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Thread: Correia to the Braves?

  1. #61
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    Quote Originally Posted by twinsfan34 View Post
    I'm sorry, but that makes no sense whatsoever, by any respected publication or scout or anyone in the baseball industry. I understand we all have our biases, but THAT is crazy...

    The truth is a Twins Top 15-20 prospect is the equivalent to a Braves Top 3-8 prospect.

    This is why...

    The WORST pitching framing catcher in MLB, and a backup catcher, one Ryan Doumit, yielded Sean Gilmartin, who for 2013 publications, beginning with Minorleagueball was their #5 prospect. John Sickels worked for Bill James, he's solid. Bill Ballew, for Baseball America, had Sean Gilmartin as the #4 Braves prospect going into 2013. Bleacherreport had Gilmartin as #8 overall among Braves prospects. Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus, had Gilmart as #6 overall among Braves prospects. Fangraphs had him at #5 juts behind Lucas Sims entering 2013. Even the latest Baseball America rating of when Gilmartin was a Brave has him as #10.

    And I don't want to go Allen Iverson here, but "we're talkin about about a backup catcher, worst pitching framing in MLB, going to the NL (no DH). And he's horrible in in the OF too, for the Braves (#5 MLB, #4 BA, #8 BR, #6 BP, #5 Fangraphs) prospect.

    I don't think Gilmartin will amount to much, but who knows, he had (having) a good Spring Training.

    But the Braves, just not the same farm system league as the Twins. There's jr leagues and big leagues, the Braves have had a few great classes graduate with Heyward, Freeman, Kimbrel, and co, but this is 2014 and it's not the same type of impact talent there.

    Even the guy you name dropped, Jason Parks, has the Twins farm system as #1 for both impact talent AND depth. Meanwhile, he had the Braves at #24. It's not even close.

    Here's some other publications, and Keith Law, who you also named dropped, is here ranking the organizations:

    Organizational Rankings:
    Bleacher Report - Twins #1, Braves #21
    The Sporting News - Twins #3, Braves #27
    Prospect Digest - Twins #4, Braves #26
    ESPN, Keith Law - Twins #2, Braves #22
    Baseball Prospectus - Twins #1, Braves #24
    Baseball America - Twins #3, Braves #26


    So we actually have a Prospect who was in the Braves system, just as recent as 4 months ago (this past season) and who's now in the Twins system. And we have a number of major publications, scouts, etc. who've had a chance to place him in the Twins system with an appropriate ranking.

    And we have the disparaging difference in farm systems, yet a Twins top 10-15 prospect and Correia would yield a Braves Top 10-15 Prospect. Maybe on your Xbox or PS3 where you have "forced trades" initiated.

    Here's a another publication...
    The Twins #11 prospect is equivalent to the Braves #3 prospect.

    Twins
    2 - Buxton
    8 - Sano
    35 - Meyer
    61 - Stewart
    68 - Pinto
    84 - Thorpe
    107 - Rosario
    109 - Berrios
    173 - Harrison
    188 - Amaurys Minier
    213 - Sean Gilmartin
    262 - Trevor May
    296 - Max Kepler

    Braves
    47 - Sims
    83 - Benthancourt
    212 - La Stella
    230 - J.R. Graham
    267 - Salazar

    Aaron Gleeman, not an 'expert' or a professional scout, but definitely aware of major publication prospect ratings, has Gilmartin as #40 among Twins Prospects.

    Seth Stohs has Gilmartin somewhere around #19-#23 among Twins Prospects.

    The Publications go on and on. Maybe Gilmartin was at worst #10 among Braves Prospects...but, he's not ranked higher than (possibly) #19 among Twins Prospects.

    Baseball America's 2014 Prospect Handbook had Gilmartin as #10 among 2014 Braves Prospects. Gilmartin is a "45 Medium"...so if you glance over at Twins Prospects, again, just trying to put Twins-Braves Prospects on the same playing field...#14 (J. Pinto) and #15 (M. Tonkin) are "45 Medium" for the Twins...as are...#19 (Taylor Rogers)...then starting at #25 "45 High (risk)"...Travis Harrison, Niko Goodrum, Tyler Jones, Stuart Turner.

    And honestly, I wouldn't trade any of the Twins "45 Mediums" for Gilmartin.
    Rankings and lists are pretty. Look at what was on the Atlanta roster last year as homegrown talent versus what the Twins put out there as homegrown talent. Now compare and contrast. The top 30 prospects of the Twins may be rated higher but Atlanta seems to produce better quality.

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  3. #62
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Wise One View Post
    Rankings and lists are pretty. Look at what was on the Atlanta roster last year as homegrown talent versus what the Twins put out there as homegrown talent. Now compare and contrast. The top 30 prospects of the Twins may be rated higher but Atlanta seems to produce better quality.
    You are comparing Apples to Oranges here. You are comparing guys who haven't graduated to the Braves' system prior results. It's quite possible you are right (I hope note), but that won't be known for quite some time.

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    twinsfan34 (03-16-2014)

  5. #63
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    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    It's funny that the guy who's contract we all hated last year, we are now suddenly expecting to have good value. I'm not pointing fingers at anyone, because I too hated the contract, and I now too think he has some value.

    However, Correia does seem like the kind of pitcher (boring innings eater) who fans would hate to give up anything for, but managers would overpay for. Depending on the GM, there probably is some decent value under the right circumstances.
    He always had value. People hated it last year because he has such a limited ceiling, which is what he showed last season. You can find those guys every off season so why guarantee someone 2 years?

    As far as I can tell most people still think that was a bad signing. People aren't trying to trade him because they think he'll bring back anything significant but rather because he's guaranteed a rotation spot that could instead be used for [insert pitcher here].

    Last year people hated the second year and it looks to me like many still do.

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    twinsfan34 (03-16-2014)

  7. #64
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Wise One View Post
    Rankings and lists are pretty. Look at what was on the Atlanta roster last year as homegrown talent versus what the Twins put out there as homegrown talent. Now compare and contrast. The top 30 prospects of the Twins may be rated higher but Atlanta seems to produce better quality.
    Statistically, those are what you call independent events. And if you take a look at WAR created by draft class or international signings year by year, you won't find a correlation where one GM or team is likely to achieve success the next year.
    Last edited by twinsfan34; 03-16-2014 at 08:09 PM.

  8. #65
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    Quote Originally Posted by twinsfan34 View Post
    Statistically, those are what you call independent events. And if you take a look at WAR created by draft class or international signings year by year, you won't find a correlation where one GM or team is likely to achieve success the next year.
    What does the system year in and year out produce? Over time the Braves have put out a lot of talent. High level talent. You rip on the talent in the Braves system as inferior to the Twins. The level may be rated higher by websites, but the end product would appear to be much better coming out of the Braves. You all can be dismissive of that fact and change your debate. The prospect you have no idea of how good or bad they will be, or how they could help your club. Correa is viewed as a 5th starter. No prospect in return should have a rank. They should have potential.
    Last edited by The Wise One; 03-16-2014 at 08:55 PM.

  9. #66
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oxtung View Post
    He always had value. People hated it last year because he has such a limited ceiling, which is what he showed last season. You can find those guys every off season so why guarantee someone 2 years?

    As far as I can tell most people still think that was a bad signing. People aren't trying to trade him because they think he'll bring back anything significant but rather because he's guaranteed a rotation spot that could instead be used for [insert pitcher here].

    Last year people hated the second year and it looks to me like many still do.
    About 85 pitchers a year pit more than 170 innings. If you are trying to get into and through the playoffs, the innings he can pitch are valuable. Of those 80 some pitchers, maybe 15 will have a worse ERA than Correa does. He will rarely win you a game. Thus the value he has to a team is as a depedendable fill in. He is better than what you have in the minors so you go get him. A team would have to be at plan C to look at Correia. That shouldn't be happening in spring training.

  10. #67
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Wise One View Post
    About 85 pitchers a year pit more than 170 innings. If you are trying to get into and through the playoffs, the innings he can pitch are valuable. Of those 80 some pitchers, maybe 15 will have a worse ERA than Correa does. He will rarely win you a game. Thus the value he has to a team is as a depedendable fill in. He is better than what you have in the minors so you go get him. A team would have to be at plan C to look at Correia. That shouldn't be happening in spring training.
    I think we're agreeing here for the most part. I would just amend what you said slightly to, "His value is dependent upon the needs of the team." In the circumstance you describe, he has value as a fifth starter trying to push the team into the playoffs. A year of Marginal Pitcher A throwing 130 innings of 5+ ERA could lead to an October staying home.

    On the other hand, to a team like the Twins who aren't going to the playoffs either way, his innings aren't particularly valuable because they aren't enough to push the team to contention and he won't be here when the Twins are ready to contend. He is merely a place filler. Which is fine, unless he starts to block players, like Gibson or Meyer (I'm not saying he is at the moment), who actually will be here when the Twins are looking to contend again.

    How it turns out remains to be seen. As I've stated I highly doubt the Twins are going to trade him after spending so much money trying to bring in veteran pitchers and were still in the market for additional arms as little as a week ago.

  11. #68
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oxtung View Post
    I think we're agreeing here for the most part. I would just amend what you said slightly to, "His value is dependent upon the needs of the team." In the circumstance you describe, he has value as a fifth starter trying to push the team into the playoffs. A year of Marginal Pitcher A throwing 130 innings of 5+ ERA could lead to an October staying home.
    While I know not many here are familiar with guys like David Hale, the Braves have guys in place that will certainly put up a league average line at #5. Frank Wren has also said that the team is done acquiring "veteran" players in multiple quotes after the Beachy news, so I'd wager to say if he's going to make a move, it will be for someone like Carlos Carrasco or Randall Delgado, guys out of options that could start the season in the rotation and either win the spot outright or do well moving to the bullpen. I would say that rather than Correia, he'd have some interest in Diamond, Worley, or Deduno if they're not going to make the squad, but I don't see Diamond or Worley transitioning well to a bullpen role, and Deduno has enough unknowns in his line that he may not do well with that transition either.
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  12. #69
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    Quote Originally Posted by Major Leauge Ready View Post
    A lot of people said that about Drew Butera too.

    Exactly. Butera netted an A ball reliever that doesn't rank in the Twins top 30 as far as I have seen. That's the kind of value that KC has.

  13. #70
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    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    Exactly. Butera netted an A ball reliever that doesn't rank in the Twins top 30 as far as I have seen. That's the kind of value that KC has.
    Sulbaren had better numbers than Berrios last year, at the same level and at the same age. And he's bigger and left handed. I've seen him in some top 20 lists. I personally have him ranked 14th.

    Unfortunately, he came into camp overweight, so that's a concern. But he was a good get for Butera. I wouldn't think we'd get that much for Correia.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

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