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Thread: Heyman: The Twins made a 3-year offer to Ervin Santana

  1. #181
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    But you can't have your cake and eat it too. Corriea and Pelfrey are under contract. There is zero chance Pelfrey gets dealt until July at the absolute earliest and a very minimal chance Corriea does before the same point. They are on the roster, we can't pretend otherwise, and it's an important part of the equation. (Especially for a team that has consistently favored veterans over prospects regardless of talent)

    If you want to argue Santana >>>>> Correia/Pelfrey - you'll get no argument from most and certainly none from me. The decision to add someone like Santana does have to factor in their presence and the way the team is likely to treat them. This isn't a video game where you just cut or trade people willy-nilly and stash people wherever you want.

    It's better for this team to target a Santana-like player next year when they've gotten rid of one of these uninspiring "innings eaters". If you are hard pressed to spend money now - do it on offense because right now I'd be shocked if this team wasn't last in the AL by a country mile with this group
    We could trade KC right now if we wanted to. The Blue Jays and Orioles are looking for pitching. Other teams will have injuries before April 1st. A team like the Yankees or Dodgers would be okay with a 4.50 career ERA guy coming off 4.19 last year as their long reliever. He is only going to make $5M next year.

    Santana is a 15.7 WAR player over 9 seasons. KC is a 5 WAR player over 11. Seems like an additional $7M in payroll makes sense ($12M - $5M)

  2. #182
    Twins Moderator MVP USAFChief's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
    I've been around long enough to see inferior veterans block superior prospects a lot. Managers tend to prefer veterans because they're low maintenance.
    I dont think superior players actually get blocked very often, but if they do that's a manager problem, not a player problem. And even in that case, you're still better off having more players than positions than having more positions than players.
    Every post is not every other post. - a wise man

  3. #183
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    They could have just cut KC....they basically did that with Blackburn. Not saying I would expect that, but he should not have blocked bringing in a better player.

    We have no idea what they offered, or didn't. All we know is what he took, and that they PROBABLY, did not offer more.
    Lighten up Francis....

  4. #184
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    Quote Originally Posted by USAFChief View Post
    I dont think superior players actually get blocked very often, but if they do that's a manager problem, not a player problem. And even in that case, you're still better off having more players than positions than having more positions than players.
    I just e-mailed Seth that one of the TOP 2014 Stories should be on blocking. He responded in a language I don't understand.

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  6. #185
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    And tackling, howie, can't forget the defense......
    Lighten up Francis....

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    Senior Member All-Star Hosken Bombo Disco's Avatar
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    I love the blocking debate but you remember Doumit had 100+ starts last year..

  9. #187
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    We could trade KC right now if we wanted to.
    A) That sets aside any assurances we gave to him and B) Assumes those teams would want him. These are assumptions. As of now, if they had signed him, it would've pushed Gibson one deeper from a starting spot. That's just a fact and it should be part of the consideration.

    Subtracting players via trade is not a given and shouldn't be treated that way.

  10. #188
    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    We could trade KC right now if we wanted to. The Blue Jays and Orioles are looking for pitching. Other teams will have injuries before April 1st. A team like the Yankees or Dodgers would be okay with a 4.50 career ERA guy coming off 4.19 last year as their long reliever. He is only going to make $5M next year.

    Santana is a 15.7 WAR player over 9 seasons. KC is a 5 WAR player over 11. Seems like an additional $7M in payroll makes sense ($12M - $5M)
    The O's dont' have tons of money, but the Jays aren't exactly cash strapped... and yet they didn't sign Santana. Why would they give up something of value for KC?

    I think Levi is right here. Pelfrey won't go at the deadline and KC won't go until then.

  11. #189
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    Or, you could just cut KC, which is what they basically did with Blackburn. If you think Santana is better.....and Gibson is better, why not just cut him?
    Lighten up Francis....

  12. #190
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    Or, you could just cut KC, which is what they basically did with Blackburn. If you think Santana is better.....and Gibson is better, why not just cut him?
    Again though, you can't say a move is a good idea based on a premise completely derived from your own feelings about what the Twins should do. It can only be based on what the Twins would actually do. The Twins, after the year Correia had, have ZERO realistic interest in just cutting KC. That's not going to happen and it's a really unfair premise that completely muddies the argument.

    Again, this team has too many commitments in their rotation right now to add another one and still expect it won't cut playing time/opportunity from Gibson/Worley/Meyer. It will. I personally, would rather not do that. If you disagree with that, that's one thing. But to prop up your argument based on a bunch of stuff that will not happen? That's not dealing with the situation fairly or reasonably.

  13. #191
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    Again though, you can't say a move is a good idea based on a premise completely derived from your own feelings about what the Twins should do. It can only be based on what the Twins would actually do. The Twins, after the year Correia had, have ZERO realistic interest in just cutting KC. That's not going to happen and it's a really unfair premise that completely muddies the argument.

    Again, this team has too many commitments in their rotation right now to add another one and still expect it won't cut playing time/opportunity from Gibson/Worley/Meyer. It will. I personally, would rather not do that. If you disagree with that, that's one thing. But to prop up your argument based on a bunch of stuff that will not happen? That's not dealing with the situation fairly or reasonably.
    Well, they did eat Blackburn's salary, so there is at least a small data point showing they might be willing to do that in the future.

    Of more interest to me is the assumption that Worley, Gibson and/or Meyer represent better options. I see little evidence any of them should be assumed to be, particularly in April 2014. And if any of them prove to be at some point in the future, I think it's easier to deal with that problem if/when it arises than to hold off on better options now. I think that's true for position players and pitchers, but particularly true for pitchers. You need five starters, for example, so I would feel relatively safe in assuming they will get their opportunity if they earn it.

    I do agree with you that If the Twins are going to add free agents, I'd rather they add offense. But if the choice was Santana or nothing, well, give me Santana.
    Every post is not every other post. - a wise man

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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    Or, you could just cut KC, which is what they basically did with Blackburn. If you think Santana is better.....and Gibson is better, why not just cut him?
    I can give you 5 million reasons why they won't cut him.... those same reasons existed with Blackburn, and even then he was given his release with only a few months to go. They could DFA him, but he can refuse assignment and instantly become a free agent. I understand that 5M is little to a baseball team, but it's still a huge amount of money. Throwing millions away is never a good way to run a business.... and in KCs defense, the signing was not a bad one. It isn't like Nishi where he's clearly a sunk cost.

  16. #193
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    Quote Originally Posted by USAFChief View Post
    Well, they did eat Blackburn's salary, so there is at least a small data point showing they might be willing to do that in the future.
    Nothing other than the "eating salary" part is a relevant comparison. Correia is coming off a decent season whereas Blackburn was vomit-inducing for almost an entire season and couldn't even pull it together in the minor leagues.

    Worley/Gibson/Meyer may not be better, but we'll never know without them receiving opportunities. And the reason you don't make it any more difficult for them to get chances is because Meyer and Gibson represent tremendously more value because of the potential of translating their talent to dirt cheap wins. That fills holes for no cost rather than piling on middling players at exponentionly higher costs. It's a poor allocation of funds.

    And, again to put this in perspective, as of right now Meyer and Gibson are behind no less than Nolasco, Correia, Pelfrey, Hughes, Worley, Diamond, Deduno, and probably Johnson.

    I think that's a long enough line already. You want to complain about giving 2 or 3 year deals to some of that line instead of Santana? Yeah, I'm with you. But what's done is done.
    Last edited by TheLeviathan; 03-12-2014 at 06:45 PM.

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  18. #194
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    Quote Originally Posted by USAFChief View Post
    Well, they did eat Blackburn's salary, so there is at least a small data point showing they might be willing to do that in the future.

    Of more interest to me is the assumption that Worley, Gibson and/or Meyer represent better options. I see little evidence any of them should be assumed to be, particularly in April 2014. And if any of them prove to be at some point in the future, I think it's easier to deal with that problem if/when it arises than to hold off on better options now. I think that's true for position players and pitchers, but particularly true for pitchers. You need five starters, for example, so I would feel relatively safe in assuming they will get their opportunity if they earn it.

    I do agree with you that If the Twins are going to add free agents, I'd rather they add offense. But if the choice was Santana or nothing, well, give me Santana.
    The hardest jump in development is to the majors. Most players take their lumps when they first come up. So they are almost invariably worse than a cheap veteran free agent at first. But unlike the cheap veteran, they have upside. So a team needs to make the uncomfortable decision to get worse at that position before it can get better. Because this decision is uncomfortable, it is often delayed to the point where the developing player is just biding his time. The more oldsters you have around, the longer it delays the inevitable for the youngsters. This might make sense for a contending team, but not for a rebuilding team.

    That's the theory anyway. Our opinions differ on how prevalent it is in practice. What I am concerned about is how likely it is for this franchise this year. I think the impulse to keep e.g. Correia in the rotation while Gibson bides his time in AAA is very strong. For how long? Consider if they get off to a hot start. It might go half the year or more, limping along with five-inning, three-run starts while Gibson dominates and waits. It does the team no good when it really matters, in 2015.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

  19. #195
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    Nothing other than the "eating salary" part is a relevant comparison. Correia is coming off a decent season whereas Blackburn was vomit-inducing for almost an entire season and couldn't even pull it together in the minor leagues.

    Worley/Gibson/Meyer may not be better, but we'll never know without them receiving opportunities. And the reason you don't make it any more difficult for them to get chances is because Meyer and Gibson represent tremendously more value because of the potential of translating their talent to dirt cheap wins. That fills holes for no cost rather than piling on middling players at exponentionly higher costs. It's a poor allocation of funds.

    And, again to put this in perspective, as of right now Meyer and Gibson are behind no less than Nolasco, Correia, Pelfrey, Hughes, Worley, Diamond, Deduno, and probably Johnson.

    I think that's a long enough line already. You want to complain about giving 2 or 3 year deals to some of that line instead of Santana? Yeah, I'm with you. But what's done is done.
    Worley has received opportunities. So has Gibson, for that matter. If they can't beat out Diamond, Deduno, and Johnson (who also represent the possibility of "dirt cheap wins", BTW) then I'm not terribly concerned about additional immediate opportunities.

    As for Meyer, he probably was ticketed for the minors to start 2014 no matter who is in the roster, and I'm confident he'll get his opportunity in time as well. And if he dominates in the minors but there are five guys in Minneapolis pitching too well to lose their spot...I view that as a positive.
    Every post is not every other post. - a wise man

  20. #196
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    Quote Originally Posted by USAFChief View Post
    Worley has received opportunities. So has Gibson, for that matter. If they can't beat out Diamond, Deduno, and Johnson (who also represent the possibility of "dirt cheap wins", BTW) then I'm not terribly concerned about additional immediate opportunities.

    As for Meyer, he probably was ticketed for the minors to start 2014 no matter who is in the roster, and I'm confident he'll get his opportunity in time as well. And if he dominates in the minors but there are five guys in Minneapolis pitching too well to lose their spot...I view that as a positive.
    The premise is not that Gibson would need to beat those players out (which he should do without too much trouble), it is beating out Correia in a rotation of Nolasco, Santana, Hughes, Pelfrey and Correia. Take away Santana, and it's likely Deduno, who's arm could fall off tomorrow, giving Gibson his opportunity. But that wasn't the premise of this thread--whether it is a good idea to hire another veteran and block Gibson (and ultimately Meyer, if that veteran is hired for the longer term).
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

  21. #197
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    Quote Originally Posted by USAFChief View Post
    Worley has received opportunities. So has Gibson, for that matter. If they can't beat out Diamond, Deduno, and Johnson (who also represent the possibility of "dirt cheap wins", BTW) then I'm not terribly concerned about additional immediate opportunities.
    The problem with your perspective is that you treat "beat out" as if it's some kind of automatic thing where the spot is handed over the instant that would be appropriate. Things don't work that way. They especially don't work that way with the Twins and veteran players.

    In addition, "Too well" for the Twins is often not the threshold you and I would hold them to. Nor a clear distinction to make even for an objective person. Meyer and Gibson represent more upside and significantly less resources than anyone on the list in front of them. For a young team, that's worth investing in and you can't invest in that without starts to give them.

    I understand where you disagree and reasonably people could. What I don't think is reasonable is to throw around completely unrealistic scenarios to dismiss a valid concern. Correia and Pelfrey are signed and here until at least July, that's a fact of reality that has to be accepted.

  22. #198
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
    ...Kyle Gibson, who is more than ready at 27...
    Minor nit pick, Gibson will only be 26 this whole season.

    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    We could trade KC right now if we wanted to. The Blue Jays and Orioles are looking for pitching. Other teams will have injuries before April 1st. A team like the Yankees or Dodgers would be okay with a 4.50 career ERA guy coming off 4.19 last year as their long reliever. He is only going to make $5M next year.
    I would have liked to have seen Santana signed as well but this is pretty poor logic. You are claiming that Correia is poor enough that the Twins should look to move him but that he is simultaneously valuable enough that the Jays and Orioles, two teams looking to contend this season, would be willing to trade for him?

    Quote Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan View Post
    ...in KCs defense, the signing was not a bad one. It isn't like Nishi where he's clearly a sunk cost.
    Actually it was bad signing for exactly the reason we're talking about today. It was for two seasons. We had an opportunity to add an actual above average pitcher and didn't get him. I find it hard to believe that the Twins offer didn't take into account the fact that we had 4 spots in the rotation already locked up with the fifth having plenty of competition. We'll be saying the same thing about Pelfrey next off season.

    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    Worley/Gibson/Meyer may not be better, but we'll never know without them receiving opportunities. And the reason you don't make it any more difficult for them to get chances is because Meyer and Gibson represent tremendously more value because of the potential of translating their talent to dirt cheap wins. That fills holes for no cost rather than piling on middling players at exponentionly higher costs. It's a poor allocation of funds.
    The Twins are $30-50 million dollars below their potential budget. The fact that Gibson, Meyer, Worley, etc... are cheap is irrelevant. They could have signed Santana and still upgraded two positions offensively with good players.

  23. #199
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oxtung View Post
    The Twins are $30-50 million dollars below their potential budget. The fact that Gibson, Meyer, Worley, etc... are cheap is irrelevant. They could have signed Santana and still upgraded two positions offensively with good players.
    They'll be cheap for 6 years. What the Twins budget looks like now isn't all that important really.

    Money has never been my issue with this. It was the guaranteed contracts/spots that is my issue. What Meyer/Sano/Buxton/Kepler/Rosario/Arcia all represent is a wave of cheap, young, impact players. Regardless of what budget space you have it is ALWAYS good to be getting high quality play from cheap players.

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    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    Phew. Welp, I'm just glad the Braves got him.

    Bullet. Dodged.

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