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Thread: Will this team be the worst of the last four years?

  1. #221
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugh Morris View Post
    While I appreciate the point you're trying to make, I'm struggling to find a connection between Worley/Correia/Pelfrey and Hughes/Nolasco beyond "Starters who the Twins acquired over an offseason and people I disagree with were optimistic about".
    Perhaps I wasn't clear again. That's a common problem for me.

    I invoked the 2013 starter list specifically as a response to Jokin's 2014 projections, not to compare the pitchers themselves, but to show an example of how you cannot project a group by going through the list and assigning good but not great outcomes to each one. There are bad outcomes, injury and ineffectiveness, and they happen to virtually every team, all the time. I agree the 2012-2013 Twins had more bad outcomes than most, but that doesn't mean the 2014 Twins will be devoid of such outcomes. They should be improved. But this is nowhere near a league average starting staff unless we get a lot of luck.

  2. #222
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    Finally, I don't believe this staff or team will be the worst of the last 4 years. Even with a mostly stagnant offense, I think they should improve by a couple games as a mean projection, maybe they creep into the low 70's win range with some good fortune.

    It's probably more likely they lose 100 than win 81, however -- the starting staff is still full of high-variability guys with modest upsides (a couple coming off low ebbs on their variability), and we all know the sorry state of the offense.

  3. #223
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by spycake View Post
    Near league average, +8 wins from SP alone is a best-case scenario, however.
    Considering that last year's staff was roughly -3 WAR (including Corriea and Deduno's positive WAR), it's really not the best-case scenario.

    To get +8 wins from the rotation, we need less than 1 win over replacement level from each starter.

    That's far from a best-case scenario.

  4. #224
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Considering that last year's staff was roughly -3 WAR (including Corriea and Deduno's positive WAR), it's really not the best-case scenario.

    To get +8 wins from the rotation, we need less than 1 win over replacement level from each starter.

    That's far from a best-case scenario.
    This. I'd say +8 is the floor. +12 is about the best we can reasonably expect, giver or take.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

  5. #225
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Considering that last year's staff was roughly -3 WAR (including Corriea and Deduno's positive WAR), it's really not the best-case scenario.

    To get +8 wins from the rotation, we need less than 1 win over replacement level from each starter.

    That's far from a best-case scenario.
    That was in response to Jokin, who was using fWAR. Twins starters had 4.6 fWAR last year, and Jokin posited a mean-type projection of around 12. Hence the +8.

    12 fWAR from SP would be 2013 Royals, Reds, Pirates, White Sox, Rays, Athletics territory. Very good starting staffs, all. I think that's clearly best case for the 2014 Twins SP.

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    Quick link to Twins 2013 SP fWAR:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.asp...8&rost=0&age=0

    It would be hard for Pelf or Correia to improve on those 2013 fWAR figures, same with Deduno and whoever replaces Albers as a fill-in, and that's nearly 3/5 of the rotation right there.

    How it all translates to rWAR, I don't know. Does B-Ref have a nice table of SP only WAR by team, like this?
    http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.asp...ter=&players=0

    Would be great to get some context around that -3 rWAR total...
    Last edited by spycake; 03-26-2014 at 08:32 AM.

  7. #227
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Given this group's question marks (more talented and more likely, sure, but still huge question marks), +8 is most certainly not the floor for this staff, it's much lower than that.

    Or we might, once again, have an issue with people not understanding what a "floor" is in a projection. If you think worst case with this group is +8 WAR you are definitely overly optimistic.

  8. #228
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by spycake View Post
    That was in response to Jokin, who was using fWAR. Twins starters had 4.6 fWAR last year, and Jokin posited a mean-type projection of around 12. Hence the +8.

    12 fWAR from SP would be 2013 Royals, Reds, Pirates, White Sox, Rays, Athletics territory. Very good starting staffs, all. I think that's clearly best case for the 2014 Twins SP.
    Yeah, I think that's best case or close to it.

  9. #229
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by spycake View Post
    Quick link to Twins 2013 SP fWAR:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.asp...8&rost=0&age=0

    It would be hard for Pelf or Correia to improve on those 2013 fWAR figures, same with Deduno and whoever replaces Albers as a fill-in, and that's nearly 3/5 of the rotation right there.

    How it all translates to rWAR, I don't know. Does B-Ref have a nice table of SP only WAR by team, like this?
    http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.asp...ter=&players=0

    Would be great to get some context around that -3 rWAR total...
    I had to eyeball it. Ran through the starters from 2013, tallied their rWAR numbers.

    I really don't like fWAR for pitchers as a metric of past performance. Pelfrey was a bad pitcher for most of the year but because fWAR uses FIP (what should have happened if you remove fielding and uncontrolled elements from the equation), it makes him look like a productive starter.

    And that simply wasn't the case. If you want to suggest that Pelfrey should post a 2014 WAR somewhere around his 2013 fWAR numbers, I could get behind that argument.

    But in no way, shape, or form was he a 2 WAR player in 2013.

    Personally, for pitchers I use this:

    rWAR as a gauge of past performance because it's closer to what actually happened, luck be damned. fWAR as a predictive tool of future performance because it's closer to what should have happened if luck was removed from the equation.

    Of course, Pelfrey could post another good fWAR season but stink up the field. The outfield isn't exactly full of Willie Mays this season, just as it wasn't last season.

  10. #230
    Senior Member All-Star Sconnie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Of course, Pelfrey could post another good fWAR season but stink up the field. The outfield isn't exactly full of Willie Mays this season, just as it wasn't last season.
    I think you hit the nail on the head, the pitching is vastly improved over last season. The hitting is about even trading Morneau for Pinto+Suzuki so bad, but by no means historic. Fielding was bad last year, and the Twins took at step back, and I think fielding was a significant part of how bad the season was in 2013. Not having Mauer behind the plate will hurt. Mauer will need time to become a first baseman, he won't be Morneau's quality defensively right away, but might get there by ST 2015. Plouffe is still at 3rd which isn't horrible, but certainly not good either. If Willingham and Arcia are in the same outfield (and I've heard speculation about letting Presley go, yikes) it's still terrible. Hicks could be a very good center fielder, but can't make up for the Hammer. It sounds like Kubel will get a lot of time in the outfield as well. If Kubel or Parmellee are your defensive substitutions, that's ugly.

  11. #231
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    I had to eyeball it. Ran through the starters from 2013, tallied their rWAR numbers.

    I really don't like fWAR for pitchers as a metric of past performance. Pelfrey was a bad pitcher for most of the year but because fWAR uses FIP (what should have happened if you remove fielding and uncontrolled elements from the equation), it makes him look like a productive starter.

    And that simply wasn't the case. If you want to suggest that Pelfrey should post a 2014 WAR somewhere around his 2013 fWAR numbers, I could get behind that argument.

    But in no way, shape, or form was he a 2 WAR player in 2013.

    Personally, for pitchers I use this:

    rWAR as a gauge of past performance because it's closer to what actually happened, luck be damned. fWAR as a predictive tool of future performance because it's closer to what should have happened if luck was removed from the equation.

    Of course, Pelfrey could post another good fWAR season but stink up the field. The outfield isn't exactly full of Willie Mays this season, just as it wasn't last season.
    Can you, like, put this post on the homepage here? It's precisely accurate and important given the issue at hand (Mike Pelfrey!).

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