Minnesota Twins News & Rumors Forum
Page 2 of 3 FirstFirst 123 LastLast
Results 21 to 40 of 58

Thread: Who will lead the team in home runs this year?

  1. #21
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
    Posts
    2,271
    Like
    241
    Liked 461 Times in 290 Posts
    Blog Entries
    1
    I'll say Plouffe with 26 and Arcia with 24.

    Kubel: 20
    Mauer: 18
    Sano 16
    willingham: 14(traded)
    Dozier: 13
    Hicks: 12
    Pinto 10
    Florimon: 10
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

  2. These 2 users like cmathewson's post and want to buy him/her a steak dinner:

    johnnydakota (02-23-2014), KirbyHawk75 (02-22-2014)

  3. #22
    If Plouffe hits 20 or more home runs we could possibly get a decent prospect for him?

  4. #23
    Senior Member Triple-A
    Posts
    204
    Like
    106
    Liked 22 Times in 15 Posts
    Blog Entries
    1
    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    Arcia hit 24 HRs last season as a 22 year old between the majors and AAA. The season before he hit 17 between Fort Myers and New Britain.
    Plouffe's ceiling seems to be around 30, Kubel's ceiling was 30, Willingham is not getting any younger, so unless Sano is up in the majors to stay, I'd have to say Arcia (later) with around 35.
    If they hit this many HRs the Twins will win 81 at least.

  5. #24
    Please ban me! All-Star stringer bell's Avatar
    Posts
    3,578
    Like
    199
    Liked 534 Times in 347 Posts
    Blog Entries
    32
    Quote Originally Posted by ChiTownTwinsFan View Post
    This is a thread about who people think will hit the most home runs this year. Let's please stay on topic. If you wish to have a different discussion, please start another thread on that topic. thanks.
    My bad. I should have probably put that in the Mauer/Puckett thread.

  6. #25
    Senior Member Triple-A DocBauer's Avatar
    Posts
    454
    Like
    215
    Liked 173 Times in 98 Posts
    Blog Entries
    10
    Quote Originally Posted by johnnydakota View Post
    with his back to the wall and recovered from his concussion and wrist aliment , my dark horse is Plouffe, at 26HRs, 14 as a third basemen and the other 12 as a leftfielder and DH once Ham is traded and Sano takes over 3rd
    I like this! And I really can't disagree with it in any way other than to argue a bit with the numbers per position appearance. He could play a bit more 3B, mix in some 1B, etc, but that's silly nit picking.

    Healthy, a couple full seasons under his belt, I think Plouffe just might be in that 24-26 range. I fell Arcia will run neck to neck with him, though he might be a bit more streaky in his production.

    Willingham, if healthy, could, of course be right there, but if he's hitting that well, I still believe he's traded. That takes him out of the equation. Though I repeat if he accepts the DH role with Molitor's help, experience and advice, I'm not opposed to keeping him if there isn't a decent value for him.

    Kubes is a dark horse who could be a runner. But it depends not only what he has left in the tank, but how the roster and opportunity shakes out.

    Mauer is not going to challenge. But fully healthy, not so beat up a 1B now, 500 plus AB's, 40 Dbls and 15 HR's are very possible, with a high of 18. Just not sure his stroke allows for 20.

  7. This user likes DocBauer's post and wants to buy him/her a steak dinner:

    johnnydakota (02-23-2014)

  8. #26
    Senior Member All-Star JB_Iowa's Avatar
    Posts
    3,323
    Like
    1,303
    Liked 1,281 Times in 741 Posts
    I haven't got a clue .... but I would be very happy to have:


    2 players @25 or above
    +
    1 player @20 or above
    +
    1 player @17 or above
    +
    1 player @15 or above

    That would be at least 102 homers by the top 5 power hitters on the team -- a pretty substantial increase over the 77 that the top 5 hit last year.

    Is it likely? Probably not.

    Is it possible? With some help from the gods of health and some warm summer days, I think so.
    Last edited by JB_Iowa; 02-22-2014 at 07:42 PM.

  9. #27
    Senior Member Double-A scottz's Avatar
    Posts
    129
    Like
    28
    Liked 26 Times in 16 Posts
    I'll go with the kid that has the best walk-up music. And that, my friends, is Mr. Oswaldo Arcia. (2013 HRs = 24 in 479 ABs between Rochester and the big club...as a 22 year old!)

  10. These 2 users like scottz's post and want to buy him/her a steak dinner:

    bteichr (02-24-2014), johnnydakota (02-23-2014)

  11. #28
    Junior Member Rookie
    Posts
    8
    Like
    2
    Liked 1 Time in 1 Post
    Blog Entries
    1
    Arcia 25-30
    Sano will give him a run for his money if he makes the opening day roster

  12. #29
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
    Posts
    4,829
    Like
    176
    Liked 663 Times in 374 Posts
    Arcia with 22. We aren't going to trot much this year.

  13. #30
    Senior Member Triple-A DocBauer's Avatar
    Posts
    454
    Like
    215
    Liked 173 Times in 98 Posts
    Blog Entries
    10
    Quote Originally Posted by JB_Iowa View Post
    I haven't got a clue .... but I would be very happy to have:


    2 players @25 or above
    +
    1 player @20 or above
    +
    1 player @17 or above
    +
    1 player @15 or above

    That would be at least 102 homers by the top 5 power hitters on the team -- a pretty substantial increase over the 77 that the top 5 hit last year.

    Is it likely? Probably not.

    Is it possible? With some help from the gods of health and some warm summer days, I think so.
    I'll see your proposal and offer a counter one.

    Arcia and Plouffe as your mid 20's-ish. But your other 20 HR producer could be tough. Too many variables. What does Kubes have left and is there going to be real AB's for him, when might Sano be ready, does Willingham rebound, and if he does, does he stay?

    But how about I take your 20HR guy away, and offer up 4 players instead of 2 who might give you that 15-17ish HR mark? Mauer, Dozier, Pinto and possibly Hicks over 500 AB's could all be in that range.

    (Sano is the gravy and icing on top all in one potential package)

  14. #31
    Arcia, Willingham, and Plouffe all tie at 31

  15. #32
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
    Posts
    4,829
    Like
    176
    Liked 663 Times in 374 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Nate Haseman View Post
    Arcia, Willingham, and Plouffe all tie at 31
    10 players total in the AL hit 30 homeruns last year. I'm going to suggest having 3 from this Twins team do that is unlikely. To put it kindly.

  16. #33
    Senior Member All-Star JB_Iowa's Avatar
    Posts
    3,323
    Like
    1,303
    Liked 1,281 Times in 741 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by DocBauer View Post
    I'll see your proposal and offer a counter one.

    Arcia and Plouffe as your mid 20's-ish. But your other 20 HR producer could be tough. Too many variables. What does Kubes have left and is there going to be real AB's for him, when might Sano be ready, does Willingham rebound, and if he does, does he stay?

    But how about I take your 20HR guy away, and offer up 4 players instead of 2 who might give you that 15-17ish HR mark? Mauer, Dozier, Pinto and possibly Hicks over 500 AB's could all be in that range.

    (Sano is the gravy and icing on top all in one potential package)
    I'm not sure exactly where they would come from. Plouffe and Arcia are the most obvious possibilities for 25. Kubel is a dark horse if he could get back to his 2010 form and Willingham is a possibility -- but there's always the potential of trades if some hitters actually get hot in the first half.

    I'd say that the 20 HR guy may be Dozier with just a slight improvement from 2013.

    And that the 15-17 HR guys could be Mauer, Pinto, Hicks or the 1st half of Willingham or Kubes.

    Like I said, it's a bit of a stretch.

    I took a look at the Twins for the last four years:

    Top 5 HR Top 5 RBI Team HR Team RBI Top 5/%HR Top5/%RBI RUNS
    2010 99 400 142 749 69.70% 53.40% 781
    2011 67 271 103 572 65% 47.4% 619
    2012 106 402 131 667 80.90% 60.30% 701
    2013 77 295 151 590 60% 25.60% 614


    (Top 5 means the total of the top 5 home run hitters -- disregarding ties; then the RBIs produced by those hitters, the total team home runs, total team RBIs, the % of team HR hit by the "top 5", the % of team RBIs hit by the "top 5" and the total run production of the team.)

    First, I was flabbergasted to realize that out of those 4 years, the team actually the most HR's in 2013 yet total run production was the lowest in that year.

    Second, it looks to me like there is a slight correlation between scoring runs and having a strong core of about 5 guys hitting home runs and getting most of the RBI's. The two years (2010 and 2012) where the top 5 HR producers produced a higher percentage of RBI were also the 2 years with the highest run totals. (The difference may not be statistically significant since 2010 isn't that much higher than 2012 but obviously something not very good was going on in 2013.)

    So I'm going to "hope" that some of these players can come through and hit the higher totals -- it looks like everybody needs to be doing their job. Some table setters/high OBP guys and some who can just hit them in.

    Not very scientific but it does kind of show how dysfunctional last year was.

    Note: I took the figures from ESPN's sortable stats:
    http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/stats/ba...innesota-twins

    And I very well could have could have looked at them wrong and run the wrong totals and percentages -- i already caught a big mistake once. If I did that, I apologize in advance for wasting everybody's time.

  17. #34
    Senior Member Double-A
    Posts
    107
    Like
    50
    Liked 14 Times in 11 Posts
    Arcia - 18
    Willingham - 14
    Dozier - 12
    Florimon - 9
    Plouffe - 9
    Mauer - 7

    Twins - Fewest HRs in the majors by 12-15

  18. #35
    Senior Member Double-A
    Posts
    138
    Like
    51
    Liked 14 Times in 10 Posts
    Arcia 27
    Plouffe 18
    Dozier, Hammer (traded late June/early July), Mauer, Sano (up after the Hammer trade) all around the 15 mark.
    Hicks 10-12
    Not optimistic about Kubel

  19. #36
    Senior Member Triple-A h2oface's Avatar
    Posts
    370
    Like
    72
    Liked 42 Times in 30 Posts
    Blog Entries
    4
    Joe Mauer completes a metamorphosis, and hits 36 home runs!

  20. These 2 users like h2oface's post and want to buy him/her a steak dinner:

    ChiTownTwinsFan (02-23-2014), Sconnie (02-23-2014)

  21. #37
    Twins Moderator All-Star ChiTownTwinsFan's Avatar
    Posts
    4,819
    Twitter
    @Sheradoodles
    Like
    1,419
    Liked 1,929 Times in 1,131 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by h2oface View Post
    Joe Mauer completes a metamorphosis, and hits 36 home runs!
    This is what I like about Spring ... so many possibilities! Probabilities are another issue ... but I like these possibilities!

  22. This user likes ChiTownTwinsFan's post and wants to buy him/her a steak dinner:

    JB_Iowa (02-23-2014)

  23. #38
    Senior Member All-Star Sconnie's Avatar
    Posts
    1,097
    Like
    614
    Liked 397 Times in 262 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    If Willingham in the first half of the season is on pace to lead the team, he'll be traded. If he isn't, no one will want him.

    My my prediction is counting his homers for the Twins and their trade partner I say Hammer hits 32, and Arcia leads homers in a Twins uniform hitting 29 with Plouffe right behind him.

  24. #39
    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
    Posts
    6,508
    Twitter
    @sethtweets
    Like
    68
    Liked 377 Times in 199 Posts
    Blog Entries
    515
    Fun question... I'll say:

    Willingham 28
    Arcia 27
    Plouffe 25
    Kubel 18
    Dozier 17

  25. #40
    I just have a feeling that with a fresh set of legs and (hopefully) many more games played that Mauersie will lead the team in HR's and well over half will be opposite field. I think it will be close, but I figure that he's the most consistent hitter hat this point, with Hammer 2nd. I'd like to think Plouffe, but I still think he's still on a short leash with his play at 3rd--can't hit 'em if your not playing. Kubes if/when he plays will be short on ABs and will be fed a steady diet of outside pitches that he can't catch up to anymore. Might see Arcia get close, but we'll see how he adapts to the pitchers adapting to him this year; I feel his SO rate will climb. Not coming down on anyone, just feel like I'm playing the odds.

Page 2 of 3 FirstFirst 123 LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
©2014 TwinsCentric, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
Interested in advertising with Twins Daily? Click here.