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Thread: Worley to the Pirates

  1. #81
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
    It's not as pitching starved as you might think. It was in 2011, when the best prospects in the system were recovering from TJ surgery. Since then, they've added several top 100 prospects while the others have recovered. It's now one of the best systems in baseball for pitching.
    All of their top pitching prospects except Meyer are many years away from being established major leaguers. Gibson seems to have recovered from TJ and capable of contributing in the next 3 years. Is there anyone else?

  2. #82
    Quote Originally Posted by Hugh Morris View Post
    Out of curiosity, under a hypothetical situation in which this review goes public, would you accept a conclusion from scouts and management that stated:

    "Players return from injury differently, and while we recognized there was a risk that Worley would not regain his earlier ability, that risk was outweighed by benefit of having a cost-controlled pitcher who put up anything similar to Vance's 2011 season"?

    Especially given that the other piece of the trade was a player 1 year removed from the top 100 prospect list who happens to be a relatively largebodied pitcher with the stamina to start... and with a potentially elite fastball who'd shown some progress in curbing control issues while lowering his flyball tendencies?
    That explanation would be a retroactive rationale for the deal and provide a surface level explanation for the failure ("Hey, things are a risk"), but it doesn't address the "what can we do to improve our results next time?" aspect of a good analysis. Other media imply that Ruben Amaro had reason to know that Worley's arm wasn't right and that advanced metrics show that much of his prior success was due to luck.

    This explanation also doesn't really explain why he was the opening day starter last year. Couldn't the team assess during spring training that he was eminently hittable? Or did they look past that, because, at the time, he showed a real desire to "get after it?"

    Further, at the time of the deal, Worley was presented as a sure thing and May was presented as a lottery ticket, whereas this explanation suggests that Worley was considered to be more like a Jared Burton lottery ticket - someone who was injured and had the chance to recover past success, albeit at a much larger cost than Jared Burton.
    "Where's the Crede?"

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  4. #83
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    I heard the Twins got more money for Worley than the Red Sox got for selling Babe Ruth. Babe Ruth!!

    How could the Twins say no to that kind of proposition from Pittsburgh?

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  6. #84
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    All of their top pitching prospects except Meyer are many years away from being established major leaguers. Gibson seems to have recovered from TJ and capable of contributing in the next 3 years. Is there anyone else?
    I like May a lot. I still have hope for Wimmers. I think Baxendale has a shot. I like Melotakis. Eades has a chance to move quickly. All of those guys are mid-to-back-of-the-rotation guys. But you need those guys too.

    The top prospects could move more quickly than young guys typically do. Berrios was supposed to be on the fast track. Thorpe could join him. Stewart is very advanced for his age. Gonsalves is a comer.

    Point is, they have more depth than they've had in a long time. They can afford to lose Worley and chalk it up as a failed experiment. When you can't find room for a guy in Rochester, it's no big loss.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

  7. #85
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    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    I heard the Twins got more money for Worley than the Red Sox got for selling Babe Ruth. Babe Ruth!!

    How could the Twins say no to that kind of proposition from Pittsburgh?
    Any word if the Pohlads will be using the cash to fund a Broadway play?
    Chris Hermann solves everything. hat tip to jokin

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  9. #86
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    All of their top pitching prospects except Meyer are many years away from being established major leaguers. Gibson seems to have recovered from TJ and capable of contributing in the next 3 years. Is there anyone else?
    Given the success of St. Louis with Wacha, I would expect the next wave to be here in about 2-3 years. Twins are well set up by TR signings to handle this. Meyer and or May will be here next year if not this year. Steward and possibly Thorpe or Berrios will be here in 2016 or 2017, that does not count either Kris Johnson or Gilmartin who might turn into something.
    Not all trades work out well, but by 2015 or 2016 Revere was going to be a 4th outfielder here and have very little value. You get what value you can, some trades are not going to work out.
    About the Pirates, Liarano is back to throwing mainly sliders(that is what wreaked his arm in the first place). That could mean he has 1-3 years before his next TJ surgery. Don Cooper (the White Sox pitching coach) is very highly respected in the baseball business. He could not fix Liarano.

  10. #87
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    I'm not hand ringing over this deal....and my comment about money was meant to be humorous, but that didn't work, obviously. I'm still mocking the trade for Worley and May....that is the one that hurts.
    Lighten up Francis....

  11. #88
    Quote Originally Posted by John Bonnes View Post
    I just don't get this. Maybe they just wanted to get him out of here? I have to say, I'll be shocked if we ever regret it. I don't know what is wrong with him, but it's really wrong.
    What I don't get is that not a single team felt he was worthy of a roster spot, yet many people here are upset we let him go. Do these posters know something that all of MLB does not know? Personally, I don't have even remotely close to enough information to judge this decision. The information we do have would suggest we are better off giving the AAA innings to the SPs already in the Rochester rotation.

  12. #89
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    Quote Originally Posted by GCTF View Post
    Any word if the Pohlads will be using the cash to fund a Broadway play?
    Off Broadway. But it's the classic "Springtime for Hitler."

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  14. #90
    Senior Member Double-A zenser's Avatar
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    I am a little surprised by this. I guess if and when an injury happens at the major league level or one of the 5 isn't performing, Deduno will move from the pen into the rotation. I guess Meyer or Diamond gets the 2nd and 3rd shot.

  15. #91
    I don't understand the deal but if this is the Twins worst personnel move of 2014 let's call it a win. He's turrble.

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  17. #92
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    I'm still mocking the trade for Worley and May....that is the one that hurts.
    Why does that hurt? Revere is a 4th OF (though a nice one at that) and May still has plenty of time/upside to pay off.
    "You miss 100% of the shots you don't take"- L. Harvey Oswald


  18. #93
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    Well, I said in that post that I don't think he is a 4th OF......and May is an unknown, as I said earlier in the thread. I am baffled people are so sure Revere isn't good.....he was 24 and had just put up 3 WAR when dealt......and, frankly, I'm tired of only being worried about 2015/16/17, and waiting for some future that keeps getting moved out a year.

    We don't agree. Revere has value imo, and you don't think so.
    Lighten up Francis....

  19. #94
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    Quote Originally Posted by GCTF View Post
    Any word if the Pohlads will be using the cash to fund a Broadway play?
    Bill Pohlad does produce Hollywood movies... maybe Worley will be indirectly responsible for funding the sequel "Another 12 Years a Slave"

  20. #95
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    A couple things to keep in mind:

    1. [trolling comment deleted]

    2. It was obvious the FO lost confidence in him. Cripes Dave St Peter blasted him at the Twins Daily event and he usually finds good things to say about everyone.

    3. Worley's performance proved he is roster filler at this point. He can be replaced by just about anyone in the organization or off the street. Why not try someone new? Its not like is someone got hurt they were ever going to call him up.

    4. He likely asked for the trade. While the Twins FO might be one of the worst in professional sports from just about every measure, the one thing they are not is petty. They aren't going to keep a guy they don't value against his wishes just because they can. They should get credit for that.

    5. Maybe they have their eye on someone else's roster to take the spot in Rochester through a trade or waiver pick up.

    In the end there was something odd about Worley the entire time he was here. Part of me thinks he was damaged goods coming over from Philadelphia. You don't go from being a promising young pitcher doing it in the majors to honestly maybe being the worst pitcher in the league in 6 months. Injury would be the most likely cause of that quick decline. The initial injury probably happened before he came over from Philadelphia.

    Maybe a new start with a new club helps him. Wouldn't be the first time a player got better after leaving the team.
    Last edited by ashburyjohn; 03-27-2014 at 10:49 AM. Reason: remove trolling comment

  21. #96
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by savvyspy View Post
    Part of me thinks he was damaged goods coming over from Philadelphia. You don't go from being a promising young pitcher doing it in the majors to honestly maybe being the worst pitcher in the league in 6 months. Injury would be the most likely cause of that quick decline. The initial injury probably happened before he came over from Philadelphia.
    We saw this with Blackburn. He had the feel of the sinker and was decent for a couple of years, on par with Worley's Philly time when you factor in league differences. As is common with guys who throw a lot of sinkers, he developed bone chips. The clean out didn't find anything else (at least anything they made known to the public), but he was a different pitcher after the clean out than before. I suspect it's three things:

    1. He never regained the forearm strength you need to throw his signature pitch. I.e. he was damaged goods. Perhaps there was some UCL fraying caused by the chips that went unreported and affected his ability to get on top of the ball and pitch "out front" to use Bert's terminology.

    2. He never was as good as his numbers suggested. Maybe the red flag was all those called third strikes. The way he threw the sinker, it was basically a trick pitch. Once people figured it out, they at least fouled it off.

    3. His long layoff led to losing the feel for his trick pitch.

    I suspect it was a combination, but his comments suggest it was mostly 1. He said "I couldn't get the ball down to save my life last year." That suggests it was more physical than mental. The fact that it is 18 months since the surgery and he still can't get the ball down means he might be done, at least until he has TJ surgery.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

  22. #97
    Twins Moderator MVP ashburyjohn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by savvyspy View Post
    1. The Pohlads ALWAYS need more money. Its their goal in everything they do.
    Moderator's note: we've taken a hands-off approach to this thread, but if posters are going to pull in the same old themes that are at best tangentially related then we'll need to clamp down before a real food-fight breaks out. Someone already took the trouble to start a thread on "accountability" which is where some of this present discussion could have gone, and if someone else really wants to talk about the Pohlads' fiscal policies it would be wise to do likewise.

  23. #98
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    Quote Originally Posted by LaBombo View Post
    Other pitchers with less potential, let alone far less actual success in the majors, have been given more chances by the Twins to prove themselves than Worley was. Good heavens, Kyle Gibson is the same age as Worley, has never succeeded in the majors, was terrible with the Twins last year... and he's been awarded the Twins' only open rotation spot.

    Also, doesn't it seem like there's almost no chance that Rochester doesn't rely on at least one pitcher this season who is the very definition of a non-prospect?
    This is where "scouting" comes into play. Gibson has good movement & sink on his pitches, Worley throws the straightest fastball Ive ever seen. I have no idea how he had almost 2 solid debut seasons with the Phillies.

    Gibson missed 1.5 years on TJ, also which the first year back also widely considered to be a throw away year. He was still much more effective than Worley was in the minors last year.

    I have 0 issues with letting Worley walk for nothing, obviously if a single other team thought so they would have moved even a C level prospect for him.

  24. #99
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    Quote Originally Posted by Trevor0333 View Post
    This is where "scouting" comes into play. Gibson has good movement & sink on his pitches, Worley throws the straightest fastball Ive ever seen. I have no idea how he had almost 2 solid debut seasons with the Phillies.

    Gibson missed 1.5 years on TJ, also which the first year back also widely considered to be a throw away year. He was still much more effective than Worley was in the minors last year.

    I have 0 issues with letting Worley walk for nothing, obviously if a single other team thought so they would have moved even a C level prospect for him.

    I agree in the games I watched Worley there was very little movement on the ball and the batters were squaring it up with ease. He needed better stuff to keep them off balance. Maybe if he starts throwing his slider more things will be better for him but the stuff I saw wasn't good enough to stay in MLB.

  25. #100
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    Worth remembering that Worley's "two seasons" of success in Philadelphia were actually both partial seasons, only about 130 IP each. And the last half of his 2nd partial season for Philly was pretty mediocre (65 IP, 5.68 ERA, 6.4 K/9) so his real run of quality MLB pitching was only about 1 full season. And he really didn't have that great of a K rate in the minors either -- his 2011 season (and early 2012) was really a standout in that regard.

    The Phillies have a very good recent track record with pitching -- none of Happ, Worley, or Kendrick were ever that highly regarded or "top 100" prospects, but I'll be darned if they didn't all become roughly league average starters in MLB (not an easy thing to do). And the Phillies successfully sold high on both Happ & Worley, and gotten some cheap innings eaten by Kendrick the last few years.

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