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Thread: Aledmys Diaz

  1. #1
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    Aledmys Diaz

    Aledmys Diaz signed a 4 year deal with the St Louis Cardinals today. Sounds like it was supposed to be under $20M for the 4 years. I am kind of happy the Twins didn't make such an offer since he really doesn't sound like a game changing shortstop. Should hit for average but not much power and isn't a strong defensive shortstop, so I am not sure how he could get such a payday out of the Cards who don't seem to have a spot for him to play.

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    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    I think it speaks well of him that St. Louis was interested and 20M isn't a backbreaking gamble. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out.

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    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    To put things into perspective with the dollar figures:

    The Twins paid $5M + $9M for 3 years ($14M/3yrs) for Nishioka. What the Cardinals did is in the ballpark
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    To put things into perspective with the dollar figures:

    The Twins paid $5M + $9M for 3 years ($14M/3yrs) for Nishioka. What the Cardinals did is in the ballpark
    Based on the fact that it's the Cardinals, with 6 or 7 other teams hot on his trail with offers, I'll take a wild guess and surmise that Diaz will work out much better than Nishioka did.

    Folks, this is how you put together REAL "crazy" depth at key positions.

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    If he was a game changing shortstop then he would have gotten triple+ what he got. This isn't a bad deal and he could outperform this.

    What it comes down to is how much are you willing to pay for a prospect? I would value his prospect value and ETA roughly similar to Eddie Rosario with a better chance at being a SS and a little less bat. Would you feel comfortable giving a prospect like Eddie Rosario 20M guaranteed to add him to the org?

    In the past you could acquire extra talent in the draft or in int'l FA but most of those loopholes were closed in the last CBA and guys like Diaz are one of the only forms of prospects that can be added that only cost money.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    I'll take a wild guess and surmise that Diaz will work out much better than Nishioka did.
    Way to go out on a limb.

    It doesn't sound like his defense plays at SS, and he's got little pop so the Rosario comparison seems convenient at best.

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    Quote Originally Posted by PseudoSABR View Post
    Way to go out on a limb.

    It doesn't sound like his defense plays at SS, and he's got little pop so the Rosario comparison seems convenient at best.
    The Rosario comp is not meant to be a player comp but rather valuation comp. Diaz is a bottom half of a top 100 prospect type in my book. Is that worth 20M guaranteed since you don't have to give up any other assets?

    It will be interesting to see where he gets ranked next offseason (if he doesn't play much for the Cards) after a season of likely AAA ball and some time in the majors.

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    Twins News Team All-Star PseudoSABR's Avatar
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    I just think the notion that Diaz is a bottom half top 100 is a shot in the dark. I don't think there's legitimate data to base that on. The Cuban infielders who signed for more didn't even crack the top 100s. BA rated Guerrero in the top 150 IIRC, whose bat projects far better, and looks to field the same position.

    St. Louis could be paying for Nick Punto, which actually has value, just not for the Twins.

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    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PseudoSABR View Post
    I just think the notion that Diaz is a bottom half top 100 is a shot in the dark. I don't think there's legitimate data to base that on. The Cuban infielders who signed for more didn't even crack the top 100s. BA rated Guerrero in the top 150 IIRC, whose bat projects far better, and looks to field the same position.

    St. Louis could be paying for Nick Punto, which actually has value, just not for the Twins.
    The comp still works because plenty of 50-100 ranked prospects could turn into Puntos.

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    Same difference. The bottom half of the top 100 and the next 50 prospects aren't considerably different. The main point is that he is a decent prospect but he's not a great prospect and he got a substantial guaranteed sum. I think it's foolish to drop 20+M guaranteed on fringy top 100 prospect when a proven player as good as Ervin Santana could probably be had for 40ish M.

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    If you are sitting a pile of money and you'll "do everything it takes to add talent", how would you not sign this guy for that price? I'm sure that money will get used someday though.
    Lighten up Francis....

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    Heck, they gave up a proven MLB player for Worley and May.....this would be 100x better as an investment.
    Lighten up Francis....

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    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Wow. This might be a sign that his workouts were thoroughly unimpressive. Even still, that's a cheap gamble.

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    Quote Originally Posted by PseudoSABR View Post
    I just think the notion that Diaz is a bottom half top 100 is a shot in the dark. I don't think there's legitimate data to base that on. The Cuban infielders who signed for more didn't even crack the top 100s. BA rated Guerrero in the top 150 IIRC, whose bat projects far better, and looks to field the same position.

    St. Louis could be paying for Nick Punto, which actually has value, just not for the Twins.
    The legitimate data is the fact that 6-7 teams reportedly made actual offers. (By contrast, the Twins were essentially competing with no one for Nishioka). And the fact that the Cardinals guard their last nickels pretty closely. If this was a bidding war worth winning, the Cards provide legitimate data and history as an organization that recognizes and unlocks potential major league talent. And for pre-emptively building potential quality depth at key positions. The cost involved is literally pocket change in MLB terms, without giving up a prospect or hamstringing the team financially, seems well worth the risk entailed in the very modest investment- a 23-year old with a Nick Punto floor- who is major league ready- is pretty enticing when you compare the alternatives currently in the Twins organization.
    Last edited by jokin; 03-10-2014 at 10:31 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    Wow. This might be a sign that his workouts were thoroughly unimpressive. Even still, that's a cheap gamble.
    Not to mention an organization that can absolutely maximize that gamble. My thought when I heard Cardinals was that the reports about his lack of true SS ability was probably true, but that he likely showed enough to play some at 2B/SS/3B with a worthwhile bat, a profile that the Cardinals absolutely love.
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    Wow. This might be a sign that his workouts were thoroughly unimpressive. Even still, that's a cheap gamble.
    The quality of reporting regarding the $number leaves a lot to be desired. I believe it was reported last year that the Twins felt that his price was out of their reach. This is a head-scratcher, especially with this report I've quoted below about his workout with the Cards. Imagine a team having the #33 ranked prospect starting at 2B (Kolten Wong) and signing a big-name FA at SS, re-upping their 3B, AND STILL willing to go out and get Diaz, regardless.

    The same writer who reported on the salary terms makes it sound like Diaz has game-changing potential and that the Cards are constantly looking to build depth, and then they spent an enormous amount of time and effort at understanding the Cuban game and what Diaz potentially has to offer:

    "Diaz has a lively bat, and scouts have said he could play shortstop, second base or third base with the potential to be a standout righthanded hitter. The Cardinals worked him out at shortstop last month.


    Diaz offers the Cardinals potential depth behind Peralta and perhaps another challenger at second base to rookie Kolten Wong.


    “We believe this is someone who could help us in the future,” Matheny said.


    Diaz held a workout for several teams in Arizona last month. A scout who attended remarked that Diaz, who had the long layoff from game play, faced live pitching in the workout to show his timing hadn’t faltered. He held a private workout for several teams, including the New York Yankees, in February and, according to MLB.com, with the Cubs last week.


    Matheny said he was impressed with Diaz’s polish in the private workout.
    “He’s had a lot of repetitions in this game,” Matheny said. “You could tell. He’s not just one of the raw talents. He’s a guy who has been well-taught. This kid looks like he understands the game.”
    Matheny described with a scout’s eye what Diaz showed: clean fielding, different arm slot but good power on his throws, and “the ball jumped off his bat.”

    He added that Diaz’s walk and mannerisms were similar to Yankee captain Derek Jeter’s."
    Last edited by jokin; 03-10-2014 at 10:55 AM.

  21. #18
    Senior Member All-Star Winston Smith's Avatar
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    St Louis doesn't make a lot of mistakes and I would trust them over the Twins front office and most bloggers. Likely to turn out being a good signing.
    This comment brought to you from the Rosedale Mall studio by Hamm's Beer, brewed in the land of sky blue waters.

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  23. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    Heck, they gave up a proven MLB player for Worley and May.....this would be 100x better as an investment.
    I love Revere, don't get me wrong. I think he has great energy and potentially game changing speed. But his career slash line with the Twins was: .278/.319/.323. A .644 OPS does not "a proven MLB player" make.

    Point of Reference: Punto's career slash line with the Twins: .248/.323/.324; .648 OPS. Similarly good defense. Eerily similar overall. If the Twins were to trade Punto for May and Worley, before he became a free agent, how would you feel?

    (*) Revere has upside. My point was on the "proven" part. He is as proven as Punto.
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  24. #20
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    According to reports, he projects as a utility guy. No big loss.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

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