Minnesota Twins News & Rumors Forum
Page 2 of 2 FirstFirst 12
Results 21 to 29 of 29

Thread: Situation in the Ukraine

  1. #21
    Twins News Team All-Star PseudoSABR's Avatar
    Posts
    1,954
    Like
    257
    Liked 206 Times in 115 Posts
    Whether Ukraine has Russian sympathies before, the notion that part of their country has eben forcibly occupied certainly will make them gunshy at entering into a permanent diplomatic relationship with said invading country. The protests were, as reported, stemming from the refusal for eased diplomatic relations with the EU which would have brought many goods Ukrainians seek.

    Russia's supposed federation of whatever can't be held only by force; Belarus woudl be an obvious concern moving to the EU. Russia would lose it's entire Western border states to the EU which would be huge political blow to them.

    From what I've been reading, I just don't understand how Russia's actions has long term positive outcome for them. At best, they get Crimea, at best. At worst they lose all political and diplomatic influence West of their border.

  2. #22
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
    Posts
    4,822
    Like
    176
    Liked 662 Times in 374 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by PseudoSABR View Post
    The protests were, as reported, stemming from the refusal for eased diplomatic relations with the EU which would have brought many goods Ukrainians seek.
    The refusal came because of an ultimatum regarding a political adversary. Along with other pressures to accept. There is a strong sense among international experts that the West then sparked the protests as a way to pressure the Russian-leaning leader out of office. Ever since 2004 we've been working to get him out of office and get a pro-West person in. Basically to weaken Russia. (Which Russia is well aware of)

    What was Russia supposed to do? Let the West meddle with Ukraine's politics at their expense and sit on their hands? The West has been engaged in a covert war of politics with that nation for almost a decade now to put someone in charge that is pro-West. They've basically been begging to have their bluff called for the better part of a decade.

    I'm not sure what it will do long-term, but the truth is many of those countries rely on Russia for much of their economic foundation. Whether they like the military intervention or not, they know that. The positive for this for Russia is it may make the West think twice about meddling again.

  3. #23
    Twins News Team All-Star PseudoSABR's Avatar
    Posts
    1,954
    Like
    257
    Liked 206 Times in 115 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    What was Russia supposed to do? Let the West meddle with Ukraine's politics at their expense and sit on their hands? The West has been engaged in a covert war of politics with that nation for almost a decade now to put someone in charge that is pro-West. They've basically been begging to have their bluff called for the better part of a decade.
    Well, the first action probably shouldn't have been invade a sovereign nation; that you frame it as reasonable is totally ridiculous. I'm not sure what Russia should have done, but they probably put themselves in this position as much as the West influenced the upheaval.

    I just totally reject the terms of your argument by couching the West's hand as a bluff; the West will get what they want--in a more Westernized Ukraine, Crimea or not, ostensibly that's what the people of Ukraine want as well.

    In a way, Ukraine's populace was trying to call Russia's bluff, and well, Russia just pushed all in, and we'll see how it turns out. It's clear, that their actions don't sit well in Ukraine or even in Russia (what with some 70 percent disapproving of the occupation of Crimea).

    I'd like to see some of these experts that actually support your take, I just haven't seen it.

    While overly simplistic, this is nice recap from Time of why it doesn't bode well for Russia.

  4. #24
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
    Posts
    4,822
    Like
    176
    Liked 662 Times in 374 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by PseudoSABR View Post
    Well, the first action probably shouldn't have been invade a sovereign nation
    Well, that wasn't their first action. They also offered their own economic package and terms for Ukraine joining their group. They made this action because things were escalating thanks to what was likely an EU/USA backed revolt.

    All reports I've seen have said the Ukrainain people are not interested in breaking apart their state. It is a country with deep political divides but also has a lot of interest in staying with Russia as well. It would've been better off if both Russia and the EU stopped using Ukraine as the monkey in a game of monkey in the middle.

    But there are a number of things contradictory about your post:

    1) A bluff ceases to be a bluff when you back it up. Russia didn't have a bluff called, they had their resolve called out. And it appears it wasn't a bluff at all.

    2) Your own link speaks directly to what I've been saying - this was a message to it's neighbors. And they are hearing it loud and clear and it will have ramifications that are better for Russia in the short-term. It creates uneasy alliances to be sure, but it's naive to think fear isn't a powerful motivator.

    3) Russia is already isolated from the West, this whole scenario started because of the deep divides that exist.

    Listen, I don't like what Putin is doing, I don't agree with it as a modus operandi for a super power, and I don't like it as a long-term strategy. But I'm also not shoving my head in the sand and pretending this was some kind of unprovoked or hasty move with no reasoning behind it. You can call the Russians a lot of things for this, but stupid isn't one of them.

  5. #25
    Twins News Team All-Star PseudoSABR's Avatar
    Posts
    1,954
    Like
    257
    Liked 206 Times in 115 Posts
    Well, I don't think Russia invaded Crimea on a whim either. The question I thought we were addressing is whether it was reasonable and if it's good for the long term viability of Ukriane and Russia. As usual, we end up on the same page, though we take different circuitous routes to get there.

  6. #26
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
    Posts
    4,822
    Like
    176
    Liked 662 Times in 374 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by PseudoSABR View Post
    Well, I don't think Russia invaded Crimea on a whim either. The question I thought we were addressing is whether it was reasonable and if it's good for the long term viability of Ukriane and Russia. As usual, we end up on the same page, though we take different circuitous routes to get there.
    Yeah, methinks you were focused on ethics and I was focused on the practicalities of why.

  7. #27
    Twins Moderator All-Star twinsnorth49's Avatar
    Posts
    3,630
    Like
    923
    Liked 1,282 Times in 686 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by PseudoSABR View Post
    Whether Ukraine has Russian sympathies before, the notion that part of their country has eben forcibly occupied certainly will make them gunshy at entering into a permanent diplomatic relationship with said invading country. The protests were, as reported, stemming from the refusal for eased diplomatic relations with the EU which would have brought many goods Ukrainians seek.

    Russia's supposed federation of whatever can't be held only by force; Belarus woudl be an obvious concern moving to the EU. Russia would lose it's entire Western border states to the EU which would be huge political blow to them.

    From what I've been reading, I just don't understand how Russia's actions has long term positive outcome for them. At best, they get Crimea, at best. At worst they lose all political and diplomatic influence West of their border.
    With all due respect I think you underestimate the dependence countries like Belarus and Ukraine have on Russia. Belarus is not going to be joining the EU anytime soon, at least until they pay down the enormous debt they have with Russia, and find a new source of affordable energy. Ukraine is in much the same situation, they are far more dependent economically on Russia than many think. I'm guessing the average Ukrainian is going to opt for gas to heat their house over whatever goods they desire from the West. You don't think Putin knows that? He sure as hell does and it's one of his most powerful weapons. What does the West have to offer them?

    At best Putin maintains his political influence in Eastern Europe, Crimea is just his not so subtle reminder that it's his ball. At the end of the day he will ultimately dictate the direction of the new government and what decisions they will make in terms of their economic future. There is nothing the West can or will do about it, he knows it and whatever it is they threaten him with he cares very little about. Russians are used to hard times, economic sanctions from the likes of the US, Canada and the EU are of very little consequence to them
    Last edited by twinsnorth49; 03-14-2014 at 07:12 AM.

  8. #28
    Twins News Team All-Star PseudoSABR's Avatar
    Posts
    1,954
    Like
    257
    Liked 206 Times in 115 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by twinsnorth49 View Post
    I'm guessing the average Ukrainian is going to opt for gas to heat their house over whatever goods they desire from the West. You don't think Putin knows that? He sure as hell does and it's one of his most powerful weapons. What does the West have to offer them?
    That's just it. At certain point, a population is just going to face a winter without heat (or facing whatever supposed insurmountable odds) to rally around what ever rights and privileges are the going rate (developed) world wide. It's an eventuality. Perhaps you're right, the time isn't now, but with the recent protests, there's certainly an imminent threshold. Long term, it's difficult to imagine there isn't some other viable way for Ukrainians to heat their homes without capitulation-like Russian dependence. More, given the warm European winter, Russia's hostility seems like a bad play.

    Maybe there's something your reading, I'm not reading; if so, I'd appreciate a nudge in the right direction.
    Last edited by PseudoSABR; 03-14-2014 at 12:02 AM.

  9. #29
    Twins Moderator All-Star twinsnorth49's Avatar
    Posts
    3,630
    Like
    923
    Liked 1,282 Times in 686 Posts
    Possible Pseudo, hard to envision though ,but don't get me wrong I would love to see it. At the end of the day though it's all about oil and money, despite what the people want. The West is only going to prop up Ukraine financially for so long, unless the US in particular is willing to make a major investment in developing (or restoring more accurately) the country's own gas industry. I just don't see all the talk of alternative energy coming from the US being overly viable, from a cost perspective and a political one, Russia will certainly flex it's muscle again if that does occur.

    The biggest part of the problem as I see it is the rampant corruption that exists there, largely led by Russian Oligarchs. Since independence in 1991 the country has maintained such close ties to Russia it has resulted in heavy political influence by them within the country. The Kuchma government barely separated themselves from them allowing the oil barons to sew their seeds within the political infrastructure. The reality is this whole thing has really been going on since 2004 and the Orange revolution, a huge example of political corruption and the control the gas industry in Russia has over Ukraine, where was the West then? As long as the illusion of legitimacy remained, it wasn't their problem.

    Victor Yanukovych came to power as a result of the Orange Coalitions desire to take Ukraine more towards Europe and Russia's desire to stop it. Yanukovych was once a member of the Orange Coalition, wonder what happened there? I don't see much of a difference in what is happening now as opposed to back then, other than the US and the EU making a little more noise about it's displeasure, which over time I imagine will die down. Putin is just using most of this as a stall tactic in order to find another political alternative to the one the West has installed.

    As far as reading goes, there is plenty to read about the pro Russian sentiment in the East and South, which at the end of the day may create a secession movement within the country. Any European newspaper or magazine is full of great views on the subject.

Page 2 of 2 FirstFirst 12

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
©2014 TwinsCentric, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
Interested in advertising with Twins Daily? Click here.