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Thread: Who will lead the team in home runs this year?

  1. #41
    Senior Member Triple-A Don't Feed the Greed Guy's Avatar
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    Not that he will lead the club, but Aaron Hicks hit 8 home runs in 281 at bats last year... Baseball Reference projects that to 16 homers over a 162 game season.

    I'm going to go with Mauer. He will match 2009 with 28 homers. "If only the baby Jesus would stop growing and put on some man muscle..." Oh, yeah. He's 30 years old now.

  2. #42
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Original_JB View Post
    I just have a feeling that with a fresh set of legs and (hopefully) many more games played that Mauersie will lead the team in HR's and well over half will be opposite field. I think it will be close, but I figure that he's the most consistent hitter hat this point, with Hammer 2nd. I'd like to think Plouffe, but I still think he's still on a short leash with his play at 3rd--can't hit 'em if your not playing. Kubes if/when he plays will be short on ABs and will be fed a steady diet of outside pitches that he can't catch up to anymore. Might see Arcia get close, but we'll see how he adapts to the pitchers adapting to him this year; I feel his SO rate will climb. Not coming down on anyone, just feel like I'm playing the odds.
    With fresh hands and fresh legs, I think Mauer will hit more than usual. Perhaps 20. But it is just so hard to hit homers in Target Field the opposite way, like he did for something like 19 of his homer the year he hit 29, that he will struggle to hit homers at home.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

  3. #43
    I was inclined to go with Arcia but after a little analysis on it..

    I'm going to go with Brian Dozier. He's more of an everyday player than Arcia and will probably play more games/won't be as injured as often. Dozier got stronger as the season progressed last year, indicating he is strong enough to play a full season at a high level.

    There is no reason a healthy Arcia shouldn't be our best home run hitter this year, but I just get the feeling he may be a little careless with his body and spend a lot of time rehabbing.

    I'm not expecting anything amazing out of any Twins players in the HR department until Sano, so I'm going with:

    Dozier: 21
    Arcia: 18
    Willingham: 16
    Mauer, default disappointment: 13

  4. #44
    Senior Member Double-A
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    I'd have to say Arcia (later) with around 35.
    That would be sweet if Arcia could hit 35 but don't think it will happen, the minute he goes into a slump Gardy will give him some pine time, not sure that Arcia has the psych to handle that, plus all the other competiors for playing time at DH and corner outfield will cut down on his at bats.

    My vote is Plouffe at 28 HR's. Willingham will hit more but some of them will be with another team.

  5. #45
    Senior Member Triple-A
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    No doubt in my mind that Gardy will bench Arcia and other youngsters as soon as they hit a little rough patch which in my mind is counter productive with young ball players. Let them play through their tough stretches just as is done with veterans. The more at-bats the better I would think.

  6. #46
    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    This is somewhat tough, there's reason to believe that a number of guys could break out... then there is what we've seen the last few years... optimistic:

    Arcia, Willigham 25
    Dozier, Plouffe, Parmelee, Kubel 20
    Mauer 15

    Pessimistic:

    Arcia 20
    Dozier, Plouffe 15
    Parmelee, Mauer10
    Kubel, Willingham 10, but traded at deadline
    Sano hits 45 in AAA while not being called up.

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    johnnydakota (02-24-2014)

  8. #47
    Senior Member Triple-A
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    Hicks and Sano tie at 26

  9. #48
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer
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    I don't think Sano can hit 45 in AAA and not be called up.

    My guess is Arcia around 33.

    Dark Horse is Mauer.

  10. #49
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    Hammer

  11. #50
    Twins Moderator MVP Riverbrian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willihammer View Post
    Hammer
    It better be Hammer!!!
    A Skeleton walks into a bar and says... "Give me a beer... And a mop".

  12. #51
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    Man, would I love to have Plouffe hit 25+ homers. I know it's not going to be a playoff year (ok, I'm 97% sure it's not going to be a playoff year), but I want some good things to cheer about. Trevor hitting bombs, and earning playing time somewhere, would be one of those things. Arcia hitting 20 without striking out 200 times would be another.

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    johnnydakota (02-24-2014)

  14. #52
    Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
    With fresh hands and fresh legs, I think Mauer will hit more than usual. Perhaps 20. But it is just so hard to hit homers in Target Field the opposite way, like he did for something like 19 of his homer the year he hit 29, that he will struggle to hit homers at home.
    After watching he and Justin bomb them out during BP at will--when he was catching full time, (yeah, I know it's BP), I don't think Target Field is going to hold him back too much. At 6'5" and 230+ he made Morneausie look small (though on paper they are only 1" and 10lbs apart). So, I'm thinking Jason Werth-like with a better eye.

  15. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by KirbyHawk75 View Post
    If Plouffe hits 20 or more home runs we could possibly get a decent prospect for him?
    the problem is that Plouffe will hit 20+ HR's the ugly way. He will be streaky, play poor defense and likely will hit .240 with a .300 OBP. The hope is that you could get a top 200 prospect for that but probably nothing special.

    I will go with Plouffe also thinking that Willy will spend time on the DL and Arcia slumps enough to play a month or two in Rochester.

  16. #54
    Senior Member All-Star Hosken Bombo Disco's Avatar
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    Can I change my pick?

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    snepp (05-16-2014)

  18. #55
    Champucket must have a crystal ball.

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    Kevin (05-17-2014)

  20. #56
    Dozier-28
    Mauer-21
    J-will-18
    KOOBS-16

  21. #57
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by milldaddy35 View Post
    Dozier-28
    Mauer-21
    J-will-18
    KOOBS-16
    Dozier is your only realistic prediction here. The other three are going to have trouble getting to double digits because of various reasons.

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    jm3319 (05-17-2014)

  23. #58
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    Brian Dozier: 27
    Josmil Pinto: 23

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