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Thread: Seth's 2014 Twins Hitter Projections

  1. #1
    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    Seth's 2014 Twins Hitter Projections

    I wanted to start a thread with my projections for the Twins Opening Day players. I think we'll see Chris Herrmann throughout the season, and there will be some other moves, but I just did projections for the Opening Day guys. Use this as a starting point for your own projections. Use some of the numbers as an over/under. Someone else can take a look and figure out how many runs this might mean the Twins will get.

    Let me know what you think, and feel free to get in your projections:


    Kurt Suzuki - .255/.310/.360, 20 doubles, 5 homers
    Josmil Pinto - .265/.320/.400, 20 doubles, 10 homers
    Joe Mauer - .305/.415/.485 – 45 doubles, 15 homers
    Brian Dozier - .275/.330/.400 – 35 doubles, 14 homers, 25 SB
    Trevor Plouffe - .265/.320/.430 – 25 doubles, 22 homers
    Pedro Florimon - .235/.295/.330 – 20 doubles, 8 homers, 20 SB
    Josh Willingham - .220/.310/.380 – 22 doubles, 16 homers
    Aaron Hicks – 240/.300/.390 – 28 doubles, 12 homers, 15 SB
    Jason Kubel - .250/.320/.410 – 25 doubles, 16 homers
    Oswaldo Arcia - .280/.330/.475 – 32 doubles, 27 homers
    Chris Colabello - .265/.340/.475 – 20 doubles, 12 homers
    Eduardo Escobar - .245/.290/.325 – 12 doubles, 2 homers
    Jason Bartlett - .260/.320/.320 – 10 doubles, 1 homer, 12 SB

  2. #2
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Steve Lein's Avatar
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    Suzuki: .240/.290/.345 (even this is pretty optimistic, I think)
    Pinto: .270/.320/.415, 12 HR's (like his track record enough to believe)
    Mauer: .345/.425/.490, 16 HR's (fresher legs = somewhat of a resurgence to mid-20's form)
    Dozier: .275/.340/.450, 15 HR's (2nd half of last year is the real Dozier)
    Plouffe: .260/.330/.450, 23 HR's (Maker or break year, I see a make)
    Florimon: .220/.280/.315 (I don't think he'll ever hit even remotely competently)
    Willingham: .245/.330/.415, 25 HR's (Will be better than last year, but not 2012 better)
    Hicks: .265/.335/.400, 14 HR's (Will take a big step forward compared to 2012)
    Kubel: .230/.280/.360, 9 HR's (I think he's done)
    Arcia: .270/.325/.450, 24 HR's (and will strike out 150+ times)
    Colabello: .260/.330/.450, 11 HR's (not enough playing time for high HR count)
    Escobar: .255/.310/.340 (will hit enough compared to Florimon to grab playing time at SS)
    Bartlett: .235/.290/.300 (phrase in relation to Bartlett all season will by "Why?!")

    Overall take: This is a bad lineup that won't improve much, if any, over 2013's scoring runs.
    Scouting Report: Tools - Power: 30, Hitting: 50, Arm: 60, Defense: 40, Speed: 40. "Line drive swing and shows good contact and on-base abilities. Double's power at his peak. Strong arm from 2B or the OF, stiff hands. Not a fast runner, but above average instincts on the bases. Skinny body doesn't look the part, but can sneak up on you. ACL surgery sapped much of his athleticism." (Probably)
    Spring Training Regular since 2011.

  3. #3
    Senior Member All-Star LaBombo's Avatar
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    Both are interesting sets. Would be thrilled if either turned out to be the 2014 reality.

    Both lists tend to reflect predictions that players will mostly either perform basically to zips/steamer/etc. projections, or else significantly better. Liked that Steve commented his, and it would be a nice addition if Seth could add a brief comment to just the predictions that fall well outside the range of fangraphs/BP projections.

    My Debbie Downer guess is that if you took the lower prediction for each player from between your two lists, you'd come up with a set that would be a little closer to the final totals.

  4. #4
    I can't see Mauer hitting below his career average when he should be healthier this year without the wear and tear of catching. I also can't see him hitting as high as 345 considering he has only done that twice in his career. I peg him around 330.

  5. #5
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    Eyeing the hitting projections the team would look like it would OPS somewhere around .700. One graph I saw estimates it would be between 650 and 700 runs. Essentially a league average offense

  6. #6
    COUNTDOWN TO CORRECT: Updated March 3-31
    (Totals are whats left from original prediction)

    Kurt Suzuki - 20 doubles, 5 homers
    Josmil Pinto - 20 doubles, 10 homers
    Joe Mauer - – 45 doubles, 15 homers
    Brian Dozier– 35 doubles, 14 homers, 25 SB
    Trevor Plouffe- 24 doubles, 22 homers
    Pedro Florimon– 20 doubles, 8 homers, 20 SB
    Josh Willingham– 22 doubles, 16 homers
    Aaron Hicks – 27 doubles, 12 homers, 15 SB
    Jason Kubel – 25 doubles, 16 homers
    Oswaldo Arcia – 32 doubles, 27 homers
    Chris Colabello – 19 doubles, 12 homers
    Eduardo Escobar – 12 doubles, 2 homers
    Jason Bartlett - 10 doubles, 1 homer, 12 SB[/QUOTE]

  7. #7
    Senior Member Triple-A DocBauer's Avatar
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    Seth, Steve and Twins, I actually find strong merit in all of you takes on projected numbers. Just a few of my own thought;

    I agree with Mauer hitting more in the .320-.325 range of his career as his legs should be stronger out from behind the plate. Healthy again, more games. I agree with the power numbers, but wouldn't be shocked if he hit around 18.

    I generally agree Hicks will be around .250ish, give or take about 5 points, with an above .300 OB. But I believe the Twins will run him more, and I think 20 plus SB should be expected, especially with a general lack of speed throughout the lineup. I also feel, while he provides some good all around ability at the bottom of the order, I could see him hitting 1 or 2 after an acclimation period. And I feel 30 Dbls or more should be expected, as well as closer to 15-16 Hr's.

    I hope Dozier's power doesn't decrease, but whether it does or not, I definitely see an upturn in Avg and OB and SB's.

    Taken as a whole, I find these numbers to be acceptable, predictable, and pretty much in line with my own. Which is very positive overall on the one hand, much better than the team's overall performance last year, and a general, potential upturn in scoring. However, the bad part of these practical expectations is Willingham and Kubel, the veteran power hitting producers that, in theory, we would like to count on in the heart of our lineup.

    IF we can take Seth's numbers for Kubel and Colabello, sandwich them together, and call them our primary DH platoon, then I feel better. (Though I have doubts as to what Kubes really has left in the tank)

    The real concern here is Willingham. He doesn't have to be the 2012 version of himself, and quite frankly probably can't be, to be effective. Just rebounding to his career norms for one more push would have him hitting about .260 with a decent OB above .300 with high 20 Dbls and about 25-26 HR's. But I'm having real doubts he's capable of reaching those numbers again. And that leaves a real hole in the heart of the lineup, potentially, not having any proven veteran run producers.

    I can't advocate trading young talent for a big bat, unless there's just someone cleaning payroll out that would make acquiring a quality producer in the 30 or younger range advantageous. And while I also don't like the idea of losing our 2nd pick in a draft where claims are made the Twins could still aquire an equivalent 1st round talent in this upcoming draft, I have to say that I really like the idea of adding Morales still.

    As an overall team, top to bottom, I feel that our biggest question mark and weakness is the 4 and 5 spot in the lineup.

  8. #8
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Physics Guy's Avatar
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    Pretty good estimates. I like somewhere between Seth and Steve for Dozier, Mauer and Hicks. If Dozier has a higher OPS than all three of Willingham, Kubel and Plouffe, we are in trouble (unless Steve is right at .790 for Dozier).

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by DocBauer View Post
    Seth, Steve and Twins, I actually find strong merit in all of you takes on projected numbers. Just a few of my own thought;

    I agree with Mauer hitting more in the .320-.325 range of his career as his legs should be stronger out from behind the plate. Healthy again, more games. I agree with the power numbers, but wouldn't be shocked if he hit around 18.

    I generally agree Hicks will be around .250ish, give or take about 5 points, with an above .300 OB. But I believe the Twins will run him more, and I think 20 plus SB should be expected, especially with a general lack of speed throughout the lineup. I also feel, while he provides some good all around ability at the bottom of the order, I could see him hitting 1 or 2 after an acclimation period. And I feel 30 Dbls or more should be expected, as well as closer to 15-16 Hr's.

    I hope Dozier's power doesn't decrease, but whether it does or not, I definitely see an upturn in Avg and OB and SB's.

    Taken as a whole, I find these numbers to be acceptable, predictable, and pretty much in line with my own. Which is very positive overall on the one hand, much better than the team's overall performance last year, and a general, potential upturn in scoring. However, the bad part of these practical expectations is Willingham and Kubel, the veteran power hitting producers that, in theory, we would like to count on in the heart of our lineup.

    IF we can take Seth's numbers for Kubel and Colabello, sandwich them together, and call them our primary DH platoon, then I feel better. (Though I have doubts as to what Kubes really has left in the tank)

    The real concern here is Willingham. He doesn't have to be the 2012 version of himself, and quite frankly probably can't be, to be effective. Just rebounding to his career norms for one more push would have him hitting about .260 with a decent OB above .300 with high 20 Dbls and about 25-26 HR's. But I'm having real doubts he's capable of reaching those numbers again. And that leaves a real hole in the heart of the lineup, potentially, not having any proven veteran run producers.

    I can't advocate trading young talent for a big bat, unless there's just someone cleaning payroll out that would make acquiring a quality producer in the 30 or younger range advantageous. And while I also don't like the idea of losing our 2nd pick in a draft where claims are made the Twins could still aquire an equivalent 1st round talent in this upcoming draft, I have to say that I really like the idea of adding Morales still.

    As an overall team, top to bottom, I feel that our biggest question mark and weakness is the 4 and 5 spot in the lineup.

    Based on the fairly rosy hitting scenarios above, replacing Kubel for Morales would be huge. The guy's always going to OPS around .800, and he has a career OPS w/RISP of .871 (2013 was .866 OPS w/RSIP). Having him in one of those middle spots changes the run producing dynamic of this team completely.

    Now you add a Drew lefty platoon bat batting up in the order in the 5th spot against RH pitchers ( ~.800 OPS) at SS/3B and then trade for a real 4th OF with either pop or speed (one example- .744 career OPS from De Aza) to leadoff close to half the games, and you have a team with chance to finish near or above the median AL in OPS (~.725-.735 vs .692 OPS in 2013) and finish above .500 in the W-L.

    They could still do this, but I understand that they won't, and that makes me a little sad, but a guy can still lobby to get better, can't he?
    Last edited by jokin; 03-31-2014 at 08:43 PM.

  10. #10
    Senior Member All-Star Badsmerf's Avatar
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    Pretty generous projections Seth. I'll do mine later, busy at the moment.
    Do or do not. There is no try.

  11. #11
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    Here is my shot at it.

    C Suzuki: .232/.285/.341 (.626), 6 HR, 0.3 WAR 92 games
    C Pinto: .290/.334/.451 (.785), 13 HR, 2.1 WAR 78 games
    1B Mauer: .328/.395/.463 (.858), 14 HR, 4.2 WAR 134 games
    1B/DH/RF Colabello:.256/.316/.425 (.741), 9 HR, 0.2 WAR, 69 games
    1B/DH/RF Parmelee: .225/.296/.340 (.636), 3 HR, -0.2 WAR, 33 games
    2B Dozier: .257/.329/.422 (.751), 17 HR, 3.1 WAR, 149 games
    SS Florimon: .225/.285/.308 (.593), 5 HR, 0.7 WAR, 135 games
    3B Plouffe: .253/.319/.425 (.744), 20 HR, 0.9 WAR, 141 games
    INF Escobar: .235/.285/.299 (.584), 1 HR, 0.0 WAR, 29 games
    INF Bartlett: .213/.268/.293 (.561), 1 HR, -0.1 WAR, 95 games
    LF Willingham: .201/.290/.376 (.666), 17 HR, 0.8 WAR, 145 games
    CF Hicks: .252/.331/.406 (.737), 16 HR, 2.5 WAR, 149 games
    RF Arcia: .279/.350/.476 (.826), 27 HR, 2.9 WAR, 153 games
    OF/DH Kubel: .200/.265/.318 (.573), 3 HR, -1.9 WAR, 111 games

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seth Stohs View Post
    I wanted to start a thread with my projections for the Twins Opening Day players. I think we'll see Chris Herrmann throughout the season, and there will be some other moves, but I just did projections for the Opening Day guys. Use this as a starting point for your own projections. Use some of the numbers as an over/under. Someone else can take a look and figure out how many runs this might mean the Twins will get.

    Let me know what you think, and feel free to get in your projections:


    Kurt Suzuki - .255/.310/.360, 20 doubles, 5 homers
    Josmil Pinto - .265/.320/.400, 20 doubles, 10 homers
    Joe Mauer - .305/.415/.485 – 45 doubles, 15 homers
    Brian Dozier - .275/.330/.400 – 35 doubles, 14 homers, 25 SB
    Trevor Plouffe - .265/.320/.430 – 25 doubles, 22 homers
    Pedro Florimon - .235/.295/.330 – 20 doubles, 8 homers, 20 SB
    Josh Willingham - .220/.310/.380 – 22 doubles, 16 homers
    Aaron Hicks – 240/.300/.390 – 28 doubles, 12 homers, 15 SB
    Jason Kubel - .250/.320/.410 – 25 doubles, 16 homers
    Oswaldo Arcia - .280/.330/.475 – 32 doubles, 27 homers
    Chris Colabello - .265/.340/.475 – 20 doubles, 12 homers
    Eduardo Escobar - .245/.290/.325 – 12 doubles, 2 homers
    Jason Bartlett - .260/.320/.320 – 10 doubles, 1 homer, 12 SB
    The only one that jumped out at me was Colabello, an OPS of .815 seems a bit high. I would love to see it though. 27 Jacks for Arcia seems a bit high. I know he had 14 in 100 games last year, but even that seemed like much higher pace than what he did in the minors.

    Love Mauers numbers. I think his hands and legs will be much stronger in the second half.
    Last edited by tobi0040; 04-01-2014 at 09:49 AM.

  13. #13
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    Thanks Seth. All of your projections are in the reach of the players potential.

    I really can't do projections that are near the accuracy of those published. I can do hopes though.

    I hope that Dozier, Plouffe, Hicks, Pinto and Arcia reach those projections. I hope they do as well or better.

    I hope Willingham and Kubel will do better. Without an OPS of 800+, they aren't trade material and probably won't get the playing time.

    Last year you had some projections that included playing time for Arcia moving two levels and an improvement from Dozier. If any are interested, projections from last year.

    http://twinsdaily.com/content.php/13...ions?#comments

  14. #14
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Steve Lein's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by LaBombo View Post

    My Debbie Downer guess is that if you took the lower prediction for each player from between your two lists, you'd come up with a set that would be a little closer to the final totals.
    You're probably right!

    I will say to those who view the projections as too optimistic: A lineup with 1 guy hitting above .280 (per both mine and Seth's lists) is a terrible lineup. (But the Twins only had 1 regular above .260 last year, so you could call it an "improvement!")
    Scouting Report: Tools - Power: 30, Hitting: 50, Arm: 60, Defense: 40, Speed: 40. "Line drive swing and shows good contact and on-base abilities. Double's power at his peak. Strong arm from 2B or the OF, stiff hands. Not a fast runner, but above average instincts on the bases. Skinny body doesn't look the part, but can sneak up on you. ACL surgery sapped much of his athleticism." (Probably)
    Spring Training Regular since 2011.

  15. #15
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    Suzuki: .260/.310/.350 (as long as he is batting in front of Mauer he will see plenty of fastballs) 8 HR's
    Pinto: .270/.320/.415, 12 HR's (He will work as a great tandem with Suzuki)
    Mauer: .320/.420/.515, 24 HR's (I'm in the fresh hands and legs category this year on Mauer. Lower average, due to power increase. Will walk a TON as only threat in lineup.)
    Dozier: .270/.335/.420, 12 HR's (Leadoff batter will have a solid season)
    Plouffe: .250/.315/.410, 14 HR's (Plouffe will struggle again! If only Sano were an option)
    Florimon: .215/.260/.315 (Escobar or Santana will be taking away AB's by early July)
    Willingham: .225/.320/.405, 16 HR's (He's done and will not stay healthy. Approx 105 games)
    Hicks: .270/.340/.430, 19 HR's (Hicks will stay in the bottom order until the Twins have no choice but to move him up to about the 5th spot. Hits .265 from the left side)
    Kubel: .210/.260/.360, 5 HR's (See Willingham. Released by June 1st)
    Arcia: .255/.330/.460, 28 HR's (Will be in the 4-hole by mid-May)
    Colabello: .290/.370/.470, 22 HR's (Due to Kubel and Willingham's poor performance and health, CC becomes the full-time DH and thrives)
    Escobar: .265/.330/.360 (Will take over at SS for Florimon. Shares late season AB's with D.Santana. )
    Bartlett: .235/.290/.300 (Bartlett greatly struggles, but manages to hang on the MLB roster all season)

    SURPRISE!!!!

    Eddie Rosario .275/.340/.440 3 HRs (starts at AA after 50 game skid and starts MASHING. Promoted to AAA and only stays 2-3 weeks as he continues to rake. Plays 30 games at MLB level. Starts in LF and backup in CF).

    Chris Parmalee - .240/.330/.460 - 17 HR's (gets called up for good when Kubel is let go. Willingham injuries force him CP into full-time duty. Hits for power but low average.)

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by LaBombo View Post
    Both lists tend to reflect predictions that players will mostly either perform basically to zips/steamer/etc. projections, or else significantly better.
    Yeah, Seth has every player except Willingham (and Escobar, marginally) improving on their 2013 OPS (or in the case of Bartlett, even his 2011 OPS). Plus Mauer bettering his career OPS, Plouffe basically matching his career high... it's all within the realm of the possible, but collectively it's not all that probable.

    Also, that team doubles total would have ranked #3 in all of MLB last year, behind only BOS and STL.

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    Quote Originally Posted by old nurse View Post
    Eyeing the hitting projections the team would look like it would OPS somewhere around .700. One graph I saw estimates it would be between 650 and 700 runs. Essentially a league average offense
    Actually AL average OPS was .725 last year. Depending on how you allocate PA, I have Seth's list at about .735.

  19. #18
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by spycake View Post
    Yeah, Seth has every player except Willingham (and Escobar, marginally) improving on their 2013 OPS (or in the case of Bartlett, even his 2011 OPS). Plus Mauer bettering his career OPS, Plouffe basically matching his career high... it's all within the realm of the possible, but collectively it's not all that probable.

    Also, that team doubles total would have ranked #3 in all of MLB last year, behind only BOS and STL.
    Let me just say that I appreciate you fact-checking these things. The hardest thing about projecting is rationalizing what individual players will do within the context of the whole team's performance. In isolation all of these projections are very reasonable and attainable, the challenge is to keep them in context to see what they do collectively to see if you're in the right ballpark.

    I'd suggest this is a borderline unattainable total result for the team to achieve, which suggests a significant portion of these projections will not come true as nicely as this.

  20. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by Steve Lein View Post
    I will say to those who view the projections as too optimistic: A lineup with 1 guy hitting above .280 (per both mine and Seth's lists) is a terrible lineup. (But the Twins only had 1 regular above .260 last year, so you could call it an "improvement!")
    Again, depending on how you allocate PA, both lists probably average to .260, which is a bit of a jump from .242!

    It's not excessively optimistic for any single player, but it's a little optimistic for pretty much everyone, which leads to being overly optimistic for the group. Kind of like the pitching projections from another thread that suggested our 7 starters would all have ERAs between 4-4.5.

    More likely, at least one person on that list will "unexpectedly" hit closer to .200, and another guy or two will lose playing time in injury to a fill-in at that level too.

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  22. #20
    TFW Brian Dozier is one of the biggest bats in your line-up.

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