Minnesota Twins News & Rumors Forum
Page 8 of 12 FirstFirst ... 678910 ... LastLast
Results 141 to 160 of 231

Thread: Will this team be the worst of the last four years?

  1. #141
    I'll say it! This will be the best season in four years.

    The best rotation in four years, a healthy Maur, and one or two other contributers on offence will be enough for a 73 win season.

  2. These 3 users like Heimer's post and want to buy him/her a steak dinner:

    birdwatcher (03-24-2014), Cris E (03-26-2014), mike wants wins (03-25-2014)

  3. #142
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
    Posts
    2,271
    Like
    241
    Liked 461 Times in 290 Posts
    Blog Entries
    1
    Quote Originally Posted by LaBombo View Post
    Nowhere did I say anything about the odds of their failing, at least that I can remember. Just pointed out that if guys like Hicks, Arcia, and Gibson don't produce this year that the Twins shouldn't be counting on getting much from them in the future.

    Oddly enough, though I'm part of the bearish, 'bad fan' crowd, I consider Dozier's 2013 a success, and won't be terribly disappointed if he doesn't improve on it. And Pinto doesn't belong in the group of young players I was referring to either, because he didn't do anything last year to raise concerns about his future ceiling. He did just the opposite.

    As for the other three, Gibson pitched well in AAA and Arcia hit righthanders enough to have value in that role, so anticipating better seasons from them seems reasonable. Still not sure why people would feel more optimistic about Hicks this year compared to the start of last season; he gained valuable experience last year but looked bad doing it, so that seems like a wash at best to me.
    I'm not one to entertain highly unlikely scenarios. The odds of one of those players failing are decent. The odds of all those players failing in the same year are slim.
    Last edited by cmathewson; 03-24-2014 at 04:33 PM.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

  4. This user likes cmathewson's post and wants to buy him/her a steak dinner:

    birdwatcher (03-24-2014)

  5. #143
    Twins News Team MVP
    Posts
    6,725
    Like
    870
    Liked 847 Times in 543 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    Also, all these arguments sound the same:

    Nolasco/Hughes/Pelfry/Gibson just HAVE to be better than Hendricks, Hernandez, Albers,Worley

    vs.

    Correia/Pelfrey/Diamond/Deduno/Worley just HAVe to be better than Devries, Vasquez, Hendricks, Blackburn, and Liriano

    How'd that turn out? 4.77 vs. 4.55 - technically right and utterly meaningless.
    Based on recent history the following results should be possible and not unexpected:

    Nolasco- 4.00 ERA 3.1 fWAR 210 (3.67/yr avg. WAR)
    Hughes- 4.33 ERA 1.8 fWAR ("Out of New York" effect)
    Correia- 4.25 ERA 1 fWAR (Contract year, 4 months w/ Twins)
    Pelfrey- 4.19 ERA 3 fWAR (2013- 2.1 WAR/3.99 FIP/3.59 ERA in July/Aug)
    Gibson- 4.50 ERA 1.1 WAR (Like Pelf, 2nd year back from TJ)
    Meyer- 4.20 ERA 1.3 WAR (That's the usually negative ZIPS projection)
    Deduno- 3.75 ERA 0.7 WAR (Spot start stats only)

    That's 12 fWAR from your top 7 starters.

    Nolasco- 210 IP/33 GS
    Hughes- 185 IP/30 GS
    Correia- 125 IP/20 GS
    Pelfrey- 190 IP/31 GS
    Gibson- 110 IP/20 GS
    Meyer- 110 IP/20 GS
    Deduno- 50 IP/8GS

    2014 SP totals- 980 IP/162 GS/~4.25 ERA/12 WAR

    2013 SP totals- 871 IP/162 GS/5.26 ERA/4.6 WAR

    Obviously, that's potentially more than just technically right. And the extra 109 IP eases a lot of stress on the bullpen from which you expect significant regression (overall, with the potential new arms coming in, I disagree with that conclusion). No pie in the sky career years in this forecast and no starts from the PJ Walters/Cole DeVries/Liam Hendriks/Pedro Hernandez fringy crew.

  6. These 2 users like jokin's post and want to buy him/her a steak dinner:

    birdwatcher (03-24-2014), DocBauer (03-24-2014)

  7. #144
    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
    Posts
    4,365
    Like
    413
    Liked 808 Times in 509 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    MODERATOR NOTE:

    Let's put this good fan/bad fan meme to rest please.

    Thanks you.

  8. These 3 users like diehardtwinsfan's post and want to buy him/her a steak dinner:

    ashburyjohn (03-24-2014), birdwatcher (03-24-2014), twinsnorth49 (03-24-2014)

  9. #145
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
    Posts
    4,818
    Like
    175
    Liked 660 Times in 372 Posts
    Well, there you have it. If you only cook the books so every pitcher has a slightly better than average year, there are no injuries, and luck is neutral we'll win 68/69 games.

    I'm not sure that had the effect on my pessimism you intended.

  10. This user likes TheLeviathan's post and wants to buy him/her a steak dinner:

    mike wants wins (03-25-2014)

  11. #146
    Twins News Team MVP
    Posts
    6,725
    Like
    870
    Liked 847 Times in 543 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    Well, there you have it. If you only cook the books so every pitcher has a slightly better than average year, there are no injuries, and luck is neutral we'll win 68/69 games.

    I'm not sure that had the effect on my pessimism you intended.
    The books weren't cooked, the numbers cited are reasonable estimates, based on projections and career averages and trends. And you will determine, and are entitled to, your own level of pessimism, but your previous comparison to the current Starting Rotation was more than a little "out there". And as Christy stated, the depth beyond the first 7 pitchers is way better than last year, with Diamond, Johnson, May and a couple other actual prospects in AAA who may well emerge.

    So in answering the OP's topic, the Rotation stands a good chance to be the best in the last 4 years, and provides evidence for a win total in the low 70's (which is my prediciton).
    Last edited by jokin; 03-24-2014 at 05:16 PM.

  12. These 2 users like jokin's post and want to buy him/her a steak dinner:

    Cris E (03-26-2014), DocBauer (03-24-2014)

  13. #147
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Joe A. Preusser's Avatar
    Posts
    723
    Like
    121
    Liked 165 Times in 95 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    Couldn't I, by your same logic, argue the fact that I continue to support the team and care about it inspite of my belief that the team won't be very good makes me a better fan? After all, I don't have to pretend it's all roses to care, right?

    Or, better yet, maybe we're all fans and trying to maintain a superiority about your fandom is juvenile and unnecessary.

    I'd prefer to put this to rest, but I have to point out that some sort of "fan hierarchy" was hardly the main point of my initial post. I griped about all the pessimism and then wrote a longwinded rundown of why I thought the Twins wouldn't be worse than last year. Another poster chose to take one line out of 50 an make an issue of it so I responded. Regardless, I am ready to talk about something else if you all are.

  14. #148
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
    Posts
    2,271
    Like
    241
    Liked 461 Times in 290 Posts
    Blog Entries
    1
    I would characterize it as glass-half-empty fans vs glass-with-a-mouthful-of-backwash fans. I have only seen one glass-half-full post.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

  15. #149
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
    Posts
    4,818
    Like
    175
    Liked 660 Times in 372 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    So in answering the OP's topic, the Rotation stands a good chance to be the best in the last 4 years, and provides evidence for a win total in the low 70's (which is my prediciton).
    I haven't denied that the rotation is likely a little better, but it's hardly a given. Those two things are very different statements.

    Even after you gave virtually every starter a full season projection (no injuries) and better than career-norm performances (certainly better than the previous few years in almost all cases) - you still barely account for the team's luck last year. I don't know how that can lead to optimism unless you believe the team will be 5 games lucky again next year.

    You're entitled to that, maybe their bullpen is the key to that, but I wouldn't bank on it.

  16. #150
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer
    Posts
    600
    Like
    100
    Liked 287 Times in 145 Posts
    This thread reads like a contest to see who can be the most bleak, as if it's some kind of race to the bottom of projecting win totals. I have no idea if the Twins will be better or worse. I think the pitching will be notably better. I think the offense will be slightly better. I just don't see so many terrible offensive seasons from last year repeating themselves this year.

    Call me unrealistic, call me overoptimistic, call me inattentive to what's happened during Spring Training (which would be true because Spring Training stats and results are meaningless).

    I'm just really, really excited that Twins baseball is almost here again!

  17. These 7 users like Beezer07's post and want to buy him/her a steak dinner:

    70charger (03-24-2014), birdwatcher (03-24-2014), ChiTownTwinsFan (03-24-2014), cmathewson (03-24-2014), Cris E (03-26-2014), diehardtwinsfan (03-24-2014), DocBauer (03-24-2014)

  18. #151
    Twins Moderator MVP ashburyjohn's Avatar
    Posts
    8,672
    Like
    2,651
    Liked 3,289 Times in 1,749 Posts
    Blog Entries
    28
    Quote Originally Posted by Beezer07 View Post
    This thread reads like a contest to see who can be the most bleak
    Moderator's note: There is also a fair amount of personal sniping that needs to stop. Take the "you said" "no I actually said" bickering to PM if you must pursue it at all.

  19. This user likes ashburyjohn's post and wants to buy him/her a steak dinner:

    DocBauer (03-24-2014)

  20. #152
    Twins News Team MVP
    Posts
    6,725
    Like
    870
    Liked 847 Times in 543 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    I haven't denied that the rotation is likely a little better, but it's hardly a given. Those two things are very different statements.

    Even after you gave virtually every starter a full season projection (no injuries) and better than career-norm performances (certainly better than the previous few years in almost all cases) - you still barely account for the team's luck last year. I don't know how that can lead to optimism unless you believe the team will be 5 games lucky again next year.

    You're entitled to that, maybe their bullpen is the key to that, but I wouldn't bank on it.
    I responded to you specifically based on this "out there" statement:


    Also, all these arguments sound the same:

    Nolasco/Hughes/Pelfry/Gibson just HAVE to be better than Hendricks, Hernandez, Albers,Worley
    Of course, nothing is a given- I said there's "a good chance to be the best in the last 4 years", and of course injuries are a possibility, but as I demonstrated, the stats cited are completely within the realm of possibility, and the 6th and 7th starters offer much more upside in the event of injury.


    [you projected](certainly better than the previous few years in almost all cases)

    Nope, not true.
    Nolasco, projected lower than last year.
    Hughes, projected on a bounceback at slighly worse than his decent 2012 numbers.
    Pelfrey, projected lower than his 2013 July/Aug ERA and lower than his 3.99 FIP of 2013.
    Correia, projected slightly lower than last year- in a contract year.
    Deduno, projected basically the same as last year, pretty doable in a diminished SP role.

    Meyer, I straight up used the usually negative ZIPS projection.

    Gibson, you got me, I am optimistic that he can start 20 games with a 4.50 ERA.

    These are basic facts, grounded far more in reality than your comparison of this year's rotation to Hendricks, Hernandez, Albers, Worley.

    Even after you gave virtually every starter a full season projection (no injuries) and better than career-norm performances
    Nolasco, Hughes and Pelfrey were the only guys of whom I gave full-season projections. Correia will be gone by the deadline and Gibson and Meyer will llikely be up and down, with Deduno maybe getting 8 spot starts. Pitching is at least 70% of the game, and you can account for, and make a lot of, your own luck by simply keeping your team in more ballgames. This SP group is far more likely to do that than any time in the last 4 years. And yes, that improvement will resound to the BP, for which there's little reason to think that, as a complete group with new additions, that they can't be as good as last year, or even a little more.

  21. #153
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
    Posts
    4,818
    Like
    175
    Liked 660 Times in 372 Posts
    jokin - you literally projected them all but Hughes to be better than their career averages and for none of them to get hurt. It's not unrealistic, but it's clearly optimistic. The point being, even granting that....the team is still marginally better unless they get lucky again next year. Even cooking the books on the optimistic side doesn't yield a real impressive result. That's the issue.

    My post was just a comical comparison of how we keep hearing the same arguments about how the guys replaced the previous year will make the team way better. We heard it "had" to happen last year too and it didn't because optimistic projections insist on ignoring injuries and assume progression, not regression or the unanticipated.

    I think it'll probably be a bit better, I'm just dubious of how much until several of these guys show that they are an actual upgrade.

  22. #154
    Senior Member Triple-A DocBauer's Avatar
    Posts
    451
    Like
    215
    Liked 172 Times in 97 Posts
    Blog Entries
    10
    My takes, FWIW.

    They play 'em for a reason. All 162 of them. There are big surprises every year, players and teams, both positive and negative. I am excited, very excited, for the future of our beloved team over the next few seasons based on the talent currently on the roster, knocking on the door, and coming down the street a year or two away from knocking. Realistically, if HALF of the Twins top 20 prospects fall by the wayside, the other 10-ish, with youngsters up now, the Twins will still be putting an exciting, quality and competitive team on the field soon. (Select trades and FA's could supplement as well)

    But to THIS season.

    Consider me an optimist or glass half full fan. I love my team to perform well in ST, make a statement, and get the world excited. But history has shown over and over again than records in ST are meaningless for far too many reasons to even delve in to. Many are the teams to have positive and negative ST records, only to reverse said numbers when the season plays out.

    Not getting too involved in numbers and statistics, which can be played different ways, and just assuming health, (always a factor in ANY sport) the Twins bullpen should be quite solid this year. Overworked mightily, they still factored as a strong unit last season overall. They should be no worse this season, should be better when not so stretched, and would seem to have some decent reinforcements available in the minors. (Guerra, Tonkin, Ibarra, Hoffman, Johnson)

    Barring some total collapse, Nolasco, Hughes, Correia (at least to begin the season), Pelfrey (further removed from his TJ recovery) and Gibson make up the best rotation this team has had in at least a few seasons. And there is no doubt winning and competitiveness begins with SP. There are also future possibles such as Deduno, Meyer, Darnell, May and Summers possibly.

    There are some questions about the defense, but C should be solid, as well as 1B, SS, 2B and CF.

    The biggest question is probably the offense. To be honest, not to simplify or do a cop-out, but as stated before, it simply would be almost impossible to be worse than last year. Choices have to be made. Not talking all-star status, but for a rebuilding team, you either need a talented young player establishing himself at a spot, or a solid place holder for a more talented player about ready to take over, or a quality veteran producer helping your team win and provide an example, helping set a winning/competitive tone for the future.

    Some of those pieces are in place with Mauer, Dozier, Arcia and Hicks and Pinto (presumably and probably) with Suzuki offering an experienced and helping hand, and, Plouffe, optimistically, providing at least something decent offensively and defensively while waiting for the arrival of Sano. Floriman at SS is debatable and a very hot topic. But in the short term, he does provide the necessary defense needed. Hiding in the #9 hole with some speed and at least a little potential, things aren't all that bad.

    I feel the biggest problem offensively, to be honest, is LF and DH. If those two positions could be settled, I think we'd all feel a lot better about this team's offensive potential, and thus, competitive potential overall. There is some potential there, I suppose. But these are the two spots that truly concern me, and want to drain my half-full glass.

  23. #155
    Twins News Team MVP
    Posts
    6,725
    Like
    870
    Liked 847 Times in 543 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    jokin - you literally projected them all but Hughes to be better than their career averages and for none of them to get hurt. It's not unrealistic, but it's clearly optimistic. The point being, even granting that....the team is still marginally better unless they get lucky again next year. Even cooking the books on the optimistic side doesn't yield a real impressive result. That's the issue.

    My post was just a comical comparison of how we keep hearing the same arguments about how the guys replaced the previous year will make the team way better. We heard it "had" to happen last year too and it didn't because optimistic projections insist on ignoring injuries and assume progression, not regression or the unanticipated.

    I think it'll probably be a bit better, I'm just dubious of how much until several of these guys show that they are an actual upgrade.
    I don't think either one of us can anticipate or care to predict who will get injured. I did say that they now potentially have 7 guys who appear to have the ability to have real qualifications to be able to get major leaguers out, so there are reasonable alternatives should an injury occur. And as others have stated, the element of luck concering health is bound to change- especially when you improve your luck by having a few more veterans with a reasonable track record of good health.

    But let's talk about assumptions of regression. Pelfrey seems destined towards "regression", but positively, as does Hughes. I optimistically predicted some relative negative regression for Nolasco and Correia, just not all the way back to the mean. And clearly, I am granting far more value to recent results than career averages. And I'll plead guilty to assuming some realistic "progression" on the parts of both Gibson and Meyer (with the help of ZIPS and Steamer, I might add).

    And while my prediciton isn't an "impressive result", I never claimed it to be- it's clearly not where the Twins need to be if they hope to compete sooner rather than later, but most importantly, that is not the point made by the OP in topicing this thread originally. In that respect, we appear to be talking past each other, but there's a crystal clear point, which is one we all should agree upon, Vance Worley was designated as the "Ace" of the staff just about one year ago, the pitching staff had only one direction to go from there- I am much more optimistic about the 2 proven acquisitions and the 2 up-and-comers producing decent years than I was about Worley- even before his meltdown last season.
    Last edited by jokin; 03-24-2014 at 07:36 PM.

  24. #156
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    1,242
    Like
    105
    Liked 103 Times in 75 Posts
    Stating the obvious: the thread title of "Will this team be the worst of the last four years?" clearly sends a negative message and virtually begs for responses in kind, and simply winning all of 67 this season would qualify as the best of the four years--hardly an endorsement of success.

  25. #157
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Physics Guy's Avatar
    Posts
    610
    Like
    20
    Liked 43 Times in 32 Posts
    Blog Entries
    2
    Quote Originally Posted by old nurse View Post
    If a few things go bad, they could lose 100. If everything breaks to the good, they could be .500.
    Probably why the Vegas line is 70.5.

  26. #158
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer
    Posts
    739
    Like
    56
    Liked 122 Times in 77 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Physics Guy View Post
    Probably why the Vegas line is 70.5.
    70.5? Gee I hope their close, Vegas that is. I'll be surprised and very happy to see 70 wins but would put the house I won last year on the under this year.

  27. #159
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer
    Posts
    859
    Like
    465
    Liked 80 Times in 60 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Heimer View Post
    I'll say it! This will be the best season in four years.

    The best rotation in four years, a healthy Maur, and one or two other contributers on offence will be enough for a 73 win season.
    Whew. Finally. A GOOD fan.
    Last edited by birdwatcher; 03-24-2014 at 09:40 PM.

  28. These 2 users like birdwatcher's post and want to buy him/her a steak dinner:

    TheLeviathan (03-24-2014), twinsnorth49 (03-25-2014)

  29. #160
    Member Rookie
    Posts
    36
    Like
    5
    Liked 15 Times in 7 Posts
    Blog Entries
    1
    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    My post was just a comical comparison of how we keep hearing the same arguments about how the guys replaced the previous year will make the team way better. We heard it "had" to happen last year too and it didn't because optimistic projections insist on ignoring injuries and assume progression, not regression or the unanticipated.
    Coworker of mine told me that we'd have better weather in March than we did in February. But there it goes snowing again, and it's been cold. I guess by some metrics it was more temperate, but it was still awful weather. I'm skeptical about believing him when he says that April will be better still. He's such an optimist, I'm getting tired of hearing about it... next he'll say May and June look better too.

    Another comical comparison in which a poster's point it the brunt of the joke and the argument has been reduced to an absurd level.

    Jokin, I appreciate the effort you put into your predictions and showing your work. I'm substantially less rosy about Hughes and Nolasco than even your "realistic with a side of pessimism" projections are, but it's notable that even with those two performing worse than your projections, the rotation still improves over last year.

    Regarding the thread topic, I can selectively cite stats from the last 3 years along with non-statistic justifications that suggest this Twins team is in Wild Card contention, and possibly better if Nathan succumbs to injury and the Tigers stumble further. Dozier, Pinto, Willingham, Plouffe and Mauer all hitting like they have during the best stretches of their careers and Arcia and Hicks becoming the .280/30/100 and .250/15/OBP+SLG guys that various websites have projected as their ceilings would have this as a potent offense backed up by a rotation that's Top 5 in the AL if Nolsaco's performance starts to match his peripherals, Hughes and Pelfrey recover previous form and Gibson and Meyer achieve their ceilings.

    I'd call that only slightly less likely than everyone performing the worst they have in the last decade, all five major prospects fans are counting on flaming out and the Twins losing 100 games-thus becoming the worst team of the last 4 years.

    Another season in the low-to-mid 60s for wins is certainly plausible-though I'd like to see some more detail on exactly why these players will fail (as opposed to the more general "they'll be bad because players last year disappointed too", which I think is a fair characterization of some of what I've seen thus far).

    I'd be more tempted to put money on the over. Willingham and Mauer are the only ones at an age where diminished skills tend to drag stats down. Pinto and possibly Dozier are the only ones with performances last year that were substantially better than prior performance would indicate. The overall record in the last few years was sandbagged by atrocious Septembers with injuries and poor play. The variety of players [potentially] playing for their jobs and/or in contract years, as opposed to in the past (Dozier, Plouffe, Hicks, Hughes, Gibson, Willingham, Correia) should help mitigate that.

    I could see the team winning between 65-75 games without anything too abnormal happening, just within the bounds of reasonable outcomes for individual players. But a worse record or greater disappointment than 2011 would legitimately stun me.

  30. These 5 users like Hugh Morris's post and want to buy him/her a steak dinner:

    70charger (03-24-2014), Brock Beauchamp (03-25-2014), Cris E (03-26-2014), DocBauer (03-25-2014), UCLA_YANKEE_COLA (03-25-2014)

Page 8 of 12 FirstFirst ... 678910 ... LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
©2014 TwinsCentric, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
Interested in advertising with Twins Daily? Click here.