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Thread: Matt Capps, Bill Smith and the trade that ruined Twins baseball

  1. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by birdwatcher View Post
    Again, what's your source? I call bull.
    At the time, I remember reading it in a couple places that he presented Pohlad with his blueprint for 2012 and he didn't like it and Smith was fired. Common sense tells you the part Pohlad didn't like was the payroll increase. As far as my source, I doubt I could find it even if I wanted to waste the time searching for it. My source is my memory. I don't make things up.

  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by birdwatcher View Post
    I agree Chief. But my reaction, considering the fact that it is a big business, is "Well, duh."
    Also, the indisputable atrophy of the farm system that people like to point to as a sign of Ryan's incompetence was caused in part by factors out of a GM's control. The Twins farm system would have suffered under the watch of any GM in the business given the long string of poor draft positions, among other factors. Ryan is only partially culpable.

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  4. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marta Shearing View Post
    At the time, I remember reading it in a couple places that he presented Pohlad with his blueprint for 2012 and he didn't like it and Smith was fired. Common sense tells you the part Pohlad didn't like was the payroll increase. As far as my source, I doubt I could find it even if I wanted to waste the time searching for it. My source is my memory. I don't make things up.
    I don't believe the story. I think it's total bunk. And common senses does NOT tell me that.

  5. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by clutterheart View Post
    Not to pile on, but Hardy, Harris and $500K were TRADED to Baltimore for Brett Jacobson and Jim Hoey....

    But in truth, Smith was not fired for those trades. The story goes he presented his budget/plans to Ownership and they canned them. Its likely he was going to sign everyone, extend the payroll and spend his way out of his bad trades and the Pohlads wanted to finance some movies with the proceeds of Target Field.
    Wow. That is some high-grade BS. The money that Bill spends on movies is his own, what he received as part of his inheritance. It's completely separate. Jim is an investor. But, again, that is from his personal fortune, not from the Twins corporation.

    I do agree that Smith wanted to spend his way out of the mess he created. But that wasn't all he wanted to do. He wanted to trade signature prospects for more expensive veteran help. The Ramos trade was his model for how he wanted to rebuild the roster. He thought that was a great move. He probably still does. They nixed it because it was expedient, not because it was expensive. They asked Ryan about his plan and you can guess what his answer was. So they canned the plan and they canned Smith. It just wasn't a sustainable model that would support winning. And the early returns from 2011 were visible proof of that.

    In the long term, the Ryan plan will actually be more expensive than the Smith plan. There is a thread on this site about how to extend Buxton to make his payroll hit won't bankrupt the franchise. Winning the right way is expensive. It might be cheap now. But in three years, the team will be looking at ways to make budget. In five years, it will need to start trading the next Denard Span (Aaron Hicks) to make room for having Meyer, Sano and Buxton on the same team.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

  6. #25
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by birdwatcher View Post
    Also, the indisputable atrophy of the farm system that people like to point to as a sign of Ryan's incompetence was caused in part by factors out of a GM's control. The Twins farm system would have suffered under the watch of any GM in the business given the long string of poor draft positions, among other factors. Ryan is only partially culpable.
    I call bull on that one. Look at the draft picks in the 00s under Ryan. Or the lack of trades of veterans for prospects. Ryan's draft record has been historically bad overall since the 90s.

  7. #26
    I'm sorry, when has Wilson Ramos been a reliable, healthy Catcher option? Not to say he cant be at times, but Carlos Gomez and/or JJ Hardy have both been far more reliable than him to date, and those are both position players where the Twins have lacked depth for at least one of the last few seasons

  8. #27
    Senior Member All-Star Boom Boom's Avatar
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    The Ramos, Hardy, and Garza/Bartlett trades were all awful and I have a hard time deciding which one is the worst.

    When the Twins brought back Bartlett this offseason, the Strib wrote about how Gardenhire didn't want Bartlett included in the trade with the Rays. I wonder if he was bothered that they traded Garza.

  9. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by birdwatcher View Post
    Also, the indisputable atrophy of the farm system that people like to point to as a sign of Ryan's incompetence was caused in part by factors out of a GM's control. The Twins farm system would have suffered under the watch of any GM in the business given the long string of poor draft positions, among other factors. Ryan is only partially culpable.
    The Cardinals and Red Sox disagree with this conclusion. And, if you refuse to sign FAs, and refuse to trade prospects for players, if that is your strategy, then you have to be BETTER than other teams at drafting and devloping. Otherwise it is a bad strategy. It was Ryan's team's job to get good players here. they failed. No idea why people want to keep making excuses for those down years.
    Lighten up Francis....

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  11. #29
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    "ugh" right way.....there is no one right way.
    Lighten up Francis....

  12. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    I call bull on that one. Look at the draft picks in the 00s under Ryan. Or the lack of trades of veterans for prospects. Ryan's draft record has been historically bad overall since the 90s.
    Help me out. Which part of this do you want to call bull on?

    That they didn't suffer from having poor draft positions year after year?
    Do you think there's no correlation between having top 10 draft selections and the strength of a farm system? Do you dispute the studies that show the incredible achievement gao of prospects selected #1-10 versus those selected #11-20 and 21-30? That Ryan is only partially to blame for the fairly poor results? (I'll call bull on the notion that, compared to other teams in similar situations that the results are as abysmal as you tend to describe them.) Do you put the entire blame on Ryan for all the injuries as well? Blame him, yes, but at least show a hint of fair play in the process.

  13. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    The Cardinals and Red Sox disagree with this conclusion. And, if you refuse to sign FAs, and refuse to trade prospects for players, if that is your strategy, then you have to be BETTER than other teams at drafting and devloping. Otherwise it is a bad strategy. It was Ryan's team's job to get good players here. they failed. No idea why people want to keep making excuses for those down years.
    No they don't.

  14. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    The Cardinals and Red Sox disagree with this conclusion. And, if you refuse to sign FAs, and refuse to trade prospects for players, if that is your strategy, then you have to be BETTER than other teams at drafting and devloping. Otherwise it is a bad strategy. It was Ryan's team's job to get good players here. they failed. No idea why people want to keep making excuses for those down years.
    No excuses here. I'm just encouraging people to attribute the causes fairly instead of piling on indiscriminately.

  15. #33
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    The problems for this team are vast, and everyone has played a part. But three bad trades are not THE problem, imo. They certainly contribute, though. Agreed. I mostly blame the scouts, as it is their job to assess the players.
    Lighten up Francis....

  16. #34
    Twins Moderator MVP USAFChief's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by birdwatcher View Post
    No they don't.
    While I agree Ryan is not the only source of the minor league problems, he was the guy in charge and therefore gets the ultimate blame.And I think Boston and St Louis are excellent examples to at least call into question whether draft position is any kind of viable excuse for lack of talent in any team's minor league system.
    Every post is not every other post. - a wise man

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  18. #35
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    Go out to the beyond the boxscore site. They've compiled the top 160 prospect rankings. They've then assigned values that attempt to reflect the quality of each system.

    Is it any wonder that most of the teams at the top of the list have benefitted from having primo draft positions for years? Most much more favorable than that of the Twins? Houston, Pittsburgh, KC, the Mets... No, the Cards are middle-of-the pack, and so are the Rays, who are viewed by many of you as possessing genius compared to the lowly Twins, right? See the pattern? With few exceptions, you can observe a correlation between high draft picks and systems with high rankings. And some of the exceptions, like Boston, may be ranked highly as much for their success spending internationally as with drafting prowess.


    All I'm saying is that it's absurdly simplistic and patently unfair and untrue to assign vitually 100% of the blame for a mediocre system (and it was NEVER ranked as poorly as Chicago and Detroit are now) on a GM. And it's entirely hypocritical of some of you to bash Ryan for the bad years and at best begrudgingly credit him now that the system is robust. He gets partial credit now. He should get partial blame for the past.

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  20. #36
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    I'd guess teh Cards system would be better if Wacha was still eligible.....and, middle of the road? The Twins system was much, much worse than that when Smith took over.
    Lighten up Francis....

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  22. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by USAFChief View Post
    While I agree Ryan is not the only source of the minor league problems, he was the guy in charge and therefore gets the ultimate blame.And I think Boston and St Louis are excellent examples to at least call into question whether draft position is any kind of viable excuse for lack of talent in any team's minor league system.
    The Rays were the myth of the past. The Cards were last year's myth. Boston is today's myth. Ther really isn't any evidence of a sustainable track record of success that can be reasonably linked to better scouting and better drafting by most teams and inferior scouting and drafting for most others.

    I would suggest that Boston and the Cards may be a bit better than most, including the Twins. I'll also suggest that the Brewers, Tigers, and some others are a bit worse. But I reject the notion that gets constantly promoted here that the Twins have inferior capabilities. And I reject the "well, Ryan was in charge" thing. If you're driving along and someone runs a light, causing you to t-bone them, I'm sorry, man, you were driving. You're a menace on the road. There are lots of contributing factors and the driver bears only some of the blame, right?

  23. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    I'd guess teh Cards system would be better if Wacha was still eligible.....and, middle of the road? The Twins system was much, much worse than that when Smith took over.

    This is a false statement.

  24. #39
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    Then where are any of the arb eligible players on this roster? Where is the starting OF/DH? or 3B, or C, or SS or starting pitching? EVERY starter and most relievers were not drafted by the Twins........not sure how we can conclude anything other than they failed at executing their strategy. But we've been over this. We agree many are accountable. We disagree on whether or not the Twins drafted well or not, given their "constraints".
    Lighten up Francis....

  25. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
    My list of the five worst trades the Twins have ever made:

    1. Two cornerstone roster pieces for Delmon Young. Net WAR - infinity.
    2. Kaat to the White Sox for $500 cash. (He proceeded to win 20 games two consecutive years).
    3. Ramos for Capps (you make the case well)
    4. Hardy for crap
    5. Rod Carew for Ken Landreaux and very little else
    Greg Nettles for Luis Tiant. Tiant is released after 1season and the Red Sox eventually pick him up.
    Last edited by thetank; 02-26-2014 at 11:53 AM.

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