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Thread: Heyman: The Twins made a 3-year offer to Ervin Santana

  1. #221
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    ^^^^This should not be controversial to anyone who has followed the Twins. At least we don't have Tony Bautista blocking Michael Cuddyer or anything.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    To put it simply, if the Twins demote Pelfrey/Correia/Hughes/Whomever with a 5+ ERA in May to call up Gibson I'll be the happiest crow-eater you'll ever find.
    That threshold seems a little low. If you reverse the scenario and have Gibson go north with the team, and suppose he puts up a 5+ ERA "in May" (early? late?), sending him down to AAA might seem premature, depending on fundamental factors and if he's showing signs of being able to improve. So I wouldn't fault a team for sticking with a veteran in that circumstance either. Pitchers have bad months or two and still turn the season around, if the hole they've dug isn't too deep.

    If they had a Jason Marquis situation with an 8+ ERA after 7 starts and didn't drop him (as they did in 2012) to give someone like Gibson a chance, that would be damning. They also did let Blackburn run up a 7+ ERA that season, in even more starts, and that would be even more damning in this situation now to keep Gibson down if he's performing.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    To put it simply, if the Twins demote Pelfrey/Correia/Hughes/Whomever with a 5+ ERA in May to call up Gibson I'll be the happiest crow-eater you'll ever find.
    I am pretty sure that whoever wins the 5th spot could easily be demoted/cut in May if pitching poorly. I don't think the org feels any great loyalty to any of Deduno, Worley, or Diamond, they just may want more than March to figure out if any of them are worth keeping. (The fact that the Twins made an offer to Santana suggests the org doesn't feel very great about them, certainly.)

    And in that scenario, if pitching well, Gibson would be the first up.

    Although I admit, if Santana had taken the last spot, it wouldn't have been quite so easy. Personally, I think Correia would have had a relatively short leash in that scenario, given the expiring contract and bullpen experience (and frankly, his mediocre upside). Honestly, Pelfrey and Hughes should probably have similar short-ish leashes -- for their better upside, they are still gambles who have to prove they have improved. Although their leashes are probably longer than a month or two unless they absolutely fall apart like Worley 2013.

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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    Here is what I had in mind. Sign Ervin, trade KC.

    You break camp with Nolasco, Ervin, Hughes, Pelfrey, and Gibson (I don't care about losing Worley). One of these guys will get hurt and/or it will not shock me if Pelfrey needs some AAA time to figure something out. In which case Meyer can be up here in June, which I think is the Twins plan anyway. Best case is Pelfrey pitches well and you can trade him in July.
    Given the Twins aggressive pursuit of Garza, even after signing Pelfrey, it likely means that's exactly what the Twins had in mind, as well.

    People seem to be forgetting that the Twins have been earnestly looking to set up their rotation by inking 3 long-term deals for veteran starting pitchers this entire offseason, not 2. It is logical to conclude that in their scenario of 3 long-term SP deals getting done + Pelfrey @ 2 years, that KC was/is going to be gone by either the end of ST or by the Deadline. This thinking seems to illustrate that they weren't counting on much of anything from the 6 remaining SP candidates, just assuming that one would rise above the rest to claim the #5 spot.

    Gibson obviously has a lot to prove to the Twins braintrust that he's a clear cut above the rest, there are no public indications from the braintrust that that is the case at this point; they'll likely repeat the familiar cycle from 2013 through the assorted veteran options until they all fail, get traded, or get hurt.
    Last edited by jokin; 03-13-2014 at 11:33 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by spycake View Post
    I am pretty sure that whoever wins the 5th spot could easily be demoted/cut in May if pitching poorly. I don't think the org feels any great loyalty to any of Deduno, Worley, or Diamond, they just may want more than March to figure out if any of them are worth keeping. (The fact that the Twins made an offer to Santana suggests the org doesn't feel very great about them, certainly.)

    And in that scenario, if pitching well, Gibson would be the first up.

    Although I admit, if Santana had taken the last spot, it wouldn't have been quite so easy. Personally, I think Correia would have had a relatively short leash in that scenario, given the expiring contract and bullpen experience (and frankly, his mediocre upside). Honestly, Pelfrey and Hughes should probably have similar short-ish leashes -- for their better upside, they are still gambles who have to prove they have improved. Although their leashes are probably longer than a month or two unless they absolutely fall apart like Worley 2013.
    Sorry to step on your post, Spycake, I was typing while your were posting.

    I hope you're right about Gibson being the first up, but unless Correia is traded or there is an injury, I could see them cycling through about 4 guys before they turn to Gibson in the #5 spot or as a replacement for a faltering, "short-leash" SP, even Kris Johnson (in pursuit of having a LHSP in the rotation). I hope I'm wrong, but there are no indications from management about Gibson, and leaving no spare tire unkicked before turning to the High Performance Summer Radial is just how the Twins roll.

  6. #226
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Excellent points ashbury....but doesn't all that speak to my larger point that how a prospect gets blocked is by a myriad of factors that are different situation to situation? The surest thing to assess is roster glut in front and assume that it muddies the situation.


    Again, our own GM is quoted about how clear the path is, not how talented or well performing they are. Plouffe was clearly getting the job this year regardless of what Sano did.
    Last edited by TheLeviathan; 03-13-2014 at 11:52 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    Sorry to step on your post, Spycake, I was typing while your were posting.

    I hope you're right about Gibson being the first up, but unless Correia is traded or there is an injury, I could see them cycling through about 4 guys before they turn to Gibson in the #5 spot or as a replacement for a faltering, "short-leash" SP, even Kris Johnson (in pursuit of having a LHSP in the rotation). I hope I'm wrong, but there are no indications from management about Gibson, and leaving no spare tire unkicked before turning to the High Performance Summer Radial is just how the Twins roll.
    Could you name the 4 starting pitchers you see them using before Gibson?

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    Quote Originally Posted by howieramone View Post
    Could you name the 4 starting pitchers you see them using before Gibson?
    The 3 guys out of options plus Johnson.

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    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by howieramone View Post
    Could you name the 4 starting pitchers you see them using before Gibson?
    I count Worley, Diamond, and Deduno... one of which will probably be cut out of Spring Training.

    So really, I count two guys before Gibson.

    One of those guys will get the fifth starting spot out of Spring Training.

    So there's one guy before Gibson.

    I have the feeling we'll see Kyle Gibson in Minnesota relatively soon.

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    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    The 3 guys out of options plus Johnson.
    I'd put Johnson on the same level as Gibson, meaning that it will come down to individual performance.

    The Twins have no loyalty or necessity in promoting Johnson before Gibson, who has been a Twins guy since being drafted.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    I count Worley, Diamond, and Deduno... one of which will probably be cut out of Spring Training.

    So really, I count two guys before Gibson.

    One of those guys will get the fifth starting spot out of Spring Training.

    So there's one guy before Gibson.

    I have the feeling we'll see Kyle Gibson in Minnesota relatively soon.
    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    I'd put Johnson on the same level as Gibson, meaning that it will come down to individual performance.

    The Twins have no loyalty or necessity in promoting Johnson before Gibson, who has been a Twins guy since being drafted.

    I am in favor of this sentiment. But the Twins can still rationalize that they can wring more value out of the "OOO Three" and find creative ways to retain all of them- and they can make a somewhat reasonable case for why they would wish to keep each of them. And then there's the LHSP option that Johnson presents- and we all know how overly-enamored the Twins get with recently acquired players. I'm not in agreement that this is what they should do, it's just that it's what they have done in the recent past.

    This is a great case for when we'd all love to see that the prospect forces the MLB barrier doors open with pitching dynamite.
    Last edited by jokin; 03-13-2014 at 01:20 PM.

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    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    I am in favor of this sentiment. But the Twins can still rationalize that they can wring more value out of the "OOO Three" and find creative ways to retain all of them- and they can make a somewhat reasonable case for why they would wish to keep each of them. And then there's the LHSP option that Johnson presents. I'm not in agreement that this is what they should do, it's just that it's what they have done in the recent past.

    This is a great case for when we'd all love to see that the prospect forces the MLB barrier doors open with pitching dynamite.
    Given the way Worley and Diamond have pitched thus far, it wouldn't surprise me if the Twins jettisoned one or both of them when they head north.

    Of course, it's only March 13th. They could still turn it around but right now, it doesn't look good for them.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Given the way Worley and Diamond have pitched thus far, it wouldn't surprise me if the Twins jettisoned one or both of them when they head north.

    Of course, it's only March 13th. They could still turn it around but right now, it doesn't look good for them.
    And it shouldn't look good for them, how many teams out there would still have them under consideration for a spot based on last year's performances and what has transpired thus far in ST? (Edit- OK, maybe at least one- the Phillies are actually considering Jeff Manhip). These proposed cuts would be both a cleansing breath and a wake-up call to the rest of the roster all at once. Instead, they moved Meyer and Buxton out of the country club many days before their guest passes had expired.

    If the Twins have made an internal change in their philosophy, this probably should have happened already, either in the offseason or after the first evidence was in. That Gibson hasn't moved to the forefront of this discussion rather than still as an afterthought- for the last starting spot is inexplicable- for every team that isn't the Twins.
    Last edited by jokin; 03-13-2014 at 12:51 PM.

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    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    And it shouldn't look good for them, how many teams out there would still have them under consideration for a spot based on last year's performances and what has transpired thus far in ST? These proposed cuts would be both a cleansing breath and a wake-up call to the rest of the roster all at once. Instead, they moved Meyer and Buxton out of the country club many days before their guest passes had expired.
    I don't see anything wrong with moving Meyer and Buxton out of the MLB camp, particularly Buxton... A guy who probably won't see the MLB roster next spring.

    The Twins acquired a handful of starting pitchers this offseason and they have Gibson waiting to take the next available spot. Those guys need the ST innings with the big league club, not Meyer. The more roster clutter in the clubhouse, the less innings for the guys you need to make a decision on immediately. Less innings means less informed decisions come March 30th.

    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    If the Twins have made an internal change in their philosophy, this probably should have happened already, either in the offseason or after the first evidence was in. That Gibson hasn't moved to the forefront of this discussion rather than still as an afterthought- for the last starting spot is inexplicable- for every team that isn't the Twins.
    While I doubt Gibson starts the season in the MLB rotation, have the Twins made any indication that they've eliminated him from the conversation? Honest question. I haven't seen them say much of anything about anything yet.

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    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    I'd put Johnson on the same level as Gibson, meaning that it will come down to individual performance.

    The Twins have no loyalty or necessity in promoting Johnson before Gibson, who has been a Twins guy since being drafted.
    We've formed bizarre loyalties in the past also. The rhetoric about Johnson and Fryer this year has made it seem like loyalties are already formed. Right now he's in 8th until something with the roster changes. I think a good case can be made for ninth.

    either way it's splitting hairs because the path is anything but clear. I believe Gibson will get a chance. I also believe it will be far later than most of us would agree. People can claim the Twins will drop loyalties to the 7/8 ahead of him but there is almost no historical evidence for this team doing that midseason.

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    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    While I doubt Gibson starts the season in the MLB rotation, have the Twins made any indication that they've eliminated him from the conversation? Honest question. I haven't seen them say much of anything about anything yet.
    In an interview question about the 5th starter Antony implied very heavily that it was a three man race. Then he talked about Johnson/Gibson.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    I don't see anything wrong with moving Meyer and Buxton out of the MLB camp, particularly Buxton... A guy who probably won't see the MLB roster next spring.

    The Twins acquired a handful of starting pitchers this offseason and they have Gibson waiting to take the next available spot. Those guys need the ST innings with the big league club, not Meyer. The more roster clutter in the clubhouse, the less innings for the guys you need to make a decision on immediately. Less innings means less informed decisions come March 30th.



    While I doubt Gibson starts the season in the MLB rotation, have the Twins made any indication that they've eliminated him from the conversation? Honest question. I haven't seen them say much of anything about anything yet.
    The 2 guys who represent the main hope for the future send a message by their presence to everyone else that they need to step up their game if they want to stick around. And in turn, those same 2 guys should seemingly benefit from having precious daily access to the MLB environment, with MLB coaches and current MLB players, while taking more major league reps, at least hanging around the ML camp for another week or so. Meyer getting two or three more appearances of an inning or two hardly hurts other guys we're all pretty sure either don't need it, or who don't deserve them.

    Re: Gibson. I didn't say he's been eliminated from the conversation on eventually getting his chance, it's just that, based on how the Twins are talking, his chance has been moved farther back in the line of known mediocrity ahead of him. If he was 24, like Meyer, that would be one thing, but he turns 27 in October, not exactly a baby spring chick, needing to wait his turn in the pool until his tail feathers get oiled up.

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    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    The 2 guys who represent the main hope for the future send a message by their presence to everyone else that they need to step up their game if they want to stick around. And in turn, those same 2 guys should seemingly benefit from having precious daily access to the MLB environment, with MLB coaches and current MLB players, while taking more major league reps, at least hanging around the ML camp for another week or so. Meyer getting two or three more appearances of an inning or two hardly hurts other guys we're all pretty sure either don't need it, or who don't deserve them.
    Honestly, I don't think it matters. Buxton got a couple weeks to hang around the big boys, same as Meyer. Now it's time to start determining the Opening Day roster and eliminating two guys who aren't going to make it is the next logical step.

    Meyer needs to be stretched out, just like the big leaguers. You can't have him throwing 1-2 innings at a time as you approach late March. Let him get his reps in an environment that will best prepare him for the upcoming season.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    In an interview question about the 5th starter Antony implied very heavily that it was a three man race. Then he talked about Johnson/Gibson.
    Fair enough. I didn't see that comment. I don't really agree with not putting Gibson in the fray but it's not the type of thing I'm going to get too upset about, either.

    If it's late May and Gibson is dominating the minors while Correia is throwing batting practice, then I'll get angry about it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Honestly, I don't think it matters. Buxton got a couple weeks to hang around the big boys, same as Meyer. Now it's time to start determining the Opening Day roster and eliminating two guys who aren't going to make it is the next logical step.

    Meyer needs to be stretched out, just like the big leaguers. You can't have him throwing 1-2 innings at a time as you approach late March. Let him get his reps in an environment that will best prepare him for the upcoming season.
    I guess that makes sense if opening day, 2014, is the greater priority. Getting your real future players to the 25 man permanently and sending a message to the rest of the team tha a new day is coming is a greater priority to me. And according to Pat Reusse's article, the Twins have never demoted their top prospects so early in the Spring Training process previously. Watching Alex Presley butcher play after play isn't helping this team long-term, Mastro looks like he will never recover to his previous level of mediocrity. Hicks was withheld until mid-game yesterday.

    Meyer is more problematic, as you make a good point about getting stretched out, but there are ways around that, and hanging around until March 15 and picking up a few more major league innings won't hurt his stretching out process. My point is, if he is going to get his call-up in late June or July, he needs as much exposure to the major league environment as possible. All of these are building blocks at getting these guys ready to claim their major league spots for good in 2015. (We obvioiusly disagree on Buxton, assuming he has another year like 2013, he certainly better be the top candidate to start in CF on April 1, 2015).
    Last edited by jokin; 03-13-2014 at 01:35 PM.

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