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Thread: Matt Capps, Bill Smith and the trade that ruined Twins baseball

  1. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    I'd guess teh Cards system would be better if Wacha was still eligible.....and, middle of the road? The Twins system was much, much worse than that when Smith took over.
    The worst ranking I can recall from back the was 17th., but in any case the consensus was very clearly middle-of-the-road, not abhorrent as so often portrayed.

    And exactly which system would NOT look better had no prospect graduated?

  2. #42
    Quote Originally Posted by birdwatcher View Post
    I don't believe the story. I think it's total bunk. And common senses does NOT tell me that.
    Because raising payroll is never an issue with the Twins?

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  4. #43
    Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
    Wow. That is some high-grade BS. The money that Bill spends on movies is his own, what he received as part of his inheritance. It's completely separate. Jim is an investor. But, again, that is from his personal fortune, not from the Twins corporation.

    I do agree that Smith wanted to spend his way out of the mess he created. But that wasn't all he wanted to do. He wanted to trade signature prospects for more expensive veteran help. The Ramos trade was his model for how he wanted to rebuild the roster. He thought that was a great move. He probably still does. They nixed it because it was expedient, not because it was expensive. They asked Ryan about his plan and you can guess what his answer was. So they canned the plan and they canned Smith. It just wasn't a sustainable model that would support winning. And the early returns from 2011 were visible proof of that.

    In the long term, the Ryan plan will actually be more expensive than the Smith plan. There is a thread on this site about how to extend Buxton to make his payroll hit won't bankrupt the franchise. Winning the right way is expensive. It might be cheap now. But in three years, the team will be looking at ways to make budget. In five years, it will need to start trading the next Denard Span (Aaron Hicks) to make room for having Meyer, Sano and Buxton on the same team.
    I don't believe for a second Smith's plan included trading prospects. He got fired because he wanted to raise payroll.

    When this young group gets to contender status and are serious World Series contenders, and that 3 year window is wide open, do you think pohlad will be willing to spend the money to add the final piece to put them over the top?
    Last edited by Marta Shearing; 02-26-2014 at 11:43 AM.

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  6. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    Then where are any of the arb eligible players on this roster? Where is the starting OF/DH? or 3B, or C, or SS or starting pitching? EVERY starter and most relievers were not drafted by the Twins........not sure how we can conclude anything other than they failed at executing their strategy. But we've been over this. We agree many are accountable. We disagree on whether or not the Twins drafted well or not, given their "constraints".

    I'm sorry, mike, but again, great job of selecting the criteria by which you judge their competence. A middle-of-the-road farm system at the low point of the cycle is a stronger indicator. Especially when one regards (not excuse-making!) other factors. For example, lacking surplus talent through which to replenish the system a la Span and Revere, being in the very early stages of building the organizational capacity to begin competing for international talent, injuries to the likes of Rainville, Fox, Waldrop.

    So yes we disagree about what factual basis one might fairly assess why the past failures resulted, and we certainly disagree about the level of prowess that was in place then and is in place now. Remember what your view of the farm system was just two short years ago, mike.

  7. #45
    Quote Originally Posted by birdwatcher View Post
    Also, the indisputable atrophy of the farm system that people like to point to as a sign of Ryan's incompetence was caused in part by factors out of a GM's control. The Twins farm system would have suffered under the watch of any GM in the business given the long string of poor draft positions, among other factors. Ryan is only partially culpable.
    Is it too late to get this statement entered in Common's tournament? I'm just playing with you. :-)

  8. #46
    Senior Member All-Star JB_Iowa's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
    In the long term, the Ryan plan will actually be more expensive than the Smith plan. There is a thread on this site about how to extend Buxton to make his payroll hit won't bankrupt the franchise. Winning the right way is expensive. It might be cheap now. But in three years, the team will be looking at ways to make budget. In five years, it will need to start trading the next Denard Span (Aaron Hicks) to make room for having Meyer, Sano and Buxton on the same team.
    Your point is well stated. But the jury is still out on whether the team will actually follow through on the Ryan plan in the long run.

    For that, we can only wait and watch.

  9. #47
    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    MODERATOR NOTE, let's tone down the personal comments. There's a interesting discussion to be had, but right now it's being had by insults. If that doesn't change, I'm closing this thread.

    Edit: I cannot type
    Last edited by diehardtwinsfan; 02-26-2014 at 12:12 PM.

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  11. #48
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    The farm system was terrible two years ago. Now it is not. I would never say lower picks are as easy to hit on as high picks, we have also agreed on that in the past.
    Lighten up Francis....

  12. #49
    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    To get this back on topic, I've never seen a link personally where the exact reason for Smith's firing was supplied. I wasn't a fan of Smith, particularly when he felt he had to make a trade. I'll simply ask politely, does someone have a link to this spending theory? I never saw it reported in the papers in anything other than irreconcilable differences... the budget has always been the speculated reason.

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  14. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by threee11 View Post
    I'm sorry, when has Wilson Ramos been a reliable, healthy Catcher option? Not to say he cant be at times, but Carlos Gomez and/or JJ Hardy have both been far more reliable than him to date, and those are both position players where the Twins have lacked depth for at least one of the last few seasons
    I am bumping this comment -- Ramos has been on the field less than Mauer.

  15. #51
    Senior Member All-Star JB_Iowa's Avatar
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    I don't believe that they have ever stated the exact reasons:
    http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/72...y-ryan-interim

    In order to discern what "philosophical differences" might mean, you have to look at what Smith was doing -- that would then imply that they wanted a different direction.

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  17. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marta Shearing View Post
    Because raising payroll is never an issue with the Twins?
    No, because the story's so far-fetched and outside of any universe of plausibility about how business gets conducted and budgets get discussed, Marta.

  18. #53
    Senior Member All-Star JB_Iowa's Avatar
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    To follow up, Gleeman stated that we'd see what those "philosophical differences" would be but he also noted that Ryan immediately revealed that the payroll would drop from about $115 m to $100 m.

    http://aarongleeman.com/2011/11/08/t...an-interim-gm/


    Given the immediate juxtaposition of the payroll drop, it is kind of hard to ignore that as, perhaps, one of the philosophical differences.
    Last edited by JB_Iowa; 02-26-2014 at 12:18 PM. Reason: changed philosophical decisions to philosophical differences

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  20. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    The farm system was terrible two years ago. Now it is not. I would never say lower picks are as easy to hit on as high picks, we have also agreed on that in the past.
    Again, by the more universally accepted standards, in particular farm system rankings by a dozen or so credible publications, the farm system was mediocre, mike, not terrible.

    But I accept the your standards are much much harsher.

  21. #55
    Senior Member All-Star Boom Boom's Avatar
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    So we're arguing over what % of the Twins three-season dumpster fire is attributable to Ryan?

    I'm going to say somewhere between 1 and 99%.

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  23. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    The farm system was terrible two years ago. Now it is not. I would never say lower picks are as easy to hit on as high picks, we have also agreed on that in the past.
    Just to clarify, not only is the farm system NOT terrible now, it's superb. Say it, mike. Superb.


    Was it BP's analysis that showed a 70%+ success rate for picks #1-10, a less than 50% rate for picks #11-20, and about 25% success for picks #21-30?Go a decade with making selections with a 25% chance versus a decade with selections given a 70% chance. So, never saying that lower picks are as easy to hit on as high picks? Can you see how that rings a bit hollow? I know it's unintentional, mike, but it obscures the reality of the situation.

  24. #57
    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    This is a fun thread... clearly people must enjoy this, huh?

    And... there is no proof or backing or reasons that have been given for why Bill Smith was fired. Anything we 'hear' is just rumor and guessing.

    But, it sure is fun to drum up all this stuff once in awhile, huh?

    Go Twins!

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  26. #58
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    The system right now is electrifyingly exciting. I agree on that 100%. That's not anything anyone disagrees with, as far as I can tell. Superb, even.....

    I think our issue is two fold, but I could be wrong:

    1. Since they, in the past and so far the present, are all about building form within and trading the present for the future, they NEED to be better than other teams for their strategy to be successful, or they need to change their strategy. since we have seen the payroll drop (as a percent of revenue, with the new $25MM this year), it isn't clear that strategy has changed it.

    2. Rankings, once players graduate, don't interest me. What interests me is what did happen, not what was predicted to happen (if it is the past). What happened, imo, is that other than Span and Revere and maybe Dozier, nothing has come up from the minors worth anything lately. Every single starting pitcher this year will have been NOT drafted by the Twins. There is only one above A ball that looks like he'll be in the rotation in the next 2 years they drafted.

    We clearly, 100%, disagree on this part. That's ok. It doesn't bother me one bit that we disagree, actually. Nor am I trying to convince you, because neither of us appears likely to change our opinions. But I believe the best way to judge the farm system in the past is by who comes up and does well, not on the rankings in the past. And, given that the team is sorely lacking good, young, players (even counting the 2 they traded away), we disagree on whether or not the team and its scouts and gm and farm director should be more accountable for that failure. Again, it's all about their strategy. If it is to "build the right way" by drafting......then the strategy was badly executed, imo.
    Lighten up Francis....

  27. #59
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    you make your points well, mike, and while I quibble a bit with how you select your facts, I respect your opinion and credit you for your thoughtful presentation of them.

    But, I'll tell you, that was sweet. mike wants wins called the Twins farm system Superb, even

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  29. #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by Boom Boom View Post
    So we're arguing over what % of the Twins three-season dumpster fire is attributable to Ryan?

    I'm going to say somewhere between 1 and 99%.
    This. Everybody gets a little blame for this mess. Ryan for not continuing to build a better than average MiLB system through the mid 2000s, Smith for trading away the assets Ryan did draft or acquire (Bartlett, Garza, Ramos).

    How different is 2011-2013 if those three players are on the roster? Smith inherited a bad situation and proceeded to light the damned building on fire instead of improving the situation.

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