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Thread: Will this team be the worst of the last four years?

  1. #181
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    Quote Originally Posted by spycake View Post
    A systematic contract year boost has been proven to be mostly fiction, right? Plus, how did Correia do in his previous two "contract years"?



    Your projections: +109 IP, -1.00 ERA, +7.4 fWAR
    Royals SP, 2012 to 2013: +97 IP, -1.14 ERA, +4 fWAR

    The 2013 Royals SP turnaround was one of the most dramatic in recent memory, featuring the addition of TWO near-peak performances by two of the most durable SP in the game today (Shields and Santana), PLUS a full season from Guthrie, and also a great half-season renaissance from Bruce Chen too.

    You expect the 2014 Twins to basically match that IP/ERA improvement, and double the fWAR improvement? And that's not a rosy, best case forecast?

    .
    I think the year over year improvements look drastic on paper. But consider we are replacing Walters, Devries, etc. with Nolasco, Hughes, and Alex Meyer and that we started from a place of a historically bad rotation. The projection for next year may not even be league average.

    Here are my two cents:

    Nolasco Jokin has 4.00, which is 30 basis points worse than last year, 37 basis points better than his career average.

    Pelfrey Jokin has 4.19, which is 29 basis points better than his career

    Hughes, Jokin has 4.33, which is actually worse than his 4.24 career ERA if you take out his innings in the new yankee stadium.

    KC, Jokin has his 4.25 ERA from last year. That is 24 basis points better than his career.

    Meyer, Jokin has him at 4.20, which I think is high given his sub 3.00 ERA in the minors with a ton of K's.

    These maybe 10-20 basis points optimistic on three of the guys, not optimistic enough about Hughes and Meyer. Ultimately, if the top four guys match their career averages we have a 4.40 ERA or so. If we get 900 IP out of these guys we allow 85 fewer runs. If it is 4.60 we allow 65 fewer runs. If they average out to a 4.80 ERA, which is a collective 40 points higher than their career averages, we allow 45 fewer runs.

    The context of the conversation should move from will the rotation be better to how much the rotation will be better.

  2. #182
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by spycake View Post
    Not true! There is 4 in 9 odds that the injury would affect one of our current number 9 hitters, in which case the quantity of number 9 hitters stays constant with his replacement.

    It's one of the benefits of having so many number 9 hitters in your lineup!
    You're being sarcastic but there's a smidgeon of truth in this statement... With an offense this bad, there simply isn't much room to go down.

    It will take a key injury to Mauer, Dozier, or Arcia to make a significant impact on this offense comparative to last season.

    The rest of the guys were so bad that it simply doesn't matter. The Twins will pull another .600 OPS bat off the scrapheap and keep on truckin'.

  3. #183
    Senior Member All-Star 70charger's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ashburyjohn View Post
    Hey, I just thought of a swell strategy to make the team invulnerable to the injury bug!
    Free Drew Butera!!

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  5. #184
    Twins Moderator MVP USAFChief's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    I think the year over year improvements look drastic on paper. But consider we are replacing Walters, Devries, etc. with Nolasco, Hughes, and Alex Meyer and that we started from a place of a historically bad rotation. The projection for next year may not even be league average.Here are my two cents:Nolasco Jokin has 4.00, which is 30 basis points worse than last year, 37 basis points better than his career average. Pelfrey Jokin has 4.19, which is 29 basis points better than his careerHughes, Jokin has 4.33, which is actually worse than his 4.24 career ERA if you take out his innings in the new yankee stadium.KC, Jokin has his 4.25 ERA from last year. That is 24 basis points better than his career.Meyer, Jokin has him at 4.20, which I think is high given his sub 3.00 ERA in the minors with a ton of K's.These maybe 10-20 basis points optimistic on three of the guys, not optimistic enough about Hughes and Meyer. Ultimately, if the top four guys match their career averages we have a 4.40 ERA or so. If we get 900 IP out of these guys we allow 85 fewer runs. If it is 4.60 we allow 65 fewer runs. If they average out to a 4.80 ERA, which is a collective 40 points higher than their career averages, we allow 45 fewer runs.The context of the conversation should move from will the rotation be better to how much the rotation will be better.
    Am I reading this wrong...or are you planning on 900 innings from the top 4 starters?If so, that's not very realistic.
    Every post is not every other post. - a wise man

  6. #185
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    I think the year over year improvements look drastic on paper. But consider we are replacing Walters, Devries, etc. with Nolasco, Hughes, and Alex Meyer and that we started from a place of a historically bad rotation. The projection for next year may not even be league average.

    Here are my two cents:

    Nolasco Jokin has 4.00, which is 30 basis points worse than last year, 37 basis points better than his career average.

    Pelfrey Jokin has 4.19, which is 29 basis points better than his career

    Hughes, Jokin has 4.33, which is actually worse than his 4.24 career ERA if you take out his innings in the new yankee stadium.

    KC, Jokin has his 4.25 ERA from last year. That is 24 basis points better than his career.

    Meyer, Jokin has him at 4.20, which I think is high given his sub 3.00 ERA in the minors with a ton of K's.

    These maybe 10-20 basis points optimistic on three of the guys, not optimistic enough about Hughes and Meyer. Ultimately, if the top four guys match their career averages we have a 4.40 ERA or so. If we get 900 IP out of these guys we allow 85 fewer runs. If it is 4.60 we allow 65 fewer runs. If they average out to a 4.80 ERA, which is a collective 40 points higher than their career averages, we allow 45 fewer runs.

    The context of the conversation should move from will the rotation be better to how much the rotation will be better.
    As Chief pointed out, 900 innings is really optimistic but the point is a good one.

    This rotation, barring complete disaster, will be better than the 2013 version. It's almost inevitable.

    And chances are it's much better than the 2013 version without being anything better than league average.

  7. #186
    Twins Moderator MVP ashburyjohn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by USAFChief View Post
    Am I reading this wrong...or are you planning on 900 innings from the top 4 starters?If so, that's not very realistic.
    32 starts, 7 innings per... easy peasy.

  8. #187
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    And chances are it's much better than the 2013 version without being anything better than league average.
    At least by ERA, league average last year was 4.15. It's actually better than jokin's too-rosy estimate. That would require dramatic 2013 Royals style improvement. Median ERA was 3.99, an even more difficult achievement.

    When it all shakes down, Baltimore's 2013 staff isn't a bad target. No standout aces or special durability guys among the group, just a decent collection of pitchers, a few injuries, 4.57 SP ERA (albeit in a hitter's park?) was 12th in the league, 58 more IP and 40 fewer R than Twins SP.

    Of course, the reason Baltimore was a contender was their offense ranking #4 in runs scored (and #1 in HR). Still, such a staff gives us potential to be more of a run-of-the-mill bad team, rather than a truly awful squad. Baby steps!

  9. #188
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    As Chief pointed out, 900 innings is really optimistic but the point is a good one.

    This rotation, barring complete disaster, will be better than the 2013 version. It's almost inevitable.

    And chances are it's much better than the 2013 version without being anything better than league average.
    I meant 900 for the top 5. Gibson and Meyer splitting the 5th spot. 180 inning average. 4.40-4.80 seems doable for those two. I think Meyer's innings will be much better than that.
    Last edited by tobi0040; 03-25-2014 at 02:08 PM.

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  11. #189
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    As Chief pointed out, 900 innings is really optimistic but the point is a good one.

    This rotation, barring complete disaster, will be better than the 2013 version. It's almost inevitable.

    And chances are it's much better than the 2013 version without being anything better than league average.
    Right. And I simply tried to construct an "in-the-ballpark", grounded scenario for the Twins SPs, just to try to get close to 2013 AL SP league average ERA, which was 4.15. And I put Gibson and Meyer in the mix with low ball, conservative projections of what they might be capable of doing. So now you're 7 deep with guys that no one should be surprised if any one of them went out and had career year numbers unfamiliar in these parts, short of Scott Diamond's 3.54 season in 2012- if you lose, say, 2 guys to injury or ineffectiveness, you very well could have at least 2 guys who might be pitching above expectations in the Scott Diamond, mid-3s in ERA. And barring that, you have 2 guys in reserve who very well might pick up all of the slack and more from the guys who go down.

    I just think it's far more realistic to be optimistic than pessimistic about the Rotation- especially when you compare this year's opening day SPs to last year's- and why this point alone negates any notion that this could possibly be the worst Twins team in 4 years.

  12. #190
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    I am thinking 900 for the top 5. Gibson and Meyer splitting the 5th spot. 180 inning average. 4.40-4.80 seems doable for those two. I think Meyer's innings will be much better than that.
    I'm more optimistic on Meyer than the numbers I posted. I purposely low-balled my estimate, directly using the ZIPS projection for Alex. My purpose was to demonstrate that the Rotation had been upgraded to the point that no one should be surprised if it was able to accomplish near league average numbers, with room to be a little better, and with more upgrading to do in 2015 (I really liked that the Twins went after Garza and Sanatana, it gives me hope that the Twins recognize that their work in this area is not yet done).

    And 900+ innings is very realistic for this group, plus the spot starters, and obviously, that does wonders for bullpen effectiveness.
    Last edited by jokin; 03-25-2014 at 02:08 PM.

  13. #191
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ashburyjohn View Post
    You're looking for 10ish WAR from the bullpen? That seems largish.
    Yeah, I wasn't clear on that. Depending on where you look, the Twins got somewhere between 3-5 wins from luck last year that I think can be safely attributed to the outstanding bullpen.

    If that luck swings the other way - say rather than being +4 they are -4, you have an 8 game swing. So not a WAR thing as much as a swing of luck.

  14. #192
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    Zips projects the Twins to be tied for the 3rd worst SP in the majors this year......what do we mean by "league average"?

    http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=SP
    Lighten up Francis....

  15. #193
    Senior Member All-Star LaBombo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugh Morris View Post
    Regarding the thread topic, I can selectively cite stats from the last 3 years along with non-statistic justifications that suggest this Twins team is in Wild Card contention, and possibly better if Nathan succumbs to injury and the Tigers stumble further.
    Stumble further ? They improved by 5 wins in 2013, so is that like falling up the stairs? Or do you mean some of the lesser projections for their 2014 based on offseason moves.

  16. #194
    I nominate this for the Absurd Statement tournament. There is almost no way this team will end up being the worst of the past 3 years. It would take a several key injuries and KC, CLE, and CHW would have to have a lot of young guys step forward.

  17. #195
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    Quote Originally Posted by spycake View Post
    At least by ERA, league average last year was 4.15. It's actually better than jokin's too-rosy estimate. That would require dramatic 2013 Royals style improvement. Median ERA was 3.99, an even more difficult achievement.

    When it all shakes down, Baltimore's 2013 staff isn't a bad target. No standout aces or special durability guys among the group, just a decent collection of pitchers, a few injuries, 4.57 SP ERA (albeit in a hitter's park?) was 12th in the league, 58 more IP and 40 fewer R than Twins SP.

    Of course, the reason Baltimore was a contender was their offense ranking #4 in runs scored (and #1 in HR). Still, such a staff gives us potential to be more of a run-of-the-mill bad team, rather than a truly awful squad. Baby steps!
    And that's the point of this whole exercise. The "worst team in the last 4 years" notion just doesn't fit the facts on the ground. The undue pessimism just seems way off base with pitching being such a more important component to success than offense.

    Moreover, if Meyer can emerge this year as a legit #2 SP candidate going into 2015, and Gibson fully capable at the back-end, with Nolasco and Hughes continuing somewhere in the middle, now you're only looking at the need in acquiring one top-end arm at around Garza-level in FA next offseason to radically change this staff's ranking to near the top third in the AL by next year.
    Last edited by jokin; 03-25-2014 at 02:22 PM.

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  19. #196
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    Zips projects the Twins to be tied for the 3rd worst SP in the majors this year......what do we mean by "league average"?

    http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=SP
    FWIW, ZIPS is pretty well-established as the "Debbie Downer" of the projection services.

  20. #197
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    FWIW, ZIPS is pretty well-established as the "Debbie Downer" of the projection services.
    Just for the Twins? Are they only down on the Twins, or everyone? Do other systems predict them to be anywhere near the median?
    Lighten up Francis....

  21. #198
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    Zips projects the Twins to be tied for the 3rd worst SP in the majors this year......what do we mean by "league average"?

    http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=SP
    I will take the under on a few of these from ZIPS:

    Vance Worley 4.93 ERA, 46 IP. For some reason I don't think he will get that many innings with the Twins this year.

    Phil Hughes, they basically have his career ERA in there (4.50). He has a 4.24 ERA out of the new Yankee stadium.

    Not a huge KC fan, but I will go under 5.11. That is 60 basis points above his career.

    Gibson 5.04. I will go under that.

    Meyer is not even on the list and I expect 80-100 IP out of him in the 3's or very low 4's.

    BTW, can someone explain to me how WAR can differ so drastically from ERA? My understanding is that wins and losses were determined by runs scored versus runs allowed. Detroit has an ERA of 3.72 with 18.8 WAR. Rays have a 3.70 ERA with 12.3 WAR.

  22. #199
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    Quote Originally Posted by spycake View Post
    A systematic contract year boost has been proven to be mostly fiction, right? Plus, how did Correia do in his previous two "contract years"?
    In 2010, Kevin Correia posted his career-high xFIP right around 4.00 and his 2nd best-ever K/9 rate with the Padres, and was victimized by a near-career-low strand rate and higher BABIP. In 2012, with the Bucs, KC had his best ERA and ERA+ since 2009 with a career-best GB%. (I think that's what Terry Ryan was talking about when he said "better than his numbers indicate).

  23. #200
    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    FWIW, I'd note that I wouldn't expect to see Meyer pitching in Minnesota this season (except September). He is not on the 40 man roster and will only get placed on it if several guys "in front" of him fail (Johnson, Darnell, etc).

    That said, I'll echo what Jokin and others are saying. I have a tough time believing this team will be worse (baring a nastly bite from the injury bug) than the last 3 seasons. I get that there are unknowns, but there's a lot better depth to deal with them this season. I don't see the offense being great, but again I have a tough time believing that there won't be guys who improve.. and for various reasons. I think a win total in the 70s is very realistic, and a few breaks could see that creep up to the .500 mark. Not expecting .500, but I think it's a far more realistic bet this year than last.

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