the same 2/20 offer to Ervin Santana to compete for the 5th starter's job.

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  7. #144
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    2/20 wouldn't upset me like a 3 year deal would, but does anyone really think he will come to Minnesota on a two year deal? If he lowers his demands to two years, he will likely get the Red Sox, Mets, Yankees and other high profile coastal cities back in play. And if he lowers his demands on years, he's likely going to raise it on price.

    In the end the Twins would have to overpay (most likely in years) for a guy who half of us don't trust anyway.
    Last edited by nicksaviking; 02-20-2014 at 01:24 PM.

  8. #145
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
    I wouldn't draw that conclusion in this case. Yes they're tight, but they are extremely interested in winning. They just take a longer view than we tend to. I wouldn't worry about stop gap signings like Kubel. The real talent is on the way from the minors.

    In the next few years, this team will be back in the playoffs. Does Drew help that cause? Probably not. If not, is it worth throwing money and a draft pick at him? Not unless the terms are more favorable than he is currently asking for.

    I agree they are intersted in winning in the back half of 2015 and 2016. I was hoping we had a group interested in winning every year, or at least fielding a competitive team.

  9. #146
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    Quote Originally Posted by spycake View Post
    They reported without Lohse last year. They're also reporting without Ervin Santana, Cruz, and Morales this year.

    Late signings under the new comp system really can't be compared to late signings of days gone by.
    I'm not comparing them to late signings of days gone by. I'm saying right now, no major league team has signed Drew (or the others). If that doesn't at least cause a little concern, why not? Because every other team is set at shortstop?

  10. #147
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    They offered him a poison pill. Something they knew he wouldn't take, that would get them a draft pick. They killed two birds with one stone....let him leave and open up a compensation possibility. The notion that the 14m QO is a testament to his value is twisting things.



    Well, yeah it's an opinion roundly shared by almost every expert who made a list you can find. There is a case to be made for Drew but it isn't Drew's D > Florimon's D. That to me just shows an unwillingness to fairly compare the two.

    I also find it odd you loudly trumpet the merits of moving Mauer and bemoan decline phases. The justifications are working off the same model of prediction - basically the concept of statistical likelihood.
    1. They offered him a one year, $14M contract. How you want to define that offer is a matter of opinion, but the facts are not in agreement with the earlier claim the world champs had "cast (Drew) off." Actually, the facts are just the opposite...Drew declined the world champs offer, not the other way around.

    2. I have never claimed "Drew's D > Florimon's D." I have said the difference between the two defensively probably isn't near as great as some here have claimed, which is why I took issue with the claim "Florimon is a vastly superior defender." If you can point me to "almost every expert's" written opinion so stating, I'll consider changing my opinion.

    3. I trumpeted the merits of moving Mauer because keeping him in the lineup is an important part of any Twins success, and he was never going to be in the lineup every day as a catcher, even if he stayed healthy. Mauer's bat is what's important to the Twins, not whether he plays catcher or first. It also occurs to me that if "decline phase" is an issue, then I assume you were opposed to signing Mauer to an 8 yr contract, no? Much of his contract will happen during that time frame.
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  11. #148
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    Quote Originally Posted by big dog View Post
    I'm not comparing them to late signings of days gone by. I'm saying right now, no major league team has signed Drew (or the others). If that doesn't at least cause a little concern, why not? Because every other team is set at shortstop?
    It should, and does.

    But...as has been pointed out, not every team has the need, not every team has the money, and most teams will forfeit a 1st rnd pick, not a second rnd pick.

    Combine those factors and the market for Drew is fairly limited, a factor which some of us think works in the Twins favor, rather than against it.
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  12. #149
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    Quote Originally Posted by spycake View Post
    Thanks for the answer. 2/20 guaranteed is your absolute, holding-your-nose-while-signing-it top end. (And for the record, I believe MLB contract incentives can only be based on playing time rather than performance -- although I believe "games finished" can skirt that rule for closers.)

    Now, what kind of production would you project from Drew for your 2/20? PA, OPS+, dWAR? What kind of production would you project, today, from the Twins in-house alternatives? Just trying to see if we disagree on valuation or projection.

    Personally, unless a physical reveals his ankle is held together by duct tape, I think 2/20 would be an absolute steal. As noted above, MLBTR predicted 4/48 for Drew, with a low estimate of 3/36, and they've been pretty accurate. He took 1/10 last year for a starting gig on a big media market contender, when there were still lingering questions about his recovery. Proposing 2/20 as your maximum acceptable contract now is basically saying you don't want the player under any circumstances. Might as well make the same 2/20 offer to Ervin Santana to compete for the 5th starter's job.
    I would look for an OPS+ in the 90-100 range. UZR at about the water line. Total WAR around 2. Something like. I know "the market" values 1 WAR as $7 million. But I would hope for a bargain at this stage in the offseason.

    I think Florimon is slightly above replacement level. His bat might be a negative. But, I'd say his glove should carry him up to 1 WAR, or thereabouts. Next year, I expect Santana to be close to a 2 WAR, .5 for bat and 1.5 for glove. But I recognize that I'm higher on Santana than most.

    I would have to hold my nose more on the draft pick than the money. We're talking about a net gain of 1 WAR, spending 20 million plus a draft pick is definitely a close-your-eyes-and-pray kind of decision.
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  13. #150
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    Quote Originally Posted by spycake View Post
    Here's the Diamondbacks owner quotes about Drew:


    On Drew: "I'm going to be real direct about Stephen. I think Stephen should have been out there playing before now, frankly. I, for one, am disappointed. I'm going to be real candid and say Stephen and his representatives are more focused on where Stephen is going to be a year from now than on going out and supporting the team that's paying his salary."
    What can you do?: "All you can do is hope that the player is treating the situation with integrity. Frankly, we have our concerns."
    Have you talked to Drew?: "I have not, really, I don't think it's my place to do so, but others have."
    How did Drew respond?: "I think he (long pause) was not very direct. He needs more time to get ready. I'm speaking from his perspective."


    Read more: http://www.azcentral.com/sports/diam...#ixzz2tsEBOysj

    Seems pretty weak to hold that against the player. Especially when the same owner, and same front office and field staff, has talked of multiple other players (i.e. Justin Upton) in almost the same way. If anything, this tells me more about the Diamondbacks org than it does any particular player.
    Well said.

    I do want to be clear that I'm not saying the owner or Drew is right. My main concern is Drew's numbers are not worthy of 10 million plus at multi years.

    Quotes mean very little to me because they are often misleading. I only used it to show that something was up.

    To me actions speak louder than words.

    We can blame Arizona for trading Drew to Oakland for Jamieson and say Arizona is poorly run in hindsight. That may have been a mistake. I don't know.

    But... Can we at least assume that they tried to see if any of the other 29 teams were willing to offer more than a 17th round pick that was not performing well at Low A.

    No one else wanted Drew at that low price. That's an action that speaks louder than words. It happened in 2012.

    Arizona traded him for nothing and didn't have a replacement at the time. That's an action that speaks louder than words. It gives me pause.

    While pausing... I still believe that you are paying 10 million for position scarcity and not actual production and that's my biggest issue.
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  14. #151
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    Quote Originally Posted by USAFChief View Post
    1. They offered him a one year, $14M contract. How you want to define that offer is a matter of opinion, but the facts are not in agreement with the earlier claim the world champs had "cast (Drew) off." Actually, the facts are just the opposite...Drew declined the world champs offer, not the other way around.
    They only offered it to him because they knew his agent would never accept it. They didn't want him back, so they tried to get compensation for him on the way out the door. Nothing more. It was an offer with no intention, nor any expectation, of him accepting it. They let him go, plain and simple.

    If you can point me to "almost every expert's" written opinion so stating, I'll consider changing my opinion.
    What, exactly, is your basis for saying there isn't that much of a difference? I've got, by my count, six reputable links ready. But I'd love to hear why Drew is even comparable. And don't give me anything about "less athletic shortstops" or any of this other speculation. I'd like to hear where your evidence is as well. Here's one of my six links, the rest all have similar results:

    http://www.fieldingbible.com/complete-votetally.asp

    I trumpeted the merits of moving Mauer because keeping him in the lineup is an important part of any Twins success, and he was never going to be in the lineup every day as a catcher, even if he stayed healthy.
    You missed the important similarity. Moving Mauer wasn't important because he was in his decline phase. Moving him was important because there was a high statistical probability that his bat would stay in the lineup more often moving to first. And there was a much lower statistical probability of another concussion.

    Likewise, there is a high statistical probability that Drew is declining or about to very soon. Same principle, it's one I'm sure you accept as a justification for many, many other things as well.

  15. #152
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
    I would look for an OPS+ in the 90-100 range. UZR at about the water line. Total WAR around 2. Something like. I know "the market" values 1 WAR as $7 million. But I would hope for a bargain at this stage in the offseason.

    I think Florimon is slightly above replacement level. His bat might be a negative. But, I'd say his glove should carry him up to 1 WAR, or thereabouts. Next year, I expect Santana to be close to a 2 WAR, .5 for bat and 1.5 for glove. But I recognize that I'm higher on Santana than most.

    I would have to hold my nose more on the draft pick than the money. We're talking about a net gain of 1 WAR, spending 20 million plus a draft pick is definitely a close-your-eyes-and-pray kind of decision.
    Thanks again for the numbers.

    Aside from his lost injury year of 2012, Drew has 5 consecutive years of prorated 3+ WAR, including last year's 3.1 in only 124 games. He's actually pretty consistent in that regard. And it's mostly batting WAR, which should be more projectable than defensive WAR.

    And there's no way 2/20, or even 3/30, prevents this team from making any other move, really. Just a pretty modest investment that shows you're not completely punting 2014, and you're slightly less likely to punt 2015 too.

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  17. #153
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    Quote Originally Posted by spycake View Post
    Thanks again for the numbers.
    And there's no way 2/20, or even 3/30, prevents this team from making any other move, really. Just a pretty modest investment that shows you're not completely punting 2014, and you're slightly less likely to punt 2015 too.
    That is the point I keep coming back to. $10M a year for the next 2-3 years does not mean we can't afford anyone later.

    They signed pitchers because our staff was embarrassing and know that if that marginally improves, the heat will be off t hem for the most part. That seems to be the motivation, just enough.

  18. #154
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    Quote Originally Posted by spycake View Post
    Thanks again for the numbers.

    Aside from his lost injury year of 2012, Drew has 5 consecutive years of prorated 3+ WAR, including last year's 3.1 in only 124 games. He's actually pretty consistent in that regard. And it's mostly batting WAR, which should be more projectable than defensive WAR.

    And there's no way 2/20, or even 3/30, prevents this team from making any other move, really. Just a pretty modest investment that shows you're not completely punting 2014, and you're slightly less likely to punt 2015 too.
    I expect some regression from 3+, about 1 WAR from age and the + from home ballpark. My projection might be more pessimistic than most. But, there it is.
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  19. #155
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    That is the point I keep coming back to. $10M a year for the next 2-3 years does not mean we can't afford anyone later.

    They signed pitchers because our staff was embarrassing and know that if that marginally improves, the heat will be off t hem for the most part. That seems to be the motivation, just enough.
    And what if some combination of Pelfrey, Hughes and Nolasco flop and the Twins are willing to go after another bigger named pitcher again next year? If James Shields or Justin Masterson are available and the Twins are already at $90-100 million, the odds the Twins go after them probably decreases a lot.

    And if not in 2015, what about 2016? I don't want that dead salary on the books in three years.

  20. #156
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    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    And what if some combination of Pelfrey, Hughes and Nolasco flop and the Twins are willing to go after another bigger named pitcher again next year? If James Shields or Justin Masterson are available and the Twins are already at $90-100 million, the odds the Twins go after them probably decreases a lot.

    And if not in 2015, what about 2016? I don't want that dead salary on the books in three years.
    With Drew Payroll would be about $92M. We lose $12M next year (Corea and Josh). So start at $80M and add back 2 starters making the minimum, add a CF making the minimum, potentially both corner OF making min. (Arcia and Hicks), and a 3B making the minimum.

    A payroll at $80M is $30M to $40M below the recommendation of 52% of revenue. Really a moot point, Shields will get a 6-7 year, $150M+ contract and we aren't going there for a pitcher. But this should not stop us from doing anything.

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  22. #157
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    Quote Originally Posted by Riverbrian View Post

    Quotes mean very little to me because they are often misleading. I only used it to show that something was up.

    To me actions speak louder than words.

    Arizona traded him for nothing and didn't have a replacement at the time. That's an action that speaks louder than words. It gives me pause.

    .
    Drew's actions in 2013 speak louder than all of the words of doubt on this thread, by far.

    Most of your defense of your position is "words", which you admit are misleading, by an owner who not only completely misjudged Drew' rehabilitating status.......and maybe this didn't occur to you..... but he committed a foolish self-inflicted wound, by castigating his own asset's potential trading value in public...and now he has egg on his face for those foolish actions.
    Last edited by jokin; 02-21-2014 at 12:47 PM.

  23. #158
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    Quote Originally Posted by spycake View Post
    Thanks again for the numbers.

    Aside from his lost injury year of 2012, Drew has 5 consecutive years of prorated 3+ WAR, including last year's 3.1 in only 124 games. He's actually pretty consistent in that regard. And it's mostly batting WAR, which should be more projectable than defensive WAR.

    And there's no way 2/20, or even 3/30, prevents this team from making any other move, really. Just a pretty modest investment that shows you're not completely punting 2014, and you're slightly less likely to punt 2015 too.

    Yeoman work spycake, well stated.

  24. #159
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    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    Ten million (or possibly $13 million) may be reasonable for this year, but likely not in 2015 or 2016.

    I'm not sure why you think his splits don't matter. We dwell on his home production from last year because in 2012, his production at home AND on the road was awful.

    Breaking it down:
    2012 Road-Bad
    2012 Home-Bad
    2013 Road-Bad
    2013 Home-Good

    Why would we focus on the quarter of the time he was good as opposed to the 3/4 of the time he was terrible? I also don't know why people want to continue to use his past, pre-injury data to make a point. Recent data is, and should always be a stronger consideration. His career numbers are not as useful as his recent numbers, why would you pay for them?

    Jose Valverde only got a minor league deal, so will Johan Santana. Joe Saunders still can't get a job. No one is rushing out to re-sign Manny Rameriz and he wants to still play. Yet somehow the model is different for Drew simply because he plays a position of need?
    3 strawmen for the price of one? The current situations for Valverde, Santana and Ramirez resemble Drew's situation in no way whatsoever.

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    Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
    I expect some regression from 3+, about 1 WAR from age and the + from home ballpark. My projection might be more pessimistic than most. But, there it is.
    Actually, 2 WAR is about what Steamer and Oliver have Drew pegged for too. So it's not unreasonable, although I do think it more pessimistic than a true mean/median projection should be, because we know specifically what caused Drew's sudden 2012 decline, and most projection systems don't. (Remember, to them, this is a guy who simply hit like Pedro Florimon for one season.)

    Even if 2 WAR is your median projection, he's still got 3+ WAR upside (his 2013 was 3.75 WAR prorated to 150 games) and, having reached that level at age 30, at age 31-32 he would still have a pretty healthy percentage likelihood of approaching that. Florimon doesn't have that, and Santana doesn't really have that, especially not for the next couple seasons.

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