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Thread: Will this team be the worst of the last four years?

  1. #61
    Twins Moderator All-Star ChiTownTwinsFan's Avatar
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    Moderator note: We are ALL fans for better and for worse. Let's stop that aspect of this debate, please, and back to the discussion of this year's team ... better or worse than last year?
    Last edited by ChiTownTwinsFan; 03-23-2014 at 09:32 PM.

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  3. #62
    Senior Member All-Star Boom Boom's Avatar
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    Side note - can we refrain from arguing who is a better fan than whom?

    Looks like ChiTown beat me to that.

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    Senior Member All-Star crarko's Avatar
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    The more interesting question is: will this be the worst team of the next four years?

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  6. #64
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    You keep implying their line is "in the middle" as a way to suggest a range of likely record. It's in the middle of betting sentiment. These are not the same thing.
    Ugh. And the betting aggregate is generally in line with predictions. Seriously, Levi. Don't miss the forest for the trees.

  7. #65
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Ugh. And the betting aggregate is generally in line with predictions. Seriously, Levi. Don't miss the forest for the trees.
    I'm not, you're using it as evidence for your sentiment and it isn't. The worst part is you're giving the same lecture many did last year about how awful people are for being pessimistic because "they just have to be better".

    Well, no, they don't and the pessimist label is too often thrown around as a way to diminish a legitimate opinion.

    I see an awful defense, an awful offense, and a bullpen I worry about regressing. It may very well be the worst of the bunch.

  8. #66
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    My bet coincidentally was placed today in Vegas. I bet the over (73 wins, maybe).
    Five main reasons: Worley, Diamond, Hernandez, DeVries, and Walters.

  9. #67
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    I'm not, you're using it as evidence for your sentiment and it isn't. The worst part is you're giving the same lecture many did last year about how awful people are for being pessimistic because "they just have to be better".
    I'm not arguing they have to be better as a team. I'm saying it will require disaster to be worse than 2011, which happens to be the point of the thread.

    And it requires a lot of pessimism to believe this team is worse than the 2011 squad.

  10. #68
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    I'm not arguing they have to be better as a team. I'm saying it will require disaster to be worse than 2011, which happens to be the point of the thread.
    The disaster may have already happened in thinking Suzuki, Bartlett, and Kubel represented enough help for the offense.

    We're three years running in which these always-wrong pessimists have been right, despite any mountain-top preaching to the contrary. At this point, I think we're about 66 wins again, but I wouldn't rule out 100 losses given this roster and its depth. I also wouldn't begrudge anyone who did.

  11. #69
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    Didn't they outperform their pythag by 5-8 games? I am still going with "no", not the worst of the last 4 years, but I still think they are looking at 90 losses, again. Pretty depressing, with Sano out....and now not likely to start up here next year either. The defense might be the worst it has ever been, if you think this is a fly ball pitching staff and Willingham will play in the OF.....that's a lot of extra hits/runs.
    Add in Arcia, Presley and Kubel to that OF mix, and in the immortal words of Gardy, circa 2011: "...that's scary.....scary."

    But I'm trying to stay optimistic and say that the team is hitting rock bottom as we speak..... and I'm sticking with my 70-74 number with the starting pitching lowering it's ERA by around 1 run/game. Why, you ask? There were 49 one run games in 2013 and 16 extra inning games. With an improved rotation and some rookie help on the way, the bullpen will be less taxed, meaning shooting for giving up one less run/game gives you many more chances to win 4-9 more close games in 2014 than the 24 won in 2013. And might I add to that, the SOS of this year's schedule is essentially the same as last year's, with Detroit possibly coming a little back to the pack in the Central.

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    Twins Moderator MVP USAFChief's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by birdwatcher View Post
    My bet coincidentally was placed today in Vegas. I bet the over (73 wins, maybe).
    Five main reasons: Worley, Diamond, Hernandez, DeVries, and Walters.
    Some of those same names were used as justification at this time last year for why the Twins couldn't be worse in 2013, no?

    Personally, it matters little to me whether the Twins lose 100 games or 92. While losing 92 would technically be better than the last three years, it wouldn't feel much if any different to me, and coming on the heels of three 90+ loss seasons, would probably feel worse, because there have now been multiple offseasons to fix the problems, yet where are we?

    And for my money, it's going to take an extraordinary combination of positive answers to questions with mostly negative possible answers for this team not to lose 90+ again.
    Every post is not every other post. - a wise man

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    Morneau, Doumit and a bunch of other outfielders that are available in AAA were the losses from the offense. Pinto could provide what Morneau did last year. If the rest maintain where they were at and Hicks hits better the offense should not be any worse than last year. Pitching staff is better. It might mean that they lose closer games, it might mean a better team. The one thing that is certain is nothing. There is a big pile of ifs. If a few things go bad, they could lose 100. If everything breaks to the good, they could be .500.
    That everything is Hughes, Pelphry, Nolasco pitch like middle of rotation pitchers, Gibson gets there by mid season, Arcia, Hicks and Pinto are the real deal, Danny Santana gets there by mid season, and one of Collabello or Parmelee steps forward or the Twins pick up an above average player to fill that role like they did with Shannon Stewart. One can be optimistic until cold reality hits.

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    Quote Originally Posted by USAFChief View Post
    Some of those same names were used as justification at this time last year for why the Twins couldn't be worse in 2013, no?
    no. Diamond and Devries were on the DL by the start of the season. Hernandez and Walters were in AAA

  18. #73
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    Why does everyone assume improvement? Haven't we seen time after time that lots of players regress? While Dozier was statistically average last season, he could very well go the way of Plouffe. Pinto could very well go the way of Parmelee. Swarzak very easily could go the way of Tony Fiore. Some are likely to regress, some will probably improve.

    Everyone also seems to assume better health for Mauer. I will believe it when I see it. He is not exactly the model for endurance. People also seem to assume his statistics will automatically get better by moving to first base. I don't think that's a given by any means. He's now on the wrong side of 30, much like Willingham, Suzuki, and Kubel if he makes the team. Suzuki could be a Mike Lamb signing.

    That's a lot of "coulds" and "maybes". Hopefully we see some measurable improvement out of more guys than not but it's not unthinkable that we a lot of guys could regress.

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  20. #74
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    I see an awful defense, an awful offense, and a bullpen I worry about regressing. It may very well be the worst of the bunch.
    I'm with you on the defense, but primarily the OF, the IF won't be too bad. No queston the offense stands a good chance to be worse. But the silver lining in the bullpen- and while I concur there may be some regression from last year's crew- is that there is immediate available alternative help at the ready---and Gardy has gone public in even maybe adding Meyer to that mix of good young arms like Tonkin champing at the bit in AAA and AA. Not only that, but consider:

    1) Signing Guerrier could end up being a shrewd move on a healthy bounceback,

    2) If I was Antony, I'd be ringing Jose Mijares' agent about a minor league deal as a backup plan for the LOOGY role, plus there are bound to be a couple more guys available for free next week.

    3) Speaking of LHB pitching dominance, Deduno in an RP role is intriguing. Consider this 2012-2013 record of all qualifying pitchers against LHB, this is some pretty lofty company to be ranked #3 in this list-

    1) Cliff Lee 1.56 ERA/98 IP
    2) Jose Fernandez 1.91 ERA/89 IP
    3) Samuel Deduno 2.04 ERA/111 IP
    4) Jered Weaver 2.20 ERA/208 IP
    5) Kris Medlen 2.42/171 IP
    6) Gerrit Cole 2.58/52 IP
    7) Matt Harvey 2.59/125 IP
    8) Justin Verlander 2.67/263 IP
    9) Johnny Cueto 2.69/137 IP
    10) Matt Cain 2.74/130 IP
    Last edited by jokin; 03-23-2014 at 10:56 PM.

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  22. #75
    Twins Moderator All-Star ChiTownTwinsFan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by notoriousgod71 View Post
    Why does everyone assume improvement? Haven't we seen time after time that lots of players regress? While Dozier was statistically average last season, he could very well go the way of Plouffe. Pinto could very well go the way of Parmelee. Swarzak very easily could go the way of Tony Fiore. Some are likely to regress, some will probably improve.

    Everyone also seems to assume better health for Mauer. I will believe it when I see it. He is not exactly the model for endurance. People also seem to assume his statistics will automatically get better by moving to first base. I don't think that's a given by any means. He's now on the wrong side of 30, much like Willingham, Suzuki, and Kubel if he makes the team. Suzuki could be a Mike Lamb signing.

    That's a lot of "coulds" and "maybes". Hopefully we see some measurable improvement out of more guys than not but it's not unthinkable that we a lot of guys could regress.
    By that same logic why is it not unthinkable that we could see a lot of guys not regress, too. It's just the other side of the same coin. Frankly, I don't know what to think at this point so I'm going with my old standard of hoping for the best, but preparing for the worst. It's anyone's guess at this point. But you asked the question, and the answers we've seen is that some think yes and some think no. And the truth is we won't know until the end of September.

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  24. #76
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    Quote Originally Posted by old nurse View Post
    Morneau, Doumit and a bunch of other outfielders that are available in AAA were the losses from the offense. Pinto could provide what Morneau did last year. If the rest maintain where they were at and Hicks hits better the offense should not be any worse than last year. Pitching staff is better. It might mean that they lose closer games, it might mean a better team. The one thing that is certain is nothing. There is a big pile of ifs. If a few things go bad, they could lose 100. If everything breaks to the good, they could be .500.
    That everything is Hughes, Pelphry, Nolasco pitch like middle of rotation pitchers, Gibson gets there by mid season, Arcia, Hicks and Pinto are the real deal, Danny Santana gets there by mid season, and one of Collabello or Parmelee steps forward or the Twins pick up an above average player to fill that role like they did with Shannon Stewart. One can be optimistic until cold reality hits.
    Add Alex Meyer and Michael Tonkin to this list of "if" reasons to stay positive. I think you're correct that they can pick someone up for the OF and a Bat, only with the cold reality striking the Twins FO in the face this week, it could very well happen as soon as next week.

  25. #77
    Pitching is much better, Gibson will be the 5, yes the offense is going to be bad, but they were pretty terrible last year. Defensively its the same guys for the most part, they aren't great but they are pretty good up the middle, and below average on the corners other than Joe. You'll have to remember, that the pitchers are going to miss more bats than last year, probably twice as many from the starters did last year, just with Ricky and Phil, and Gibson will probably be at 6.5-7 K/9 by mid season if not right up there with Ricky and Phil. If Gibson and get to or maybe just below league average and Ricky and Phil stay at their career numbers, you will probably have 400-450 k's just from those three, where as last year you didn't have that from the starters and didn't have much more then that from the pitching staff as a whole. As good as Perkins is, a closer should never come close to leading the team in strikeouts,

  26. #78
    Senior Member Triple-A Reider's Avatar
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    On paper the starting rotation and bullpen have more depth this year. 4 capable starters plus Gibson, who will hopefully pitch good enough to stay with the club this year. There are concerns about the bullpen, but with the addition of Deduno and possibly Tonkin, the Twins should be just fine. I hope Burton doesn't take another step backwards, but there's more depth this year, so it's not overly concerning to me.

    Defensively, it will be similar to last year. Respectable up the middle, but a bit weak on the corners. Joe Mauer will make the odd mistake at first, but he'll do just fine.

    The offense is the big question mark for me. I wasn't overly impressed with the hitting this spring training. It doesn't appear that the offense will be good this year, but if everyone hits the way they have in the past or the way many think they can hit in the future, this team could win more games than last year. Hitting would have to be down right awful in order for the Twins to lose 100 games this year. Odds are, the Twins will finish with a record similar to the last 3 seasons.

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  28. #79
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    Last year's team collasped in September--finishing 4-20. While there were several reasons, it is reasonable to conclude that "fight of the fight had left the dog." Simply 'battlin' as they did the previuos 5 months should have added 4 wins--closing at 8-16. While a poor finish, that is far more typical of what happens in baseball for "a rough patch". Conclusion: Adding those four wins and another four wins would not indicate "a better team"--just one that that is more typical of losing teams in MLB.
    A big factor to guage this season's wins would be what did the othe other four teams in the division do to change their teams? A huge portion of the season is against division opponents. Changes in opponents will definately affect the season's total of wins.

    Summing up: the betting line is reasonable (71) because last year's team basically threw away September (would they do it twice?!) and Cleveland (maybe KC) won't have the same success as 2013. But, we shouldn't conclude that winning 71 indicates improvement, but simply the vagarities of statistics.

  29. #80
    Senior Member Triple-A VATwinsFan's Avatar
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    The better starting pitching will only mean more 3-1 and 2-0 losses and fewer 8-1 and 10-2 losses.

    They'll be fortunate to avoid 100 losses.

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