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Thread: Heyman: The Twins made a 3-year offer to Ervin Santana

  1. #141
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by spycake View Post
    Same with Garza (I actually wish we been a hair more aggressive with him, and made the same offer as the Brewers).
    This was a very good post. I think I could handle the amount of guaranteed contracts/spots being handed out in the case of Garza. So it got me thinking - I think a big part of my issue is that I'm just not all that impressed with Santana. If it were Garza or Ubaldo Jimenez I think I'd be more inclined to throw another impass in the way of a prospect.

    Santana? No, just not doing it for me.

  2. #142
    Senior Member All-Star JB_Iowa's Avatar
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    Well, 3/$33m is Kyle Lohse money -- with the same rejection of a QO as last year.

    But Lohse was 3 years older. I'll leave you to compare the stats but would you rather have Santana at 31 or Lohse at 34?

    It's hard for me to see Santana committing to 3/$33m but if it gets in the range of 3/$39-$40m, it would be a lot harder for him to turn down.

    If the Twins really want him, would that extra $2/million a year hamstring them? No.

    I'm still not convinced they that they should do this but if they really want him and aren't just shopping for a bargain, it would seem like they will need to up their offer.

  3. #143
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by spycake View Post
    Deduno? You project Deduno as better than Ervin Santana, not only for 2014 but also 2015? Deduno, whose FIP/xFIP, K/9, and BB/9 were all worse than Santana last year, in half the innings? Deduno, whose season last year ended early due to shoulder surgery? Who only has 192 career MLB innings? Who hasn't pitched more than 138 innings in any professional season, ever? Who is only 8 months younger than Santana?

    You made some fair points in the Drew debates, but this is wild. Methinks you are severely underestimating the value of established MLB performance.
    I'm higher on Deduno than most. My only worry with him is health. And, to be honest, that is a big worry. But, when healthy, he is better than Santana.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    This was a very good post. I think I could handle the amount of guaranteed contracts/spots being handed out in the case of Garza. So it got me thinking - I think a big part of my issue is that I'm just not all that impressed with Santana. If it were Garza or Ubaldo Jimenez I think I'd be more inclined to throw another impass in the way of a prospect.

    Santana? No, just not doing it for me.

    Santana is definitely #3 on this list. He still would have been much better than anything currently slated for the Twins rotation. And it's quite likely that he would have had one clinker in his 3-year contract. But then again, based on their own individual career tracks as evidence, it's similarly just as likely that you would have had the one clinker year in three with both Garza and Jiminez, as well. Worth the risk, imo. And Santana has proven to be the most durable of the 3.




    The biggest take I get from this is the Twins taking on the mantle of a Don Quixote-esque persona. Through cold introspection and cold reality, they finally acknowledged how badly they had bungled the Rotation situation, but lacked the true vigor, mettle and guile to go all the way in completing their quest to returned legitimacy. In both the cases of Garza and Santana they did just enough to NOT get the deal done, whereas they did too much to get the deal done for the lesser targets. Of course their quests for Starting Pitching and a major league catcher were at the cost of also considering the other holes that glaringly still need filling. (Forget pursuing a legit FA MLB hitter or a high-priced SS, even going on the cheap, all they could muster was to sign 2 veteran guys who appear to be done..... over other examples of going on the cheap, ie, what looks like a successful resurrection of Grady Sizemore's career, or going the relatively inexpensive Intl. route for impact from one or more of the Cubans).

  5. #145
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    Santana is definitely #3 on this list. He still would have been much better than anything currently slated for the Twins rotation. .
    I still think that Santana will be better than Correia (of the 4 pitchers slated to be in the Twins' rotation.) That's about it. If 2008, things might be different, but it would still be a close call with Nolasco (matter of fact, I'd take Nolasco's 2008 with the Marlins over Santana's 2008 with the Angels...)
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  6. #146
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
    I'm higher on Deduno than most. My only worry with him is health. And, to be honest, that is a big worry. But, when healthy, he is better than Santana.
    Big worry? How about over-arching worry? As long as Deduno is cost-controlled, you can throw him into the depth chart and get some sporadically spectacular results.....coupled with the full expectation of an eventual breakdown and disruption to the rotation.

    By contrast, Santana, less spectacularly but very reliably, has averaged 193+ IP and nearly 31 starts per year over his 8 full-time years.

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  8. #147
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    I still think that Santana will be better than Correia (of the 4 pitchers slated to be in the Twins' rotation.) That's about it. If 2008, things might be different, but it would still be a close call with Nolasco (matter of fact, I'd take Nolasco's 2008 with the Marlins over Santana's 2008 with the Angels...)
    The salary figures being thrown around indicate that you're in the minority (at this point, anyway, doesn't mean you won't turn out right, but as it stands now, MONEY TALKS, and indicates that those with the money are putting that money where their mouth is, and willing to foresake a high draft pick to do so, besides).
    Last edited by ashburyjohn; 03-11-2014 at 11:00 AM. Reason: Unnecessary and disrespectful introductory comment deleted

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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    I still think that Santana will be better than Correia (of the 4 pitchers slated to be in the Twins' rotation.) That's about it. If 2008, things might be different, but it would still be a close call with Nolasco (matter of fact, I'd take Nolasco's 2008 with the Marlins over Santana's 2008 with the Angels...)
    Here are the career numbers on the Twins top 4 and Ervin. My personal opinion is Ricky has been more consistent and if you take out Hughes numbers in the new Yankee stadium, his numbers are very similar to Santana's and he is arguably more talented (and 3 years younger). But adding Ervin, if it means pushing out KC or Pelfrey via trade would certainily add talent to this rotation. Two years down the road, Ervin, Hughes, Meyer, and Nolasco is a pretty talented rotation. None of these guys is a #5 starter, with Meyer, Ervin, and Hughes, I would argue you have #2 potential or better.


    ERA WHIP ERA+ K/9
    Ervin 4.19 1.28 100 7.1

    KC 4.49 1.41 89 5.8

    Pelfrey 4.48 1.47 90 5.2

    Ricky 4.37 1.28 94 7.4

    Phil 4.54 1.32 95 7.6
    Last edited by tobi0040; 03-11-2014 at 09:38 AM.

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  11. #149
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    But adding Ervin, if it means pushing out KC or Pelfrey via trade would certainily add talent to this rotation.
    In addition to being unconvinced by Santana's erratic career...I'm even less convinced these two are the victims of being pushed out.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    In addition to being unconvinced by Santana's erratic career...I'm even less convinced these two are the victims of being pushed out.
    I would guess the odds KC is with the Twins after July is under 10%. So I think he is either moved before the start of the season or before the deadline. At the very least, we wait a few months for Meyer or Gibson to step up and fill that role if we sign Ervin.

    Even that assumes Pelfrey is somehow the guy he was in 2008 or 2010 and is worth keeping, our thesis on Hughes was correct, none of our five starters needs TJ (which seems to happen every year), no shoulder issues, etc.
    Last edited by tobi0040; 03-11-2014 at 10:30 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
    I'm higher on Deduno than most. My only worry with him is health. And, to be honest, that is a big worry. But, when healthy, he is better than Santana.
    You're talking as if Deduno's a young phenom or foreign import with a brief but excellent track record. But the guy is 30 years old, he was outrighted just one year ago (and waived and released the year prior), and even at his small sample "peak" he still wasn't as good as Santana last year by basically any measure (ERA+, FIP/xFIP, SO/BB, IP, IP/GS, etc).

    Deduno's a fun guy to watch, and I'll gladly keep him on the roster somehow to see if he can keep surprising us, but counting on a guy like him for the 2014 (and 2015!) rotation is the kind of thing that got the Twins into their 2012-2013 starting pitching quagmire to begin with.

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    Quote Originally Posted by spycake View Post
    Deduno's a fun guy to watch, and I'll gladly keep him on the roster somehow to see if he can keep surprising us, but counting on a guy like him for the 2014 (and 2015!) rotation is the kind of thing that got the Twins into their 2012-2013 starting pitching quagmire to begin with.
    I agree with this. I think you keep him around and the ceiling is probably last year. 108 IP, 3.83 ERA. We can't under-estimate how important those 100 IP were at that ERA. Keep him in the pen, spot starter, he will probably start as the #5 starter. But expecting him to be healthy for a full season is probably not realistic.

  16. #153
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    The salary figures being thrown around indicate that you're in the minority (at this point, anyway, doesn't mean you won't turn out right, but as it stands now, MONEY TALKS, and indicates that those with the money are putting that money where their mouth is, and willing to foresake a high draft pick to do so, besides).
    Money is talking so loudly that Kendry Morales, Stephen Drew and Ervin Santana are all unsigned on March 11.
    Last edited by ChiTownTwinsFan; 03-11-2014 at 02:07 PM.
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  18. #154
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
    Money is talking so loudly that Kendry Morales, Stephen Drew and Ervin Santana are all unsigned on March 11.
    To be fair, I think you have three agents here desperately trying to save face, that along with the draft picks plays a huge role in why these guys are unsigned.

    Each one of these guys turned down 1/14 because of what would be out there. Their agents drastically over-stated the market. Nelson Cruz decision cost him $6M next year. These agents are pulling out all the stops to not be in that camp. In fact, Ervin fired his agent.

    Had Ervin been realistic early on, he would have gotten what Nolasco and Garza got. But he was talking about $80-100M while all the teams moved on. The question should probably be, how will 3/33 or 4/44 compare with what the free agents next year will get. I think this deal may look very good.

    And we have counted out Boras every year and his guys always sign late. I remember nobody thinking a market existed for Lohse or Zito when he got that huge deal. Boras guys usually get what they thought or more and it always surprises people..
    Last edited by tobi0040; 03-11-2014 at 11:52 AM.

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    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    To be fair, I think you have three agents here desperately trying to save face, that along with the draft picks plays a huge role in why these guys are unsigned.

    Each one of these guys turned down 1/14 because of what would be out there. Their agents drastically over-stated the market. Nelson Cruz decision cost him $6M next year. These agents are pulling out all the stops to not be in that camp. In fact, Ervin fired his agent.

    Had Ervin been realistic early on, he would have gotten what Nolasco and Garza got. But he was talking about $80-100M while all the teams moved on.

    And we have counted out Boras every year and his guys always sign late. I remember nobody thinking a market existed for Lohse or Zito when he got that huge deal. Boras guys usually get what they thought or more and it always surprises people..
    Oh, I get it. I was just responding to the implication that other teams are talking with their money. You can make the claim that their teams knew they would reject the qualifying offer and only offered to scoop a draft pick. Not one team has made an acceptable offer of more than one year to any of them. That speaks volumes.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

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    Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
    Not one team has made an acceptable offer of more than one year to any of them. That speaks volumes.
    Actually, by definition, not one team has made an acceptable offer to them at all -- they haven't accepted any offers.

    But at least in Santana's case, I think we can be pretty confident that these rumored 3/30-ish offers are real, and combined with the Lohse deal last year, it's probably the discounted market rate for March SP signings. Which suggests Santana is still valued more than Hughes and Pelfrey, at least, and comparably to Nolasco (which I believe was jokin's original point in this line of discussion).

    Now, what's going on with Drew and Morales at this point, who knows? Leave it to the Boras clients to really confuse the market!

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    Senior Member All-Star JB_Iowa's Avatar
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    • The market for Ervin Santana has become "interesting," per Duquette, who alluded to the fact that other teams are beginning to show interest due to various injuries in camp. Most notably, the Braves have begun to show interest in Santana after an MRI showed ligament damage in Kris Medlen's right elbow.

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/0...medium=twitter

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    Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
    Money is talking so loudly that Kendry Morales, Stephen Drew and Ervin Santana are all unsigned on March 11.
    Flawed reasoning. Money hasn't finished negotiating yet. Let's revisit this subject again at the end of the month. My guess is the game of chicken will end up like it usually does, especially with Boras involved, certain GMs and owners will blink and all three players will come out just fine- likely nicely above where the supposed current market is.

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    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by spycake View Post
    You're talking as if Deduno's a young phenom or foreign import with a brief but excellent track record. But the guy is 30 years old, he was outrighted just one year ago (and waived and released the year prior), and even at his small sample "peak" he still wasn't as good as Santana last year by basically any measure (ERA+, FIP/xFIP, SO/BB, IP, IP/GS, etc).

    Deduno's a fun guy to watch, and I'll gladly keep him on the roster somehow to see if he can keep surprising us, but counting on a guy like him for the 2014 (and 2015!) rotation is the kind of thing that got the Twins into their 2012-2013 starting pitching quagmire to begin with.
    I recognize that I have an irrational affection for Deduno. I just think he's developed by leaps and bounds in the last two years to the point of bucking the age/development curve. He's a late bloomer, who seemed to only learn how to control his fastball last year. But once he did, he took off. When healthy, he was one of the best pitchers in baseball. He was only healthy for a short time. If he could stay healthy, his upside could be higher than Santana, in my admittedly rose-colored opinion.

    I like Santana, in part because he has been so durable and consistent. And I wouldn't mind them signing him to a 3/36 type deal, in contrast to my earlier claims. You're right. It is foolish to base your pitching decisions on circumstances beyond this year. I just don't want guys like Meyer blocked, that's all. More of a worry than a plan.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    I would guess the odds KC is with the Twins after July is under 10%. So I think he is either moved before the start of the season or before the deadline. At the very least, we wait a few months for Meyer or Gibson to step up and fill that role if we sign Ervin.

    Even that assumes Pelfrey is somehow the guy he was in 2008 or 2010 and is worth keeping, our thesis on Hughes was correct, none of our five starters needs TJ (which seems to happen every year), no shoulder issues, etc.
    Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
    I recognize that I have an irrational affection for Deduno. I just think he's developed by leaps and bounds in the last two years to the point of bucking the age/development curve. He's a late bloomer, who seemed to only learn how to control his fastball last year. But once he did, he took off. When healthy, he was one of the best pitchers in baseball. He was only healthy for a short time. If he could stay healthy, his upside could be higher than Santana, in my admittedly rose-colored opinion.

    I like Santana, in part because he has been so durable and consistent. And I wouldn't mind them signing him to a 3/36 type deal, in contrast to my earlier claims. You're right. It is foolish to base your pitching decisions on circumstances beyond this year. I just don't want guys like Meyer blocked, that's all. More of a worry than a plan.


    Too many ifs, all with a high potential to turn into whiffs. Give me the gold-plated major leaguer option every time. And as you both say, a chance to get one of the gold-platers at a discount doesn't hamstring the chances for Meyer and Gibson to blossom in to the rotation one iota.
    Last edited by jokin; 03-11-2014 at 01:05 PM.

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